Future Satellite Applications and Services in Brazil and ...
Transcript of Future Satellite Applications and Services in Brazil and ...
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Future Satellite Applications and Services in Brazil and Worldwide
Blaine Curcio
Senior Analyst, NSR
Brasília, Brazil
17 September 2015
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Presentation Agenda
2º Seminário de Gestão do Espectro: Uma Visão de Futuro
17 September 2015
About NSR
The Market Today: How Much, Where, and What Kind?
Future Markets for Traditional FSS—Video Markets Remain the Key
Revenue Generators
Future Markets for GEO-HTS—Data Applications Leading the Way
Potential Future Markets for Non GEO-HTS—Bigger Pie Due to
Cheaper Slices?
Bottom Line
2nd Annual Seminar on Spectrum Management--Brasilia
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About NSR
NSR is a Global Leader in Satellite Market Research and Consulting
Founded in 2000, NSR specializes in analysis of growth
opportunities across the satellite industry
NSR’s expert consultants are located globally and possess over 140 years of combined
industry experience.
Multi-Client Reports on Various Satellite Topics
Extensive Client Research, Consulting and Advisory Services
“Holistic” approach to research enables NSR to anticipate trends with a higher
degree of confidence and precision than the competition and stay ahead of the curve.
www.nsr.com
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17 September 2015
2º Seminário de Gestão do Espectro: Uma Visão de Futuro
2nd Annual Seminar on Spectrum Management--Brasilia
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NSR features the most global presence of any satellite consulting/research company. With on the
ground regional experience in established and emerging markets, NSR’s multi-cultural and multi-lingual
team provides industry-leading telecom market research and consulting delivering unique, actionable
intelligence.
NSR: Global in Reach, Local in Knowledge
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2nd Annual Seminar on Spectrum Management--Brasilia
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The Market Today
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The Market Today—Where is the Demand?
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An Evenly Spread Pie for FSS, But GEO-HTS Remains Largely North
American
17 September 2015 2nd Annual Seminar on Spectrum Management--Brasilia
NAM 16%
WEU 11%
CEEU 11%
MENA 10%
SAM 9%
SEA 9%
EA 7%
SA 7%
SSA 7%
Other 13%
Traditional FSS Transponder Demand by Region, 2014
Source:NSR
NAM 74%
WEU 8%
SEA 6%
MENA 5%
EA 2%
SA 2%
CEEU 2%
SSA 1%
SAM 2%
Other 0%
GEO-HTS Gbps Bandwidth Demand by Region, 2014
Source:NSR
• ~25% of traditional FSS demand from NAM/WEU
• Highest growth regions remain at around 10% of the
global market each
• GEO-HTS is over 80% NAM/WEU
• Definite diversification in GEO-HTS markets moving
forward
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The Traditional FSS Market Today—Dominated by Video
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0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Traditional FSS Demand by Application, 2014
Distribution DTH Enterprise Data
Contribution & OUTV Gov/Mil Telephony & Carrier
Commercial Mobility Broadband Access Source:NSR
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Traditional FSS Demand by Application, 2014
Distribution DTH Enterprise Data
Contribution & OUTV Gov/Mil Telephony & Carrier
Commercial Mobility Broadband Access Source:NSR
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Traditional FSS Demand by Application, 2014
Distribution DTH Enterprise Data
Contribution & OUTV Gov/Mil Telephony & Carrier
Commercial Mobility Broadband Access Source:NSR
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Traditional FSS Demand by Application, 2014
Distribution DTH Enterprise Data
Contribution & OUTV Gov/Mil Telephony & Carrier
Commercial Mobility Broadband Access Source:NSR
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Traditional FSS Demand by Application, 2014
Distribution DTH Enterprise Data
Contribution & OUTV Gov/Mil Telephony & Carrier
Commercial Mobility Broadband Access Source:NSR
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Traditional FSS Demand by Application, 2014
Distribution DTH Enterprise Data
Contribution & OUTV Gov/Mil Telephony & Carrier
Commercial Mobility Broadband Access Source:NSR
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Traditional FSS Demand by Application, 2014
Distribution DTH Enterprise Data
Contribution & OUTV Gov/Mil Telephony & Carrier
Commercial Mobility Broadband Access Source:NSR
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Traditional FSS Demand by Application, 2014
Distribution DTH Enterprise Data
Contribution & OUTV Gov/Mil Telephony & Carrier
Commercial Mobility Broadband Access Source:NSR
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The GEO-HTS Market Today
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Different Offerings in Different Regions—with Different Target Markets
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Source: Eutelsat Source: Avanti
Source: YahSat
Source: Thaicom
Source: SatCom Post
Source: SatCom Resources
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The Market Tomorrow
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Future Satellite Applications—Where Is Growth At the Highest Level?
