Future Proof:
Top Ten Trends
2010-2020

By
Kurt Cagle

Kurt Cagle

Author of eighteen books on web technologies and systems analysis

Industry Analyst

Managing Editor, xmlToday.org

kurt.cagle@gmail.com

@kurt_cagle on Twitter

Top Ten Trends of the 2010s

Generations

Petroleum OS Ends

The Great
Dis-Integration

Smart Grid OS

Virtualization

The New Media

Open Data/Open Govt

The Emergent Education Era

Bio-informatics

Hyper-Presence

Generations

Each generation establishes an indelible footprint on a given era,

A generation is both influenced by the preceding generations and influences the following generations

The exact boundaries of generations are seldom clear cut think of a generation as aggregate behaviors.

Baby Boomers (1944-1962)

Leading edge now retiring (65 in 2009)

Fixed income outflows shrinking economy

Will place heavy demand on social services

Most heavily impacted by the Great Recession

Relocation into cities and near-suburbs smaller houses or condos, city services

Will form bulk of the volunteer economy moving forward.

GenXers (1963-1981)

Becoming primary policy leaders, entrepreneurs and authorities

Architects of the Web, technical/engineering oriented, focused on standards and code

Independent libertarians or civil libertarians,
live agile methodologies

Distrustful of large institutions

Will have the biggest stamp on the technical foundation of the next decade

Millennials (1982-2000)

First social media generation

Nearly as large as Boomers (Echo Boomers)

Very entrepreneurial

More likely to be involved in communication/media

Concerned about transparency of gov't & business.

Mashup generation

Environmentally sensitive

Virtuals (2001-2019)

Smaller generation than GenXers

The Google Generation information is pervasive and immediately accessible

Hyper-connected always communicating

First post-corporate generation

Systemic thinkers

NeoTribalists

The Petroleum Operating System

The Energy production and distribution system can be thought of as an economy's Operating System

The Petroleum OS is now 150 years old, and dictates transportation, power generation, urban infrastructure development, financial systems, food production, political organization, education, marketing and media and nearly everything else.

The Petroleum Operating System is crashing ...

Peak Oil The End of Cheap Oil

Cost to produce energy exceeds energy value

Global Oil Peak - 2007?

Demand Still Growing

Max Prod: 85 Mbls/d

Trough Oil: Everything from here gets harder

Energy Shocks

Energy Shock CycleEconomy Improves, Increases Demand

Demand Increases Price, Fixed or Falling Supply

Price Reaches a Peak, Dragging on the Economy

Economy Crashes, Price Plummets

Cycles increasing in frequency, severity

Gluts Become Smaller, Shortages Longer

Average Price Through Cycle Increasing

Petroleum OS and Credit

Credit derives from energy/resource reserves, which cannot consistently meet demand

Without guaranteed reserves, credit dries up.

Without credit, businesses are forced into cash accrual model, with higher exposed risk.

Most mega-corporations are built with leveraged credit; as credit recedes, they disaggregate.

2010-2020 is the Great Dis-integration.

The Smart Grid Era

Decade will mark transition to the Smart Grid era.

Smart Grid merging electrical production grid with societal information networks

Smart Grid supports localized, sustainable energy production, with intelligent creation, transmission & storage of power.

Consumers become prosumers, with those contributing to the grid gaining most benefit.

Smart Grid as Open OS?

Petroleum OSProprietary

Centralized

Forces Segmentation

Vendor Lock-in

High Barrier to Entry

Forced Upgrades

Benefits Producers

Smart Grid OSOpen Access

Decentralized

Enables Open Standards

Competitive Cooperation

Low Barrier to Entry

Allows for Versioning

Benefits Users, Prosumers

Smart Grid Economy

Smart Grid economy is emergent (bottom up)

Communities seek energy independenceThose that don't face unreliable power
(worse than no power, in many respects)

Smart Grid standardization insures that as a community comes online, it can connect to grid

Smart Grids allow community participation, and community member renumeration

Smart Grid and the Internet

The Smart Grid is the next stage of the Internet, and will build out in much the same way the web did

As such SG becomes an overlay of networks:Energy, Messaging, Data Abstraction, Application, Social Media, Financial Services, Resource Distribution, Governmental Services

Electrical standardization moves transportation onto the Smart Grid as well.

