Future of Mobility - Precision Metalforming Association€¦ · Future of Mobility: Disruptive...
Transcript of Future of Mobility - Precision Metalforming Association€¦ · Future of Mobility: Disruptive...
Proprietary and Confidential 2
About Plante Moran
94Years serving
clients(founded in
1924)
20Years on
FORTUNE’s Best Workplace
list
39,000Professionals
worldwide
2,500+Manufacturing &
distribution clients
Comprehensive Services
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CRESA)3,000+In U.S.
Automotive Intelligence
CenterResearch on
Critical Automotive
Technologies to Suppliers
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Where is the Automotive Industry Going? Megatrends to Understand
2 Mobility
1 Autonomy
3 Electrification
4 Manufacturing the Vehicle
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AutonomyDefining the Levels of Autonomy (0-5)
0 1 2 3 4 5
No assistance Assisted Partially automated
Conditionally automated
Fully automated Autonomous
Human Transfer of responsibility Current
Machine2025-20302020-2024
Human driver in control of all aspects of driving
Driverassistanceof 1 system steering or acceleration/
deceleration . Driver Responsible for monitoring environment and all other
drivingtasks
systems , both steeringand acceleration/ deceleration .
Driver Responsible for monitoringenvironmentand
allotherdrivingtasks
Driver assistance of 2 or more Automation of 2 or more Drivingsystems . Machine will monitor
environmentandrequesthuman intervention whenneeded
Full-time performance by an automateddrivingsystemof all
aspects of driving, under all roadways and environmental
conditionsthat can be managed by a humandriver
Driving mode-specific performance by an automated system of all aspects driving,
even if a humandriverdoes not respond appropriately to a
requestto intervene
Transfer of driving responsibilities from humans to machines/A.I. Shift in liability from Consumer to 3rd Party (OEM, owner)Source: NHTSA/SAE
The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) and NHTSA have developed industry standard levels of vehicle autonomy
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Autonomous Vehicle PlansFully Automated Vehicles to Level 4
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
• Majority of OEMs and technology companies are planning initial commercialization of Level 4 autonomy in the 2020-2021 timeframe
• Government regulators were working on passing the Self Drive Act in Congress, increasing limits on autonomous vehicles produced by OEM per year from 2,500 to 100,000, allowing these vehicles to travel in all 50 States
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Autonomous Vehicle TimeframeOver 3 Extended Phases
Current State Phase 1
2017-2020
Build Capability, Test & Validate
Autonomous Technology
Future State Phase 2
2020 - 2025
Launch Geo-Fenced Autonomous
Rideshare Networks and Private Vehicles
Future State Phase 3
2025-2030+
Full Autonomy beyond Geo-Fences
Rideshare Networks, and
Private Vehicles
Testing & Validation Geo-Fenced Autonomy Full Autonomy
New York City Geo-Fenced Area With Corridors
Staten Island
Brooklyn JFK
QueensLGAEWR
Full Autonomy beyond Geo-FencesTesting & Validation in Select Cities
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Mobility – Business ModelTransportation Behavior will Change
Shared MobilityPrivate Vehicle Ownership
Today FutureNew Mobility Business Model
1. Longer Vehicle Life:• Enabled by enhanced engineering,
advanced materials and manufacturing • Metric – miles driven
2. Vehicle Uptime (Availability):• Enabled by rigorous preventative
maintenance regime• Metric - % availability (uptime)
3. Vehicle Utilization:• Enabled by matching riders with
vehicles – right place, right time• Metric - % of day vehicle is utilized
Buying Vehicles Buying Miles
Vehicle Price Asset Efficiency
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Future Mobility ModelVehicle Requirements will Radically Change
TODAY‘sTransportation
DRIVE YOURSELF GET DRIVEN
INEX
PEN
SIVE
EXPE
NSI
VE • Taxi• Chauffeur
Services• Rental services
• Ride-hailing (personal)
• Ride-hailing (pooled)
• P2P Carpooling• Public Transport
• Fleet sharing• P2P car sharing• Private
Ownership
TOMORROW Autonomous and Shared
Personal/ PooledTaxi
Public
AutonomousTaxi
PublicAutonomousTransport
Privately Owned
PrivateAutonomy
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U.S. Mobility ProjectionsVehicle Miles Traveled will Drive Vehicle Demand
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050
Vehi
cle
Mile
s Tr
avel
ed (B
illion
s)
Private - Autonomous Shared - AutonomousNon AutonomousVehicle Type Key
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050
Vehi
cle
Parc
(Milli
ons)
-
5
10
15
20
25
2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050
Vehi
cle
Sale
s (M
illion
s)
Vehicle Miles Traveled Vehicles in Operation (VIO)
Annual New Vehicle Sales
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China Mobility ProjectionsVehicle Kilometers Traveled Accelerates
- 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050
Vehi
cle
Sale
s (M
illion
s)
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050
Tota
l Veh
icle
s Pa
rc
(Milli
ons)
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050
Vehi
cle
Kilo
met
ers
Trav
eled
(Milli
ons)
Private - Autonomous Shared - AutonomousNon AutonomousVehicle Type Key
