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Transcript of Future Agenda 2009 pdf -JL Nueno
Initial Perspectives
Copyright © 2009 Future Agenda
www.futureagenda.org
Edited by Tim Jones and Caroline Dewing
Designed and typeset by Julie Bartram
All images sourced from iStockphoto
Sponsored by Vodafone Group Plc
All rights reserved. Permission should be sought from the copyright
owner before any part of this publication is reproduced, stored in a
retrieval system, or transmitted by any other means. Agreement will
normally be given provided that the source is acknowledged.
The copyright owner does not accept any responsibility whatsoever, in
negligence or otherwise, for any loss or damage arising from the
possession or use of this publication whether in terms of correctness,
completeness or otherwise. The application, therefore, by the user of
the contents of this publication or any part thereof, is solely at the user’s
own risk. The copyright owner furthermore expressly states that any
opinions given in this document are the opinions of the individual
authors which are not necessarily supported by the views of their
employers, the copyright owner or any company forming part of the
Vodafone Group of companies.
A CIP Catalogue record for this books is available from the British Library
ISBN 978-0-9549853-1-8
Printed in the UK
To keep the environmental impact of this document to a minimum, we
have given careful consideration to the production process. The paper
used in the production of this document is 55% recycled from de-inked
post consumer waste. It was manufactured at mills with ISO 14001
accreditation and printed in the UK by a FSC accredited supplier in
accordance with the ISO 14001 environmental management system.
3
Vittorio Colao, CEO Vodafone Group 5
About Future Agenda 7
Authenticity Diane Coyle OBE 8
Choice Professor José Luis Nueno 14
Cities Professor Richard Burdett 20
Connectivity Jan Färjh 26
Currency Dr. Rajiv Kumar 32
Data D J Collins 38
Energy Leo Roodhart 42
Food Jim Kirkwood 48
Health Jack Lord 54
Identity Professor Mike Hardy OBE 60
Migration Professor Richard Black 66
Money Dave Birch 72
Transport Mark Philips 78
Waste Professor Ian Williams 84
Water Professor Stewart Burn 90
Work Chris Meyer 96
Biographies 103
Contents
4
5
The Future Agenda provides a forum for discussion on how to address the challenges we face and gives you the
opportunity to share ideas, visions and solutions and ultimately seed change by contributing to the debate via the
website www.futureagenda.org This booklet is the beginning of that discussion with experts from academia and
industry establishing initial points of view on a range of issues.
The opinions expressed in this document are not ours but those of independent experts whose views we respect
even if we don’t always agree with them. I thank them for their wholehearted support. They have important things
to say that should be of interest to anyone concerned with creating a sustainable future for us all.
Mobile technology can offer many socio-economic benefits but I believe that the most important contribution that
the industry can offer is the power to allow people to communicate. Never has a conversation been more important.
Vittorio Colao, CEO Vodafone Group
We have all heard enough to know we live in a world that is facing some significant, potentially life-threatening
challenges and yet, as a society, we lack clear direction and seem ill-prepared to do anything. What is evident
is that individual, corporate and even national action is not enough. Issues such as climate change, population
increase and the development of socio-economic infrastructures all require a co-coordinated, urgent and
focused approach.
6
7
As the world responds to accelerating challenges, organisations are seeking to gain clearer and more informed
views of the future so that they can place intelligent bets in terms of business strategy and innovation focus. In
order to understand emerging opportunities, we believe organisations should look, beyond their traditional
horizons, and use new combinations of insight and foresight methodologies.
The Future Agenda programme has already gained the support of a range of corporate, government and third
sector organisations keen to share perspectives, challenge each others views and identify ways forward across
the topics being addressed. As all participants are free to use the material as a source for ongoing research and
innovation, we invite you to add your views into the mix to build and share a unique view of the future we need
to collectively address.
Supported by Vodafone Group, the Future Agenda is a unique cross-discipline programme which aims to
bring together thoughtful people from around the world to address the greatest challenges of the next
decade. In doing so, it is mapping out the major issues, identifying and debating potential solutions and
suggesting possible ways forward. We hope, as a consequence, that it will provide a platform for collective
innovation at a higher level than has been previously been achieved.
About Future Agenda
Future of Authenticity
Diane Coyle OBEFounder, Enlightenment Economics and Member, BBC Trust
8
It is now so easy to make imitations that the value of
the authentic has been enhanced. This phenomenon
was pointed out by the critic Walter Benjamin long ago
(in The Work of Art in the Age of Mechanical
Reproduction). Furthermore, given the historically
unprecedented declines in the cost of computing and
communication in the past 20-30 years, copying and
sharing information has become easier and cheaper
than anybody of an earlier generation could have
imagined - especially when so many goods and services
are digitally delivered. Managing this explosion in
imitation is one of the real challenges of the digital age.
Authenticity has great salience in our times because new information and communication technologies have
greatly expanded the scale and scope of the inauthentic. For example, they have made identity fraud possible
and also playful; many of us now have multiple personalities online. When it is easy to choose an identity, what
does that imply for the underlying reality? How do I know who I am, and how do you know who I am, and how
does my bank know who I am?
The Global Challenge
The technologieswhich seem toprotect the badguys - the identitythieves orspammers -also seem able tolead repressiveauthorities toclamp down onthe good guys.This is a genuinelydifficult dilemma.
9Future of Authenticity
Things can be authentic or not.
Fakes are proliferating in the online world. Fake
drugs are sold over the internet, to the great harm of
the customers. ‘Fake’ music, films, software are
sold too, to the benefit of customers but not of
copyright owners. Piracy in this metaphorical sense
is absolutely rampant.
What’s more, the majority of reasonable people don’t
seem to believe there’s much wrong with intangible piracy
- it’s a different matter in the tangible world of medicines
or aircraft parts. What is the authentic reality that the full
force of the law and the state should be protecting? After
all, an online copy of a song is no different from the original.
People can be authentic or not.
Online identities can reflect the multiple ways we think about ourselves: A work and a home email; Several
different sign-ups for accounts; a Twitter account; perhaps Facebook profiles, or a character in World of
Warcraft. These are the benign possibilities. There are malign ones too. Thieves will seek our log-ins and
passwords to bank accounts. Malicious spirits will hide behind fake identities to spread rumours, attack other
people, incite violence even.
What are we to think about the cloak of anonymity online? It seems to encourage intemperate comments,
rudeness and viciousness in online forums. On the other hand, it is essential to protect whistleblowers, or
those who post information in a country affected by violence or a repressive regime. The technologies which
seem to protect the bad guys - the identity thieves or spammers - also seem able to lead repressive authorities
to clamp down on the good guys. This is a genuinely difficult dilemma.
Options and Possibilities
A number of steps will have to taken so that we can establish some form of order in the digital world. These are
1) The establishment of credible, digital identities. This is essential for trust - and hence any economic and
commercial activity - online. But conversely it is equally important to protect privacy - and anonymity too where
it’s needed.
2) The protection of intellectual property in the online world while continuing to protect civic space, an
intellectual commons - what James Boyle has entitled The Public Domain in his recent book of this title.
3) The continued provision of widespread access to communications and information. This brings enormous
benefits especially to people largely excluded from the privileged information access of the past (libraries, print
media). At the same time we must build in verification mechanisms, ensuring the reliability of widely-accessed
online information.
The Way Forward
Information can be authentic or not.
This has always been a fundamental issue in how we
navigate the world but is overwhelmingly important now
that so many people have access to so much
information. The internet, modern communications,
amplify the questions of veracity and reliability which
have always affected the mass media. Urban myths
move with the speed of light down fibre optic cables.
Rumours and incitements to violence are spread, as
always, person to person - but each person can now
reach many others, very quickly. A flash mob can be
assembled either to dance in the streets of London or
beat up and stab neighbours in Kenya.
The skill of verification has become fundamental. Can
you identify spam email? Can you recognise bias in
your source of news? Is Wikipedia a good source
for homework?
Finally, experience can be authentic or not.
Authenticity has an existential value. In rich countries,
where most people have lots of stuff, experience is
more valuable. Activities that take time - ballooning,
cooking lessons, a holiday, book club meetings - are
considered good presents, treats. Representations of
experience have value too. Street style sells - as does
home made jam or hand-made crafts. But of course
being packaged and sold makes the authentic instantly
inauthentic.
These reflections contain an enormous range of
challenges and trade-offs.
The internetand modern
communications,amplify the
questions ofveracity and
reliability whichhave alwaysaffected themass media.Urban mythsmove with thespeed of light
down fibreoptic cables.
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
10 Future of Authenticity
The most effectiveway to counteractfalsehoods infuture willprobably comefrom the poolingof manymessages andreports so thepeople can seewhere there is aconsistent story.
11Future of Authenticity
The issues raised in all these different contexts are
varied, and difficult. For some of them, it is quite likely
that there will be many technology-based solutions
forthcoming in the near future.
There are key areas where technology is already playing
a major role in authenticity: Digital Right Management
(DRM) uses technology to limit access to certain content
- technology having created the potential for access in
the first place. Equally biometric identity uses technology
to limit the potential to form multiple identities. If my
avatar can always be traced back to the me of my DNA,
is there any point in having it?
I predict technological ‘solutions’ will be commonplace
in the next few years. Sellers of content, government
agencies, airlines, and others will put up hurdles
designed to identify individuals. The world of ‘Minority
Report’ will lurch closer. But taken too far, this is a
dystopia. The technologies ought to open up the world of
information and creativity. If the full potential of the
information and communication technologies for the
majority of people is to be recognized, technology can
not be used to build mechanisms which protect existing
interests or structures and prevent change. ICTs are
disruptive technologies. Printing was ultimately absolutely
revolutionary - it’s why we all (in the rich west and many
other countries too) have an education and the vote. The
internet is revolutionary too. This is uncomfortable for
those who were previously comfortable.
So although technology can certainly in the short or
medium term clamp down on its own effects, it is at the
expense of restricting some of the positive potential.
In the longer term we need to look for better solutions.
The most promising will depend on greater
transparency of information and reputation. Here are
some examples.
Misinformation is dangerous in any context, including
misinformation spread via conventional media. It’s all
the more so when it can be spread rapidly via the
internet, email and mobile and potentially change
people’s behaviour. While SMS messages have been
used to positive effect to spread correct information and
encourage positive action - as in elections from the
Phillipines to Zimbabwe - there were concerns that
messages containing misinformation and lies were
being used to encourage and incite the violence after
Kenya’s December 2008 election. The most effective
way to counteract falsehoods in future will probably
come from the pooling of many messages and reports
so the people can see where there is a consistent story.
The aggregation of different sources - which can be
done using new social media applications such as
Ushahidi - could be a powerful tool for verification.
For reasons of food safety as well as personal
preferences - for organic food, or fair trade food perhaps
- traceability has become an important issue. The
prototype Fair Tracing Project uses online maps to follow
products on their journeys from farmers to consumers.
Tracing will involve ‘tagging‘ individual products with
information readily accessible by both producer and
consumer. The information that may be attached to
tagged products is virtually limitless, beginning with
details of the product’s date and cost of creation, as well
as its individual creator and his/her working environment
and pay, through the various steps of its transport
to the eventual point-of-sale to the consumer.”
(http://web4.cs.ucl.ac.uk/students/v.shah/fairTracing/)
Another example is Sourcemap, a new tool which
permits the researching and optimization of supply
chains, using transparency to deliver sustainability.
