Future Scenarios for the Heads of the Valleys

Kevin Morgan

School of City and Regional Planning

Cardiff University

Overview

Basic socio-economic trends

Threats and opportunities

Strategies: old v new

Scenarios: awful v hopeful

Basic socio-economic trends

Socio-economic trends show Valleys in relative decline

Valleys need to be conceived as part of a City-Region, but not a CITY-region

The trends suggest the following: The city has out-performed the Valleys

The city needs the Valleys and vice versa

The city cannot save the Valleys

The city cannot thrive if the Valleys decline

Total employment change forUK city-regions

UK City 1998 2006 Change % Change

Cardiff 150,600 190,700 40,100 26.6

Newcastle-upon-Tyne 149,000 180,500 31,500 21.1

Manchester 267,900 306,100 38,200 14.3

Leeds 365,900 417,300 51,400 14.0

Glasgow City 347,200 392,800 45,600 13.1

Liverpool 202,200 226,400 24,200 12.0

Sheffield 224,000 248,600 24,600 11.0

Edinburgh, City of 278,100 306,000 27,900 10.0

Greater London 3,764,100 3,996,600 232,500 6.2

Birmingham 469,200 491,800 22,600 4.8

Bristol 220,500 229,600 9,100 4.1

Nottingham 185,500 182,400 -3,100 -1.7

Total employment change for UK city-regions

UK City Region Geography 1998 2006 Change % Change

Bristol City Region 451,800 512,700 60,900 13.5

Newcastle City Region 441,300 499,400 58,100 13.2

Cardiff City Region 534,300 595,900 61,600 11.5

Glasgow City Region 743,900 826,300 82,400 11.1

Edinburgh City Region 552,400 607,800 55,400 10.0

Sheffield City Region 652,400 710,800 58,400 9.0

Leeds City Region 1,176,300 1,274,300 98,000 8.3

Manchester City Region 1,360,300 1,466,300 106,000 7.8

Liverpool City Region 551,100 590,300 39,200 7.1

Greater London 3,764,100 3,996,600 232,500 6.2

Birmingham City Region 1,871,100 1,945,400 74,300 4.0

Nottingham City Region 323,100 332,400 9,300 2.9

Regional hinterland share of city-region employment growth

City Region HinterlandHinterland

Employment Growth

% Share of Total

Employment Change

Nottingham City Region Hinterland 12,400 100.0

Bristol City Region Hinterland 51,800 85.1

Birmingham City Region Hinterland 51,700 69.6

Manchester City Region Hinterland 67,800 64.0

Sheffield City Region Hinterland 33,800 57.9

Edinburgh City Region Hinterland 27,500 49.6

Leeds City Region Hinterland 46,600 47.6

Newcastle City Region Hinterland 26,600 45.8

Glasgow City Region Hinterland 36,800 44.7

Liverpool City Region Hinterland 15,000 38.3

Cardiff City Region Hinterland 21,500 34.9

Population change for selected areas (%)

  1991-2001 2001 - 2005 1991 - 2005

Heads of the Valleys -6.9 -1.0 -7.9

Hearts & Mouths of the Valleys 3.4 1.8 5.3

City, Coast & Rural 3.4 1.8 5.3

South East Wales Total 0.7 1.2 1.9

Wales 1.3 1.5 2.8

United Kingdom 2.9 1.9 4.9

Commuting flows into Cardiff

Commuting flows out of Cardiff

Hidden unemployment?

Parliamentary Constituency

Incapacity Benefit claimants(May 2007)

000s% of working

Age populationRank Hi/Lo

Glasgow North East 10.14 20% 1

Liverpool Riverside 9.67 20% 2

Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney 8.28 19% 3

Rhondda 8.36 19% 4

Cynon Valley 6.68 19% 5

Manchester Blackley 8.68 19% 6

Easington 8.75 18% 7

Manchester Central 9.65 18% 8

Blaenau Gwent 7.15 18% 9

Aberavon 6.70 18% 10

Threats and opportunities

Economic threats include: high levels of economic inactivity very poor skill sets very poor connectivity very poor housing choice

Social/cultural threats include: long term limiting illness culture of low aspirations getting out/getting on

Opportunities

Major opportunities include:

low cost housing close to city/nature

outstanding natural environment

surprisingly resilient stock of social capital

lack of civil, political & religious strife

Strategies: Old problems

Absurd polarisation of state/market – public versus private conflict very acute in Wales

Confusion of means/ends – partnership (a means to an end) has been elevated into an end in itself

Collective failure – the key institutions in Wales (central and local government, business, universities etc) have failed the Valleys

Devolution dividends – limited to date by cosy and undemanding partnership between WAG and local government (symbolised by saga of performance improvement grant, paid when performance was bad)

Strategies: New opportunities

More innovative strategies needed and WHQS will test our capacity to innovate

Registered Social Landlords – these are local regeneration companies in disguise

Success will depend upon: local management skills deploying the power of purchase crafting new supply chains embedding the local pound to plug the leaky bucket

Scenario 1: The awful future

Heads of the Valleys Population Projection 2005 – 2025

Male Female Total Change % Change

Total Projection Change -19,980 -17,183 -37,163 - -11.4

Scenario 1: Age group projections

Projected Percentage Change In Population by Age Group in the

'Heads of the Valleys' Sub-Area by 2025

-6.1-8.8

-19.6-22.5

-20.5

-10.5

-14.9

-21.8

-32.7-30.9

-10.9

14.5

10.2 10.7

22.0

-8.5

-4.2

11.2

-11.4

-6.8

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

Age Group

%

Scenario 2: The hopeful future

Heads of the Valleys Population Projection 2005 – 2025

Male Female Total Change % Change

Total Projection Change -5,913 -5,886 -11,799 - -3.61%

Scenarios: awful v hopefulObserved and Projected Population Change in the

'Heads of the Valleys' from 1991 to 2025

270000

290000

310000

330000

350000

370000

1991 1996 2001 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Observed Change Scenario 1 Scenario 2

270000

290000

310000

330000

350000

370000

1991 1996 2001 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Observed Change Scenario 1 Scenario 2

270000

290000

310000

330000

350000

370000

1991 1996 2001 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Observed Change Scenario 1 Scenario 2