11

Future Commercial Aircraft Future Commercial Aircraft

Professor Andrew WalkerProfessor Andrew WalkerChristine BowlingChristine Bowling

November 2008November 2008

AEROSPACE MARKETAEROSPACE MARKET

CLASSIFICATION OF AEROSPACE MARKET CLASSIFICATION OF AEROSPACE MARKET ACCORDING TO AIRCRAFT TYPEACCORDING TO AIRCRAFT TYPE

-TurbopropTurboprop

- JetJet

- PistonPiston

- TurbopropTurboprop

- BizjetBizjet

- CivilCivil

- MilitaryMilitary

-Fighter-Fighter

-Ground -Ground attackerattacker

-BomberBomber

-TrainerTrainer

-UAVUAV

-Satellite Satellite

-Launch Launch VehicleVehicle

REGIONAL REGIONAL

JETJET

GENERAL GENERAL

AVIATIONAVIATION

HELICOPTERHELICOPTER DEFENCEDEFENCE SPACESPACE

$7.7bn$7.7bn $11.4bn$11.4bn $9.2bn$9.2bn $36.9bn$36.9bn $17.2bn$17.2bnGlobalGlobal

MarketMarket

20082008

COMMERCIAL COMMERCIAL

AEROSPACEAEROSPACE

$51.0bn$51.0bn

-Narrow-body Narrow-body AircraftAircraft

- Wide-body Wide-body AircraftAircraft

33

A G E N D AA G E N D A

1.1. Commercial DemandCommercial Demand

2.2. Future AircraftFuture Aircraft

3.3. Composites – Design & ManufacturingComposites – Design & Manufacturing

4.4. Carbon FibreCarbon Fibre

44

1. Commercial – Demand Forecast1. Commercial – Demand Forecast

55

World Passenger Air Travel in 2008World Passenger Air Travel in 2008

25.9%

2.5%

9.5%

14%

14.1%

3.5%

4.2%

12.6%

2.6%

1.4%9.7%

9.7%

16.4% in 202218.4% in 2022

Region 1999-2008 2009-2018 1999-2018

Africa 203 354 457

Asia, Oceania and CIS 1664 2844 4508

Europe 2794 3221 6015

Middle East 285 270 555

Central America, Caribbean & South America

652 734 1386

North America 3304 3925 7229

Total 8902 11248 20150

AIRCRAFT DELIVERIESAIRCRAFT DELIVERIES

66

Fuel BurnFuel Burn

50% reduction in fuel consumption per passenger by 202020% more efficient engines

30% advanced airframes (CFRP) and aerodynamics

Streamlined ATM?

“Triple the number of passengers flying by 2020”

Need to reduce emissions by 65% or better?

20 June 2005 oil hits ~ $60 per barrel in the Far East!

At $60 Barrel - Aircraft Operations lost $6.2 billion in 2005

NB: Profit of $6 billion would represent an operating margin of 3%

21 April 2006 oil hits ~ $75 per barrel in New York

Cathay Pacific – 12% wasted fuel

20 November 2007 oil hits ~$100 per barrel

77

Low Mass Transport SystemsLow Mass Transport Systems

• It is common convention to describe Newton’s 2nd Law

• Thus if we reduce the mass of a moving object, we reduce the energy required to move it.

• The passenger to weight ratio of a vehicle or aircraft is a key measure of its energy consumption efficiency.

Force = Mass x Acceleration

Paradox – rising fuel costs and increasing vehicle/airframe weights

88

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

2000

1998

2002

750

950

1050

1150

1250

1350

850

1450

1550

FordEscort MK2

FordEscort MK3

FordEscort MK4

FordEscort MK5

FordFocus

VWGolf Mk1

VWGolf Mk2

VWGolf Mk3

VWGolf Mk4

2004

Citroen GS

Citroen BX

VWGolf Mk5

Citroen ZX

Citroen XsaraToyota

Corolla

ToyotaCorolla

ToyotaCorolla

ToyotaCorolla

ToyotaCorolla

ToyotaCorolla

AstraMk1

AstraMk2

AstraMk3

AstraMk4

AstraMk5

VauxhallCavalier Mk1 Cavalier

Mk2

Cavalier Mk3

Vectra 1

Vectra 2

YEARS

KgVehicle Weight by Generation

Source: Jaguar

Weight per passengerWeight per passenger

BOEING 707

1954, 700kg/passenger

AIRBUS A380

2008, 1,100kg/passenger

(Approx. 430k litres of fuel per day)

An Economic CrisisAn Economic Crisis

“ “ COMMERCIAL AVIATION is a mature COMMERCIAL AVIATION is a mature industry at the end of its current product life industry at the end of its current product life cycle, our Industry requires a more efficient cycle, our Industry requires a more efficient aircraft – a composite airframe, advanced aircraft – a composite airframe, advanced engines and electric systems!”engines and electric systems!”

or Business Opportunityor Business Opportunity!

• Airbus A320 $61-$67m (inc. discount) – Annual full bill $20mAirbus A320 $61-$67m (inc. discount) – Annual full bill $20m

• JET ‘A’ Fuel $0.71 per gallon in 2002. $3.92 JET ‘A’ Fuel $0.71 per gallon in 2002. $3.92 → $4.65 in 2008 (Forecast $2.70/gal, → $4.65 in 2008 (Forecast $2.70/gal,

2009)2009)

• Fuel is 50-60% of operators costFuel is 50-60% of operators cost

• If we cut fuel burn by 30%, we save $6m/yr per single aisleIf we cut fuel burn by 30%, we save $6m/yr per single aisle

• A320 order book ~ 2450 aircraft, build rate ~35 aircraft per monthA320 order book ~ 2450 aircraft, build rate ~35 aircraft per month

• Airbus likely to build 4000-5000 single aisle aircraft over the next 10 yearsAirbus likely to build 4000-5000 single aisle aircraft over the next 10 years

• General inflation will start feeding into manufacturing cost of metallic aircraft in General inflation will start feeding into manufacturing cost of metallic aircraft in

2009 and there is no room absorb increased prices. -2009 and there is no room absorb increased prices. - lean lean

programmes running.programmes running.

Air France A320 fleeting is 20+ years old and needs replacing!Air France A320 fleeting is 20+ years old and needs replacing!

Evolution or RevolutionEvolution or Revolution

• New efficient designs sell for premium prices! (B787 Vs B767, B747-8 Vs B747 Classic)New efficient designs sell for premium prices! (B787 Vs B767, B747-8 Vs B747 Classic)

OptionsOptions

• A320 enhanced, 4-5% Fuel saving, aircraft “sales” value $64m-$70m each (2010)A320 enhanced, 4-5% Fuel saving, aircraft “sales” value $64m-$70m each (2010)

• Revised A320 with GTF powered engine (Geared Turbo Fan), 12-18% fuel saving (2014)Revised A320 with GTF powered engine (Geared Turbo Fan), 12-18% fuel saving (2014)

• New A32X Composite Airframe/Electric Systems/GTF Engine, 30% fuel saving? New A32X Composite Airframe/Electric Systems/GTF Engine, 30% fuel saving?

- aircraft sales value $80 – $90m each (2016) - aircraft sales value $80 – $90m each (2016)

• 400 aircraft per year @ $20m → $8bn extra sales400 aircraft per year @ $20m → $8bn extra sales

• ““CHICKEN AND EGG” (Pratt & Witney laid the egg!)CHICKEN AND EGG” (Pratt & Witney laid the egg!)

• Retention value of existing metallic fleet Vs replacement requirementsRetention value of existing metallic fleet Vs replacement requirements

• Customers want new aircraft now!Customers want new aircraft now!

• Will Boeing lead Airbus?Will Boeing lead Airbus?

• New mainstream single aisle manufacturer?New mainstream single aisle manufacturer?

“ “ A Revolutionary Idea changes the existing paradigm”A Revolutionary Idea changes the existing paradigm”

AIRBUS A320 ENHANCEDAIRBUS A320 ENHANCED

• EVOLUTION!EVOLUTION!

1414

DC3

Aluminium Aeroplane

War Technology

Merlin EnginePressured Cabin – Boeing 307

Constellation

TWA

707, Swept Wing, Jets

Pan-Am

747

A300A380

787

Composites

Jetliner - 102

Comet

Tu-104

DC-10

1930’s 1940’s 1960’s 1970’s 2004

De-regulation

Timeline

Boeing 707 Golden Anniversary

Activity Index

Flying Wing

Approx. 30% improvement over 50

years

30% efficiency improvement over 5-10

years

Commercial AircraftEUREKAEUREKA

TIMESTIMES

1927 – 1932 Biplanes to Monoplanes1927 – 1932 Biplanes to Monoplanes

Vickers Vernon (1927)Vickers Vernon (1927) Boeing 247 (1932)Boeing 247 (1932)

• Metal ConstructionMetal Construction

• Monocoque (Stressed-Skin) ConstructionMonocoque (Stressed-Skin) Construction

• Cantilevered WingCantilevered Wing

• Variable Pitch PropellerVariable Pitch Propeller

• Reliable EngineReliable Engine

• Retractable Landing GearRetractable Landing Gear

Armstrong Whitworth ArgosyArmstrong Whitworth Argosy

““An Operators Perspective” An Operators Perspective”

• 115 Aircraft115 Aircraft

- 15, B747-40015, B747-400 (14+ hours/day)(14+ hours/day)- 13, B747-400F13, B747-400F (14 hours/day)(14 hours/day)- 58, B777-200/200ER/30058, B777-200/200ER/300 (15+ hours/day)(15+ hours/day)- 19, B777-300ER19, B777-300ER (14 hours/day)(14 hours/day)- 5, A340-5005, A340-500 (16+ hours/day)(16+ hours/day)- 5, A380-8005, A380-800

44thth largest airline in terms of international (RPK) Revenue Pax largest airline in terms of international (RPK) Revenue Pax KilometreKilometre

22ndnd largest airline in terms of FTK (Freight Tonnage Kilometre) largest airline in terms of FTK (Freight Tonnage Kilometre)

FLEET OPERATION CHARACTERISTICSFLEET OPERATION CHARACTERISTICS

• “Operating a demanding deployment pattern while not compromising safety and high service standard demands reduction or elimination of unscheduled flight interruptions”.

• The challenge “To create high reliability in an environment fraught with uncertainties”

CorrosionCorrosion: 33% of aluminium floor beams replaced in B747-400 after 5 years : 33% of aluminium floor beams replaced in B747-400 after 5 years (25 man hours each beam)(25 man hours each beam)

No corrosion in CFRP B777-200/300s after 10 years!No corrosion in CFRP B777-200/300s after 10 years!

The Maintenance BagThe Maintenance Bag

Corrosion

Costs

RepairabilityWeight

Fatigue

Reliability

WorriesWorries1.1. Insidious mode of failure.Insidious mode of failure. Aluminium Cracking Propagation is well Aluminium Cracking Propagation is well

understood.understood.

February 1989, SIA, “ Composite Rudder Panel bulging & billowing wind” (3 February 1989, SIA, “ Composite Rudder Panel bulging & billowing wind” (3 months repair + similar defect on 2 other aircraft)months repair + similar defect on 2 other aircraft)

2.2. Susceptibility to HeatSusceptibility to Heat Cold and Heat “SIA lost a portion of thrust Cold and Heat “SIA lost a portion of thrust reverse in reverse in

December 2007”. Overheating of CFRP by hot air. Cold also a problem -December 2007”. Overheating of CFRP by hot air. Cold also a problem -5050°c!°c!

3.3. Full or Zero Repair ApproachFull or Zero Repair Approach “Quick & dirty option”“Quick & dirty option”

4.4. NDT LimitationsNDT Limitations

Consequence of Unscheduled EventConsequence of Unscheduled Event

The Goal is to eliminate all The Goal is to eliminate all unscheduled eventsunscheduled events

ConclusionsConclusions

““Composites enable us to do more with less”Composites enable us to do more with less”

““Next Quantum leap involves making Next Quantum leap involves making detection of defects and repair actions simpler detection of defects and repair actions simpler and more convenient”and more convenient”

““The ultimate challenge is to have a new The ultimate challenge is to have a new composite material that has active health composite material that has active health monitoring features embedded, to accurately monitoring features embedded, to accurately pre-empt failures”pre-empt failures”