Adapting Transportation Grid

Electric cars (though car use declines, generally)

High speed rail replaces air travel, save for light air craft

Light rail, e-busses, trolleys re-emerge

Trucking remains but becomes more local

Shipping favors rail, wind-driven ships

Most vehicles are hybrids oil provides extra power, but is not prime motive power.

Alt-Energy

Bio-fuelsAlgae, Yeast, Hemp, Sawgrass, Bio-wastes

Requires Genetically Engineered Agents & Enzymes

Solar photo-Voltaics3rd Gen pVs, Flexible pV Membranes, Photosynthesis, Supercapacitors,
Beamed Microwave Energy

Thermal Gradient Systems

Kinetic SystemsHigh Altitude Kites, Water Snakes

SGOS & Society

SGOS fosters city-state hubs; power shifts away from national back towards municipal level.

Physical manufacturing relocalizes, virtual manufacturing (software and services) globalizes

Management & marketing lose influence, technical/creative gain influence.

Corporations are either physical, local and persistant or virtual, distributed and transient (or both). In all cases, they're small.

Virtualization

The rendering of physical entities as software

Cloud - the virtualization of hardware

Software as a Service - the virtualization of
stand-alone applications as sets of web service streams

Next big wave is virtualization of data, with the web as collections of read/write databasesThis concept is intrinsic to RESTful Services

Virtualization and SGOS

Virtualization moves up the stack

Virtualization of government occurs as governmental functions become exposed as services in the noosphere

Virtualization of the media is already underway.

Virtualization of education is happening as the POS educational system collapses.

Each replaces top-down hierarchical systems with bottom-up distributed systems.

Search, Services & Semantics

We are switching from process oriented applications to resource oriented (RESTful) ones

Introduces a search/query oriented view of the web.

Search services will retrieve collections of links to resources, packaged in various forms.

Update services will activate messaging actions based upon publishing of content.

Computational semantics will drive both search and publishing.

Social Media

Social Media makes all human experiences virtually participatory, before, during and after the fact.

Social Media is absorbing gaming, conferencing, education, training and entertainment.

Social Media platforms will continue to emerge, eclipsing older platforms and services.

Social Media will also be foundation of Augmented Reality

NeoJournalism

PaleoJournalismNews is scarce

High barrier to entry

Professional journalists

Editor provides gateway function

Branding is key

Advertising driven

NeoJournalismNews is ubiquitous

Low barrier to entry

Domain expert as journalist

Community provides
filtering function

Search/Word of Mouth

Ancillary services driven

Open Data / Open Gov't

Next Stage of Web Web as Database

Orgs will expose both public data services and data editors via REST, XML and JSON

Gov't Big Data Standards NIEM Framework

Semantic Web Matures: RDF/OWL & Linked Data

Businesses improve transparency via XBRL

Everything becomes (somewhat) intelligent

Education's Failing Grade

Existing 19th/20th century education infrastructure disintegratesFunding collapses due to credit shock, fuel prices, reduced tax base and demographics

Educational systems fail to deliver competent graduates for information economy

Centralized curricula removes flexibility, targets generation of mediocrity.

Kids becoming idiot savants knowledge at their fingertips, but with few tools to analyse it.

Rethinking Education

Online education webs may provide
communities of learning

Distance learning decouples teaching from location

Education becomes life-long activity

Social education becomes biggest issue

2010s will see an explosion of alt-education forms

Teachers, like journalists, will be the next professionals to face amateurization, to be replaced by guides, mentors and quisitors.

Hyper Awareness &
Augmented Reality

Geo-informatics becomes pervasive

Wearable computing comes of ageLocation/topicality channels create a where web

Financial transactions become transparent

Motion aware overlays enable in-place virtual worlds

People rent their lives vicariously.

Percentage of people who live and/or work in virtual worlds exceeds 30% by 2020

Bio-Informatics

Electronic Health Records become Open Data

Standardization leads to bottom up revolution

Disintegration of private insurance monopolies in US

XML Based EHRs create distributed web, another part of the Smart Grid

Epidemiology, emergency response merge with Smart Grid (via US National Information Exchange Model, or NIEM)?

Summary

Institutional society will dis-integrate over the next twenty years.

What replaces it will be distributed, emergent, virtual, communal, highly participatory and metaphorical.

Declining resources and over-stressed ecosystems will increase conflict globally, but will also hasten the transition to sustainable models

These changes will come from the bottom up.

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