Vehicle Kilometers Traveled Vehicles in Operation
Annual New Vehicle Sales
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ElectrificationEvolution of the Powertrain
• Converging disruptions (autonomy, sharing and powertrain efficiency) will increase the pace of adoption of electrification
• Powertrain components will transition to EV specific technology over time, eliminating the need for ICE products throughout the vehicle
Onboard charging moduleDC/DC converter
Inverter
Traction motor
Battery packFuel system
Air intake systemExhaust systemTransmission
ICE Powertrain Components EV Powertrain Components
Market ShiftsInternal combustion engine
Turbocharger
Gearbox
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U.S. Electrified Vehicle ProjectionsAdoption will Accelerate
Model Inputs Factors
Market Dynamics
• Lower fuel and electricity cost• Improving electric infrastructure• EVs available in most vehicle segments
Government Regulations
• CAFE requirements • Government incentives for infrastructure and EV
purchases• 11 States adopting Zero Emissions vehicle
standards
Technology Advances
• Electrification cost becomes comparable to ICE over time
• ICE cost grows due to fuel efficiency requirements
Customer Perception
• Social pressure to reduce emissions• Range anxiety declines with increase battery
efficiency and reduced costsSource: Plante Moran
EV Model DriversVehicle Powertrain Projections
0
5
10
15
20
25
2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047
Vehi
cle
Sale
s (M
Uni
ts)
ICE HEV PHEV BEV
Note: Hydrogen fuel cell propulsion technologies did not have significant volume in projections, due to uncertain infrastructure for fueling and product costs.
Projected PHEV/BEV
Market Share:2030 – 20%2040 – 53%2050 – 88%
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Evolution of the Automobile Chassis Changing Requirements to be Common, Modular
Skateboard
Skateboard
Skateboard
Pickup Application
SUV Application
Shuttle Bus Application
Electric Vehicle Skateboard Chassis
• Vehicle differentiation requirements for end customers decline • Utilitarian applications provide broader, common customer experience through
autonomous, shared, electrified vehicles
Variable Skateboard Applications
ICE Chassis
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Evolution of the Interior SpaceShifting Expectations of the User Experience
• Interior focus still in the cockpit, but with more technology available
• Interior physical features highly streamlined• Interior design is used to differentiate their vehicles
in the market
2025 and Beyond“Autonomous and Shared”
2020 – 2025“Personalized and Connected”
2015 – 2020Current Interiors
2000 – 2015Traditional Interior of the Past
2008 Chevrolet Trailblazer SS 2018 Chevrolet Equinox Mercedes-Benz F 015 Luxury in Motion Concept2018 Tesla Model 3 Featuring Next Gen Design / Technology
• Cockpit focus to layout of the interior • Interior is the “3rd living space”• Interior maximizes user enjoyment and
satisfaction through their experiences inside –air, light, touch
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Evolution of the ExteriorDesign Changes Resulting from Mobility
Mercedes Benz Concept
Navya Autonomous Cab
SMART Pod Concept
Autonomous, shared, electrified vehicles will be more “utilitarian”
Utilitarian Design for Functionality• Vehicle ownership will transfer from personal owners to fleet owners
and exterior differentiation could be less of a factor in vehicle designs
• Emphasis will be on “interior” differentiation
• 3rd Living Space (home, work, vehicle)
Size Variations• Vehicles transporting “one individual” could be smaller
• Multi-individual vehicles could be larger
Mixed Materials• Increased safety resulting from Autonomy drives fewer collisions and
more safety
• Exterior materials shift to a variety of materials, including advande high strength steels, aluminum, carbon fiber and composite plastics - frequency of collisions should dramatically decrease
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Evolution of the Automotive Business ModelManufacturing Relationships will Radically Change
Now
Current State
Business Model Vehicles produced
Value Proposition to
Customer
Customers
Product Design
Research Development &
Engineering
Manufacturing
Future
Miles driven
Private owners “MaaS” fleet operators
Differentiated, personalizedproducts,
Commodity product, convenience, availability
18+ platforms requiring major redesign 7-8 year development cycle
Skateboard platform requiring refresh design 2-3 year development cycle
OEM internal RD&E – duplicative, costly, viewed as a market differentiator
OEMs depend on RD&E with proven, capable suppliers
Manufacturing is core competency and OEM controls end-to-end processes
OEMs focus on mobility and customer experience. Delegate more control of
vehicle manufacturing to suppliers
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Positioning for the FutureApply a Structured Analytical Approach
“Vision Creation”
Suppliers can transition forward utilizing Plante Moran’s Strategic Planning Approach
“Plan and Implement”
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Contact Information
Daron GiffordPartner, Strategy and Automotive Industry Consulting [email protected]+1 248-223-3709
plantemoran.com/futureofmobility