““In this way we would be the ‘master of the In this way we would be the ‘master of the situation’ and not the servant”situation’ and not the servant”

2121

2. FUTURE AIRCRAFT – REVOLUTION!2. FUTURE AIRCRAFT – REVOLUTION!

- Payload ratioPayload ratio

- DragDrag

- ThrustThrust

2222

Timeline

A380

Eclipse 500

ARJ 21

Cessna Mustang

Honda Jet

FUTURE AIRCRAFTFUTURE AIRCRAFT

Composites

Avionics

Payloads

Blended Wing

Boeing 787

Airbus A350

Oblique Wing

Activity IndexActivity Index

((air traffic)air traffic)

(value)(value)

(performance(performance))

23

Airbus A380 (500+ passenger sector, 330 aircraft - 2008-2024)

A380 FuselageCarbon composite pressure bulkheadCarbon composite pressure bulkhead

Twin Aisle Sector (Small and Large Twins)Twin Aisle Sector (Small and Large Twins)

2525

Airbus A350Airbus A350 (large twin aisle sector ~2300 aircraft 2008 - 2024) (large twin aisle sector ~2300 aircraft 2008 - 2024)

35% of the aircraft, by weight, will be CFRP

Conventional Derivative of the A330

Original entry into service 2010

Major Redesign

Now 2012-2014

3030

Boeing 787 Dreamliner(Small Twin Aisle Sector, 3200 aircraft 2008 -

2024)

More than 50% composite aircraft

Faustian bargain with Japan, nearly 70% foreign content, wings!

Entry into service 2009 – more than ~800 orders (USD 160 billion)

3131

Single Aisle (sector 17000+ aircraft 2007-2024)Single Aisle (sector 17000+ aircraft 2007-2024)

100-200 Seats

Boeing Y1 Project (2014)

scaled version of 787?composite airframehigher aspect ratio wing design

Airbus A320 successor (2015)

higher bypass enginesextended wingspanreduced rear stabilisers

New generation centreline engine in 2014?

Bombardier CSeries (sector 5900 aircraft 2008- 2024)

PI = Range x Speed x Volume

MTOW

Flying 2008 – 15% more efficient than Airbus, Boeing or Embraer

100-150 seater – 4 models / 2 fuselage lengths – maximum take-off weight 55-66T – seating is 5 abreast 3-2 layout

A new aircraft family to fill the sweet-spot between regional jets and mid-size airlines

A318 107 seats $45m

A319 124 seats $55m

A320 150 seats $62m

B717 107 seats $40m

RJ’s 100 seats $30m

ENTRY IN SERVICE 2013ENTRY IN SERVICE 2013

Boeing Yellowstone ProjectBoeing Yellowstone Project

Yellowstone is a Boeing Commercial Airplanes project to replace its entire Civil Aircraft Yellowstone is a Boeing Commercial Airplanes project to replace its entire Civil Aircraft Portfolio. (Composite aerostructures, electrical systems and new turbofan engines)Portfolio. (Composite aerostructures, electrical systems and new turbofan engines)

Yellowstone 3 and Airbus A370Yellowstone 3 and Airbus A370350+ seats, twin deck, twin engine350+ seats, twin deck, twin engine

3939

HAWKER BEECHCRAFT PREMIER 1

First Commercial Aircraft to utilize an all composite fuselage manufactured using Cincinnati System

Adam Aircraft Honda

Total Market for Business and General Aviation

19,700 aircraft 2005 - 2014

29,800 aircraft 2014 - 2024

4040

3. COMPOSITES3. COMPOSITES

Weight Saving and AerodynamicsWeight Saving and Aerodynamics

(Payload & Drag)(Payload & Drag)

4141

Percentage of Total Take-off Weight Vimy

Commercial 1920

Vickers Viscount

1956

Modern Single Aisle

1986

Modern Long Range

1979

Concorde Supersonic

1969 Payload 17 14 24 18 9

Fuel 25 23 18 37 48

Systems Crew etc.

11 25 18 12 10

Power Plant 18 12 11 10 10

Structure 29 26 29 23 23

History shows we need to improve payload/performance by 30% to “ignite” a new Triz curve.

