Future focus-australias-skills-and-workforce-development-needs-discussion-paper

download Future focus-australias-skills-and-workforce-development-needs-discussion-paper

of 116

  • date post

    21-Aug-2015
  • Category

    Business

  • view

    132
  • download

    0

Embed Size (px)

Transcript of Future focus-australias-skills-and-workforce-development-needs-discussion-paper

  1. 1. 1Future focusAustralias skills and workforcedevelopment needsDiscussion PaperJuly 2012
  2. 2. Future focus: Australias skills andworkforce development needsA discussion paper for the 2012 National WorkforceDevelopment StrategyJuly2012
  3. 3. PurposeofthediscussionpaperTheAustralianWorkforceandProductivityAgency(theAgency)hasdevelopedthispapertopresentitsresearchoncurrentissuesinrelationtoproductivityandworkforceparticipation,examineissuesinrelationtofuturedemandfromindustryandstarttoexplorepolicyoptions.ThepaperinvitesstakeholderinputonthesematterspriortotheAgencyprovidingadvicetogovernmentinlate2012.TheCommonwealthGovernmentsetuptheAgencytoundertakeresearchregardingthefuturenatureofworkinAustraliaandtosupportanewpartnershipwithindustrytodetermineskillsandworkforcedevelopmentneedsandtoimprovetheproductivityofenterprises.AustralianWorkforceFutures,publishedin2010,establishedtheworkforcecapabilitythatwillberequiredto2025,theindustriesthatareexpectedtogrowandthequalificationsneededunderthreedifferentscenariosforthefuture.Italsoconsideredwhatisholdingusbackfromachievingthisandexploredstrategiestoaddresstheseissues.The2012strategywilltakethisworkfurther.Toinformthestrategy,theAgencyisinvitingdiscussiononthewayAustraliaapproachesandsupportsworkforcedevelopmentatanational,industryandenterpriselevel.ThisDiscussionPaperformspartofawiderconsultationprocess.Itoutlinesbroadissuesandseeksanswerstoquestions.Itisnotintendedtobeadraftstrategy,nordoesitestablishthebalanceofissuesthatwillbeexaminedinthestrategyitself.Policyframeworksandactionswillbeconsideredafteracarefulexaminationoftheissuesraisedandinformationgathered.Youareinvitedtoprovidesubmissionstothe2012NationalWorkforceDevelopmentStrategy.YourinputwillhelpustoidentifyandexplorecriticalissuesinworkforcedevelopmentforAustraliato2025.Thedeadlineforsubmissionsis27August2012.Furtherinformationaboutthesubmissionprocessandconsultationsessionsisavailableonourwebsitewww.awpa.gov.auUnlessyourequestotherwise,submissionswillbemadepubliclyavailableviathewebsite.Submissionscanbesentto:workforcedevelopment@awpa.gov.auormailedto:Submissions,SkillsandWorkforceDevelopmentPolicyAustralianWorkforceandProductivityAgencyGPOBox9839CANBERRAACT2601
  4. 4. ContentsForewordiiiListofacronymsandabbreviationsvExecutiveSummary1Introduction3ChapterOne:Wherearewenow?51.1Productivity51.1.1Whatisourproductivitygrowthdoingandwhy?51.1.2HowdoesAustraliacompare?71.2Innovation81.2.1Australiaontheworldstage91.2.2Wherearethegapsinourskillsforinnovation?91.3Issuesinparticipation101.3.1Low-skilledandunskilledworkers111.3.2Men121.3.3Women131.3.4Olderworkers141.3.5AboriginalandTorresStraitIslanderpeople151.3.6Peoplewithdisability151.4Regionalissues161.4.1Regionaldevelopment171.4.2Regionalparticipation181.5Whereareweatwithskills?231.5.1Thechangingnatureofwork231.5.2Entry-leveljobsandnoviceworkers241.5.3Changingskillrequirements241.5.4Skillsforsustainability261.5.5DevelopinganAsiacapableworkforce261.5.6Migration27ChapterTwo:Whatmightthefuturehold?302.1Scenarios302.1.1Whyuseascenarioapproach?302.1.2Developingthescenarios302.1.3Commonalitiesacrossscenarios33
