Future of Renewable Energy The...
Transcript of Future of Renewable Energy The...
Future of Renewable Energy
Gary CalabreseVice President, Science & TechnologyDirector, Photovoltaic TechnologiesCorning Incorporated
The World
Symposium on the Global Energy FutureWashington University in St. LouisOctober 1st 2010
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The global challenge
• Heating up the planet• Burning away our fossil fuels
and chemical feedstock
• Slow or stop heating up the planet• Preserve fossil fuels for making drugs,
plastics, semiconductor chips, paints, cars, planes, boats, iPads and just about everything we touch
Today15 TW Demand
205030+ TW Demand
Source: A. Cho, Science 329, 786-787 (2010). IEA estimates for Solar, Biomass and Hydroelectric are 2x-4x these numbers. Lewis & Nocera estimates in PNAS Perspective, 2006 are similar to those above except for Solar, which they estimate at 800 TW practical.
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A game the whole world must play
=
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Key messages
• The world must move to renewable energy sources, only question is how fast
• The challenge is big• The global transition will be similar to wood fossil fuels:
slow, but profound• We will likely have a patchwork of technologies just as we do
today• Solar will be a major player• The “call to action” is clear: innovate
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Renewable sources have enough power
Biomass9 TW
Wind20 TW
Hydro1.6 TW
Geothermal3.8 TW
Estimated practically available power
Source: A. Cho, Science 329, 786-787 (2010). IEA estimates for Solar, Biomass and Hydroelectric are 2x-4x these numbers. Lewis & Nocera estimates in PNAS Perspective, 2006 are similar to those above except for Solar, which they estimate at 800 TW practical.
2010WorldDemand15 TW
Solar>50 TW
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World marketed energy use by fuel type, 1990-2035
0
50
100
150
200
250
Year
Qua
drill
ion
Btu
But adoption will take a long time
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) - International Energy Outlook 2010, July 2010
Oil
CoalNatural gas
Renewables
Nuclear
History Projections
1990 2007 2035202520152000
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Energy problem = water problem…
Source: DOE, AWEA and A. Cho, Science 329, 786-787 (2010)
Hydroelectric4.5 gal
Geothermal1.4 gal
SolarThermal
1 gal
Coal0.5 gal
Nat. Gas0.2 gal
Oil0.4 gal
Nuclear0.7 gal
PV & Wind0 gal
Biomass95 gal
Water Consumption, gallons/kW-hr
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… and CO2 emission problem …
Sources: *de Wild‐Scholten, M., presented at CrystalClear Final Event in Munich on May 26, 2009. **de Wild‐Scholten, M., ‘Solar as an environmental product: Thin‐film modules – production processes and their environmental assessment,’ presented at the Thin Film Industry Forum, Berlin, April, 2009. Both PV technologies use insolation of 1700 kWh/m2. All other data from ExternE project, 2003; Kim and Dale, 2005; Fthenakis and Kim, 2006: Fthenakis and Alsema, 2006; Fthenakis and Kim, in press. First Solar
Car
bon
foot
prin
t(g
CO
2-eq
/kW
h)
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…and land use problem
Source: Spitzley et al, U. Mich. Ctr. For Sustainable Systems (2004); Electricity from Renewable Resources, NAS 2010; DOE and A. Cho, Science 329, 786-787 (2010)
Biomass 675,000 acres
Wind 132,000 acres
Land needed to power San Jose, California
San Jose, CA115,000 acres
Solar 19,000 acresNuclear 11,000 acres
Coal 9,500 acresHydroelectric 3,300 acresNatural Gas 800 acres
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A small area can supply all our needs
Source: NREL
Light reaching the ground in 1 hour is enough to power the world for 1 year
Area needed to supply all U.S. electricity @ 10%
efficiency
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One Winner? Unlikely
Different applications need different batteries
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Why solar?
