Future Projections of Recurrent Tidal Flooding...2015 El Nino Pattern: 33-200% Tidal Flood Increase...
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Future Projections of Recurrent Tidal Flooding NOAA Science Days March 9, 2016 Dr. William Sweet NOAA Oceanographer
Transcript of Future Projections of Recurrent Tidal Flooding...2015 El Nino Pattern: 33-200% Tidal Flood Increase...
Future Projections of Recurrent Tidal Flooding
NOAA Science DaysMarch 9, 2016
Dr. William Sweet NOAA Oceanographer
Coastal communities need to know what to expect
Tidal flood projections can assist community planning (e.g., budgeting for short/long term solutions).
Annual tidal-flood projections (this work) recognize:• long trends (linear or accelerating) from local sea level rise• compounding El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns
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“Nuisance” Tidal Flood
ing
(Days p
er Year)
Sweet et al. (2014)
Nuisance Tidal Flood Trends: 300-900% increase since 1960
NOAA gauges since 1950 reveal concerning trends (linear and accelerating) in tidal flooding.
El Niño Pattern: More West & East Coast Tidal Flooding
West Coast: High sea levels for months increase the reach of storms and tides
East Coast:More NE winds, storms and surges
Eastern Region El Niño Impacts &Outlook: October 2015
2015 El Nino Pattern: 33-200% Tidal Flood Increase Projected
0
5
10
15
20
Nui
sanc
e Ti
dal F
lood
s(D
ays
per Y
ear)
Location 14: Norfolk, VA
Historic
1982/821986/87
1991/92
1997/98 2009/10
0
5
10
15
20
Nui
sanc
e Ti
dal F
lood
s(D
ays
per Y
ear)
Location 14: Norfolk, VA
Historic Poly. (Historic)Trend (Quadratic)
1982/821986/87
1991/92
1997/98 2009/10 2015 Projection
125% increase
2015 Outlook: Number of Days with a Nuisance Tidal FloodBased upon trend (and % increase from El Nino pattern)
Montauk(100%)
Sandy Hook (48%)
Atlantic City (33%)Lewes
(71%)
Baltimore(47%)
Washington D.C.(66%)
Norfolk (125%)
Wilmington(44%)
La Jolla(67%)
San Francisco(75%)
San Diego(44%)
Los Angeles(70%)
Monterey(106%)
Alameda(200%)
Sweet and Marra (2015)
2015 Outlook (May 2015 – April 2016) issued in summer of 2015
2015 Nuisance Tidal Flood Days To Date(May 2015 – Feb 29, 2016)
Below “Trend/El Niño” Projection
Above “Trend/Niño” Projection
All time record
Sweet et al. (In Prep)
All time record (no Trend/ENSO projection)
• Tidal flooding during the 2015/16 El Niño has already surpassed projections and broke records.
• El Niño will likely become more frequent in the future, compounding impacts (in addition to sea level rise).
• NOAA is advancing a national recurrent-flood information system and local dashboards to:
deliver flood-frequency projections track impact indicators & their frequency changes
to enhance resiliency within coastal communities.
In Summary:
