Future Fuel Opportunities for Light-Duty Vehicles: …cse.ksu.edu/files/cse/Jim Anderson.pdfResearch...
Transcript of Future Fuel Opportunities for Light-Duty Vehicles: …cse.ksu.edu/files/cse/Jim Anderson.pdfResearch...
Research & Advanced Engineering
Future Fuel Opportunities for Light-Duty Vehicles:
An Automaker’s Perspective
James E. Anderson Technical Expert, Fuel Science
Systems Analytics & Environmental Sciences Dept. Research & Advanced Engineering
Ford Motor Company
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Research & Advanced Engineering
Overview • Evolution in light-duty vehicle requirements
• Tremendous progress in tailpipe emissions. • New challenges include fuel economy and GHGs. • Fuels and vehicles are a system. Fuel quality has
evolved with vehicles and must continue to improve in tandem with vehicle advancements.
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Research & Advanced Engineering
Cars and trucks provide…
• Personal mobility • Utility (passengers, cargo, towing) • Performance (accel., speed, handling, stopping) • Toughness (extreme conditions, durability) • Safety (airbags, anti-lock brakes, stability control,
traction control, structural, lane departure, crash avoidance, …)
• Comfort and style (design, paint, NVH, …) • Technology (connectivity, V2V, …) There has been tremendous progress in vehicle function and features. These have become “standard” equipment. Meanwhile, new sustainability requirements have emerged.
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Research & Advanced Engineering
Sustainability objectives
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• Improve manufacturing facility efficiency and emissions
• Biomaterials, recycled content
• Human rights code and strategy
• Emissions control (tailpipe, evap.)
• Fuel economy improvement • GHG emissions reduction
• Manufacturing footprint (GHG, energy, water, waste)
• Sustainable materials
• Social
• Local air quality
• Oil import reduction • Climate change
Issue Solution
With the exception of fuel economy, sustainability has generally not been a consumer demand.
Pro
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2012/2013 version released June 2013 2013/2014 version expected release planned for June 2014
Summary Report and Full Version available on Ford website
More about Sustainability at Ford http://corporate.ford.com/go/sustainability
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Blueprint For Sustainability
Research & Advanced Engineering
Year1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Ligh
t-dut
y ga
solin
e ve
hicl
e em
issi
ons
(g/m
ile)
0.01
0.1
1
10
HCNOx
CO
Wallington, T.J., et al., Meteorol. Z., 17, 109, 2008 Wallington, T.J., et al., Energy Policy, 54, 47, 2013
Large reductions in emissions, both per vehicle per mile and for on-road fleet, have been achieved.
Gasoline plot
Year1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 G
asol
ine
Em
issi
ons
(milli
ons
tons
)
0.1
1
10
100
CO NOx VOCsPM 10
Emissions from on-road gasoline fleet Emissions per vehicle per mile
Gasoline vehicle emission trends (U.S.)
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Year1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
D
iese
l Em
issi
ons
(milli
ons
tons
)
0.1
1
10
NOx
CO VOCs PM 10
Khalek, I., et al., J. AWMA, 61, 427, 2011 Wallington, T.J., et al., Energy Policy, 54, 47, 2013
Emissions from on-road diesel fleet
Model Year1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Emis
sion
sta
ndar
ds a
pplic
able
fo
r med
ium
-dut
y di
esel
s (g
/[bhp
hr])
0.01
0.1
1
10
NOxPM
Emissions standards per vehicle per mile
Modern diesel catalyst systems include a diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC), urea selective catalytic reduction (urea-SCR) or lean NOx catalyst, and diesel particulate filter (DPF). Large emission reductions from new technology have been realized.
Diesel vehicle emission trends (U.S.)
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Global road transport vehicle miles traveled will double from 2000 to 2050, but VOC and NOx emissions are expected to decrease 10-fold and 6-fold, respectively.
OECD non-OECD
World Business Council for Sustainable Development, Mobility 2030: meeting the challenges to sustainability. -- ISBN: 2-940240-57-4, Geneva, Switzerland.
VOC
NOx
Future emissions
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Fuel quality enablers for emissions control
Year1970 1980 1990 2000
Lead
add
ed to
U.S
. gas
olin
e (g
per
gal
lon)
0
1
2
3
4
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Use of tetra-ethyl lead in gasoline phased out as part of Clean Air Act.
Lead in U.S. Gasoline
Year1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Sulfu
r lim
it in
Die
sel (
ppm
)
10
100
1000
10000U.S.EUChina National
Sulfur in Diesel
100-1000-fold decrease in sulfur content of road transport diesel fuel.
