Future of Hydrogeology in Alberta

Gordon MacMillan1, Jens Schumacher1, and Kevin Hayley1, 2

1. Fluid Domains Inc.

2. Groundwater Solutions PTY LTD

Hydrogeology support tailored to your needs

Is the hydrogeologic community on the right track to improve the management of groundwater?

Presentation Purpose

Measure successful management by:

1) Protection of people and environment2) Economic efficiency

• As a modeller I believe that the exercise of trying to predict the future results in better planning and decision making.

• I also believe this is equally true for development of:• Business plans

• A water strategy for a SAGD project

• Provincial guidelines

Presentation Purpose

Prediction uncertainty does not invalidate the exercise of making predictions.

Presentation Context

Example: Celestial navigation

• Earliest reference in 8th century BC LONG HISTORY

• Long voyages and limited supplies on shipHIGHEST CONSEQUENCES

• Success led to trade advantage and fameHIGH REWARDS

• Wikipedia description of history of navigation “… the art of directing vessels upon the open sea through the establishment of its position and course by means of traditional practice, geometry, astronomy, or special instruments.”MULTI-DISCIPLINARYMIXES TRADITIONAL PRACTICE WITH NEW TECHNOLOGIES IMPERFECT PREDICTIONS THAT WERE IMPROVED OVER TIME

Presentation Context

Unknowns that contribute to prediction uncertainty:

1) current location

2) trajectory

3) speed

Presentation Context

Unknowns that contribute to prediction uncertainty:

1) current location

2) trajectory

3) speed

Strategy for uncertainty:1) Accept error in planning2) Don’t stop exploring or

trading due to uncertainty

3) Continue to improve predictions over time

Presentation Context

Unknowns that contribute to prediction uncertainty:

1) current location

2) trajectory

3) speed

Strategy for uncertainty:1) Accept error in planning2) Don’t stop exploring or

trading due to uncertainty

3) Continue to improve predictions over time

1) Distribution of water in Alberta

2) An incomplete look over time Water use and agricultural activity

Oil and gas activity

Regulatory framework

3) Future of hydrogeology• Challenges

• Tools and methods

• Regulatory framework

Presentation Outline

Changing Water Use

1917 2017 2037

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Pop

ula

tio

n o

f A

lber

ta

Wiki/Finance Alberta

Municipal Cencus

Statistics Canada

1923 Calgary Stampede became an annual event

1969 First manned moon landing

1990’s Beginning of modern internet

1967

73,022

600,000

1,500,000

2,500,000

Changing Water Use

1917 2017 2037

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Pop

ula

tio

n o

f A

lber

ta

Wiki/Finance Alberta

Municipal Cencus

Statistics Canada

SMCC (2014)

SMCC (2014)

SMCC (2014)

1967

Changing Water Balance

Alberta Water Portal (2017):

“In much of southern Alberta, there is not enough rainfall and moisture to naturally sustain agricultural crops.”

“Irrigation for agriculture is the largest user of water in Alberta, accounting for 60 to 65% of all water consumed on average.”

“Irrigation contributes almost 20% of the province’s gross agricultural production on about 5% of Alberta’s cultivated land.”

“It is estimated that the direct and indirect impact of irrigation is worth about $5 billion to the Alberta economy.”

Changing Water Balance

1917 2017 2037

1902 Bow Glacier 2002 Bow Glacier

1896 Peyto Glacier 2011 Peyto Glacier

1967

Young (1996) suggests glaciers contribute:

only 2.5% of total annual flow in Bow River 47% of flow during the summer months of a low flow year like 1970

Changing Water Use

1917 2017 2037

What does it mean?Increased population with decreased water security

More use of groundwater as primary source or backup More concern about groundwater – surface water effects Surface water quality vulnerable in low flow summer months

1967

Oil and Gas Activity – Crude Oil

1917 2017 20371967

Alberta Energy (2016)0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

90,000,000

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13

An

nu

al C

rud

e P

rod

uct

ion

(m

3)

Date

Oil and Gas Activity – Well Count

1917 2017 2037

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

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56

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Wel

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Yea

r En

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Date

Conventional Oil Well Bitumen Well Conventional Gas Well CBM and Shale Well Total Wells

1967

Alberta Energy (2016)

Oil and Gas Activity

1917 2017 2037

OIL SANDS TIGHT GASCBM

- Large amount of aging infrastructure- Many issues are unique to discrete areas of the province- Risk to ecology and drinking water is highly variable - Many remote locations i.e. no nearby human receptors

1967

Oil and Gas Activity

1917 2017 2037

What does it mean?Industry needs to work harder over time to produce oil and gas

Strong need for economic efficiency Large amount of infrastructure to be reclaimed As population grows human receptors will encroach upon old

infrastructure

1967

Regulatory Framework

1917 1967 2017 2037

• Water Act (1999) and groundwater diversion guidelines 2003 and 2011

• Groundwater diversion guidelines for CBM 2004• AB Tier 2 Soil and Groundwater Remediation 2009 and 2016• 2006 Water Conservation and Allocation – Oil • Revised water conservation and allocation, new thermal

effects and contact with bitumen pending

Regulatory Framework

1917 1967 2017 2037

• Water Act (1999) and groundwater diversion guidelines 2003 and 2011

• Groundwater diversion guidelines for CBM 2004• AB Tier 2 Soil and Groundwater Remediation 2009 and 2016• 2006 Water Conservation and Allocation – Oil • Revised water conservation and allocation, new thermal

effects and contact with bitumen pending • Guidance on groundwater – surface water Alberta desktop method (2011) is prohibitive for

groundwater use

Regulatory Framework

1917 2017 2037

What does it mean?Is regulatory framework sufficient to enable future success?