A300-600F Boeing 737NG Freight

A380-800F

Freighter

A400M

Payload ~30 ~26 ~26 25-28

Performance TargetsPerformance Targets

Advanced Aircraft Technologies

Weight Reduction Drag Reduction Engines

Manufacturing Design + Advanced

Materials

Aerodynamics + Composites

12% fuel saving in 2014

17%-19% saving in 20206.5% fuel saving5.5%-6.0% fuel

saving

Low Noise

29% - 31% FUEL SAVING

11%7%

4343

Composite Applications in the Composite Applications in the Aerospace MarketAerospace Market

Boeing 777 – Different composite material systems

Source: Opportunities for Composites in the Global Aerospace Market 2004-2010, E-Composites, Inc

4444

Bell Boeing V-22 OspreyBell Boeing V-22 Osprey

Interior of V-22 wing upper surface shows the integral skin and stringers in the one-piece composite structure (picture taken from book by Bill Norton)

V-22 wing for the GTA being fitted in a manufacturing fixture (picture taken from book by Bill Norton)

Assembly hall in Ridley Park August 1988 (picture taken from book by Bill Norton)

4545

46

47

50

51

52

55

5757

Composites allow a wing to be designed with a smaller wing box

Baseline B787-8 wing box aspect ratio of 10. B777-200 has a ratio of 8.7

Composites are particularly suited to very large aircraft

Slimmer wings → reduced wing area → reduced drag

5858

Airflow is the greatest single determining factor for aircraft performance

Cd A380 = 0.0133Cd A380 = 0.0133 Typical subsonic Typical subsonic transport Cd = 0.012transport Cd = 0.012

COMPOSITE MATERIAL properties allow for the design of high aspect ratio COMPOSITE MATERIAL properties allow for the design of high aspect ratio wings (increased laminar airflow and reduced turbulent airflow )wings (increased laminar airflow and reduced turbulent airflow )

REDUCED DRAG DUE TO ENHANCED AERODYNAMICSREDUCED DRAG DUE TO ENHANCED AERODYNAMICS

AERODYNAMICSAERODYNAMICS

F-8 Supercritical Wing (1973)

Laminar AirflowLaminar Airflow

Airflow stays attached to the wing. The greater the region of separated flow Airflow stays attached to the wing. The greater the region of separated flow the greater the drag.the greater the drag.

6060

Geodetic (Basketweave) PrincipleGeodetic (Basketweave) Principle

Barnes Wallis, Wellington Bomber

Spirally wound retaining wire mesh attached to a secondary structure

Geodetic line - “Shortest distance between two points on a curved surface”

Loads carried by shortest route

Eliminates internal load carrying structure

Single Aisle, Geodetic/Carbon Composite aircraftPayload of 34%

6161

Vickers 432 experimental wing

R-100 Airship Wellington Factory

GEODETIC AIRCRAFTGEODETIC AIRCRAFT

Design RulesDesign Rules

1.1. Curves not CornersCurves not Corners2.2. Linear joints rather than bolts and rivetsLinear joints rather than bolts and rivets3.3. Reduce component “part” count!Reduce component “part” count!4.4. WingsWings - high aspect ratio, avoid moving leading edge- high aspect ratio, avoid moving leading edge

- smooth surfaces- smooth surfaces- GINA shape, changing system- GINA shape, changing system- reduce monuments, front spar, ribs- reduce monuments, front spar, ribs- high flexural wing- high flexural wing- laminar airflow! (on main wing and aerofoils)- laminar airflow! (on main wing and aerofoils)- no centre wing box (streamline wing to fuselage fairing)- no centre wing box (streamline wing to fuselage fairing)

5.5. Fuselage Fuselage - “tubes” not “panels”- “tubes” not “panels”6.6. ““Small” EmpanageSmall” Empanage7.7. ““Electric” not “hydraulic”Electric” not “hydraulic”8.8. Accurate assembly, water jet cuttingAccurate assembly, water jet cutting9.9. Materials Specification – Use of different grades of carbon fibre, prepregs etc.Materials Specification – Use of different grades of carbon fibre, prepregs etc.10.10. Female MouldsFemale Moulds