  5. 5. 2.1.4Differencesanduncertaintiesacrossscenarios342.1.5Specifictrendsandchallengesforeachscenario352.2Modellingimplicationsandoutcomes362.2.1ModellingParameters382.2.2Employmentcompositionandgrowth392.2.3Industryforecasts:employmentimplications392.2.4Occupationalforecasts422.2.5Demandforqualifications462.2.6Supplyofqualifications532.2.7Balanceofsupplyanddemand552.2.8COAGtargetsforpersons20-64years56ChapterThree:Howdowegetthere?Achievingourvision583.1Thefutureofworkandworkplaces593.1.1Buildingmoreproductiveworkplaces603.2Transitionsbetweeneducation,trainingandwork623.3Thefutureofthetertiaryeducationandtrainingsector653.3.1Thevalueofqualifications:Dowehavetherightmix?663.3.2Ensuringqualityinthetertiarysector703.3.3Prioritiesforacapableandresponsiveeducationandtrainingsector753.4Addressingissuesinparticipation783.5Challengesofregionaldevelopment803.5.1Meetingthechallengesoftheresourcesboom803.5.2Addressingtherisksofregionalstagnation813.5.3Adoptingaflexibleapproachtoregionalandsectoraldevelopment82Conclusionandquestions83Appendix1:AustralianWorkforceFuturesprogressreport84Appendix2:UnemploymentbyselectedurbanStatisticalLocalAreas86References89
  6. 6. ListofFiguresFigure1LabourproductivityinAustralia,%change,197520116Figure2Labourproductivityindexesbyselectedindustry(Referenceyearis200910=100.0)6Figure3Grossvalueaddedperhourworked,indollars,byindustry(200910)7Figure4Labourproductivitygrowthinthetotaleconomy,AustraliaandOECD,199020108Figure5Participationratesofprimeagemales(25to54)byeducationalattainment,1981200612Figure6Participationratesofprimeagefemales(25to54)byeducationalattainment,1981200612Figure7Employmentbyindustry,MalesandFemales,aged20-74,200910(%)14Figure8Proportionofallemployedpeopleintheproductionandservicesindustries,1966201123Figure9Proportionofallemployedpeopleintheblueandwhitecollaroccupations,1966201123Figure10Graphicalillustrationof2012scenarios31Figure11Employmentcompositionbyindustry,2011and2025byscenario40Figure12EmploymentcompositionbyANZSCOMajorGroup,2011and2025byscenario43ListofTablesTable1LabourforceparticipationratesinAustralianStatesandTerritories,averageof12monthstoJanuary201218FutureFocus:DiscussionPaperiTable2Selectedfull-timeunemploymentratesbyagegroupandlabourforceregion,12monthaveragetoApril201222Table3Summaryassumptionsbyscenario39Table4Industryandoccupationtrendsunderthescenarios41Table5Top10occupationswithlargestincreaseinemploymentnumbersbymodalqualification2011202545Table6Averageannualchangeinprojecteddemandforqualifications,employed,unemployedandnotinthelabourforce20112025(%)46Table7IncreaseinemploymentofpeoplewithaCertificateIIIorabovetomeetprojecteddemand,LongBoom47Table8IncreaseinemploymentofpeoplewithaCertificateIIIorabovetomeetprojecteddemand,RingofFire47Table9Proportionofpersonsemployedbyoccupationwithapost-schoolqualification,currentandto2025(%)48Table10Numberofadditionalqualificationsrequiredperannumundereachscenario,2011to2025(000)50Table11Totalqualificationsheldbythoseemployed('000)52Table12Projectedsupplyofqualificationsbyscenarioandsource,2010and202554Table13Projectedqualificationsupplylessdemand(includingthoseunemployedornotinthelabourforce)byscenarioandqualificationtype55
  7. 7. FutureFocus:DiscussionPaperii[blankpage]
