Future of Mobility - Precision Metalforming Association€¦ · Future of Mobility: Disruptive...

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Future of Mobility: Disruptive Technologies Create New Realities

Transcript of Future of Mobility - Precision Metalforming Association€¦ · Future of Mobility: Disruptive...

Future of Mobility:Disruptive Technologies Create New Realities

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About Plante Moran

94Years serving

clients(founded in

1924)

20Years on

FORTUNE’s Best Workplace

list

39,000Professionals

worldwide

2,500+Manufacturing &

distribution clients

Comprehensive Services

Audit and AccountingTax Compliance and ConsultingStrategy and Operations ConsultingInformation Technology ConsultingCyber SecurityTransaction Advisory ServicesHuman Capital Government & Infrastructure Wealth ManagementLife InsuranceInvestment Banking (PM Corporate Finance)Real Estate Development (Plante Moran

CRESA)3,000+In U.S.

Automotive Intelligence

CenterResearch on

Critical Automotive

Technologies to Suppliers

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Case Study: Disruptive Technology

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Where is the Automotive Industry Going? Megatrends to Understand

2 Mobility

1 Autonomy

3 Electrification

4 Manufacturing the Vehicle

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AutonomyDefining the Levels of Autonomy (0-5)

0 1 2 3 4 5

No assistance Assisted Partially automated

Conditionally automated

Fully automated Autonomous

Human Transfer of responsibility Current

Machine2025-20302020-2024

Human driver in control of all aspects of driving

Driverassistanceof 1 system steering or acceleration/

deceleration . Driver Responsible for monitoring environment and all other

drivingtasks

systems , both steeringand acceleration/ deceleration .

Driver Responsible for monitoringenvironmentand

allotherdrivingtasks

Driver assistance of 2 or more Automation of 2 or more Drivingsystems . Machine will monitor

environmentandrequesthuman intervention whenneeded

Full-time performance by an automateddrivingsystemof all

aspects of driving, under all roadways and environmental

conditionsthat can be managed by a humandriver

Driving mode-specific performance by an automated system of all aspects driving,

even if a humandriverdoes not respond appropriately to a

requestto intervene

Transfer of driving responsibilities from humans to machines/A.I. Shift in liability from Consumer to 3rd Party (OEM, owner)Source: NHTSA/SAE

The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) and NHTSA have developed industry standard levels of vehicle autonomy

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Autonomous Vehicle PlansFully Automated Vehicles to Level 4

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

• Majority of OEMs and technology companies are planning initial commercialization of Level 4 autonomy in the 2020-2021 timeframe

• Government regulators were working on passing the Self Drive Act in Congress, increasing limits on autonomous vehicles produced by OEM per year from 2,500 to 100,000, allowing these vehicles to travel in all 50 States

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Autonomous Vehicle TimeframeOver 3 Extended Phases

Current State Phase 1

2017-2020

Build Capability, Test & Validate

Autonomous Technology

Future State Phase 2

2020 - 2025

Launch Geo-Fenced Autonomous

Rideshare Networks and Private Vehicles

Future State Phase 3

2025-2030+

Full Autonomy beyond Geo-Fences

Rideshare Networks, and

Private Vehicles

Testing & Validation Geo-Fenced Autonomy Full Autonomy

New York City Geo-Fenced Area With Corridors

Staten Island

Brooklyn JFK

QueensLGAEWR

Full Autonomy beyond Geo-FencesTesting & Validation in Select Cities

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Mobility – Business ModelTransportation Behavior will Change

Shared MobilityPrivate Vehicle Ownership

Today FutureNew Mobility Business Model

1. Longer Vehicle Life:• Enabled by enhanced engineering,

advanced materials and manufacturing • Metric – miles driven

2. Vehicle Uptime (Availability):• Enabled by rigorous preventative

maintenance regime• Metric - % availability (uptime)

3. Vehicle Utilization:• Enabled by matching riders with

vehicles – right place, right time• Metric - % of day vehicle is utilized

Buying Vehicles Buying Miles

Vehicle Price Asset Efficiency

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Future Mobility ModelVehicle Requirements will Radically Change

TODAY‘sTransportation

DRIVE YOURSELF GET DRIVEN

INEX

PEN

SIVE

EXPE

NSI

VE • Taxi• Chauffeur

Services• Rental services

• Ride-hailing (personal)

• Ride-hailing (pooled)

• P2P Carpooling• Public Transport

• Fleet sharing• P2P car sharing• Private

Ownership

TOMORROW Autonomous and Shared

Personal/ PooledTaxi

Public

AutonomousTaxi

PublicAutonomousTransport

Privately Owned

PrivateAutonomy

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U.S. Mobility ProjectionsVehicle Miles Traveled will Drive Vehicle Demand

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050

Vehi

cle

Mile

s Tr

avel

ed (B

illion

s)

Private - Autonomous Shared - AutonomousNon AutonomousVehicle Type Key

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050

Vehi

cle

Parc

(Milli

ons)

-

5

10

15

20

25

2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050

Vehi

cle

Sale

s (M

illion

s)

Vehicle Miles Traveled Vehicles in Operation (VIO)

