Future of manufacturing (EPSRC)
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Transcript of Future of manufacturing (EPSRC)
The Future of Manufacturing
EPSRC Manufacturing the Future Conference - 23rd September
Sir Mark Walport, the Government’s Chief Scientific Advisor
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Manufacturing matters, now and for the future
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
• Absolute value: contribution to GDP of £139 billion in 2013
• Exports: 52% of UK exports in 2013 (£263 billion)
• R&D: 72-79% of total UK R&D spend 2001-2012
• Productivity: growth 4.6% p.a. (1980-2013), UK 3.1% p.a.
• Jobs: high skilled and well paid
• Resilience: supporting faster recovery from recession
Manufacturing is and must continue to be an essential part of the UK economy.
3
The recent history of manufacturing in UK
Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
• UK manufacturing is diverse
• Historical context
• Weak relative performance
• R&D expenditure
• Capital investment
• % global manufacturing exports
• Strong relative performance
• Productivity
• Export intensity
4Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 30 th September 2013
Emerging market opportunities
• Emergence of BRICs and the ‘Next 11’
• Growing average buying power
• Continued global ‘fragmentation’ of the value chain
• Some ‘onshoring’ back to the UK
1950UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
5
30% Urban.
global pop.
Sustainability Challenge – Growing Urban population
1980
6
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
40% Urban.
global pop.
Sustainability Challenge – Growing Urban population
2010
7
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
52% Urban.
global pop.
Sustainability Challenge – Growing Urban population
2030
8
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
61% Urban.
global pop.
Sustainability Challenge – Growing Urban population
2050
9
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
72% Urban.
global pop.
Sustainability Challenge – Growing Urban population
10
Sustainability Challenge – Climate Change
credit: Daily Mail
Credit: Adelaide Advertiser
11Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
Looking ahead to 2050:
A Circular Economy
These trends will lead to volatile commodity prices, necessitating a ‘circular economy’:
•Reuse,
•Remanufacturing,
•Recycling.
12Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
• Packaging of services with products e.g. Rolls Royce
• Selling of technological ‘know how’ e.g. ARM
• Remanufacturing of products e.g. JCB / Caterpillar
The Value Chain
Manufacturing is no longer just about ‘production’ – manufacturers will increasingly make use of a wider ‘value chain’ to create revenue.
13Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
More digital connections along value chains
Mass personalisation of low-cost products, on demand
Distributed production: super factories, local, home, mobile
Greater design freedom
Faster, more responsive and closer to customers
credit: stock photo credit: Mojo
credit: flightradar24.comcredit: Zaha Hadid Architects
14Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
Robotics
Improving operational efficiencies.
credit: KUKA Systems GmbH (CC BY-SA 3.0) credit: Universal Robots
15Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
The Internet of Things
Better energy management
The Internet of Things (IoT) has massive potential to revolutionise manufacturing:
credit: Measure My Energy
16Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
The Internet of Things
More connected supply chain
Source: Map for iPhone Glass
17Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
Looking ahead to 2050:
The Internet of Things
• To get the full benefits, the system will need to allow
• ‘thing-to-thing’ authentication
• Secure remote access
The Internet of Things (IoT) also exposes manufacturing to new challenges:
• Security
• Industrial espionage/sabotage
• Encryption needs to be proportionate to the risk
credit: Bloomberg/Getty
credit: stock photo
18Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 30 th September 2013
High Performance Computing
Enables highly complex designs to be engineered cheaper and manufactured quicker
credit: stock photo
credit: TED.comcredit: stock photo
19 The Age of Analytics, April 30th 2014
The Turing Institute
The Mission
1. To undertake research and knowledge sharing in the key disciplines of mathematics, computer and data science
2. To develop networks between leaders
3. To enable industry and academia to work together on research with practical applications
4. To provide advice to policy makers on the wider implications of research
5. To provide strategic oversight and leadership
The vision1. Promote the development
and use of advanced mathematics, computer science and algorithms for human benefit
2. Conduct first class research and development
3. It will be a world leading institute that will provide a fitting memorial to Alan Turing
credit: Duane Wessels (CC BY-SA-NC 2.0)
20Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project: 30 th September 2013
Advanced Materials
New materials, metals, super-alloys and composites which are able to withstand
•higher temperatures;
•greater pressures, and;
•higher radiation doses.
They are light and strong, and therefore more efficient.
credit: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
We need to utilise the whole of the Science
Landscape
22Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
Looking ahead to 2050:Increasingly dependent on highly skilled workers
• Strong demand for manufacturing workers – 800,000 jobs to fill in the years up to 2020.
• STEM skills will be vital for majority of these roles.
• However, due to the increasing ‘value chain’ people will need a blend of technical & commercial ‘hybrid’ skills
23Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
We will need to accommodate an older workforce
Looking ahead to 2050:Increasingly dependent on highly skilled workers
Human enhancement may support mental performance and physical mobility, helping counter the effect of ageing credit: Noonee
24Share of manufacturing exports in manufacturing output
• Better intelligence - beyond measuring output from production
• Better targeting of support, using the wider policy system
• Enhancing capability in evaluating and coordinating policy
• Scaling up a number of existing initiatives
• EPSRC Foresight Fellowships
As manufacturing evolves, policy makers will need new approaches to ensure that the UK is a place where it thrives
What’s the role of Government?
Every effort has been made to trace copyright holders and to obtain their permission for the use of copyright material. We apologise for any errors or omissions in the included attributions and would be grateful if notified of any corrections that should be incorporated in future versions of this slide set. We can be contacted through [email protected].
@uksciencechief
www.gov.uk/go-science