  8. 8. ForewordMessagefromtheChairPlanningforAustraliasfutureworkforceneedsisnotaneasytask,butitisanimportantone.Toliftourproductivityandbenefitfromourstrongeconomyweneedtodoourbesttoensurethatwehavethequalificationsandskillsthatweneed,whereandwhenweneedthem.Thefutureisalwaysuncertain.Aswedevelopthe2012NationalWorkforceDevelopmentStrategy,weneedtotakeaccountofuncertaintiesandrisksaswellasopportunities,bothnowandintheyearstocome.ThispaperconsiderstheskillsandworkforcedevelopmentneedsthatwouldarisefromanumberofdifferentscenariosforAustraliasfuture,ratherthanmakingonesingleprojection.Inputtingforwardthispaperfordiscussion,weseektheinsightsofourstakeholdersintocurrentandfutureissuesinworkforcedevelopmentforAustraliaandhowtheymaybestbeaddressed.Yourviewswillbetakenintoconsiderationindevelopingthefinalreportandrecommendations.Thispapercannotbecompletelycomprehensiveinitscoverage,andwerelyonyoutoalertustokeyissueswemayhaveoverlooked,ordifferentpointsofviewthatwehavenottakenintoaccount.Wevalueyourinputandlookforwardtofruitfuldiscussionsasweworktogethertowardsthedevelopmentoftheupdatedstrategy,tobereleasedlaterthisyear.FutureFocus:DiscussionPaperiiiPhilipBullockChair
  9. 9. FutureFocus:DiscussionPaperiv[blankpage]
  10. 10. FutureFocus:DiscussionPapervListofacronymsandabbreviationsABSAustralianBureauofStatisticsACCIAustralianChamberofCommerceandIndustryACPETAustralianCouncilforPrivateEducationandTrainingACTUAustralianCouncilofTradeUnionsAiGroupAustralianIndustryGroupAQFAustralianQualificationsFrameworkASSAAcademyofSocialSciencesinAustraliaASQAAustralianSkillsQualityAuthorityATARAustralianTertiaryAdmissionRankAWPAAustralianWorkforceandProductivityAgencyBERDBusinessExpenditureonResearchandDevelopmentBRICSBrazil,Russia,India,ChinaandSouthAfricaCBTCompetency-BasedTrainingCOAGCouncilofAustralianGovernmentsDAEMDeloitteAccessEconomicsMacroDSPDisabilitySupportPensionENSEmployerNominationSchemeERAEmployment,RetentionandAdvancementGDPGrossDomesticProductGFCGlobalFinancialCrisisHEHigherEducationHILDAHousehold,IncomeandLabourDynamicsinAustraliaICTInformationandCommunicationsTechnologyLLNLanguage,LiteracyandNumeracyLLNPLanguageLiteracyandNumeracyProgramLSAYLongitudinalSurveysofAustralianYouthNASWDNationalAgreementforSkillsandWorkforceDevelopmentNBNNationalBroadbandNetworkNCVERNationalCentreforVocationalEducationResearchNILSNationalInstituteofLabourStudiesNSSCNationalSkillsStandardsCouncilNTCNationalTradeCadetshipNVEACNationalVETEquityAdvisoryCouncilOECDOrganisationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopmentPISAProgramforInternationalStudentAssessment
  11. 11. FutureFocus:DiscussionPaperviPPPProductivityPlacesProgramR&DResearchandDevelopmentRTORegisteredTrainingOrganisationSCOTESEStandingCouncilonTertiaryEducation,SkillsandEmploymentSESSocioeconomicstatusSLAStatisticalLocalAreaSOLSkilledOccupationsListSpOLSpecialisedOccupationsListSTEMScience,Technology,EngineeringandMathematicsTAFETechnicalandFurtherEducationTDATAFEDirectorsAustraliaTDCTAFEDevelopmentCentreTEQSATertiaryEducationQualityandStandardsAgencyVETVocationalEducationandTrainingWDSDPCWorkforceDevelopment,SupplyandDemandPrincipalCommitteeWELLWorkplaceEnglishLanguageandLiteracy
  12. 12. ExecutiveSummaryWhatchallengesfaceourworkforcenowandovertheyearsto2025?Howshouldweaddressthem?ThispaperinvitesdiscussionanddebateonissuesthatcouldpotentiallyconstrainAustraliasgrowthpotentialandourcapacitytoshareourprosperityequitablyandsustainablyamongourpopulation.ProgresshasbeenmadeinsomekeyareasrelatingtoworkforcedevelopmentsinceFutureFocus:DiscussionPaper1AustralianWorkforceFuture