Future of Financial Services, Banks, Insurance, Auditors - keynote speaker
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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
Take Hold of Your FutureBig issues for Financial Services and
for those who advise or audit them
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Greatest risk is institutional blindness
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only sell or do things you really believe inLife is Short
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Why I believe in banking and insurance
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‘6 words spell F U T U R E of banking’F astU rbanT ribalU niversalR adicalE thical
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ALL BIG TRENDS ARE RELATED
MANY TRENDS CHANGE (RELATIVELY) SLOWLYeg demographics, emerging markets, digital tech
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But bank strategies often overtaken by events
World can change faster than your clients can hold a board meeting
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Shocks Require Agility
EU / EuroSyria / Iran / US / Israel
China / JapanMutant virus
Libor lawsuits
(Asbestos: 730,000 claimants - 8500 defendents - $250bn already)
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Banks and Insurers need
more than one strategy
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WGP 1980-‐2013 (%,constant prices)
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US GDP 1980-‐2013 (%,constant prices)
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EU GDP 1980-‐2013 (%,constant prices)
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Vietnam GDP 1985-‐2011
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>40% WDP by 2015
� IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
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Looks like more of the same ?
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EU card issuance/ debt - LOW / ZERO GROWTHRegulation and competition - MARGINS CUT
BIG FINES FOR PAYMENT SYSTEMS FAILURES
Payment Revenues Crisis
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£ 375 bn
$2.3 trillion US + $85bn a month
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Text
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The future of banking is about
EMOTION
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Passions Change
Demands for more sustainable, socially responsible and ethically managed banking, stronger
accountability and far more robust auditing
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Bank Customer / Client :
Simple, elegant solutions to complex problems
Anticipate, instinct, smartThought-leadership, common
sense, reliable adviceSuperb backup in crisis
Sharp insight and total honesty
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300 million move to cities in China and475 million to cities in Africa by 2025
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1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years
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Europe Dying 4 couples to produce singlegreat-grand child
Stop Ageing
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75% of all US and UK wealth owned by those over 65 -‐ but many need to work
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Immigration Remittances
Drive PaymentInnovation
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CUSTOMER CHOICE 200 million payments globally
> 80% in E Africa > $170bn in 2012> $700bn in 2016
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• Kenya -‐ 17m customers• $9bn pa -‐ >33% GDP• Tanzania 9m people• 35 na^on links via HomeSend Hub•
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•$550bn in 2012 - 214m transfers•150m immigrants globally•World’s poorest 48 nations = double FDI value•33% of Liberia economy•$55bn remittances by mobile in 2016
•
Global Remi_ances
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lPeople like to belonglSense of identitylCommunity lFamilylPersonal advisor
Happy to Belong
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1 trillionpages
a month
Most bank and insurance customers now influenced by
social media
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Would recommend you to a friend ?
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"Perfection!, Wonderful hotel. Good value, beautiful views.“ Madrid May 20, 2013
This was the most beautiful hotel. Clean, friendly and good value.
“Worst hotel I have ever been in. Should be closed down.“ Paris April 11, 2013
NEVER stay in this terrible place. Rats, insects, dirty. Many guests got sick.
74 million users a month
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• Mother changed mind re banking online / mobile - in 3 hours, leapt 30 years
• Why
Market research cannot predict future
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80% web customers (tribe) lost in ?? seconds
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Future of London as global banking centre
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Why “old” outsourcing story in India nearly over
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We are only in first hour of first day of
eCommerce
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e-‐commerce hit $1 trillion in 2012 e-‐marketer
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MobileMore than a
Channel
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1.7bn phone users are unbanked
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2m businesses use SQUARE in US
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•In UK alone....•Transactions >£600 billion pa •Credit card debt >£60bn•Average card interest rate 16%•2% commissions worth £12bn
Payments Doorway
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Retail Banks and Telcos on
Collision Course
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Vodafone Mastercard Sprint
Vamoosle
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Free mobile devicescalls / web / TV / games / payHigher income model
2010 2013 2015
TelcoBanks
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• Zettabyte = 1024 ExabytesExabyte = 1024 PetabytesPetabyte = 1024 TerabytesTerabytes = 1024 Gigabytes That's a data explosion of 44x in approximately 10 years.
BIGData
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Aramco - 30,000 computers hit - files lost
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5.5 billion attacks42% increase / year
>160Gbps in denial of service1000 major attacks / hr in UK
Worries about US Prism / security services Huge potential impact on cloud computing
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•Home•Work•Online•Offline•Sales•Entertain•Phone•Mobile•Chat•Inst Investor / UHNW / Corporate FD etc
ONECUSTOMER
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Regulatory Swings
eg Capital Adequacy / ROI
Public pressure v Reality
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NationalismExpect more efforts to skew financial
markets with government policy
Exchange rate warsCorporation tax spiral
Turning a blind eye
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$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
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Shale gas 33% US supplies
200 years global supplyUp from 60 years in 5 years
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120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day7,000 times total global power usePower Moscow from Libyan Desert
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120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day7,000 times total power use
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only sell what you believe inand would sell to your family and friends
.....The only corporate value worth having.....
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Teams in top half of Engagement
� 86% more likely be.er customer metrics� 70% more likely to have low staff turnover� 70% more likely to be highly produc>ve� 44% more likely to be profitable
� 10 million surveyed by Gallup
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BeyondCompliancePerfect compliance will keep bankers
out of prison but cannot protect brand, because public expectations change rapidly - with severe judgment on
those who justify past “unethical” behaviour on grounds that it was 100% compliant.
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Truth about Retail Funds�Next miss-selling scandal?�65-75% of actively managed funds fail to beat trackers �Most fund managers are reluctant to invest own money in own retail funds and do not recommend to their friends
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Agility means
specialist partners
Your clients can’t do it on their own
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•Individuals•Families•Teams•Communi0es•Wide World
Building a BeQer World
Be_er leadership, customer service, underwri^ng, risk management, cost control, marke^ng, mo^va^on
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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
Take Hold of Your FutureBig issues for Financial Services and
for those who advise or audit them