Future energy demand technologies: the information ageSmart energy systems

Cliff Elwell

MRes residential week 2011

29th September 2011

Overview

• Review the incumbent energy system and demographics• Smart meters, smart grids and smart energy• System operation• Consumers, data and communications• Summary

4 pillars of energy policy

Energy policy

Economics (affordability)

Security of supply Environment Social policy

objectives

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

UK

Ener

gy C

onsu

mpti

on b

y se

ctor

(tho

usan

d to

nnes

of o

il eq

uiva

lent

)

Other (agriculture, public admin, commerce)

Domestic

Transport - air

Transport - water

Transport - rail

Transport - road

Industry

Source: DECC

UK end-use energy consumption trends by sector (1970-2009)

Source: BERR, 2008

Number of UK households with appliances

The UK energy system: appliances

• Appliances are a small but significant contribution to UK energy demand

Source: BERR, 2008

Energy consumption in the UK

• Other final uses are primarily agriculture, public administration and commerce

Source: DECC, 2010

Excludes transport and agricultureSource: DECC, 2010

UK demographics • Population forecast:

62 million now 77 million 2050

• Ageing population

Energy use?

• 75% of growth is accounted for by population growth Source: Department for Communities and Local Government, 2009

Projection of the number of households in the UK

• Households increase

• 21M of today’s homes will still exist in 2050

• 20 housing archetypes comprise 60% of the housing stock

(DECC, 2010)

Fuel poverty in the UK: a reminder

What is the energy system?

Note down:• Examples of stakeholders• What is its function?• What are the boundaries of the system?

What is the energy system?

• Stakeholders• Generators, transmission network operator, distribution

network operator, supplier, equipment suppliers, maintenance crews, consumers, builders, building services engineers… Too many to list!

• Functions• The primary function of the energy system is to meet the

needs of customers.• What are the boundaries of the system?

• A definition may serve as a conceptual tool but energy cannot be separated from any function of modern society.

The GB energy system: electricity demand

Typical GB Electricity Demand Profiles (Winter & Summer Days)(Data source: National Grid)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

GB

Ele

ctri

city

Dem

and

(M

W)

Time of Day (half-hourly periods)

Typical Winter Day

Typical Summer Day

• High variability in gas demand• System operation challenges if heat pumps are run like boilers

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

GB D

aily

Nat

ural

Gas

Dem

and

(mcm

per

day

)

GB gas demand (National Grid) Local gas demand: 65 houses

Gas demand in GB

UK energy system – electricityNo vertical integration!

Supply

Large number of companies No vertical integration

DistributionNatural monopoly 14 UK regions; 8 companies

TransmissionNatural monopoly National Grid

GenerationUK mostly large scale Range of companies

The future energy system

The UK energy system: balancing

• Increase in inflexible plant

• Balancing may be expensive Magnitude of load changes Low utilisation Non-optimal operation of CCS

Source: DECC; pathway alpha

The UK energy system: security of supply

• Electricity system reliability Highly interconnected Outages rare

• Average <1 hr per year per customer

• Average <1 interruption per year per customer

But system designed for gas heating and non-electrified transport

And ageing infrastructure And decreasing capacity

margin• Energy gap?

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

£ m

illio

ns

Asset Age (years)

Asset Age Profile by Replacement Value (2007)

Transmission

Distribution

Data source: Electricity Networks Association

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

England & Wales

South of Scotland

North of Scotland

Northern Ireland

Tota

l tra

nsm

issi

on &

dis

trib

ution

ass

ets

(cir

cuit-

km)

Distribution

Transmission

Source: ENA

How long are the networks?

The UK energy system: heat

• Heat was 45% of energy end use consumption in 2008

• Ageing building stock: poor insulation

• Transition of heating type:– Gas Electricity

• Peak demand?– Reinforcement– Peaking generation

• Trials to validate future scenarios

The UK energy system: transport

• Electrification of transport– But availability of imported biofuels critical– Battery costs, performance, longevity etc

• Locally high uptakes of EVs and PHEVs may occur sooner than UK trend

Source: DfT, 2008

The UK energy system: electricity demand

Estimated national averaged load profile (winter peak) for full penetration of heat pumps and electric vehicles (Strbac, 2010)

Technical functional requirements of the energy system

• Interoperability• Future proof• Support the electrification of

heat and transport• Enable high penetrations of

distributed generation to connect

• Increase system efficiency

• Maintain or improve security of supply

• Facilitate high penetrations of inflexible generation plant

• Facilitate end user participation

Smart energy systems

Is smart energy part of the solution?

The smart energy system

Definition

• Intelligently integrates the actions of all supply and demand side users

• Efficient delivery of sustainable, economic and secure energy

• Monitoring and control to enhance system performance

• May integrate multiple energy vectors to effectively deliver services to customers

• Alternative smart concepts

Components:• Smart meter• Smart grid

Broader:• Smart city • Smart community

Information and control in the smart grid

World Economic Forum, 2009

What aspects of a smart grid can be defined?1

• Broad technical functionality: system requirements• Consumer outcomes• Core, mandated, components and specifications

– Smart meters– Data Communications Company etc

But• A cost-benefit case must be met for non-mandated components

– Competing smart, and dumb, technologies– Physical definition is not possible– Is value-chain definition possible?

