Future energy scenario of the world

Presentation By :

Hira Shafiq 1763

Fiza Waheed 1783

Humaira Jamil 1765

Asma Sattar 1774

Energy scenario

Alternative images of how the future might unfold and are an appropriate tool with which to analyze how driving forces may influence future emission outcomes and to assess the associated uncertainties

Top Scenarios

• Global Energy Scenarios to 2050 and beyond, Energy Data Center, WEC

• World Energy Outlook 2004 (to be published on October 26, 2004)

• International Energy Agency

• International Energy Outlook 2004, EIA, US Department of Energy

• Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050 Shell Scenarios

• World Energy, Technology and Climate Policy Outlook 2030, EC

Past

•Use natural form of energy• Wood used as fire•Then fossil fuel start form• Transportation industry • Domestic purpose•Other energy production•Nuclear power, hydral power etc

Fossil

World energy consumption from 1820 to 2000

Present condition

• Depleted non renewable resources• Problem of sustainable production• Problem of environmental pollution• Climate change

Energy demand and emissions have doubled in the past 40 years

Effect of fossil fuel burning

Effect of fossil fuel

Due fossil fuel burning human being are suffering from different diseases• Asthma• Lung infection• Respiratory disease• cancer

Future

• next few decades “OR” larger temporal scale of centuries

• Maximum sustainable yield

harvest rate renewable rate• prefer renewable resources or alternative

of a common resource • Promote reuse and recycling

Three hard truths about energy supply

In our future and also now a days

1) Change in energy use

2) struggle to keep rate

3) Environmental stresses

Change in energy use

• Demand pressures will stimulate more efficiency in energy use

Efficient transport Efficient industry Efficient buildings Efficient appliances

Efficient transport

• Biodiesel engine• hydrogen fuel or

electrical motors

Electric vehicles need to come of age

© OECD/IEA 2012

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0

50

100

150

200FCEV

Electricity

Plug-in hybrid diesel

Plug-in hybrid gasoline

Diesel hybrid

Gasoline hybrid

CNG/LPG

Diesel

Gasoline

Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles

Glo

bal p

asse

nger

LDV

sal

es (m

illio

n)

Efficient industry

• Good insulation• Efficient motors• Try to build their

own energy units

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000Other industries

Chemicals and pe-trochemicals

Aluminium

Pulp and paper

Iron and steel

Cement

2 DS

Industry must become more efficient

© OECD/IEA 2012

Significant potential for enhanced energy efficiency can be achieved through best available technologies.

GtC

O2

Efficient buildings

• Use natural heating • Insulating system must be good• Green roofs• More windows• Use shadow plants

Efficient appliances

• Energy savers • Solar streets lights• Small heating units • Efficient Aluminum

sheets on globs

struggle to keep rate

• In 2015 -25• growth rate not equals to

demand rate• Alternative resources use • Mostly biological(Less env.

Impacts )• For a short time economic

shock( developing countries)

Environmental stresses

• If it possible to maintain current share of fossil fuel then pollution increases

• More diseases • Many sensitive

Ecosystem destroy

• World population has more than doubled since 1950 and is set to increase by 40% by 2050

• . Population and GDP will grow strongly in non-OECD countries and China and India are just starting their journey on the energy ladder.

population range

Climbing in energy ladder

 Preparing for future

• governments and companies are positioning for longer-term alternatives

• new infrastructures build • CSS (carbon dioxide capture and storage )• older inefficient ones need to be

decommissioned.

• Awareness in public sectors is more• Laws for environment. Degradations• Strike rules on fossil fuel use and

other degrading energy units

Energy Technology Perspectives

• The 6°C Scenario (6DS•  The 4°C Scenario (4DS)• The 2°C Scenario (2DS)

The 6°C Scenario (6DS)

By 2050, energy use almost doubles (compared with 2009) and total GHG emissions rise even more.

In the absence of efforts to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of GHGs, average global temperature rise is projected to be at least 6°C in the long term.

The 6DS is broadly consistent with the World Energy Outlook Current Policy Scenario through 2035.

The 4°C Scenario (4DS)

• recent pledges made by countries to limit emissions

• limit emissions and step up efforts to improve energy efficiency.

• Projecting a long-term temperature rise of 4°C.• an ambitious scenario that requires significant

changes in policy and  technologies.• capping the temperature increase at 4°C

requires significant additional cuts in emissions in the period after 2050.

The 2°C Scenario (2DS)

• This is a very aggressive target.• 80% chance of limiting  average global

temperature increase to 2°C.•  cutting energy-related CO2 emissions

by more than half in 2050 (compared with 2009).

• the goal can only be achieved provided that CO2 and GHG emissions in non-energy sectors are also reduced.

Comparison

Four broad energy scenarios

1. Techno-explosion

2. Techno-stability

3. Energy descent

4. Collapse

Techno-explosion: depends on new, large and

concentrated energy sources allows the continual growth in

material wealth generally associated with space

travel to colonize other planets.

Techno-stability

depends on a seem less conversion from material growth based on depleting energy

to a steady state in consumption of resources

and population all based on novel use of renewable

energies

and technologies

ENERGY DESCENT

a reduction of economic activity, complexity and population

reason is depletion of fossil fuels less consumption of energy and

resources importance of biological resources

like fossil fuelsForests will regain their traditional

status as symbol of wealth

COLLAPSE

Failure of the whole range of interlocked systems that maintain and support industrial society

High quality fossil fuels are depleted Damaged the ecosystem it would inevitably involve a major

“die-off” of human population and loss of knowledge and infrastructure needed for industrialization

Recommendations to Governments

© OECD/IEA 2012

1. Create an investment climate of confidence in clean energy

2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden fuel” of the future

3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D)

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Thank You