Data source: http://transportpolicy.net/; http://www.epa.gov/blackcarbon/2012report/Appendix4.pdf
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Fuel quality improvements were required for tailpipe emissions reductions.
Research & Advanced Engineering
Climate change and GHGs: the new challenge
Light-duty cars and trucks contribute about 20% of US, 19% of EU-27, and 11% of global fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Need to address CO2 in all sectors.
Year1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
[CO
2] (p
pm)
320
340
360
380
400
2011 2012 2013 2014
390
395
400
Mauna Loa, Hawaii
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Time frames • Near-term
– Increasingly more efficient use of gasoline/diesel – Natural gas for high fuel consumers
• Mid-term – Electrification – CO2 targets are very challenging – Low-CO2 fuels need to emerge
• Long-term – Unclear! – New fuel and vehicle technology developments will
determine optimal approach (e.g., cost and availability of low-CO2 fuels and electricity, storage)
Uncertainty about future options requires a “portfolio approach”.
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Fuel economy regulations
Davis, S., et al., Transportation Energy Data Book, Edition 32, 2013. http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/info-tools/GlobalPVstd_Aug2013_lg.jpg
25 mpg in 2000
~55 mpg in 2025
30 mpg in 2011
US CAFE est. combined cars and trucks
New fuel economy and GHG requirements are unprecedented challenges.
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20 mpg in 1978
Research & Advanced Engineering
Vehicle actions to reduce fuel consumption
Engine • Higher compression ratio (CR) • Direct injection • Turbocharging • Downsizing • Start-stop • Cylinder deactivation Vehicle • Mass reduction (aluminum in
new F150) • Aero and rolling resistance • Multi-speed transmissions • Regenerative braking • Hybridization
A wide range of vehicle efficiency actions are being taken, but with increasing cost.
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Meaningful solutions must be large-scale
To significantly impact GHG emissions, new transportation solutions need to be implemented at large-scale and thus must be affordable and cost-effective.
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New Electrified Vehicles
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POWER CHOICE
Ford’s strategy is to provide affordable technologies to the millions through Green, Safe, Smart designs and Quality products
THE
OF
MKZ
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Fuels must also contribute
As with tailpipe emissions, fuels must evolve and improve together with vehicles to reduce transport GHG emissions.
• Improved properties • Lower-CO2
V
eh
icle
Car
bo
n E
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16 http://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/14006_cradle_to_grave_analysis.pdf
Lower CO2 Fuels
Research & Advanced Engineering
Lower-CO2 fuels are needed
17 http://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/14006_cradle_to_grave_analysis.pdf
Fuel carbon intensity is becoming increasingly important.
Research & Advanced Engineering
Future gasoline and diesel
• Unconventional oil sources (deep water, oil sands, heavy oil, CTL, oil shale)
– More energy intensive to recover Economically feasible for high oil prices Greater GHG emissions than conventional oil
– Increasing contribution to the fuel supply
Future gasoline and diesel will likely have greater GHG emissions than current fuels.
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"All the world is waiting for a substitute for petrol. The day is not far distant when, for every one of those barrels of petrol, a barrel of ethanol must be substituted.” Henry Ford, 1916
Alternative fuels
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"The fuel of the future is going to come from fruit like that sumac out by the road, or from apples, weeds, sawdust – almost anything. There is fuel in every bit of vegetable matter that can be fermented. There's enough alcohol in one year's yield of an acre of potatoes to drive the machinery necessary to cultivate the fields for a hundred years.” Henry Ford, 1925
Research & Advanced Engineering
Challenges for alternative fuels
• Unseating the incumbent is very difficult. – Production, Infrastructure, Availability, Vehicles, Standards,
Regulations, Awareness, Acceptance – Scale disadvantage
• Compelling reasons are needed for adoption of an alternative fuel.
– 1) Cost … 2) CO2 and Renewability
• Oil price is critical (fuel cost difference, payback time). • Multiple alternatives increase the challenges.
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Fuel properties (e.g., octane ratings) can also contribute by enabling more efficient engines.
Fuels must also contribute
Improved properties
Improved Vehicle Efficiency
Lower CO2 Fuels
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Lower-CO2
High-octane renewable
fuels
Research & Advanced Engineering
Autoignition of the air-fuel mixture ahead of the flame front Creates audible noise and can lead to engine damage Caused by high compression temperatures, arising from:
o higher engine torques o higher compression ratios (CR)
Octane ratings describe the knock resistance of fuels.
Normal Heavy Knock
Slight Knock
What is knock?
