Future of Bitcoin
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Future of Bitcoin
Ron GrossBitcoil
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Present History
4 years into the adoption curve
X1000 price increase since 2010
Services
Legal / regulatory
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Present History - Users
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Present History - Media
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Present History - Price
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The future affects the present
Future predictions affect the present
Bitcoin is a Bootstrapped Currency
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Three possible futures (at least)
Bitcoin fails
Bitcoin stagnates
Bitcoin wins
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Bitcoin Fails
Bitcoin has powerful, well-funded enemies Payment processors Banks Governments ?
Various attacks are possible Protocol attacks (e.g. 51%) Price manipulation Regulatory attacks Hacking
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Bitcoin Fails
People lose faith in Bitcoin
A race to the bottom – prices spiral to $0
The way down might take a while, like the way up
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Bitcoin Stagnates
Bitcoin prices reach a stable price level
It becomes some small percent of the world economy
Used for some purposes, mostly on the internet
Growth in user base and monetary value halts
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Bitcoin Stagnates
Bitcoin is useful even if not “everybody” is using it.
Bitcoin users can still: Hold their own money Send it to whoever they want Use advanced features
People move in and out of the Bitcoin economy at will
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Bitcoin Wins
More and more people see the benefits
They trade Fiat money for BTC
Bitcoin is a major part of the world economy
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Safety
Banks and payment processors cooperate instead of compete
Insured BTC deposits
Government issues Fiat backed by BTC (Gold Standard 2.0)
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Usability
Bitcoin becomes boring
Several great wallets to choose from
Everything Just Works
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Exchanges
Buy Bitcoins at your supermarket / bank
Distributed exchanges
Lower exchange fees
Managed wallets
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Competition
Bitcoin is just the first cryptocurrency
Ripple is also a competitor
Maybe something else entirely?
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Mining & Protocol
Block reward drops to zero around 2050
Transaction fee structure change
Hash function upgraded(Quantum resistant)
Other changes (e.g. micro-satoshi)
Some things remain fixed (21 million coins)
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Questions?
ripper234.com/about
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References
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Weaknesses
http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/2259/what-would-be-an-estimate-of-the-value-gained-if-the-whole-world-started-using-b
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Total_bitcoins_over_time.png
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Hardfork_Wishlist
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl
http://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-users?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=1×pan=all&scale=1&address=