Annual New Vehicle Sales

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China Mobility ProjectionsVehicle Kilometers Traveled Accelerates

- 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050

Vehi

cle

Sale

s (M

illion

s)

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050

Tota

l Veh

icle

s Pa

rc

(Milli

ons)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050

Vehi

cle

Kilo

met

ers

Trav

eled

(Milli

ons)

Private - Autonomous Shared - AutonomousNon AutonomousVehicle Type Key

Vehicle Kilometers Traveled Vehicles in Operation

Annual New Vehicle Sales

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ElectrificationEvolution of the Powertrain

• Converging disruptions (autonomy, sharing and powertrain efficiency) will increase the pace of adoption of electrification

• Powertrain components will transition to EV specific technology over time, eliminating the need for ICE products throughout the vehicle

Onboard charging moduleDC/DC converter

Inverter

Traction motor

Battery packFuel system

Air intake systemExhaust systemTransmission

ICE Powertrain Components EV Powertrain Components

Market ShiftsInternal combustion engine

Turbocharger

Gearbox

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U.S. Electrified Vehicle ProjectionsAdoption will Accelerate

Model Inputs Factors

Market Dynamics

• Lower fuel and electricity cost• Improving electric infrastructure• EVs available in most vehicle segments

Government Regulations

• CAFE requirements • Government incentives for infrastructure and EV

purchases• 11 States adopting Zero Emissions vehicle

standards

Technology Advances

• Electrification cost becomes comparable to ICE over time

• ICE cost grows due to fuel efficiency requirements

Customer Perception

• Social pressure to reduce emissions• Range anxiety declines with increase battery

efficiency and reduced costsSource: Plante Moran

EV Model DriversVehicle Powertrain Projections

0

5

10

15

20

25

2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047

Vehi

cle

Sale

s (M

Uni

ts)

ICE HEV PHEV BEV

Note: Hydrogen fuel cell propulsion technologies did not have significant volume in projections, due to uncertain infrastructure for fueling and product costs.

Projected PHEV/BEV

Market Share:2030 – 20%2040 – 53%2050 – 88%

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Evolution of the Automobile Chassis Changing Requirements to be Common, Modular

Skateboard

Skateboard

Skateboard

Pickup Application

SUV Application

Shuttle Bus Application

Electric Vehicle Skateboard Chassis

• Vehicle differentiation requirements for end customers decline • Utilitarian applications provide broader, common customer experience through

autonomous, shared, electrified vehicles

Variable Skateboard Applications

ICE Chassis

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Evolution of the Interior SpaceShifting Expectations of the User Experience

• Interior focus still in the cockpit, but with more technology available

• Interior physical features highly streamlined• Interior design is used to differentiate their vehicles

in the market

2025 and Beyond“Autonomous and Shared”

2020 – 2025“Personalized and Connected”

2015 – 2020Current Interiors

2000 – 2015Traditional Interior of the Past

2008 Chevrolet Trailblazer SS 2018 Chevrolet Equinox Mercedes-Benz F 015 Luxury in Motion Concept2018 Tesla Model 3 Featuring Next Gen Design / Technology

• Cockpit focus to layout of the interior • Interior is the “3rd living space”• Interior maximizes user enjoyment and

satisfaction through their experiences inside –air, light, touch

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Evolution of the ExteriorDesign Changes Resulting from Mobility

Mercedes Benz Concept

Navya Autonomous Cab

SMART Pod Concept

Autonomous, shared, electrified vehicles will be more “utilitarian”

Utilitarian Design for Functionality• Vehicle ownership will transfer from personal owners to fleet owners

and exterior differentiation could be less of a factor in vehicle designs

• Emphasis will be on “interior” differentiation

• 3rd Living Space (home, work, vehicle)

Size Variations• Vehicles transporting “one individual” could be smaller

• Multi-individual vehicles could be larger

Mixed Materials• Increased safety resulting from Autonomy drives fewer collisions and

more safety

• Exterior materials shift to a variety of materials, including advande high strength steels, aluminum, carbon fiber and composite plastics - frequency of collisions should dramatically decrease

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Evolution of the Automotive Business ModelManufacturing Relationships will Radically Change

Now

Current State

Business Model Vehicles produced

Value Proposition to

Customer

Customers

Product Design

Research Development &

Engineering

Manufacturing

Future

Miles driven

Private owners “MaaS” fleet operators

Differentiated, personalizedproducts,

Commodity product, convenience, availability

18+ platforms requiring major redesign 7-8 year development cycle

Skateboard platform requiring refresh design 2-3 year development cycle

OEM internal RD&E – duplicative, costly, viewed as a market differentiator

OEMs depend on RD&E with proven, capable suppliers

Manufacturing is core competency and OEM controls end-to-end processes

OEMs focus on mobility and customer experience. Delegate more control of

vehicle manufacturing to suppliers

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Positioning for the FutureApply a Structured Analytical Approach

“Vision Creation”

Suppliers can transition forward utilizing Plante Moran’s Strategic Planning Approach

“Plan and Implement”

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Contact Information

Daron GiffordPartner, Strategy and Automotive Industry Consulting [email protected]+1 248-223-3709

plantemoran.com/futureofmobility