STRATEGY – NEW SINGLE AISLE COMPOSITE AIRFRAME AIRCRAFTSTRATEGY – NEW SINGLE AISLE COMPOSITE AIRFRAME AIRCRAFT

Vertical Integration

Design for “Use” (Design for Manufacture)

Optimized Virtual Design

Netshape woven textiles – Advanced Materials

Low Cost Processing

Net Shape Composites

Low Cost Assembly

Self Monitoring (NDT)

Self Healing

25% Wt Saving - 25% reduction in manufacturing costs – 25% reduction in operating costs

Timescales

0-3 years 3 years 5 years 6 yearsLow hanging fruit Simple Primary Medium to Large Primary Wings & Fuselage

- interiors ribs rear pressure bulkhead complete fuselage

- secondary structures stringers tail sector wings

- fuel pipes floor beams complex and thick sections engines

general aviation components composite pylons

Philosophy

Background Scope ConstraintsObjectives Assumptions Resources Deliverables Output Value

Operators SpecificationOperators Specification Design Concept Detailed Design Design Concept Detailed Design Design Fix Design Fix ManufacturerManufacturer

Year A320 A330-A340 A340-600 A380 A400M Total

2007 371 71 10 1 0 453

2008 389 77 12 8 1 487

2009 414 87 10 30 12 553

2010 414 89 10 50 19 582

Year A350 A32X

2014 3 0

2015 65 (140) 4

2016 100 (140) 80 (150)

2017 110 (140) 370 (360)

2018 130 (140) 460 (480)

Year B787 Y1

2007 0

2008 7

2009 49

2010 96

2011 148

2012 180

2013 200

2014 200 1

2015 200 65

2016 225 180

2017 200 260

2018 200 450

FORECAST DELIVER FOR NEW AIRCRAFTFORECAST DELIVER FOR NEW AIRCRAFT

A350 & A32X (NEW SINGLE AISLE)A350 & A32X (NEW SINGLE AISLE)

BOEING – B787 & Y1 (NEW SINGLE AISLE)BOEING – B787 & Y1 (NEW SINGLE AISLE)

The above are aircraft delivery dates, components generally enter the supply chain 2-3 years before delivery of the first aircraft.The above are aircraft delivery dates, components generally enter the supply chain 2-3 years before delivery of the first aircraft.

Both Airbus and Boeing estimate aircraft demand to be about 1000 large passenger aircraft from 2009. However, when we add forecast build Both Airbus and Boeing estimate aircraft demand to be about 1000 large passenger aircraft from 2009. However, when we add forecast build numbers, the total is ~1270 aircraft/year (from 2010). Passenger travel is growing at around 6% per year. It therefore seems likely that the “1000” numbers, the total is ~1270 aircraft/year (from 2010). Passenger travel is growing at around 6% per year. It therefore seems likely that the “1000” number is a serious underestimate.number is a serious underestimate.

4. CARBON FIBRE4. CARBON FIBRE

Future Demand for an Advanced MaterialFuture Demand for an Advanced Material

Estimated Carbon Fibre Demand (Tonnes) Estimated Carbon Fibre Demand (Tonnes) 2006-2020 2006-2020

Confirmed Scenario

Forecast Scenario

Aluminium Model

2006

2010

2020

2020

2020

Civil Aviation Existing aircraft (A320, B777 etc) B747 Replacement B777 Replacement A380 A350 B787 New B737 and A32X

3,700 200 - 100 -

5,200 2,000 - 3,000 -

3,400 2,000 2,700 6,000 15,000

2,000 2,600 6,000 2,200 8,500 6,000 15,000

Military Fighters, transport, helicopters

900

1,250

1,800

2,600

Regional Aircraft and Business Jets

230 488 625 1,200

Total

5,130 11,938 31,525 46,100

Wind Energy

3,750 7,500 20,000 60,000

Sports

5,420 6,660 8,330 9,000

Industrial (including gas tanks)

11,660 16,666 25,830 50,000

Other uses (including anti-ballistic & medical)

1,000 1,000 1,000 2,000

Grand total

26,960 43,764 86,685 167,100 364,000