(http://ow.ly/rgRs)
Finally, online security and encryption are ways of
protecting personal information and safeguarding
personal identity. That identity is created offline. The
likely next step in establishing identity is likely to be
biometric technology which will link the physical person
The fact isthatvirtual identity and"physical" identityare not the samething, and they
differ in ways thatwe are only
beginning to takeon board
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
12 Future of Authenticity
to the digital environment - a thumbprint pad on the
computer screen, perhaps. But a person’s online,
connected identity could potentially be impossible to
copy when it consists, as it eventually may, of all the
accumulated patterns of their digital activities. Each
individual’s activities and conversations and searches is
as unique as a fingerprint. Dave Birch, who runs the
Digital Identity Forum, says in a recent blog post: “the
"common sense" notion of identity, rooted in our pre-
industrial social structures and pre-human cortex, is not
only not very good at dealing with the properties and
implications of identity in an online world, but positively
misleading when applied to system and service design.
The fact is that virtual identity and "physical" identity
are not the same thing, and they differ in ways that
we are only beginning to take on board.”
(http://digitaldebateblogs.typepad.com/digital_identity
/2009/09/what-identity-is-important.html)
Technological solutions are likely to need changes to
social and legal institutions as well. Thus it is feasible to
imagine identifying a person through the pattern of their
communications and online activities, but this ability will
be irrelevant unless government authorities in particular
will accept alternatives to the present paper-based
proof of legal identity.
Reputation is fragile - taking time to build but able
to vanish overnight - it and will be more robust the
more it is the product of personal experience and
recommendations. Personalization will, paradoxically,
become increasingly important even as new
technologies stretch the range and geographical spread
of connections between people.
However, there will be an ‘arms race’ between efforts
to market products or create or shape a reputation and
resistance to any message which is not wholly
authentic. This is a pattern familiar from the world of
fashion: the cool people move on from a certain style as
soon as many others take it up because it’s cool. We
can already see this expansion of the dynamics of
fashion in the evolution of social networks as means of
word-of-mouth recommendation. Trends such as
Facebook or Twitter are subsequently taken up by
companies and other organizations as a means of
conveying messages, but this ‘official’ and inauthentic
use of a social medium in turn leads to resistance
amongst users of networks who move on to another
online location.
The triangulation of information from different sources
will become an essential skill, an aspect of ‘media
literacy’ without which consumers and citizens will be
unable to navigate daily life.
Trusted guides will come to play an increasingly
important role. These could be social networks, media
organizations, certain connected and well-informed
individuals, or companies or other organizations. For
these guides, too, reputation will be all-important and
will require constant vigilance.
A long, collective conversation about authenticity, in at
least some of its aspects, is needed. Personal identity,
verification of information, piracy - there are huge
challenges in this list. They will be best addressed by
creative thought about the potential of the technologies
which are amplifying the challenges of authenticity to
provide solutions too.
The journey is unlikely to be easy. A comparison between the valuation of any company and its physical assets
shows that the vast majority of value in the economy is intangible and based on an understanding of what it
is - whether or not it is authentic. Intangible value can evaporate overnight - and we’ve seen many examples
of that, for instance in banking recently, in the case of Enron before that. This makes reputation everything,
and the only way to sustain a reputation is to live it constantly.
Impact and Implications
There will bean ‘arms race’between effortsto marketproducts orcreate or shapea reputation andresistance toany messagewhich is notwholly authentic.
13Future of Authenticity
Future of Choice
Professor José Luis NuenoIESE, Barcelona
14
In addition, choice is being threatened from the
expropriation of freedom of choice launched from
regulators, media, and the general public. Tobacco,
candy, alcoholic beverages, speed, late hours,
advertising, food… all are being subject to regulation
that limits choice and how we get to know about it.
The way forward is for all to get used to the new world
and operate by the new rules. While a few of the usual
suspects may put up national or regional protectionist
barriers, the realities of global trade are all too clear and
we can see the end of variety. In fact we can see a
changing balance between variety and cost.
Consumers are making a trade-off in a smart way and
cost is winning. We therefore face the challenge of how
to deal with a reduction in the number of options in the
categories of consumption but an expansion in the
number of categories.
Hypermarkets and department stores will all struggle in
the next decade: They may reduce their product mix
down from 26000 SKUs (stock keeping units) to 16000,
but continuing to provide consumers with such choice is
unsustainable when discount stores only have to provide
1000 SKUs - an increase in the assortment from the 800
they offer today. Commoditization is the way forward for
the mainstream majority and in many sectors this will
mean a race to the bottom in terms of margins.
Department stores need a continuous stream of new
ideas and innovation to keep their mix fresh and so attract
high-end consumers, but in a world of less variety where
high quality, low cost Asian products dominate, why will
the majority seek out the niche brands?
Why should we continue to build brands when China
and India can buy them ready-made off the shelf? Just
as Lenovo bought IBM and Tata bought Jaguar Land
Rover, with the financial reserves now available, why
should any established brand not be for sale? The
Chinese production model is all about the right products
- good quality at a low price and the brand is a
secondary issue. Yes, there is the luxury sector - the
Gucci, Prada, Louis Vuitton segment of the fashion
industry and its like in electronics and automobiles, but
that is, by its very nature, niche - and increasingly Asian
in production. Moreover, culturally intensive products, a
traditional refuge of variety, are under threat by
consumer unwillingness to pay.
In the next ten years I see the rise of Asian retailing
driven initially by the sheer size of the associated
domestic markets and then a move into the
international arena. The Aldi model will win over the
Wal-Mart one, but what about a Chinese Aldi selling
products made by a Chinese P&G? Who could
compete against that combination? I believe that this
will occur without any significant backlash. Consumers
will follow the mainstream and quickly get used to less
choice given the benefit of lower cost. This will apply
across the board.
The only categories where I see an alternative future
are those that are affected by time; perishable products
(food), live content (broadcast) and extreme time to
market goods (those that respond to latent consumer
needs) will be relatively immune. Indeed, if the quality
of the staple products is to improve and local production
The world has changed: Product supply and demand is globalized and there is no putting the genie back in
the bottle. The flow of goods from Asia to the west has created an economic dependency over the past ten
years that will be exploited over the next ten. As China and India and other fast-developing economies become
the primary global marketplaces, the needs and wishes of the 4bn new consumers will dominate those of the
800m old ones in the US and Europe. The days where the US set the pace in the consumer mindset are over
and this is not going to change.
The Global Challenge
Consumers aremaking a trade-offin a smartway and costis winning.
15Future of Choice
increases to ensure security of supply, we can see
rising costs on the horizon - but still with less variety of
choice. In 2020 how many of us in Europe will eat
strawberries in December?
Choice will also be limited by our ability to process
information. Ten years ago we did not have MP3s,
PVRs, thousands of interesting websites, travel
destinations, or hundreds of lifestyle drugs. We will see
more of these and, in addition, many disruptive and
complex new products, services or solutions will grab
the attention of an already over-solicited and less
affluent consumer. As the number of categories
expands, choice will have to be shared among, rather
than within, categories of consumption.
We can foreseea world in whichZara and H&M
are moresuccessful than
Gap and NeimanMarcus and
the Aldi modelwins over theWal-Mart one.
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
16 Future of Choice
One likely development is in the food sector which is
fast-becoming the tobacco of the 21st Century. We are
progressing towards a model where no single
organization can have as much influence as they have
had in the past and we will become accustomed to a
restriction in our freedom of choice. As suggested
previously, the obesity epidemic has not been
adequately moderated by the food industry and so
governments will increasingly intervene to limit choice.
Healthier foods will cease to be an option but instead
will become the norm. Portion size will be reduced and
low fat and low salt will be the new default standards.
Although some companies, such as Mars and Coca-
Cola, have been proactive in cutting back on advertising
and taking away vending machines from within schools,
and PepsiCo especially has shifted towards lower fat
products, the majority of the food sector has not made
a sufficient move over the past decade. So, faced with
increasing health costs and long-term disease risks, I
see that regulators will act. The industry will have to sort
itself out and we will see more transparency on
ingredients. More variety in food is nonsense. We will
see a shift to less. Less choice maybe better and
hence, by 2020, again I see less choice within
categories but more choice between categories. This
will benefit the leading companies (a winner takes all
proposition) as well as the most flexible, pragmatic, and
adaptive followers.
The other certainty I see is a reduction in the number of
players within each category. The top mega-brands will
survive as will some of the most efficient non-brands.
But there will be a clear out of the middle market - the
me-too brands will become ex-brands and will disappear.
Some may see that there is uncertainty in how
consumers will react to less variety. I see that, if they
With the certainty that variety will lose out to speed and cost, we can foresee a world in which Zara and H&M
are more successful than Gap and Neiman Marcus and, as mentioned earlier, the Aldi model wins over Wal-
Mart one. Hypermarkets and department stores will lose out to discount stores and the speed merchants. This
is clear. The shape of retailing has changed and the consequences over the next decade will be driven by a
clear-out of the also-rans.
Options and Possibilities
are not given so much choice, the mainstream majority
will follow where they are led. Take, for example, what
will happen when the first Renault, Citroen and VW
electric cars are launched into the European market in
2012. When consumers are given an option to buy one
of, say ten efficient, zero emission, zero-tax vehicles,
who will be interested in the hundreds of non-electric
alternatives? Regulation, public opinion and financial
incentives will all accelerate the migration of the
consumer vehicle fleet to electric and we will not care
about the reduction in choice.
Europe witharound 200mactive consumerswill become asecondaryinfluence toAsia with 4bn.
17Future of Choice
Over the next ten years we will see a reduction in the
number of players per category. As variety is reduced
and commoditization increases, only the #1 and #2
brands will survive. So what about #3, #4 and #5? The
playing field for the future will be increasingly
determined by whoever sets the standards. And the
standards will be set by the category leaders and the
biggest marketplaces - the US, China and India - it is
a numbers game. Europe with around 200m active
consumers will become a secondary influence to Asia
with 4bn. Therefore, as products and services are
configured to meet the global consumer, who will be
increasingly Asian, the variety of choice will become
less influential than scale and speed of delivery.
Back in the 1950s William Starbuck developed one of
the few ideas in retailing to have lasted: Every retail
model is substituted by a more efficient one. This has
been the case for the last 50 years and I see no reason
for change in the future. As the success of discount
supermarkets like Aldi demonstrates, variety will be
substituted by budget. I see that, in the forthcoming
decade, many retailers will struggle to compete and fall
down in between the leaders in providing low cost
commodites and trend setting. As the continued growth
of fast-fashion chains such as Zara and H&M reveals,
providing a limited but fast-changing product range is
more profitable that holding a broad portfolio to cover
the full range of potential consumer choice. We have
now entered a world in which the distinction between
prediction and following of trends has become blurred.
Given the speed with which Zara changes its product
mix, we are no longer certain whether media leads
fashion or vice-versa. But who leads who is irrelevant
when we, as consumers, don’t have to choose. The
decisions about what we can buy are made for us and
so variety again reduces. The most important capability
for any manufacturer seeking a decent margin will be
the ability to produce faster than the diffusion of a
trend. Scale will dominate over choice.
Given the impact of the global downturn, in the retail arena I don’t think that we will be returning to a business
as usual world. Consumer attitudes have changed to shift many of us away from wanting increased variety.
In addition, the framework within which we consume has changed: Governments, the big brands, the
acceleration of China and retail efficiency are all creating a new landscape within which our choice will become
more limited: Less will be less not more. Variety is increasing across categories not within them.
The Way Forward
In addition, we are facing greater intervention of an
increasing number of influential bodies and groups
into the world of retailing which will all align to reduce
our freedom of choice. The media, public opinion and
government regulation are moving us towards a
reduction in variety in the consumption of products
and services. As they have in the past impacted
alcohol and tobacco, so in the next decade they will
impact other areas of consumption from food and
fashion to transport.