Many guidelines have been developed for issues specific to discrete areas of the province

Further adoption of risk assessment approaches Further groundwater – surface water guidance needed Increased sophistication around use of modelling

1967

Future of Hydrogeology

• What are the challenges we will face?

• Do we have the necessary tools and methods for groundwater challenges?

• Is the regulatory framework adequate?

Successful Management of Hydrogeology1) Protection of people and environment2) Economic efficiency

Future of Hydrogeology

Likely Future

Pressures Challenge for Hydrogeologists

Extreme low flow

periods in the

summer

- increased dependency on groundwater

- more concern about groundwater - surface water interactions

- increased risk for spills to affect water quality because of decreased flow

Increased population

- more rural groundwater users

- encroachment of residential developments on industrial areas

- development on brownfield sites

Aging oil and gas

infrastructure

- more spills

- more sites that need to be reclaimed

Future of Hydrogeology

Honest predictions that don’t oversimplify the problem and that include an assessment of prediction uncertainty- Use of inverse methods (e.g. PEST or UCODE) is essential- Consideration of structural uncertainty may require a multimodel approach

Likely Future

Pressures

Undesired

Environmental Future

Future of Low

Economic EfficiencyExtreme low flow

periods in the

summer

- impacts to aquatic ecology

- unsafe water supplies

- increased objections under Water Act

- delayed approvals

Future of Hydrogeology

Regulatory guidance on acceptable groundwater –surface water effects

- Establish instream flow needs (IFN) that consider groundwater withdrawal; and/or

- Aquatic habitat modelling based on regulatory guidance for indicator species

Likely Future

Pressures

Undesired

Environmental Future

Future of Low

Economic EfficiencyExtreme low flow

periods in the

summer

- impacts to aquatic ecology

- unsafe water supplies

- increased objections under Water Act

- delayed approvals

Future of Hydrogeology

Likely Future

Pressures

Undesired

Environmental Future

Future of Low

Economic Efficiency

Increased

population

- impared ecological functions of surface

water

- population at risk from contaminated

sites

- water commonly trucked in or piped in

from other areas

Transparent evaluation of potential water sources- Oilfield injection guidelines do a good job of this

Regulatory guidance on acceptable groundwater – surface water effects

Increased coordination between water professionals- Contaminant hydrogeologist hydrologist

Likely Future

Pressures

Undesired

Environmental Future

Future of Low

Economic Efficiency

Aging oil and gas

infrastructure - impacts to environmental receptors

- aquifers that can no longer be used for

residential or industrial purposes

- never ending site investigations

- few sites reaching closure

Future of Hydrogeology

Honest predictions that don’t oversimplify the problem and that include an assessment of prediction uncertainty

Increased adoption of risk management and risk-based site closure- 2016 improved version of 2009 Alberta Tier 2 Soil and Groundwater Remediation Guidelines

Future of Hydrogeology

1) Honest predictions that don’t oversimplify the problem and that include an assessment of prediction uncertainty

2) Regulatory guidance on acceptable groundwater – surface water effects

3) Increased coordination between water professionals

4) Increased adoption of risk management and risk-based site closure

Non-linear uncertainty analysis

Integrated models Development of IFNs

Predict effects to aquatic receptors

Engagement of other stakeholders

Multimodels Establishing a common language between water professionals

Consideration of structural uncertainty

Improved data exchange

Summary of Message

1917 2017 20371967

1) Accept error in planning

2) Don’t stop making decisions due to uncertainty

3) Continue to improve predictions over time

THANK YOU

Hydrogeology support tailored to your needs

Gordon MacMillan; gmacmillan@fluid-domains.com; 403.462.2007

Jens Schumacher; jschumacher@fluid-domains.com; 403.370.5150

References

Alberta Energy. 2016. Accessed website http://www.energy.alberta.ca/About_Us/3997.asp

Alberta Water Portal. 2017. Website accessed in March 2017. http://albertawater.com/what-is-water-used-for-in-alberta/agriculture-in-alberta

Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. 2017. Data accessed in March 2017. http://www.capp.ca/publications-and-statistics/statistics/statistical-handbook

GlacierChange.org. 2017. Website accessed in March 2017. http://glacierchange.org/scrapbook/peyto-glacier-alberta-2/peyto-glacier-mass-balance-1966-2009/

Science Media Centre of Canada (SMCC). 2014. Alberta’s Bow River: Climate change and human impacts. SMCC Backgrounder.

Young, G.J. 1996. Contribution of Glacier Meltwater to the Flow of the Bow River.