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• $6.5B in revenue growth across all types of
capacity to 2024
• Over $4B from GEO-HTS and Non GEO-HTS
• But what applications are driving future use?
Commercial Mobility
29%
Revenue Growth by Application to 2024, All Traditional FSS and HTS Capacity
Source:NSR
Commercial Mobility
29%
Broadband Access
20%
Revenue Growth by Application to 2024, All Traditional FSS and HTS Capacity
Source:NSR
Commercial Mobility
29%
Broadband Access
20% Gov/Mil 17%
Revenue Growth by Application to 2024, All Traditional FSS and HTS Capacity
Source:NSR
Commercial Mobility
29%
Broadband Access
20% Gov/Mil 17%
DTH 14%
Revenue Growth by Application to 2024, All Traditional FSS and HTS Capacity
Source:NSR
Commercial Mobility
29%
Broadband Access
20% Gov/Mil 17%
DTH 14%
Enterprise Data 12%
Revenue Growth by Application to 2024, All Traditional FSS and HTS Capacity
Source:NSR
Commercial Mobility
29%
Broadband Access
20% Gov/Mil 17%
DTH 14%
Enterprise Data 12%
Distribution 7%
Revenue Growth by Application to 2024, All Traditional FSS and HTS Capacity
Source:NSR
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Demand Growth in ALL Markets
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FSS Demand (C, Ku, Ka) spread out fairly evenly
GEO-HTS demand to see significant demand from NAM, WEU, and SEA
(NBN), but South America will lead all other regions
Non GEO-HTS not included above
FSS + 90 TPEs
HTS + 814 Gbps
FSS + 50 TPEs
HTS + 25 Gbps
FSS + 54 TPEs
HTS + 95 Gbps
FSS + 123 TPEs
HTS + 126 Gbps
FSS + 102 TPEs
HTS + 38 Gbps
FSS + 204 TPEs
HTS + 33 Gbps
FSS + 106 TPEs
HTS + 28 Gbps
FSS & GEO-
HTS Demand
Growth to 2024
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NAM
CAMCB
SAM
WEU
MENA
CEEU
SSA
SA
EA
SEA
FSS + 220 TPEs
HTS + 129 Gbps
FSS + 104 TPEs
HTS + 24 Gbps
FSS + 197 TPEs
HTS + 52 Gbps
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Commercial Mobility—Aero & Maritime Leading the Way
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• Mobility applications to contribute nearly $2B in
new revenues by 2024
• In-flight connectivity has been a huge hit, and the
ceiling is a long way to go
• Crew welfare, asset monitoring, and M2M are
driving maritime, helping contribute strong C-
band demand as well as higher frequency bands
Traditional FSS Revenues
$620
30%
GEO/Non GEO-HTS Revenues
$1,446
70%
Commercial Mobility Global Revenue Growth, 2014-2024
Source:NSR
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BYOD: Fueling Mobility SATCOM Revenues
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By 2023, $5 out of $10 in Retail Mobility Revenues will be from the Maritime Market,
7 out of 10 In-service Units will be on Land, and
9 out of 10 Terminals
will be L-band.
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Enterprise Data—VSATs, Backhaul, & Trunking
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• Biggest revenue increases to come from
GEO-HTS
• Part EpicNG migration, but largely
new demand
• Big opportunities in emerging markets
for VSAT and Backhaul and Trunking,
with Video Offload remaining a
wildcard
C-band -$318.1M
Ka-band $89.8
Ku-band $247.9
Non-GEO $349.2
GEO-HTS $493.9
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
US
$ M
illio
ns
Enterprise Data Revenue Change by Capacity Type, 2014-2024
• Total HTS Revenue increase:
$843M
• Total Traditional FSS Revenue
increase: $18M
-
40.0
80.0
120.0
160.0
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Re
ve
nue
s ($
millio
ns)
In-s
erv
ice
Units
Global Video Offload via Satellite Market
In-service Units Revenues Source : NSR Source : NSR Source:NSR
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Gov/Mil—PrideSats Increasing their Presence
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• Gov/Mil continues to
be uncertain
• Budget cuts, shorter-
term contracts, but
optimism on the
horizon
• Shorter-term
contracts=higher
revenues and higher
per bit pricing
• Evolution of end user
requirements
Country Project Timeframe
United States, Denmark,
Netherlands, Australia, and others
WGS—widebeam Ka-band network
of satellites for Gov/Mil use
2007-current
Brazil SGDC-1—GEO-HTS payload to be
used for military & USO/broadband
purposes
2016--
Japan 2x X-band military payloads 2016--
Italy/France ATHENA-FIDUS 2014--
Italy Sicral-1B—payload also leased to
Poland
2009--
Turkey Göktürk-3 2016--
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DTH Markets—Growth from Multiple Fronts
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• Content is king
• UHD to push up revenues in developed regions, and
potentially serve as a differentiator for developing
markets
• Indian growth story is slowing markedly, lots of
inactives and low ARPUs. Does this bode poorly for
other markets?