It may seemcounterintuitive
but fewerchoices provide
higher levelsof satisfaction
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
18 Future of Choice
Moving to the wider impacts of how I see the future of
choice, it is clear that, although some may see my view
as being a little negative from a Western perspective, it
does highlight the dynamics at play across the retail
environment of the next ten years. As we are cognizant
of a world in which less variety is the predominant shift
for most, if not all, categories, then, as manufacturers
and retailers, we can prepare ourselves for a new
paradigm. With good quality, low-cost, mass
commoditization the norm for the mainstream, we either
need to compete on these terms or else migrate to the
margins. I have highlighted the successful approaches
taken by Spanish Zara and Swedish H&M in the fashion
industry where they have both developed fast-fashion
as a core capability. There is nothing to stop other
companies in other categories from following the same
path or finding their own way forward which creates and
sustains a unique position in the marketplace. Yes, my
views on choice and the mainstream may sound alarm
bells for many in the middle market today, but they
should also provide a stimulus for others to think
differently about the new competitive landscape.
The future of choice is about less variety, but this does
not mean less interest. The products that will succeed
in the future will be the ones that offer global customers
what they want, even if it is before they have recognized
what that is. The successful retailers of the future will
provide consumers with a smaller portfolio of products
than their predecessors did in the past, but the portfolio
will be higher selling products. Less variety means fewer
SKUs but fewer SKUs mean more efficient retailing.
As variety reduces some may question whether consumers will miss the old days. I don’t believe so. Some
of our recent research at IESE has explored choice from a number of dimensions. It may seem counter-
intuitive but fewer choices provide higher levels of satisfaction: People like to have lots of variety, but when
faced with too many choices, we tend to vacillate and delay decisions. We may want 31 options instead of
six, but we find it easier to choose one of six than one of 31. In a series of experiments with men and women
from a range of different cultures we found that the greatest level of satisfaction, both with the final choice
and the decision-making process, was reached when people chose from an intermediate number of
alternatives as opposed to large or small choice sets. These findings have practical implications for people
offering many choices to customers, consumer and employees today. Going forward, I see that this supports
my notion that we will see little consumer backlash against a reduction of variety.
Impacts and Implications
The future ofchoice is aboutless variety,but this doesnot mean lessinterest.
19
Future of Cities
Professor Richard BurdettCentennial Professor in Architecture and Urbanism, London School of Economics
20
Urban growth is being fuelled by new levels of mobility
and migration of diverse populations within and across
nations especially in China, Brazil and India. These
rural-to-urban migrants are pulled by the tantalizing
prospects of jobs and opportunity, driven by the harsh
realities of rural life. Cities like Mumbai experience 42
people moving into the city per hour. Where do you
house them and what infrastructure do you provide for
them? Transport, electricity, sewers and water systems
- these are technical issues that need to be addressed
in a way that is environmentally smart.
Migration and in-migration has also created an urban
underclass which is often allocated to specific areas of
the city. Paris is a perfect example. The physical
infrastructure, with the beauty and qualities that we all
admire, has frozen. This means that all its growth (with
increasing immigration from 1945 and onward) has
created ghettoization. This kind of imbalance in social
mobility must be addressed.
The changing nature of work will also impact on the
physical form of cities. The global economy was born
out of the power of trans-national corporations and
global communications technologies. How does it affect
the way we live? If we focus on the fact that power
and communications capacities need to be produced,
implemented and managed, it becomes clear that cities
still have an important role to play but their layout and
functionality may be different.
Even the most advanced firms need cleaners, lorry
drivers, and secretaries. How must cities adapt to fit
the needs of all? Also how do we adapt to the possibility
that we are seeing an internationalised labour market
for low wage manual and service workers? How do we
adapt housing design and create neighbourhoods that
will benefit local communities and encourage urban
integration?
Technological innovation has shrunk the world reducing
the cost of transmitting to virtually nothing. Internet
users in developing countries could constitute more
than half the world total within 5 years if trends persist.
The reality of urban connectivity taken to its logical
conclusion will create a network of interlinked cities
connected, and soon to be even more connected, by
modern rails and technology. Consider also the effects
of mobility and transport systems on social cohesion
and economic viability.
Lastly, any future urban model must of course be
sustainable. If we are to make up for past failures,
cities will have to produce more energy than they need,
become net carbon absorbers, collect and process
waste within city limits and collect and clean recycled
water. All this should happen in parallel to the creation
of wealth and the promotion of social wellbeing and
individual health.
The big issues facing cities are clear: Think globalisation, immigration, jobs, social exclusion and sustainability:
Given that global urbanisation is taking place at an unprecedented speed with a scale, diversity, complexity
and level of connectivity that challenges all existing perceptions, questions regarding the size, speed of growth,
shape and land use of cities have become increasingly complex and politicised. Although cities themselves
have a remarkable ability to innovate, there are broad disconnects between urban change and urban policy.
The priority, therefore, must be to identify ways in which policy makers can create a regulatory environment
that provides a framework for sustainable forms of urban development.
The Global Challenge
Although citiesthemselves havea remarkableability to innovate,there are broaddisconnectsbetween urbanchange andurban policy.
21Future of Cities
We should also consider how we manage the dramatic
upturn in immigration and address the fight against
poverty. One billion people live in disease spreading
slums characterized by inadequate housing, unsafe
drinking water and open sewer systems. This makes
the builders of informal housing the largest housing
developers in the world and it is they who are
creating the cities of tomorrow. We can plan for this
“unplanned” inevitability. There are already noticeable
success stories; take for example Ciuadad Neza in
Mexico City where, as hundreds of thousand
immigrants arrive each year, an open-ended and
networked community is succeeding in establishing a
lively economy out of literally nothing. Yet cities offer
the promise of ultimately connecting hundreds of
millions of workers to the expanding job opportunities
offered by the global economy.
Can cities address the environmental crisis of global
warming and climate change? Rapid urbanisation has
no doubt exacerbated environmental pressures but
cities offer the best promise of developing in ways that
are environmentally sound and energy efficient - a pre-
requisite of global prosperity. The need is to develop
carbon reduction policies - such as London’s
congestion charge, for example, at the same time as
improving infrastructure. This is why the planners in
London are focusing on improving the transport
infrastructure and have committed to reduce C02
emissions by 60% by 2050 focussing on existing
housing stock which accounts for nearly 40% of
today’s emissions.
Can planners adapt with sufficient speed to create policies which address the challenges we face? There
seems to be a disconnect between the complexity of challenges of the urban age and our current set of urban
solutions. Planners and urban governance must consider re-evaluating how they address the problems they
face and consider multi-dimensional, integrated interventions rather than specific policies covering specialised
issues (education, health, housing etc). If, for example, housing is going to be a platform for opportunity, then
housing policies must connect with education, transportation and childcare; if transportation is going to
promote mobility and advance sustainability, then transportation policies need to expand choice and embrace
dense, transit rich corridors of mixed residential, retail and employment use. Ultimately, to be successful, we
also need to share innovations across networks of urban researchers, practitioners and policy makers across
the developed and developing world.
Options and Possibilities
Can plannersadapt with
sufficient speedto create policieswhich addressthe challenges
we face?There seems tobe a disconnect
between thecomplexity of
challenges of theurban age andour current setof solutions.
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
22 Future of Cities
New Delhi, for instance, holds 13-14 million people
depending on the time of day. It used to have the
highest pollution rates in the world but then overnight all
the auto-rickshaws and the buses were made to change
from diesel to natural gas. If you can use natural gas in
New Delhi, then why can’t you use it everywhere?
In London we use congestion charge, which is very
effective in re-prioritizing the traffic. There are clear
environmental benefits but a radical social difference is
a 100% increase in bus use by the middle class. If you
get the middle class onto public transport you are
winning, and that’s a great example.
Tokyo is the largest city in the world. Its transport
system, integrated by overhead and underground rail
systems, means that the average commute is around
one hour. Compare that to Los Angeles where the
average commute is about two hours and at least 80%
of the population takes the car to work. In Tokyo, 80%
of the population use public transport. There is little
doubt that, seen through the lens of efficiency, more
densely populated, compact cities such as Hong Kong
and Manhattan are inherently more sustainable places
to live than the likes of Houston and Mexico City.
However, across the scale empowerment becomes
significant; you need to have a system which allows
people on the ground to solve the problems where they
need to be solved. I go through the tiny streets of a
small slum area of the outskirts of Mumbai and I see a
series of young men and women who have worked
together to create a communal bathroom (toilet).
Where people don’t have water and don’t have toilets,
this place is important because it’s where people meet.
They have created a moment of pause in the city. This
is one of many projects that I saw in Mumbai, New
Delhi and elsewhere which are fantastically powerful
and are done by individuals.
Cities are often at the forefront of the delivery of cultural
richness In Mexico city, for example, there is a fantastic
initiative which is called the ‘Fallon’, The Lighthouse,
signifying hope; a stunning project designed by an
architect called Callas. Next to it is an area of
approximately a million people living under the poorest
conditions, a lot of them using the nearby rubbish tip as
a way of living, recycling whatever is there, living at the
bottom. The Lighthouse is a cultural centre where kids
learn how to paint and do art. Mexico City is a city of
enormous violence; people don’t feel safe going out
and whenever there is a crowd of people together the
police try to break it up. So an outdoor music area is a
no-go area. Outside the Lighthouse they have built a
simple amphitheatre out of earth where they hold music
concerts in the summer. This does more to lift the
spirits of the community than any policy I ever saw the
mayor or the politicians do. At the centre of this is the
physical environment. By designing spaces you can
make an enormous change.
You can become very depressed about cities of the future when you look at all the challenges facing us.
But, the more I go and visit cities and through the work we do at The London School of Economics, the more
I think that there are solutions. They depend on people rather than policies - it could be a mayor making a
decision or a community activist.
Proposed Way Forward
There is littledoubt that, seenthrough the lensof efficiency,more denselypopulated,compact citiessuch as HongKong andManhattan areinherently moresustainableplaces to livethan the likes ofHouston andMexico City.
23Future of Cities
Cities of the future have to be organic, flexible and
versatile. As society and aspirations alter over time, the
city has to adapt to change. Utopian cities have never
worked. The people that created Rome, New York and
London certainly didn’t think of them as fixed artifacts
that wouldn’t change over time. We have to be clever
enough as urban designers to design the city like a
metabolism, like a body. When it gets older and weaker,
you do corrective surgery. Cities need to be versatile;
otherwise they fossilize and die. For example, many
cities of the last 50 years have been designed around
the needs of the car. But as oil costs soar and the city
of the future will increasingly need adapt to modes of
transportation that are not petrol-dependent. This will
have a significant impact on the shape of the city.
In order to be versatile and responsive to change the
sustainable city will also have to be compact. A city like
Mexico City, which goes on for 100 kilometers in one
direction and 150 kilometers in another, has hardly any
chance of actually becoming sustainable. On the other
hand a city like New York or Copenhagen and a city like
London which has highs and lows of density, has the
potential to become sustainable within the next 30 years.
Creating more compact urban environments generally
will result in more efficient infrastructures: One direct
consequence of variation in population density is the
associated energy demands: Tighter, more compact
cities have far lower energy use per capita than more
spread out ones: So, as energy costs continue to
escalate and energy security becomes even more of an
issue over the next decade, this inherent design
relationship will come more to the fore.
The quality of a city does not only concern the
environment. We mustn’t forget that cities are about
people coming together. Ultimately a city may be very
efficient in terms of CO2 emission but if the places
where we come together are not beautiful (a word
which is rarely used in this debate) and if the places
don’t have a wonderful relationship to urban nature - a
river, water or views that compensate for this human
closeness, this is not a city that people will want to live
in. The qualities I am looking for in a city that is
sustainable, that embraces the notion of versatility, that
is compact, that offers bounds of beauty in its buildings
and the quality of its open spaces.