• Huge practical potential
• Land use reasonable
• Not a “water hog”
• Much “innovation headroom” for lowering cost
• Has strong “emotional” public support
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Governments have put PV on a fast track
Feed-in-tariff driving growth in Germany, Italy, Czech Republic, France, China and Canada
14.5 F
PV
Dem
and,
GW
Germany
USJapanSpain
ROW
5.4
2.91.71.5
7.0
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• Direct costs of solar components and systems
• Intermittency and geographic variability of sunshine creates added cost to store and distribute solar power
PV has 3 simple priorities going forward: 1. Cost, 2. Cost, and 3. Cost
Panel manufacturingCosts
Balance of systems (BOS) components and installation costs
Maintenance & End-of-life replacement costs
+ +
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Three key approaches for PV
Concentrator(~3%)
Thin Film(~19%)
Lower costby reducing
semiconductorcontent
Silicon(~78%)
front
back
Semiconductor
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$2
$3
$4
$6
$8
$20
0.001 0.01 0.1
Cumulative Production in Gigawatt (GWp)
Mod
ule
Pric
es ($
/Wat
t p)
$1/Wp at ~20 GWp
$1/Wp at >100 GWp
Thin film
Polysilicon shortage
Polysilicon price drop
Crystalline Silicon
Sources: EPIA, EIA, NREL, First Solar, Photovoltaics World and Corning analysis
Module Prices vs. Cumulative Production
PV is on a “Moore’s Law” type learning curve for cost
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Low cost has enabled thin film PV to grow fastP
V D
eman
d G
W
CrystallineSilicon
Thin Film
TF % 0 5% ~10% ~20% ~20%
CrystallineSilicon
Thin Film
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Conversion efficiency has been the big game
Source:NREL
First Solar took 20% ofPV Market in 5 yrs with this technology
Many betting on this as long- term winner as manufacturing costs come down
Underdog comingon strong!
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Key messages
• The world must move to renewable energy sources, only question is how fast
• The challenge is big• The global transition will be similar to wood fossil fuels:
slow, but profound• We will likely have a patchwork of technologies just as we do
today• Solar will be a major player• The “call to action” is clear: innovate
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A bit about Corning innovations
Processes for mass producing the television bulb
19471879
Glass envelope for Thomas Edison’s light bulb
1915
Heat-resistant Pyrex® glass
First low-loss optical fiber
1970 1984
AMLCD glass for TVs, notebook computers & monitors
1972
Dow Corning silicones
1934
Glass ceramics
1952 2006
Specialty glass for NASA space missions
Fusion drawprocess
1960
Ceramic substrates for automotive catalytic converters
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Innovation: a thin specialty glass for three top thin-film PV technologies to boost absolute efficiency by 2% or more
Technology Value
Improved efficiency = more watts/panel
Lower mfg cost
CdTeSuperstrate
• Thin films can be grown at higher temperatures to get higher efficiency cells
• Fewer impurities from the glass
• Thinner glass can be run faster through the manufacturing line
CIGSSubstrate
• Thin films can be grown at higher temperatures to get higher efficiency cells
• Optimized sodium delivery to semiconductor
• Controlled impurities from substrate
• Thinner glass can be run faster through the manufacturing line
Si Tandem Superstrate
• Light trapping increases photon absorption by silicon layers
• Thinner µc-Si layer means shorter manufacturing process and less equipment
µc-Si
a-Sireflector
back TCOmetal
Window Glass
Specialty glassMfg Film Growth
Mfg Film Growth
Window Glass
Specialty glass
Mfg Film Growth
Specialty glass
Window Glass
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+2% allows module makers to increase wattage of their “lights”, make more money, and accelerate growth
Window glass Corning glass Gain
10% 12% 2%pts+20%
72 W 86 W 14 W+20%
Today’s module Tomorrow’s HE module
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+2% is BIG over the life of a PV power plant
World’s Largest PV PlantOlmedilla PV Park, Spain
60 MWp rating
Production: 85 GW-hr/year
+2%Efficiency
(absolute)
Production: 102 GW-hr/year
72 MWp
Extra 17 GW-hr/year worth $77 million over 25 years(17 GW x $0.18 / kWh x 25 years)
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Thin is reliable: 0.7 mm specialty glass passes the hail impact test…
• 0.7mm laminated to 3.2mm
• 25 mm diameter ice ball
• 23 m/sec velocity
Hail impact testing at Corning R&D Center(25 - 44 mm ice ball testing capability)
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…and can take 115 mph winds
1300 x 1100 mm modules• 1.1 mm thin glass • EVA• 3.2 mm tempered SLG• Adhesive rail supports
1200 x 600 mm modules• 0.7 mm thin glass• EVA• 3.2 mm tempered SLG• Clip supports
Exposures
• 184 km/h peak (115 mph)
• 130 km/h mean (81 mph)
• Upwind & downwind
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Light trapping glass has delivered world-record 11.9% efficiency for silicon tandem thin film cells
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Summary• World must move to renewable energy sources
• Renewables can generate enough power to meet our needs
• PV has tremendous potential because there is still much room for innovation to get costs down much further
• Innovation in glass substrates has enabled the LCD HDTV revolution of the past decade, and will do the same for PV in the next