Source: The Guardian
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Broadband Markets—More than Just North America
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• Broadband via Satellite becoming viable in more
regions
• Price remains the biggest stumbling block—not many
developing countries offer sufficient ARPUs for
business cases—this could potentially be removed
with a LEO-HTS constellation targeting broadband,
such as OneWeb, SpaceX Constellation, LeoSat,
etc.
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HTS Business Model Discussion
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2014: Seeing Some Transition
Commercial Mobility - $0.4B
• Cream on Top?
• More than Just Bandwidth?
Government & Military - $1.3B
• “Glory Days” Behind Us?
• More Conflicts = More Revenues?
“Data Services” - $2.9B
• Can You Hear Me Yet?
• Internet for all?
Video - $8.3B
• Watching “the Big Game”?
• More Homes?
2014 Capacity Revenues for FSS & HTS
64 %
23 %
10 %
3 %
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From Cream & Sugar – to Bigger Cups & Lattes
2014
64%
23%
10 %
3 %
2019
59 %
24 %
10 %
7%
2024
50 %
25 %
13 %
12 %
Capacity R
evenues
$13B
$16B
$20B
“Traditional Markets” to Data-Centric Plays The crème on top is where the new opportunities come from
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GEO & Non GEO-HTS: Establishing New Markets and New Opportunities
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“ViaSat and Eutelsat enter first-of-a-kind agreement to
link High Capacity Ka-band Satellite Networks
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Where Will GEO-HTS Revenues be Generated?
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Aero Enterprise VSAT
Backhaul Consumer Broadband
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Maritime Military Energy Video?
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System Orbit Launch Date Years to Launch Satellites Bit Rate Throughput (Gbps) Services
Iridium LEO 1991 2.5-3** 72+ Low N/A Telephony, Data
Globalstar LEO 1991 2.5-3** 52+ Low N/A Telephony, Data
Orbcomm LEO 1993 3*** 30+ Low N/A Data
ICO MEO 1995 2 10+ Low N/A Telephony, Data
Skybridge LEO 1998 N/A 80+ High N/A Data
Teledesic LEO 1990s N/A 280+ High N/A Data
O3b MEO 2007 2 12-20 High 80-360 Data, Backhaul
OneWeb LEO 2018-19 3** 640-2,400 High 6,000 Data, Backhaul
SpaceX LEO 2019-20 3** 4,000+ High 8,000+? Data, Backhaul
COMMStellation LEO 2015? 2-3** 75+ High? N/A Data
Ximwei LEO 2019? N/A 30+ High? N/A Data, Voice?
LeoSat LEO 2018-2019 2-3** 80-120 High? 1,000-2,000
Laser Light MEO 2018 N/A 8 High? N/A Data
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HTS and Constellations – Past, Present & Future
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• Even one constellation needs more launcher capability than is available right now
• Any constellations will result in “Bubble for Backhaul" more than other user segments
• Will the “Iridium of Broadband” follow its predecessor
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Non GEO-HTS Market Assessment—2019 as an Inflection Point
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• Pricing to be negatively impacted
by 2019 supply glut—particularly
in Enterprise Data
• Non GEO-HTS to target
broadband specifically, and to
generate around $500M of
revenues by 2024
• “If you build it, they will come”, but
is it a profitable business case?
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
US
$ M
illio
ns
Global Revenues for Leased Non-GEO-HTS Bandwidth by Application
Distribution DTH Contribution & OUTV Telephony & Carrier
Enterprise Data Broadband Access Commercial Mobility Gov/Mil
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GEO-HTS – Cannibalization or Growing the Pie?
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
US
D M
illio
ns
Thaicom Revenues, 2006-2014
Traditional FSS Revenue IPSTAR Revenue Source : NSR
IPSTAR is taking a larger share…..
….of a bigger pie
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Bottom Line
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Bottom Line
17 September 2015 2nd Annual Seminar on Spectrum Management--Brasilia
• GEO-HTS will provide the best opportunities to create new markets moving
forward, frequency reuse unlocks new markets through increased bandwidth
efficiency.
• Traditional FSS to see demand increase incrementally in some areas, though
overall much more limited opportunities
• O3b business case continues to pick up steam, with entry of a potential LEO-HTS
constellation looming in the medium-term
• Overall, around $6.5 billion in new revenue by 2024, for a CAGR of around 3.5%.
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Questions?
Blaine Curcio, Senior Analyst
September 17, 2015
Northern Sky Research, LLC, 1000 N. West St. Suite 1200 Wilmington, DE 19801 Phone: 302-295-4981 | Fax: 302-295-4801
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