Perhaps more than ever before, the shape of cities, how much land they occupy, how much energy they
consume, how their transport infrastructure is organised and where people are housed - in remote segregated
environments behind walls or in integrated neighbourhoods close to jobs, facilities and transport - all affect
the environmental, economic and social sustainability of global society. Cities are not just a concentration of
problems - but they are also places where problems can be solved.
Impacts and Implications
Cities are notjusta concentrationof problems -
but they are alsoplaces whereproblems can
be solved.
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
24 Future of Cities
The qualities Iam looking forin a city that issustainable, thatembraces thenotion ofversatility, thatis compact, thatoffers boundsof beauty in itsbuildings and thequality of itsopen spaces.
25
Future of Connectivity
Jan FärjhVice President and Head of Ericsson Research
26
Technology in itself will not be a restricting factor.
Transport, access, storage, and processing will all thrive
on the continued effects of Moore’s law and
miniaturization will continue where beneficial. High
performing systems are of course an absolute necessity
but the implementation challenge is not straightforward.
We need to consider how to deal with the phenomenal
increase in capacity both in terms of number of devices
to be handled but also in terms of the amount of
information that will be exchanged between these
devices. Power consumption will also still be an issue
because of battery lifetime and sustainability concerns.
So, how can we develop a system that is cost -
effective, adaptable, easily deployed and, most
importantly, simple to use? How can we develop
networks that are self-deployed, self-operated and self-
maintained? These questions cannot be answered by
technology alone; in order to achieve success we need
collaboration between network providers, device
manufacturers and, of course, policy makers both
nationally and internationally.
What will this mean for consumers? Essentially
ubiquitous connectivity will continue to change the basic
structure and conditions of our lives and, although it has
the potential to bring extraordinary benefits, for some it
will be a real challenge to adapt to this. Information on
almost everything is now widely available making
industries and markets much more transparent and
efficient. However, the way consumers share information
and communicate with each other, utilizing a variety of
online social networking tools, IPTV, images and video,
means that how we give and receive information is
becoming increasingly personalised. This, in turn, means
that individuals, more than ever before, have to manage
their own public identity. This indicates that concerns
around cyber crime and data protection will continue to
rise. As a result, security and consumer protection
related issues will become increasingly important.
Business will also have to adapt to a changing
environment as their services are increasingly delivered
online. In a world of endless choice and seemingly
complete transparency some will be hard put to
differentiate themselves. Of course, communications
technology is not in itself a limiting factor for the
diffusion of new products and services - in fact
evidence suggests quite the opposite - those who are
successful will have made the most of the opportunity.
This is why brand identity will continue to dominate.
The internet has finally gone mobile. Today over 300m of us access the web using mobile technology. In 2010
the number of subscribers reaches 1bn, surpassing the number of fixed internet users. In a couple of years
the number of mobile broadband connections will be in the order of 4 to 5bn - with the majority of new
consumers coming from China and India. By 2020 there may well be as many as 50bn devices connected
to each other. These devices will work across different networks which, in turn, will be connected to each
other. This global, pervasive connectivity will facilitate new types of services and opportunities for people,
industry, and society but it won’t be an easy journey. Delivering this vision is a major commercial and technical
challenge for the ICT sector, but on the other hand very exciting.
The Global Challenge
In a couple ofyears the numberof mobilebroadbandconnections willbe in the orderof 4 to 5bn - withthe majority ofnew consumerscoming fromChina and India.
27Future of Connectivity
We face rising populations and increased dependency
ratios which will be exacerbated by scarcities of
resources and environmental requirements. In order to
maintain standards of living with substantial and
continued global productivity improvements will
be needed. This will partly be enabled by the
communication industry and, particularly when
combined with other vital industries such as
transportation and healthcare, will play an important role
in addressing this need. For example, scarcity of labour
can, to an extent, be mitigated if machine to machine
(M2M) communication is used to address labour
intensive tasks; automation is specific vertical industries
can be enabled by connected sensor networks. In
addition, self-service solutions will also continue to grow
far beyond today’s e-bank and e-retailer services
applications into areas such as government and
healthcare; and, the increased global use of mobile,
video and internet will mean that people can benefit
from the services they need more quickly at less cost.
Sustainability is certainly high on the agenda for the
next decade and here ICT can make a large
contribution. As the world measures more or less
everything by new sustainability standards, whether
quality of life, business success or government actions,
there is potential for connectivity to play a significant
role in areas such as carbon mitigation. A recent report
(SMART 2020) concluded that, although ICT merely
represents 2 percent of global CO2 emissions, it has a
clear role to play in reducing the remaining 98 percent
from other sources. Therefore expect a boom in
innovation of services to meet this emerging
demand; e-government, e-health, e-education, e-work,
telepresence, logistics and energy management
services will all increase. Machine-to-machine and
process-to-process communications as well as tools
leveraging data mining will all flourish as sustainability
efficiency measures will be taken across the board and
in all enterprises.
In the corporate world, there will be a blurring of borders
between large and small enterprises with large scale
companies deploying true global operating models,
increased inter-company collaboration and workers
increasingly tele-working and being loosely connected
to organizations. As creative knowledge workers
become strategic assets for companies, IT budgets will
increasingly be geared at making them effective.
Increased connectivity will enable competitive
advantages and new business models to be sought
from mining massive amounts of data. For instance
real-time business intelligence and statistical
experimentation, real-time management of goods in
world-wide distribution and logistics chains and targeted
advertising solutions will all require data systems that
will be enabled by falling prices on data storage,
communications and processing.
By 2020 the majority of the world’s population will have access to basic telecommunications services.
However, even though the current development pace is high, with more connected devices and availability of
internet access “everywhere”, it is still uncertain how fast this will really impact and change conditions for other
value chains, industries and daily lives. This depends on many factors including the rate at which networks
can be rolled out and the connection speeds that will be possible. Where there is connectivity, smart phones
and devices will enable people to leapfrog a generation of technology, especially for those who never had a
land line phone. Mobile voice increase in developing economies may slow down but these markets will add
local innovation and stay in the forefront with overall growth consistently higher than in mature markets. It is
also likely that Broadband access penetration will increase primarily by means of radio solutions in developing
markets outside areas where fixed broadband is economically feasible.
Options and Possibilities
Machine tomachine andprocess toprocess
communicationsas well as
tools leveragingdata mining willall flourish assustainability
efficiencymeasures will
be takenacross the board
and in allenterprises.
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
28 Future of Connectivity
Technology initself will notbe a limiting factorand there will bethe introductionof many morenew productsand services.
29Future of Connectivity
User generated content will also probably continue to
grow strongly, increasing traffic and the abundance of
available information, However, the impact on media
value chains and the commercial value of that content
is unclear. The online advertising market will grow, but
will not be of a magnitude sufficient to substitute
telecom services revenue streams at the current price
levels. That said, as media consumption continues to
become more fragmented an interactive, the gap
between the rapidly growing online share of media time,
and the online share of the global advertising budget,
will close.
We see an increased separation between the content
and services that people use and the means by which
it will be delivered. Companies with strong brands will
shape the communications industry and their services
could be delivered over the top of independent network
providers and will be tightly integrated with devices.
Simplicity and convenience is the driving force and
brand loyalty will win over variety.
The sustainability agenda comes to the fore and
changes the conditions for societies, companies and
individuals worldwide. In order to reduce travel and
energy consumption there will be an acceleration of
new mobile internet services for health, government,
work and machine-to-machine (M2M) operations.
Increased regulation will come into place to secure
affordable services and drive industry players to pool
their resources to ensure that networks are capable,
reliable and robust.
As with many scenarios, we see that the way forward
will probably be a hybrid of these. An open application
environment will enable new services and applications
to combine adjacent scientific fields such as energy,
food, water, transport, health and ICT - globally and
locally. Everything that could benefit from a wireless
network will have one. Industries will become
increasingly mobilized and there will be an increasing
share of services delivered online. Technology in itself
will not be a limiting factor and there will be the
introduction of many more new products and services.
Usability and simplicity will be in high demand, fixed and
mobile broadband will converge and 50 billion devices
will be connected globally.
Looking to 2020, we see that, while the technology platforms that will enable global ubiquitous connectivity
are clear, the way in which businesses, society and individuals use these could vary significantly. Some
examples of scenarios that might occur can be described as follows:
Proposed Way Forward
In the next decade, addressing the major global
challenges and a continued shift to wireless and online
services will bring forward new societal vulnerabilities.
‘Cyber crime’ and malware may be increasingly
common, and dependencies on the availability of
information and communication systems will increase.
Restricted online anonymity and privacy will also raise
integrity concerns. As a result, security and consumer
protection related regulation will increase and industries
will move to capture these new opportunities.
IP will be the prevailing delivery vehicle for much of our
connectivity, and the vertical dependence between
services and infrastructures may gradually disappear.
Users will access services and content independently of
the network provider to a larger extent. Business
models will vary, but lower entry barriers and innovation
globally will also increase the number of providers
offering the same service - but at a reduced cost to
consumers of financed by alternative business models,
such as increasing advertising revenues.
Most other areas will to some extent be affected by
global connectivity: Money, authenticity, transport, travel,
mHealth, privacy, identity, energy, cities, migration, food,
water, waste. For all these areas you can find a use for
connectivity. Global connectivity can change, improve
and be used to catalyze innovation in everything.
Real change, however, can only be made when
communication technology is properly integrated into
adjacent scientific fields. This will open up new services
in a wide range of complementary industries such as
healthcare, automation, positioning and information
management. It is clear that everything that can benefit
from a network connection will have one. Not only will
more people be connected, but devices for various
types of automated services and functions (e.g. energy
meters, surveillance, climate sensors, e-health sensors,
and industry process automation) will exchange data
and change lives.
Full global connectivity is already well underway. It has already changed the way we communicate with other
people and groups. The amount of information we can share and the speed with which we can share it is
increasing rapidly. Indeed, it is possible to suggest that access to advanced communications will be come
a “universal right” and that a wide and deep penetration of networks and services is a prerequisite for the
continued struggle against climate change and poverty. This suggests that universal services requirements
will drive new investments in the industry, while measures to keep services affordable (e.g. price regulation)
may reduce revenues and profits leading to increased pressure for lower cost and higher efficiency.
Impacts and Implications
It is possibleto suggest
that access toadvanced
communicationswill be come a“universal right”
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
30 Future of Connectivity
It is clear thateverything thatcan benefitfrom a networkconnection willhave one.
31
Future of Currency
Dr. Rajiv KumarChief Executive, ICRIER
32
By 2020, will we, for instance, therefore see the ACU
(Asian Currency Unit) develop from an Asian Monetary
Union to become the third global currency alongside
the Euro and the dollar? While Asia may not be ready
for a common currency, the time is right to work
towards a parallel currency. Furthermore, within this
context, would the ACU be pegged to the Yuan or the
Yen? And will the Rupee be part of the basket that
determines the value of the ACU? These global
currency reserve questions are a primary challenge for
the world’s economies for the next ten years.
While I see that this is the main issue, I believe that
during the next decade we will also have to address two
other significant issues along the way:
One of the most important of these is the continuation
of money laundering that will increasingly impact the
smaller economies as the larger ones take steps to
minimize the impact on their own systems. Will such
countries as Switzerland and The Bahamas, as well as
other financial havens, finally be brought into the
financial mainstream and stop affording haven status
to residents of other countries? Will the advanced
economies come together and force the emerging
economies to join in the move against laundered and ill
gotten wealth?