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Importance of knock
Spark Retard
Nor
mal
ized
Effi
cien
cy
SAE 2006-01-0229
Compression Ratio
Effi
cien
cy Im
prov
emen
t (%
) Heywood textbook
Higher CRs can greatly improve efficiency.
But at high loads, spark retard is needed to avoid knock, which degrades efficiency.
Fuels with higher octane ratings prevent knock, enabling higher CR with higher efficiency. Octane rating is the critical fuel property for engine efficiency.
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89
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1983 1986 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
RO
N E0E10
Octane ratings and ethanol
Oxy
gena
te(B
gal/y
r)
0
5
10
15
Gas
olin
e(B
gal/y
r)
04080
120160
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Uni
form
Etha
nol
Ble
nd (%
v)
02468
10
0
0
15
10
Ethanol
MTBE
E10
E0
Gas
olin
e
(Bga
l/yr
) O
xyge
nat
e (B
gal/
yr)
Ble
nd
(%
v)
Ethanol has high octane value in gasoline. Fuel industry captured this in E10 by lowering the octane rating of the hydrocarbon portion of gasoline.
24 Anderson, et al., SAE 2012-01-1274 Anderson, et al., 97:585-594, 2012
Ethanol has high octane value in gasoline.
Research & Advanced Engineering
Quantify fuel economy & CO2 benefits of higher CR, enabled by increased fuel octane rating and ethanol content. • 3.5L turbocharged DI engine, 10:1, 12:1, 13:1 CR • E10, E20, and E30 – both splash and match blends • Extensive mapping data, to enable fuel economy analysis
Engine dynamometer study
“Match” blends
In the context of future fuels, can the high octane value of ethanol be used to provide a significant CO2 benefit?
Premium E10
25 Jung, et al., SAE 2013-01-1321 Leone, et al., SAE 2014-01-1228
Current
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Higher CRs require higher-octane fuel
A: Higher CR only: 2.6% EPA CO2 benefit 4.9% US06 Highway CO2 penalty
B: High-octane fuel only: 1.1% EPA CO2 benefit 2.5% US06 Highway CO2 benefit
A+B: High-octane fuel and higher CR: 4.8% EPA CO2 benefit 4.9% US06 Highway CO2 benefit
Compression ratio choice is a compromise between expected duty cycle and octane rating of the expected fuel. Most customers will not pay extra for premium fuel.
Jung, et al., SAE 2013-01-1321 Leone, et al., SAE 2014-01-1228
B
A
10:1 12:1 Compression Ratio (CR)
Fuel
Oct
ane
Rat
ing
91
-RO
N E
10
96
-RO
N E
20
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Preferred approach: Raise minimum octane rating of regular fuel.
Research & Advanced Engineering
Higher-octane fuel with engine CR optimization can reduce societal cost, CO2 emissions, and petroleum consumption.
vs. 92RON Exx
“Win-Win-Win” scenarios (reductions in net cost, CO2 emissions, and petroleum consumption)
WTW Δ Cost (¢/mi)
WTW Δ CO2 Emissions (g/mi)
WTW Δ Petroleum Consumption (%)
Higher-octane fuel: Well-to-wheels analysis
27 Publications pending by USCAR
E10
E20 E30
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Long-term vision needed
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• The current Renewable Fuels Standard uses a “push” approach.
– Challenges to implementation – Few supporting mechanisms
• Vision: An optimized vehicle-fuel system in which low-CO2 fuels (such as ethanol) enable more efficient engines, augmenting inherent well-to-tank benefits.
• A compelling, stable long-term vision could generate “pull” for low-CO2 fuels, promote consensus, and guide critical longer-term strategy and planning.
Research & Advanced Engineering
Vehicle Fuel
Oil production Refining Distribution Blending Dispensing Distribution Biofuel production Feedstock growth
Biofuel Industry
Oil Industry
Filling Stations
Auto Industry
Agriculture Industry
+
Government &
Standards
Organizations
Consumers
To be successful, future fuels should provide value for all stakeholders.
Many stakeholders
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Small engine industry
Research & Advanced Engineering
Conclusions • Systems thinking approaches are needed to address air
quality, fuel economy, and sustainability goals.
• Clean fuels need to evolve and improve together with clean vehicles.
• An integrated approach is necessary. Discussion between stakeholders in industry, academia, and government is important.
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Research & Advanced Engineering
Acknowledgements
Dominic DiCicco John Ginder
Chul Kim Tom Leone
Sherry Mueller Mike Shelby
Tim Wallington Sandy Winkler
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