Despite this• Models of potential end states structure thinking, provide the basis for

discussion and are necessary for the development of smart grids

1Assuming a market with regulated consumer and environmental outcomes, but minimal vertical integration or central policy to define the components of a smart grid.

System operation

Source: Dyrelund, 2009

Heat Plan Denmark: an illustration of fuel flexibility in district heating systems

Storage

“Real”:

Virtual (demand side management DSM):

System operation…

How would you operate the system under:- “Normal” conditions- High wind, low demand scenario- Low wind, high demand scenario

… back to slide 30

Example system management

“Normal” operation

High wind, low demand

Less

Charge

Low wind, high demand

Less

Dis-

charge

Complementary functions

• Complementary functions Demand management Storage Fuel shifting

• How do we heat? Heat pumps Boilers CHP District High penetrations of low

carbon technologies

• Shift operation with no loss of service: Heating Appliance operation Charging

• Availability?• Required tariffs?• Service offerings?

Consumers

Consumer requirements

• Lighting• Appliances• Space heating and cooling• Water heating• Cooking• Transport• Industrial processes

Consumers and smart energy• Consumer participation in the markets• Behavioural change

– An increasing realisation that behavioural change doesn’t necessarily mean consumers changing day-to-day habits – purchases and use of control systems.

• Privacy and security of data?– A spy in your fridge?

Costs, benefits and business

(Mott MacDonald, 2007)

Costs and benefits of smart meters to UK suppliers

Distribution network reinforcement costs in Coventry.

HV: high voltage; LV: low voltage; BaU: business as usual (Strbac, 2010)

Business models

• Interlinked business models a major challenge for smart systems– Little evidence for coherence from any stakeholders– Focus on “own world”– Increased acceptance that regulation and frameworks are required– Investment and reward are not currently aligned appropriately to

attract investment

Data, communications and high-tech solutions

Data services and communications

• Data services– Critically dependent upon regulation and consumer acceptance– The potential and value of data services is often underestimated

• New offerings• Targeted marketing• Core enabler of functionality

– New entrants and many in academia/industry: potential huge impact

• Communications– Battle of the systems/protocols

– Appliances• Working• Fault/problems

– Industrial processes

• Networks– Component stress

• Temperature• Performance

– Automatic network optimisation– Fault finding and isolation

• Consumers– Heating, cooling and ventilation

• Heat pump operation• Air conditioning• Water heating

System diagnostics and optimisation

Energy management systems

• Respond to price signals Real time TOU tariffs Programmable Participation in the market

• User friendly Simple interface Override Customisable Remote control

• Learning Storage potential

• Electrical• Thermal

Usage profile

• Effect? Energy use Service provision User acceptance

Wrapping up

Smart systems could increase or decrease CO2

Source of CO2 reduction Smart system role

Reduced use of high CO2 peaking plant Demand management and storage

Timely connection of low CO2 distributed generation

System monitoring and control (e.g. dynamic line ratings)

Reduction in energy use Energy management and behavioural change

Installation of appropriate energy saving measures in property

High quality consumer specific data

System optimisation Monitoring and controlling devices remotely or automatically

Voltage optimisation Advanced monitoring and control

Low carbon generation Demand management and storage to provide economic system management

Smart energy system

Network management:•Advanced dynamic load and storage control

Business•TOU tariffs•New services•Proven cost-effective

Storage

Generation

Appliances and other loads

Heat: dynamic

Diagnostics and control

MEET FUNCTIONAL REQUIREMENTS: CONSUMERS’, ENVIRONMENT, COSTS AND TECHNICAL

Smart energy systems in the UK: summary

• Electrification of heat and transport will create system challenges

• Increase in number of households

• 80% reduction in CO2 from 1990 levels required by 2050

• Meeting consumers’ requirements is key

Can new products create consumer-pull to low carbon technologies and system management strategies?

• Smart energy systems may:

Support system operation

Enhance customer experience

Lower CO2 emissions

... But they might not be the most cost effective solution

Smart grid definition: Electricity Networks Strategy Group• A Smart Grid … can intelligently integrate the actions of all users connected to

it - generators, consumers … to efficiently deliver sustainable, economic and secure electricity supplies.

• A Smart Grid employs communications, innovative products and services together with intelligent monitoring and control technologies to:– Facilitate connection and operation of generators of all sizes and technologies– Enable the demand side to play a part in optimising the operation of the system– Extend system balancing into distribution and the home– Significantly reduce the environmental impact of the total electricity supply system– Provide consumers with greater information and choice of supply

• Deliver required levels of reliability, flexibility, quality and security of supply

Storage and DSM may support system operation

Energy delivery vector

Storage medium Speed of response

Duration of response

Cost Black start

Key services

Balancing

Peak shift

Heat

Electricity Batteries ££££

Pumped H2O + ££££

Thermal energy Thermal fabric £

Hot water £

System inertia - Heat accumulators £££

Seasonal storage + £££?

Electricity and heat Fuel (CHP + boilers) + ££

Demand management N/A ££