We also have the impact of replacing printed and
minted money with electronic equivalents: The move to
digital money will certainly raise a number of major
issues. Especially as the banking and mobile
telecommunications sectors see their interests
converge in developing more widespread electronic
transactions which will minimise the use of cash, or
even traditional credit as we know it, digital money will
have increasing applicability. As banks adopt new
software and the Bank for International Settlements
develops guidelines for electronic money, its movement
across national borders will become practical. However,
what is the real pace of the related technologies and
who either individually or collectively will emerge as the
real driver for this convergence? Given the access gap
that still exists for significant proportions of the
population in many developing nations, will we need to
wait for true, near ubiquitous mobile connectivity and
24/7 energy supply before digital money can really
have global impact?
Both of these issues will have impact upon international
remittances, inter-bank transfers and the many
associated financial vehicles that are presently in place.
I see that greatest challenge for the next decade to be a fundamental one - what should the world’s currencies
be? Over the last century we have seen the rise of the US dollar as the primary unit of global currency which
we use to measure and value much of our relative individual, organisational and national wealth and
investments, and through which we exchange, trade and price commodities, businesses, goods and services.
The status of the US dollar as the global reserve currency is however under enormous pressure and, with the
rise of new currency blocs in the world, many have been asking whether the Euro will emerge as an alternative
reserve currency. The 2008-9 financial crisis put enough pressure on the US currency to such an extent that
many now see that we need an alternative, but the question is what? Will the US remain as the pre-eminent
financial power or will its influence secularly decline stimulated by the recent crisis and its inability to achieve
a major technological breakthrough or exercise the necessary conditions for it to remain a reserve currency?
And, if we go for an alternative, why would this be the Euro?
The Global Challenge
The status of theUS dollar asthe global reservecurrency ishowever underenormouspressure
33Future of Currency
Over the same period, it is possible, but not highly
probable, that the Euro will become a major reserve
currency. Although the European Monetary Union led to
the public introduction of the Euro in 2002, this was
twenty years after the first creation of the ECU as an
artificial basket currency used by participating countries
as their internal accounting unit. It is unlikely that,
another two decades later, the Euro will have become
quite as significant a currency as the dollar, but it may
not be far off. A world where the Euro has equal status
to the dollar as a reserve currency is increasingly
credible.
However, at the same time, it is certain that the Yuan
is emerging as the central focus for economic and
financial activity in Asia with increasing number of
transactions occurring in that currency, though with
limited convertibility. We have seen the rise of China to
become the world’s primary economic power. This is
accompanied by a similar rise of India and the
associated rebalancing of wealth between the West
and the East. Although the recent economic model has
largely been one where Asians produce goods that are
bought by Americans using money that is lent back to
them by the Asians, this may not last much longer: As
a number of commentators, including historian Niall
Ferguson, have argued this ‘Chimerica’ balance is not
sustainable in the long term and, as such, a leverage
based model cannot continue. The 2008 shock to the
global financial system could have significant influence:
De-leveraging is already happening as individuals and
governments across Asia decrease their investments in
the US dollar.
That said, over the next decade, it is unlikely that we will
really see the emergence of the ACU as the third
currency block. This is because Asians cannot decide
on either a viable collation or leadership by one of the
countries. As experts, including Jin-Chuan Duan at the
National University of Singapore, have highlighted:
although much debated, Asian Monetary Union looks
unlikely in the short term. Just as with the formation of
the ERM and the Euro, the realisation of the ACU as a
single regional currency would demand cross subsidy
via taxation between countries, the loss of autonomy in
the conduct of monetary policy and the partial surrender
of some national sovereignty: Right now the Asian
version of the Euro is theoretically possible but
practically far from certain. However, dual currency
systems are common and I believe that, although Asian
Monetary Union is improbable by 2020, a parallel
currency ACU that allows for exchange rate
adjustments is practical. But the ACU must be based
on a wider basket than just the ASEAN countries.
It is certain that for the next decade the US dollar will remain as one of the reserve currencies. As such it will
still be a key currency for foreign exchange and a transaction currency for international trade and investments
in 2020. The US dollar will continue to be integrated into, and influential upon, the world economy.
Options and Possibilities
De-leveraging isalready happening
as individualsand governments
across Asiadecrease theirinvestments inthe US dollar.
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
34 Future of Currency
In a similar manner to how Shell’s current global scenarios
outline the future for the energy sector, I see that the
challenge in the financial world is to also ensure that we
try our best to follow the ‘blueprint’ and not the
‘scramble’ approach: I suggest that we need to
strengthen the global coordination mechanisms to
facilitate the monitoring of global financial flows and
enable the emergence of new technologies to help
balance the system. The major economies represented
in the G20 need to agree to have some arrangement for
a universally acceptable reserve currency, starting as a
unit of account and then also phasing it in as a currency
of exchange. I believe that we should adopt such a
universally acceptable currency that does not face the
risk of being debased as a result of the fiscal and
financial indiscipline on the part of any one country. The
ACU has the potential to be that currency. But to function
as such it must include the Rupee: India is currently the
largest economy of South Asia and plays a far more
influential role across Asia as a whole than many of the
ASEAN countries. The ACU has been seen as a
precursor to a common future currency, just as the ECU
was for the Euro. Therefore, it is important to focus on
how the world will therefore look when this occurs - India
is currently poised to be the third largest economy in the
world over the next 30 years. Hence the inclusion of
India in Asian economic monetary integration is prudent.
Many would correctly suggest that a true single world
currency is not practical: Differential interest rates and
selective monetary policies make it impossible and
currency harmonization cannot readily be implemented
while different countries are in different stages of
economic development. The IMF is not a super central
bank and turning Special Drawing Rights into a world
currency is neither possible nor practical. However, the
introduction of a broad basket ACU as the third global
reserve currency will provide the world with the
opportunity to more appropriately balance economic
influence and trade.
Over the next decade, we will move unmistakably towards a multi-polar world which will be characterized by
a much broader consultative process that extends to a larger number of jurisdictions. Greater coordination
amongst major economies on financial sector regulation will be needed, and this can be facilitated by the
newly enlarged Financial Stability Board based in Basle. At its core, the coordination will have to be aimed
at achieving greater trust in the transparent and universally applicable working of the financial system. This
will especially need to dispel the fear that the global financial system has a bias in favour of any one country
or group of countries or group of dominant institutions. As the G20 has superseded the G7, financial
management of the global system must become more equable: Within this it is possible that a more prominent
role is given to Special Drawing Rights - the international reserve assets managed by the IMF that currently
amount to over $300 billion. It was used to boost global liquidity in 2009, but additional ongoing and arguably
more proactive applications should be made more practical.
Proposed Way Forward
The introductionof a broad-basketACU (AsianCurrency Unit)as the third globalreserve currencywill provide theworld with theopportunity tomore appropriatelybalance economicinfluence andtrade.
35Future of Currency
When the European Monetary System first came into
effect in March 1979, few people believed that within
two decades a single European currency would be a
reality. At the time of inception the European Currency
Unit (ECU) had as little chance of becoming Europe’s
currency as Special Drawing Rights (SDR) had of
becoming the world’s currency.
If the Asian Development Bank takes the European
model forward and creates a parallel currency that is a
plural basket of national currencies, the Asian region
as a whole will gain some decoupling from the US
dollar. This will allow economic agents in the region to
invoice financial and trade transactions in a common
currency and reduce exchange rate risks as well as
channel Asia’s savings more efficiently within the
region. As a regional benchmark, the ACU will help
share the degree of divergence of each participating
countries’ currencies, which will improve the
understanding of generic problems in a particular
currency’s market and in pursuing macroeconomic
policies. The ACU can be used to devise new
instruments that can be easily traded across borders;
importers and exporters can denominate intra-Asian
trade in ACU; and governments and corporate bodies
may wish to issue bonds in ACU and banks can take
deposits and provide loans denominated in ACU. The
widespread use of ACU will definitely increase the
extent of financial and trade integration in this part of
the world. As such Asia as a whole, rather than as
individual countries, will achieve more balanced
influence in the global economy.
To overcome the obstacles that currently exist, such as
strengthening the Chaing Mai Initiative and the Asian
Bond Fund and managing diverse exchange rates, we
clearly need to create and strengthen international
safeguards and promote the use and acceptance of a
parallel currency. The move towards an ACU as a legal
tender alongside domestic currencies will necessitate
significant monetary and exchange rate cooperation
among participating countries and, as with Germany in
Europe, the role of a centre country or centre countries
also needs to be clear.
The US dollar currently acts as the de facto parallel
currency in Asia, just as it did in Europe in the early
1970s. However the fast emerging global rebalance is
very different to the world of the 1970s and
necessitates a move away from the dollar. It is in the
interest of the Asian central banks to move away from
the dollar to assets denominated in an alternative
currency, and the ACU can be that alternative. If the
ACU becomes a global reserve currency then a much-
needed, major world shift can occur: Central banks can
diversify their foreign currency reserves and hold part of
their reserves in ACU; investors can invest in ACU
denominated instruments; and both corporations and
national governments can finance their operations by
issuing ACU denominated debt. Such a move will have
a positive impact on reduction of global imbalance as it
will hasten the depreciation of the US dollar vis-à-vis
other countries.
The successful acceptance of an ACU driven by a wide basket of national currencies will, in itself, have
several significant impacts within Asia: If the ACU is positioned alongside the US dollar and the Euro as a third
global reserve currency the broader implications will be far-reaching.
Impacts and Implications
If the ACU ispositioned
alongside theUS dollar andthe Euro as athird global
reserve currencythe broader
implications willbe far-reaching.
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
36 Future of Currency
It is in the interestof the Asiancentral banksto move awayfrom the dollarto assetsdenominatedin an alternativecurrency, andthe ACU can bethat alternative.
37
Future of Data
D J CollinsHead of Corporate Communications and Public Affairs, Google
38
If we take the field of data to encompass all digital
factual information, the current work of both leaders
and emerging companies suggest the issues that will
arise in years to come. Companies such as IBM, Oracle
and SAS are making strides in data mining and
database management. Their research shows that
intelligent systems will become increasingly prevalent.
Other organisations, like Amazon, Sun and even
Google, are demonstrating the amazing benefits in
scale and interoperability that come through moving
data storage into the cloud. And, if one was to talk to
the people who are driving the web forward, they
anticipate a more powerful, flexible and useful web in
the years to come. The much-touted ‘semantic web’-
in which the relationships between pieces of
information will be both apparent and useable - may not
be imminent, but it’s certainly within sight. Its advent
will drive further research, and it will also make the web
more useful to people around the world.
As investment and regulation follows rapid development
of potential technologies, they will have to adapt to the
new challenges of the online world. Google is involved
in many of these, but for me the big issue at the heart
of the future is that of access to information…to data.
Today, anyone with an internet connection has access
to more information, quickly and easily, than was
available a generation ago to anyone not connected to
a research library or university. That’s an amazing
development, but we should remember that less than a
quarter of people globally have access to the web. New
developments will increase the speed, scale and
sophistication of the data we can use, but, for most
people, there is still a high barrier to access.
Access to information is the great leveller. It empowers
citizens and consumers alike. That’s why it’s imperative
that access to data be fast, cheap, and ubiquitous,
whether you are in the New York, Shanghai, Lagos or
Patagonia. Right now, in many parts of Africa and Asia,
internet connectivity is both expensive and slow. As
such, the positive benefits of the information age have
been unevenly enjoyed. Addressing this disparity is a
clear and significant challenge for the future.
The future of data is a broad topic, which can cover a range of issues: some technical, some regulatory,
some social and others philosophical. The web is still a young technology - it has only been twenty years
since Sir Tim Berners-Less and Robert Cailliau invented it at CERN: It will take many decades for us to fully
understand its impact on our society. And the pace of change on the Internet, and that which is enabled by
the Internet, is speeding up. Whatever happens, as it continues to develop, we’ll be presented with more
opportunities and more challenges. The web is a fundamentally democratic platform, and it reflects both
positive and negative aspects of the offline world.
