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  • 1

    Future Force Design:the importance of social, cultural, human and

    political factors

    Chris Manning

    UNCLASSIFIED

  • 2

    Outline

    Call to arms Background

    Modelling Complex Warfighting, Strategic Research Initiative

    Strategic Response 4: Modelling Complex Human Systems under Uncertainty

    Collaboration opportunities Complex systems design

    Conclusion

  • 3

    Call to arms

    Drivers First Principles Review Force Design Process Capability Life Cycle

    Changes Future Operating Environment and trends in future warfare

    Emerging technology Contested urban environments Robotic and autonomous systems

    Given the rapid change to a highly networked cyber world, how does the ADF ensure it isnt optimising for the wrong war?

  • 4

    Creating the Future ForcePREPARE AND EMPLOY THE

    CURRENT FORCE

    DESIGN AND DEVELOP THE

    FUTURE FORCE

    CONNECTED THROUGH

    TIME

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    Modelling Complex Warfighting (MCW) DST Group is launching the MCW Strategic Research

    Initiative. It forms part of the CDS-sponsored strategic research

    program. It draws on JOADs operations analysis capabilities and

    experience supporting individual domains. Through partnership with academia and industry the SRI will

    revolutionise the application of OA to future force design.

    Revolutionise Operations

    Analysis

    Enhance Force Design

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    Modelling Complex Warfighting Research Themes

    Scientific methods to enable robust Force Design decisions to produce a resilient force through the understanding and management of

    uncertainty in Defence.

    Methods to enable understanding of properties of the joint force emerging as a result of nonlinear interactions between the many constituent

    elements.

    Novel modelling and simulation techniques to enable exploration of whole-of-force warfighting concepts and force options.

    Conquering Uncertainty

    Synthesis of analytical and simulation results to support development of a joint force which is integrated by design.

    Modelling complexity

    Knowledge synthesis

    Innovative simulations

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    MCW SRI: Strategic Responses (SR)

    Current Force Future Force

    Conquering Uncertainty

    Modelling complexity

    Knowledge synthesis

    Innovative simulations

    SR 5: Capability decision evaluation under uncertainty

    SR 6: Concepts for complexity-enabled warfare

    SR 2: Simulation-based concept exploration

    SR7: Modelling unknowns

    SR 4: Modelling complex human systems

    SR 3: Force design data life cycle

    SR 1: Machine discovered behaviour

    0 10 20Time Horizon (years)

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    Holistic analysis including social, cultural, human and political factors

    Comprehensive understanding, impacts and insights of force design options and effects

    Aims Develop suite of methods to analyse and synthesise

    uncertainty of future operating environment and force design

    Framework for operationalisation of factors and inclusion in force design process

    SR4: Modelling Complex Human Systems under Uncertainty

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    Complex Systems Design

    Complex Systems Design is an umbrella term for candidate tools that could be applied to Land Force Design Ranging from

    Interpret/develop strategy and guidance (SODA) Emergent design (Systemic Design) Iterative design (Adversarial Scenario Analysis)

    Bridging the gap from Understanding the environment (Futures & Scenario

    Analysis) Evaluating (Wargaming and Red Teaming)

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    An Example

    Enable the Land Force to effectively operate in an irreducibly uncertain future. Transform the Land Force to avoid strategic shock Build and test future Land Force in a Joint context Ensure the combined arms team of the future is a robust, adaptive

    and potent force optimised for sustained close combat Support development of Land Force Strategy and Concepts Support the development of Land Force structures Understand the future land operating environment to hedge against

    unacceptable risk Enable more informed decision making Partnership for conceptual analysis

    ADF provide SMEs (creative thinkers) and DST in collaboration with industry/academia provide framework to apply S&T rigour (lead analysis)

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    Novel and Creative options (Land Force examples)

    Proposed design principles Adopt distributed operations framework Embrace expeditionary philosophy Seek independent self-contained combat teams Embrace unconventional warfare/irregular warfare Embrace full multi-dimension manoeuvre Employ reach back as a key enabler to offset Light Effects driven vs Terrain focussed Whilst light, carry a big stick Emphasize Phase 0 operations to shape the Battlespace early

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    Novel and Creative options (Land Force examples)

    Codename: FireAnt A mindset for design of future structures

    and operating concepts a small, agile, swarming force that would

    strike terror into adversaries even if they were larger

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    Novel and Creative options (Land Force examples)

    Develop concepts that inform novel ways to fight and integrate Information Warfare into the broader operational campaign Design force options that enhance the Future Forces ability

    to shape and influence disrupt adversaries will to fight defend against and exploit emerging technologies (eg social media,

    robotic and autonomous systems, precision strike)

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    Applied Research

    Use CSD methods to develop and propose force structures and concepts designed to operate in a complex and uncertain future

    Apply CSD to explore creative and novel options for Land Force Design

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    Collaboration Opportunities

    Aims1. Develop design capability and holistic analytical

    methodologies for whole of force2. Embed, evaluate and refine these approaches within the

    Defence environment (support contestability focus)Expected outcomes

    Improve scientific rigour applied to Defence problems and achieve better outcomes for Defence

    Enhance engagement and create opportunities for partnership Support publication of research outcomes Further development and application of methods and techniques Improve understanding and integration of interplay between non-

    material (social, cultural, human and political) and material (technological and infrastructure) factors to better inform force design

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    Conclusion

    Keen to expand the range of methods available Engage with us beyond initial candidates (Systemic Design

    and SODA) for Complex Systems Design

    Timeframe 3-5 year research proposal But want outcomes immediately 6-12 months

    Learn by doing apply existing methods to new areas or develop new

    methods Build skills through practical application to real Defence

    problems (Force Design)

  • 17

    Questions

    Future Force Design:the importance of social, cultural, human and political factorsOutlineCall to armsCreating the Future ForceModelling Complex Warfighting (MCW) Modelling Complex Warfighting Research Themes Slide Number 7Slide Number 8Complex Systems DesignAn ExampleNovel and Creative options (Land Force examples)Novel and Creative options (Land Force examples)Novel and Creative options (Land Force examples)Applied ResearchCollaboration OpportunitiesConclusionQuestions