Future of Prepress, Printing and Publishing
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Transcript of Future of Prepress, Printing and Publishing
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The Future of Prepress, Printing
and Publishing
Thad McIlroyPresident, Arcadia House
Program Director, Seybold Seminars
Presentation to Prepress 2000
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Print is %?*@#*!!
(Expletive deleted!)
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“I paint what I see, child.”
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The State of Our Union
The good news The bad news Scenarios moving forward What is to be done?
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My Pedigree is Print
5 years as a bookseller; 8 years as a publisher
A decade writing books and articles Fifteen years studying the intersection of
technology and print publishing 4 years with Seybold Seminars
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You missed…
The great S&L investment opportunities…
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You missed…
The magic that was junk bonds…
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t
Not to worry…
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Now Presenting
Internet
Junk Stocks
They’re worth only pennies,but you can make millions!
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The Starting Point
We’ve heard a lot about how the Internet is supposed to
challenge print…
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T
But with the economy booming, it was beginning to
look like a false alarm…
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T
…still, we wondered…
Could print be in more troublethan most people assume?
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The Seybold Study
Five editors and researchers Working for the last six months
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The Evidence is Conclusive
Printing and publishing aregoing to be just fine,thank you very much!
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There’s Lots of Good News
Paper sales are at record levels Envelope sales reach new highs Direct mail volume is soaring Printing sales strong Great profit reports from newspaper
publishers
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Direct Mail
The mail formerly know as Junk
Now 44% of all mail handled by the post office (vs. 32 % in 1978)
Average compound growth rate, 1992-1997, 8.4%
Projected to grow to 8.6% through 2002
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The Bad NewsThe Bad News
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The Prepress Business
Shrinking prices Shrinking margins Printers grabbing a piece of the pie Product confusion
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The Printing Business
Double-digit real growth prior to 1988 Mostly below 5% growth in the 90s Slow to negative growth since 1997 Sales grew .5% is Q3 ’99 (NAPL) Print production hours shrank by 2.3%
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Annual OutputPrinting & Publishing
(Data: Federal Reserve Board)
0
50
100
150
Out
put (
1992
= 1
00)
1987
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Magazine Readership
In 1998:
15 magazines gained 18 million “adult impressions”
144 magazines lost 79 million impressions
Audiences shrank by 5.9% in one year– Leo Burnett’s Starcom Media Buying Unit
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Magazine Readership (II)
Hours Spent Per MonthInternet Magazines
1999 97 812003 192 78
– Veronis, Suhler & Associates
Adults cut a ½ hour from their weekly reading time from 1998 to 1999 (Mediamark Research)
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Newspaper Readership (I)
“Did you read a newspaper yesterday?”
80% “YES” in 1961
58% “YES” in 1999
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Newspaper Readership (II)
Latest six month figures:
March/99 Sept./99
Daily -.5% -.7%
Sunday -1% -.7% – Audit Bureau of Circulations
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Newspaper Readership (III)
57.9% of all adults ready a daily newspaper
But only 44.6 percent of young adults (18-34)
– Audit Bureau of Circulations
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Ad Spending
“Over the next five years, the Internet will siphon $27 billion, or 10 percent of all US ad spending, away from traditional forms of media.”
– Forrester Research, 8/99
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Internet Ads in Print Media Were a Blip
“Fattening the Lamb for Slaughter”
Dot.com fatigue A survey of 1,734 online buyers found
that 25% could not remember a single Internet advertisement
– Active Research 1999 Holiday Shopping Survey
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Book Sales
Consumer Adult Book Purchasing
Consumers purchased fewer books in 1998 than they did the year prior
…the first time that the industry posted a year-to-year decline in the demand for books.
– The Book Industry Study Group
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Industry Impact
“By 2002, due to stagnant print revenue and changes in readership patterns, more than 50 percent of the 1998 traditional publishers in the OECD will be acquired or will cease publishing.”
– Gartner Group(OECD - Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development )
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OECD Publishing Revenue by Segment: 1998 - 2002
ConsumerPrint
Newspapers BusinessPrint
Internet
Source: Gartner Group(OECD - Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development )
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Scenarios
Politics Environment Society Technology Economics
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Scenarios
What We Know
Politics…no big change Environment…all quiet for now Society…aging population; slow shifts Technology…advancing rapidly Economics…longest boom ever
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Consumers Opt for More Control Over Media (I)
Advertising-supported media (ASM)Broadcast television, radio, daily newspapers,
consumer magazines
Consumer-supported media (CSM)Cable television, recorded music, consumer
books, home video, movies, video games, the Internet
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Consumers Opt for More Control Over Media (II)
Hours Lost or Gained 1994- 1999 2002
ASM -10.20% -10.30%
CSM 43.20% 30.70%
– Veronis, Suhler & Associates
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The Youth Demographic
Ages 16-24
Watch TV 84% 2.1 hours
Listen to radio 84% 2.4 hours
Read newspaper 54% .5 hours
Read magazine 42% .8 hours
— Defense Manpower Data Center, 1997
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The Youth Demographic (II)
Ages 9 -17
63 percent prefer the Internet to TV 55 percent prefer the Internet to the
telephone for communicating — Roper Starch, Nov. 1999
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The Youth Demographic (III)
Percent Online
Teens 13-19 41%
20-29 years 31%
30-39 years 33%
40-49 years 30%
— Roper Reports Worldwide
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Scenarios
Where We Could Go…
Politics…Internet backlash Environment…increased concern Society…youth revolution, not evolution Technology…all barriers removed Economics…the boom ends
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Conclusion
Most 3-5 year scenarios show a continued gradual shift away from print
But as soon as we face a significant U.S. economic disruption…
The pulp is going to hit the fan
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T
What Is to Be Done?
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The Printing Industry
“The commercial printing industry is mature, fragmented and highly competitive, and is therefore characterized by narrow profit margins. In addition, printers face increasing demands from customers for tighter deadlines, better and more consistent color quality, shorter print runs and greater customization of print jobs.”
— Creo Products Inc.,IPO Prospectus, May 14, 1999
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Print Recommendations
The bloom is off consolidation’s rose Specialization pays Digital printing offers growth and profits Web-enabled e-commerce Move towards increased automation
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Newspapers
“Of the 100 most-visited Web sites, zero were run by newspapers. Zero.”
— NewsInc.,quoting a PC Data report,
July 5, 1999
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Magazines
The Lesson of Ziff-Davis/Softbank
Sell the magazines for half of what you bought them for
Keep the Web site & the trade shows
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Designers/Ad Agencies
Design across media Leverage the Web Control assets & digital workflow
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The Lesson for All of Us
With apologies to Waylon Jennings and Willie Nelson
Mammas Don’t Let Your Babies
Grow Up To Be Printers