The Global Challenge
Access toinformation is thegreat leveller.It empowerscitizens andconsumers alike.
39Future of Data
One certainty is that information discovery will continue
to get better. Wouldn’t it be good to have a system that
asks questions as well as answers them? A recent
article in the Economist described how this could
revolutionise innovation as we know it - citing a
research chemist at Pfizer as an illustrative example.
How cool would it be if he could find solutions to one
of the mysteries of science, perhaps cure a disease,
simply by asking the right question of the web? A
semantic search engine that has read (and understood)
all the relevant literature, interrogated the patent
libraries and medical records, and studied the chemical
theory, etc, might well suggest workable solutions.
Science fiction? Perhaps, but imagine the value of a
system that understands the relationships between
information in different corpora, created with vastly
different uses in mind.
It also seems clear that access to data will help to widen
the pool of potential creative ideas - a step on from
crowd sourcing towards democratized innovation. Think
of Wikipedia, the online encyclopaedia written by its
users, or iStockphoto allowing amateur photographers
to earn money selling their pictures alongside
professionals. Each combines cheap and widely
available tools to allow talented people to make the
most of the Internet’s distribution efficiency, and this
trend is only beginning.
Closer to hand is the migration of computer applications
from the desktop to the web. In this shift to cloud
computing, more and more of our personal and
professional lives will be spent using our web browsers.
That means browsers will have to be stable, powerful,
and above all secure.
Also apparent today is the role mobile phones will play
in improving access to the Internet (and therefore to
data). There are already nearly 4 billion mobile phones
in use today around the world, and over 80% of
humanity lives within range of a mobile network. At the
same time, the cost of web-ready phones continues to
fall. Computers are getting smaller and cheaper, and
the next generation of mobile networks will improve
access speeds. Already, net-books can cost as little as
$200, making them cheap enough to be given away
with mobile-broadband contracts in some countries.
Even when mobile access becomes universal, there will
still be real challenges connecting some places to the
larger Internet. There is reason for hope, though: a
series of new cables are in the works to improve
Africa’s connectivity with the rest of the world,
increasing capacity and reducing the cost of internet
access. The first of these, the SEACOM cable, eastern
Africa’s first modern submarine cable, was completed
in July 2009. In coming years, some places in Africa
may well have higher speed connections than parts of
Europe.
Doubling the number of people online will have an
amazing impact on innovation. More people (with more
diverse experiences than ever before) will be able to
contribute to the innovation happening online. That’s a
very exciting prospect.
The beauty of the internet, and therefore by association access to data, is in its unpredictability. The web’s
openness means that new innovations appear online every day. Some succeed and others don’t, and
successes spawn further innovation. Two years ago, for example, very few people would have predicted the
role that Twitter and YouTube played in the Iranian elections. Even so, as we look ahead, some things are clear.
Options and Possibilities
One certainty isthat information
discoverywill continue to
get better.
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
40 Future of Data
One pivotal issue will be identity online, as people
become more comfortable managing what information
they share about themselves, and with whom. Many
services on the web improve quickly when they people
give them access to personal information. An example:
in the process of crawling the web, Google visits more
than a trillion different pages. Several billion more are
added every day. Finding the right information is like
having a fraction of a second to find a needle in a
haystack of astronomical proportions. The links
between web pages are the first indicator of how
important any given page is, but our search logs provide
an excellent form of feedback on whether we're
providing the best results. But if people are comfortable
sharing their search history with us, we can use that as
a valuable signal to provide them more relevant
information more quickly.
The second and related issue, that I think needs to be
taken several steps forward in the next couple of years,
concerns regulation. There is an on-going discussion
about how to limit the uses of personal information
without compromising innovation or decreasing access
to information. Different countries have significantly
different views on this, but, as national boundaries
become less significant in a world of digital natives, we
need to decide what rules are necessary and how those
rules should be formulated. We all need to understand
the balance and consider the possibility for increasing
transparency in both directions. If people are given
access to data to re-use, the power of innovation shifts
to the public, and the potential for sharing of more ideas
increases exponentially.
If we consider what has been achieved in the past ten years, over the next decade we have the opportunity
to give more and more power to users. In the world of ubiquitous and uniform access, intelligent agents and
the semantic web, we have the potential to enable even greater shifts in transparency and access to data than
previous generations would have ever imagined. However, to achieve this we need to move forward on two
key topics that will moderate the impact that can be achieved.
The Way Forward
If people arecomfortablesharing theirsearch historywith us, we canuse that as avaluable signalto provide themmore relevantinformationmore quickly.
41Future of Data
Substantive research has already shown us that access to information has significant impact on quality of life
from an economic, social and political perspective in many dimensions. For example, think first of the
fishermen who can now identify in advance where they are most likely to get the best price for their catch and
so sail straight to the port and thus improve their efficiency and also profitability. Or think of the student who
can check online to see where friends a meeting up - and then decide whether to join in knowing who will be
around, what the music will be like and, even get information about how to get there. Access to new data is
already changing lives - what it will do in the future is pretty much only limited by our imagination.
Impacts and Implications
Future of Energy
Leo RoodhartPresident, Society of Petroleum Engineers and VP Group GameChanger, Shell
42
Whatever happens, supplies of easy-to-produce oil will
certainly not keep up with growing energy demand.
This is because, as economies grow and ascend the
energy ladder, demand is likely to double over the first
half of this century and we simply cannot increase (oil
and gas) production that fast. Even if we produce
energy from all possible sources it will be difficult to
meet the world’s growing needs. Within this context,
while oil will remain the leading energy source and there
will be some price volatility, the era of cheap oil is over.
The key questions being asked here are when is global
oil and gas production going to peak? This could be
anytime between now and 2040 for oil and a decade
later for gas. How can we take it out of the ground fast
enough to meet demand? How can we fill the gap
between supply and demand from renewable energy
such as wind, solar, etc or from coal or nuclear energy
when, historically, it has taken 25 years for new energy
sources and carriers to obtain a 1 percent share of the
global market following commercial introduction? And
will there be one leading alternative energy source?
To add more complexity, the oil market itself is also
undergoing major and lasting internal structural change,
with National Oil Companies (NOCs) in the ascendancy
against the Integrated Oils Companies (IOCs) such as
Shell, BP and Exxon. The NOCs have different
motivations for globalization: For example, as China
does not have many of own resources in oil and gas
(but lots of coal), the Chinese NOCs such as CNPC,
CNOOC and PetroChina all have a responsibility to
provide the ‘motherland’ with secure energy supplies.
Simultaneously, the NOCs of the major resource
holders such as KOC (Kuwait), Petronas (Malaysia)
want to expand globally in the downstream, i.e.
refineries, forecourts arenas, and so by-pass the
‘middle man’ (IOCs) who traditionally refine and sell
their crude oil. Others, like Saudi Aramco, simply want
to decrease their dependency on the technology owned
by the IOCs and develop their own staff. The key
questions being raised here are therefore what will the
role of the IOCs be in the future? And how can they
play a role in, for example, sustaining supplies of
affordable and responsibly produced oil and gas,
through better technology, cost reductions, more
efficient operations and fresh thinking?
Lastly, turning to the major challenge of climate
change, we have to be clear that emissions of CO2 and
other greenhouse gases are on an unsustainable
pathway. To avoid "abrupt and irreversible" climate
change we need a major decarbonization of the world’s
energy system.
The global energy system sits at the nexus of some of the deepest dilemmas of our times: prosperity versus
poverty; globalization versus security; and growth versus the environment. Current energy trends are patently
unsustainable — socially, environmentally, economically. That said, there is still plenty of oil and gas to be
found and produced, most of it is in increasingly difficult places - whether that’s difficult geology, difficult
environmental conditions or difficult politics.
The Global Challenge
The global energysystem sits atthe nexus of someof the deepestdilemmas of ourtimes: prosperityversus poverty;globalizationversus security;and growthversus theenvironment.
43Future of Energy
The other certainty is that, faced with the now fully
transparent challenges ahead, the world will electrify,
particularly in the mobility arena. While big-city traffic
such as buses, taxis and trams will come first,
developments in high-end electric cars, such as those
being introduced by Tesla, may help to accelerate
awareness and acceptance for the general car driving
public to switch to electric. That said, the main source
of electricity will continue to be from power plants
burning hydrocarbons for many decades: Sufficient
large-scale renewable electrons will not be available
before the middle of the century.
One of the main uncertainties is around global reserves
of hydrocarbons: Nobody really knows how much oil
and gas Saudi Arabia or Russia has. It is therefore
uncertain when global hydrocarbon production will
peak, level off or start to decline. We all recognise that
alternative sources of energy, renewables, coal and
nuclear are needed to fill the gap: Shell’s scenario
experts believe that renewable sources could provide
around 30% of the world’s energy by the middle of this
century, up from around 3% today. That would be
impressive growth, but it also means that it will take
forty years to get there and that fossil fuels and nuclear
will supply the remaining 70% even then.
While we wait for alternative energy to reach material
scale, we may well find it impossible to curb CO2
emissions in time because of the continuously
increasing overall demand for energy. Therefore to
prevent severe climate shocks we need to also focus
on reducing the CO2 intensity of fossil fuels. However,
the infrastructure required to capture and transport the
CO2 we want to eliminate will be massive, roughly
equal to the current infrastructure (pipelines, tankers,
facilities) to extract and transport oil and gas across the
globe. It is highly uncertain whether the world will be
able to build that in time.
Given the long timelines involved in delivering new
energy sources, CCS is a transition technology the
world simply cannot do without. Indeed the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) states that
it could provide over half of the global CO2 emissions
mitigation effort until 2100. But, in the short term,
while seeking to deploy CO2 Capture and Storage
technologies, many of the world’s energy companies
are also trying to address the challenge by reducing
the CO2-intensity of fossil energy by delivering more
natural gas, the cleanest-burning fossil fuel and by
helping the world to broaden the energy mix, with
involvement in wind, solar and, in particular, bio-fuels.
While the bio-fuels arena is fast developing from first
to second generation and also to marine algae, there
are also interesting developments around solar
energy. Electricity generated by solar panels is
predicted to become cheaper than electricity from
large scale coal or gas burning power plants within the
next 5 years, and countries like Abu Dhabi and Saudi
Arabia are planning large-scale solar power plants in
the desert.
Over the next decade and beyond, there are three main certainties which we call the 3 hard truths - increased
demand for energy, an associated struggle for supply to keep pace; and, consequently, increasing
environmental stresses: We cannot stop China and India from growing. Within this context, it is evident that
hydrocarbons (oil and gas) will remain the primary energy source of choice for the coming decades, gas will
become more important in the mix but both will be increasingly difficult to extract. Having picked much of the
low-hanging fruit, our industry is now focused on more difficult resources such as tight reservoirs, fractured
carbonates, oil shale, oil sands, and ultra-heavy oil.
Options and Possibilities
One of the mainuncertainties isaround globalreserves of
hydrocarbons:Nobody reallyknows how
much oil and gasSaudi Arabia or
Russia has.
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
44 Future of Energy
At the same time, given the energy supply challenge,
over the next ten years it is likely that enormous
amounts of money will be invested in finding and
developing new reserves, which will have an impact on
the oil price. Although the price of oil will always be
volatile, it is unlikely that oil will become cheap again.
The days of‘easy oil andgas’ are over.
45Future of Energy
• Scramble summary: In the Scramble scenario,
nations will rush to secure energy resources, fearing
that energy security is a zero-sum game, with clear
winners and losers. The use of local coal and home
grown bio-fuels will increase fast. Taking the path of
least resistance, policymakers will pay little attention
to curbing energy consumption - until supplies run
short. Likewise, despite much rhetoric, greenhouse
gas emissions are not seriously addressed until major
shocks trigger political reactions. Since these
responses are overdue, they are severe and lead to
energy price spikes and volatility. This is a turbulent
and uncomfortable world with many tensions and
insufficient attention to environmental issues.
• Blueprints summary: in this scenario energy security,
energy supply and environmental challenges are
anticipated and coalitions emerge to take the lead in
dealing with them. Much innovation occurs at the
local level, as major cities develop links with industry
to reduce local emissions. National governments
introduce efficiency standards, taxes and other policy
instruments to improve the environmental
performance of buildings, vehicles and transport
fuels. As calls for harmonization increase, policies
converge across the globe. Cap-and-trade
mechanisms that put a cost on industrial CO2
emissions gain international acceptance. Rising
CO2 prices accelerate innovation, thus spawning
breakthroughs. The energy system is much more
stable and environmental outcomes are much better
than in the Scramble world.
The best path forward would be to live and work in a
“Blueprint” world of a more stable energy system and a
more sustainable environment. This future offers a
better pathway to provide enough energy for economic
growth while managing greenhouse gas emissions.
I see three key areas where our industry can play a
positive role in promoting a gradual energy transformation:
First, we need to supply sufficient amounts of
affordable oil and gas to meet the world’s growing
energy needs. The days of ‘easy oil and gas’ are over.
Although there are still huge reserves in the Middle East
and possibly Russia, the western Integrated Oil
Companies (IOCs) have little or no access to those
reserves. The IOCs will focus in the coming decades
At Shell, we think the world could take one of two energy routes over the next 50 years, which we've called
- Scramble and Blueprints. These are both challenging outlooks. Neither are ideal worlds, yet both are feasible.
They describe an era of transformation. The choices made in the next five years will be critical in determining
which route is taken.
Proposed Way Forward
on the very high-tech, difficult reserves that can be
found in the Arctic and ultra deep water as well as the
technically challenging shale oil and ultra heavy oils
found in the Canadian oil sands. Gas will become more
dominant and technologies to liquefy gas through
cooling (LNG) or by chemically turning gas into diesel
(Gas-to-liquid) will require massive investments for the
years to come (Shell will invest in excess of $30bn in
2009, and Exxon will do similar).
Secondly, we need to reduce the CO2 intensity of fossil
fuels. The International Energy Authority believes that in
the period to 2030 the growth in CO2 emissions from
coal fired power generation in just three countries -
China, India and the US - will be double the growth in
emissions from all the transport worldwide. So the first
priority should be to deploy CCS in the power sector,
especially coal-fired power. In the transport sector,
where we can’t capture CO2 from billions of exhaust
pipes, the challenge is to reduce the CO2-intensity on
a ‘wells-to-wheels’ basis: We can make big gains by
mixing in sustainable bio-fuels, building lighter-weight
vehicles, and developing more efficient engines. In the
longer term, we can add CCS to hydrocarbon fuel
production to bring down well-to-wheel emissions even
further. Cumulatively, these measures will allow liquid
transportation fuels to compete with vehicle
electrification for a long time to come, especially since
electric mobility will depend for many years on coal and
other non-renewable resources. The world’s vehicle
fleet will more than double between now and 2050.
With a billion new vehicles on the world’s roads there
will be room and need for diverse energy sources for
transportation. The oil industry may play a role in
delivering more sustainable electricity, including through
natural gas, the cleanest burning fossil fuel, and
through CCS.
Thirdly, we can help the world to increase the share of
non-fossil fuels: Most oil and gas companies are
developing new areas of expertise outside of
hydrocarbons. Shell has serious involvement in wind,
has proprietary thin-film solar technology, and is a
leading player in bio-fuels. For the next few years, for
Shell it’s in bio-fuels where we will concentrate our
additional efforts. Bio-fuels are a natural fit with Shell’s
downstream capabilities in transport fuel, and, provided
they are sourced sustainably, they can make a huge
impact in reducing CO2 emissions from transport.
Other IOCs, such as Chevron, will choose to focus on
a mix of alternatives varying from solar to wind.
Gas will becomemore dominant
and technologiesto liquefy gas
through coolingor by chemicallyturning gas into
diesel willrequire massiveinvestments for
the years to come.
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
46 Future of Energy
The problems the world is facing around energy in the decades to come can only be solved by global
cooperation at an unprecedented scale. Massive investments are required in increased efficiency in using
energy and in solving the Global warming issue. The Blueprints scenario will be realized only if policymakers
agree on a global approach to emissions trading and actively promote energy efficiency and new technology
in four sectors: heat and power generation, industry, transport, and buildings. It is critical that the Copenhagen
summit in December must deliver a credible post-2012 climate regime. Time is short and we must move fast
and with the same ingenuity and persistence that put humans on the moon and created the digital age. For
instance we will need to develop Carbon Capture and Storage on a large scale. The Blueprints scenarios
assumes that CO2 is captured at 90% of all coal- and gas-fired power plants in developed countries by
2050, plus at least 50% of those in non-OECD countries. It is a big assumption; today, none capture CO2.
Because CO2 capture and storage adds costs and yields no revenues, government support is needed to
make it happen quickly on a scale large enough to affect global emissions. At the very least, companies
should earn carbon credits for the CO2 they capture and store.
Impacts and Implications
Because CO2capture andstorage addscosts and yieldsno revenues,governmentsupport is neededto make ithappen quicklyon a scale largeenough to affectglobal emissions.
47Future of Energy
Future of Food
Jim KirkwoodVice President R&D at the Center for Technology Creation, General Mills
48
In terms of demographics, we all now recognize that
with the world’s population growing to around 7bn by
2020 and 9bn by 2050, meeting our collective
nutritional needs is going to be a stretch. Adding on to
this is the growing middle class in Asia and Africa, who
are demanding more of the less calorically efficient
western diet, and, as a consequence, there will be a
significant strain on world food resources. Moreover,
with an ageing world demanding new healthful foods
and a more fragmented market demanding more
customization and personalization, food companies are
asking how they can deliver the right food to the
developed world while delivering enough food to meet
the needs and desires in Asia and Africa.
We are in a world of paradox where a growing portion
of the developed world is obese at the same time as
15% of the global population is facing hunger and
malnutrition as they can’t afford to buy the basics. As
a result food suppliers are looking for ways to both
design foods to help some people eat less while also
delivering food that is affordable, safe and nutritious
for those who need more. How can we best balance
this equation?
We are also in a world where food safety is a growing
not diminishing concern. With increased evidence of
food-borne illnesses and more prevalent, virulent
natural as well as malicious man-made safety issues,
we must protect our supplies in order to mitigate the
risks. The world regulatory environment is consequently
becoming ever more restrictive and the food industry
has to both build trust with consumers at the same time
as using new affordable technologies to ensure that
their food is safe and secure.
Given that ‘government’ uses regulation and taxes to
drive change, a question is what the impact on the
economics and profitability of the food industry will be?
Globalization continues to break down geographic
barriers and equalize food economies across the world,
so we face several uncertainties around food supply:
The need for renewable sources of energy is driving the
food vs. fuel conflict as bio-fuels compete for food
acres and increasing competition raises commodity
prices; population change, climate change and security
challenges all increase variability and make food supply
costs less predictable; and, because of the increasing
demand from developing countries, there is significant
trade-offs between calories of grain vs. calories of meat
and dairy which means that complete protein
commodities are becoming increasingly scarce and
alternative sources will be required. How then can we
control ingredient and energy costs in order to make
nutritious food that people will want to buy? How can
we ensure that we will have enough protein to meet
global needs? How do we ensure a predictable supply
of food? And how will new consumers change the
demand cycle?
On top of all of this, there is the sustainability challenge:
As ever, more unstable weather adds uncertainty to
overall food supply and costs, so will increasing over-
exploitation of land resources and the depletion of
aquifers result in a decrease in the acres of arable land
available to grow enough food. In addition, over-fishing
of oceans will continue to decrease the supply and
increase the cost of fish protein.
The demand, supply and composition of food over the next decade is facing a number of major challenges
ranging from demographics, obesity, hunger and food security to the implications of globalization,
sustainability, consumer choice and new technologies. Taken in isolation, each of these challenges provides
us with some fundamental decisions. Taken together they are a formidable and accelerating global test.
The Global Challenge
We are in a worldof paradox wherea growing portionof the developedworld is obese atthe same time as15% of the globalpopulation isfacing hunger andmalnutrition asthey can’t affordto buy the basics.
49Future of Food
Demographically, as the overall global population
increases we know, for instance, that by 2020 China
and India will have over 33% of the total and the US
will, for example, become more ethnically diverse. We
know that the food market is very fragmented and there
is no ‘one size fits all’ and as the health challenges of
obesity and malnutrition continue. We know that more
healthy, nutritious food is a ‘must have’. We also know
that the right amount of food will not be in the right
places to feed the world affordably.
Environmentally, as oil-based energy resources diminish
and water for agricultural use becomes more limited,
we know that commodities, and especially meat and
dairy proteins, will become more expensive. As the
world becomes more connected, there will be more
global crises related to biological and chemical factors
such as SARS, Avian Flu, H1N1 etc. These crises will
have socio-economic effects that cause industry shifts
in demand and supply as imports / exports are
restricted and all of certain livestock (i.e. the chickens
in a region) are killed - remember Hong Kong in 1997
and 2008?
Technologically, over the next decade, there will be
significant advances in areas such as bioengineering,
genetics and nutrition. Advances in information
technologies will improve the production and distribution
of food. However more paradoxes will continue to exist:
obesity vs. malnutrition; traditional authentic vs.
bioactive delivery; sustainability vs. convenience; and
the anti GMO consumer attitude vs. the need for GMO
to feed the world.
What we are less sure about are the unpredictability in
consumer attitudes and the technical potential of
‘pharma foods’.
Consumer perceptions around the necessary trade-offs
between food science vs. food simplicity will be a
challenge to manage and may impact the ability of the
food industry to implement the needed solutions: Will
consumers, for instance, accept the need for
genetically modified or artificial foods in order to feed
the masses and provide health benefits at lower cost
or will they want more natural foods? Equally changing
consumer preferences are uncertain: Will demand for
expensive individual customization continue to increase
while consumers also want less expensive products?
Will traditional branded products remain relevant and
valued as retailers build their own-brand products? Will
customers want convenient single-serve portions while
also wanting to be more sustainable?
Pharma-foods, the intersection between food and
pharmaceuticals, is an area of growing opportunity for
many in the food sector. As consumers demand more
technologically sophisticated foods with unique,
complex health benefits, food companies will need to
respond. We now understand more about individual’s
disease propensities from the human genome.
Therefore nutrigenomic determination of diet becomes
technically possible. Technology is advancing and as
natural bioactive components are better understood,
the line between pharma and food will blur: The
challenge will be how to continue to find new ways to
continue to provide natural, food-delivered preventative
health benefits and begin to provide natural, food-
delivered disease state improvement benefits without
food becoming a drug.
There are three main certainties about the next decade which can be seen as demographic, environmental
and technological.
Options and Possibilities
Consumerperceptionsaround thenecessarytrade-offs
between foodscience vs.
food simplicitywill be a
challenge tomanage
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
50 Future of Food
I see that to both enable and build on this, we should
establish a global infrastructure to incentivize
public/private collaboration and investment consortia
that can be leveraged to advance the necessary
technical solutions to address malnutrition, obesity and
increasing agricultural production. We need to
significantly increase global research investment in
biotechnology, genetics, food science and nutrition to
reach the technical breakthroughs required for a
second agricultural green revolution that will enable us
to feed the world. In addition we must invest in
exploration/research and development of the meat and
vegetable protein alternatives that can efficiently meet
the world’s increasing need. We should also initiate a
coordinated worldwide science education effort to help
developed populations of the world understand and
accept the technical solutions that will be required solve
the coming world food crisis.
At the same time, we must continue to support Africa,
India and China in building viable economies to bring
the vast numbers of their populations out of starvation
and poverty; we should incentivize developing
countries to invest more heavily in their own R&D for
self sufficiency and potential global trade; and we
need to build substantial food education programs
across the world which focus on dietary and nutritional
health and wellbeing.
In order to achieve this, a number of compromises may
be required - some of which are within the control of
the food industry and others not: Free market principles
may be compromised as governments become more
involved in the food business; food companies may
need to consider sharing intellectual property more,
being open with technical breakthroughs and, in certain
cases, trading off competitive advantage for the greater
good; food industry profit margin expectations may
need to be adjusted or subsidized in order to enable the
provision of sufficient food in key regions such as India;
producers may be forced to accept reductions in crop
yields to comply with sustainability demands, implement
significant shifts in agricultural production methods and
also grow non-traditional crops to produce the right
food in the right quantity for the right geography; the
established western companies will need to develop
partnerships with new companies from developing
countries to gain access to the new markets where
most of the economic growth will take place; and
traditional western agribusiness approaches may need
to change as Asian populations grow and these
markets become dominant.
By 2020, it is probable that there will be a number of global policies in place on climate change, energy and
agricultural methods. These will be supported by incentives and public / private collaborations to develop new
technical solutions. Regulation is likely that will, for example, direct land usage for meat and dairy production
vs. grain and it is a good bet that another ‘green revolution’ will increase the yield of food supply possibly
involving bioengineering and genetic modification. These could deliver step-change increases in the efficiency
of food production and may involve frame-breaking science such as edible oil from algae and lab-grown meat
protein. In addition, the development of non-meat, high protein foods as meat alternatives or acceptable protein
vegetable alternatives could help us more efficiently meet the increasing world protein demand.
Proposed Way Forward
We need tosignificantlyincrease globalresearchinvestment inbiotechnology,genetics, foodscience andnutrition to reachthe technicalbreakthroughsrequired for asecondagricultural greenrevolution thatwill enable us tofeed the world.
51Future of Food
As a result, the dietary habits of consumers may well
change due to availability and the prices of agricultural
materials: For example, western populations may need
to adjust to consuming more plant based sources of
protein as their choices for protein may decrease. In
addition, driven by economic and/or political pressure,
consumers may also be required to change their food
shopping habits.
The future of food will have major implications for many
other areas: The supply of energy; the use of water;
the processing of waste and the state of our health are
all obvious arenas of direct influence, but food will also
both impact and be impacted by future choice,
authenticity, connectivity, work and money. Food is
fundamental to economics, politics and other societal
issues whether directly or as support technologies.
If we get the regulation, technology and consumer
attitudes right, over the next ten years we can make
a shift: We really do have the opportunity to address
the challenges presented to food by the demands of
demographics, obesity, hunger and food security and
the implications of globalization and sustainability. The
issue is how best to do this collaboratively.
In the next decade, the world economics of food will change and food will change the economics of the
world. Investment in food production, research and technology development must become a priority.
Consumers and society in general will need to become more literate in science and more science education
will be required for the population to understand and accept the technology required to feed the world: The
natural / local / authenticity trend may become obsolete. The global community (governments, academia and
industry) will need to collaborate in a much more effective way or face the societal, ethical and political
consequences of large portions of the population not having the food they need. World food production and
agriculture must become more globally integrated - A true working world market will be required. Decisions
on where and what to produce must be made on a global basis not on an individual market or geography.
Political and societal pressure for change will increase as the population and need for affordable food
increases in Asia, Africa and India and the disparity between the West and emerging economies around food
becomes even more stark.
Impacts and Implications
In the nextdecade, the world
economics offood will change
and food willchange the
economics ofthe world.
Investment infood production,
research andtechnology
developmentmust become
a priority.
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
52 Future of Food
Decisions onwhere and whatto produce mustbe made on aglobal basis noton an individualmarket orgeography.
53
Future of Health
Dr Jack LordCEO, Navigenics Inc.
54
Firstly, between now and 2020 we are likely to see
somewhere between 2 to 3 global pandemics. Several
years ago the pandemic of Avian flu began in Asia;
today the world faces the Swine flu that can be traced
back to central and south America. And tomorrow? In
general these pandemics arise in areas that do not
have the top tier of preventative or public health
infrastructure and, from there, spread to the advanced
Western countries. And our ability to achieve global
bio-surveillance for disease is limited because of
unequal infrastructure, inadequate local investments
and only limited global cooperation. So issue number
one is bio-surveillance and adequacy of public
health infrastructure.
This raises the age-old social questions about
re-distribution of wealth from the richest nations to the
poorest ones. Perhaps this is the decade that it will
occur? If “enlightened self-interest” is a driver of
behaviour, then in a world with airplanes, ships, and
dependencies on global sourcing for food, it seems only
logical to attack the pre-existing conditions that give
rise to pandemic and invest in the infrastructure to track
and treat. Of the issues the “answer” is the easiest of
the global challenges - the question is “is there a will to
do this?”
Secondly, for the industrialized world from the United
States to Europe to Japan the cost burdens of
healthcare in the face of demographic shifts (aging),
increasing rate of chronic illness and related pre-cursor
conditions (eg obesity) present enormous systemic
challenges. The increasing cost of these effects
government and personal budgets but has failed to
provoke a change in approach. The context of these
systems is a cultural “more is better” attitude to the
investment in treatment of illness without a
corresponding investment in prevention and health.
The industrial age model of treating disease in hospitals
or other high intervention settings has almost a “nuclear
arms” like pace of investment that outstrip any evidence
of improved productivity or quality of life. So issue
number two: “The world is older, sicker and fatter” than
it has ever been.
We are victims of our own success. By successfully
“rooting out” the causes of death and at least deferring
death, we have ended up in a spot with far more people
living into age bands that the world hasn’t had
experience before. Consider this - today there are more
people living over the age of 65 than ever have before
in the entire history of the world! How do we adjust to
new roles for people in these age bands? How do we
engage their minds so that they remain active and
contributing in the face of age related changes? What
are the new rules for work, retirement, and “family”?
What do our communities need to look like? And
stepping beyond that the “rules” of history around work,
exercise, food and natural resources are turned upside
down. In a world where we used to get paid for
physical work, we now pay to go to gyms to work out!
We have created incredible productivity for relatively
cheap food and have been super sized as a result! And
today we pay more for water than we do for petrol. So,
issues like behavioral change, social policies around
obesity and personal responsibility for health, public
investment in programs to prevent illness through a
variety of means are all questions in an incredibly
complex situation.
Thirdly, the role of healthcare as an important part of
the economic infrastructure is often overlooked.
Balancing investments in new technologies, prevention,
healthcare related Information Technology with existing
The world is a connected and shrinking place - and whilst we all are connected - the global issues for health
are both dissimilar but connected! How so? I see three major challenges:
The Global Challenge
Between nowand 2020 we arelikely to seesomewherebetween 2 to 3global pandemics.
55Future of Health
labor intense processes present a challenge. The
balancing is complex in and of itself, so high
expenditure already does not guarantee a high level of
quality. Above and beyond this whilst almost every
industrialized country has undertaken some approaches
to healthcare reform, none have tackled the
fundamental economic questions about healthcare, the
healthcare workforce, and healthcare investment. This
issue needs to be contextualized to the other societal
investments that need to be made in education,
sustainability and infrastructure. So issue number three
is the ‘right’ amount of healthcare to spend as a
percentage of GDP.
There are two tracks here: One related to the
revamping of the provisioning of health care services
and the other around the process of discovery. On
provisioning, when will the industry join the “information
age”, how will it rethink the labor and productivity
related challenges, and how and who will provide
prevention services? Embedded in this discussion is the
entire transition from a “sick care” system to a “health
care” system. The investment in discovery will parallel
that transition - from “thermonuclear war” against death
to the aspirational march to improving health and the
quality of life. How do government policies need to
change to re-prioritize these investments? How does
government thinking need to move from “budgeter” to
“risk manager”? And how do new discoveries around
genetics, probabilistic medicine and regeneration
influence the balance of prevention vs. treatment?
China, India andthe Middle Eastare all seeing
spikes in the ratesof diabetes, heart
disease andobesity. It is an
inevitable marchthat seems to beassociated withaffluence and a
knowledge basedeconomy.
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
56 Future of Health
There is a reasonable level of certainty to the waves of
infectious pandemics - what is not clear is the source
and vectors. But given history, these diseases seem
to follow a wave form and become generally more
complex to treat and eradicate.
On the provisioning of health care, inertia seems to be
the greatest force. Whilst there are many great
discussions of healthcare reforms, the betting man
would need to say that the problems as they exist today
will only grow as budgets get leaner and the population
has greater demands. On discovery, high probability of
a “fly” wheel effect for new diagnostic and therapeutic
interventions; a questionable appetite to rebalance and
invest in prevention
There are two paths that need to be worked in parallel.
A holistic view of what needs to change for the twenty
first century and a geographically focused bottom up
for reforming healthcare systems.
As the old saying goes “nothing is certain but death and taxes”. But the pandemic of chronic illness and
obesity is about as certain as one could come too. And that certainty isn’t only for the developed world; it
appears to be certain for the developing world as well: China, India and the Middle East are all seeing spikes
in the rates of diabetes, heart disease and obesity. It is an inevitable march that seems to be associated with
affluence and a knowledge based economy.
Options and Possibilities
Holistically the possible changes that need to be
considered include; the move from a sick-care system
to a healthcare systems accompanied by a shift from a
passive view to health to a more active view to co-
creating health. At the same time we could change
from conducting research to treat disease primarily to
one where a balanced research investment - disease
and prevention. In parallel with this, we can choose to
migrate from provincial mindsets of health systems to a
more global view of health and disease, and move from
a professional driven system to a popular frame of
consumer driven health.
In an ideal worldthe organizationsresponsible forglobal healthwould move fromtheir marginalizedroles to a leadrole on the publicstage.
57Future of Health
Many would now agree that, from the bottom up,
individual health economies need to undertake
assessments of future risk and management of future
health inflation. In addition, we need to establish public
policy forums around entitlement to health, sharing
risks, personal responsibility, and basic health access
vs. specialized healthcare services. The exploration of
the utility and impact of social media, transparency of
information and incentives and rewards for healthy
behaviors is another one on the ‘to-do’ list. On top of
that we should review the effectiveness of bio-
surveillance programs and undertake strategic planning
for the role of the healthcare industry in context of
domestic economies
I see that in an ideal world the organizations responsible
for global health would move from their marginalized
roles to a lead role on the public stage. From that
stage, the items that need to be addressed include;
looking at population health from a risk managers view
with subsequent strategies for mitigating or eliminating
risk; leveraging the emerging power of science that
allows us to predict future health and take organized
steps to prevent illness; creating a global approach to
sharing best practices, standards for information
technology platforms; leveraging technologies to
improve bio-surveillance and; providing education and
access to social media resources that enable people to
better co-create their own health as opposed to being
dependent on a sick-care system or be subject to
environmental influences that they are completely
unaware about.
Given the three main issues of improving bio-surveillance and adequacy of public health infrastructure; dealing
with a world that is older, sicker and fatter than it has ever been; and, at the same time, determining the “right”
amount of healthcare spend as a percentage of GDP, we have some pretty substantial challenges to address.
However, as outlined above, we also have a number of alternatives available to us. So what is the best
path forward?
Proposed Way Forward
While health changes will affect and be affected by
developments outside in such areas as food,
technology, housing, public policy and financing, the
core implications are clear. Each of the issues discussed
contains a paradox that challenges our conventional
ideas about how we think about these risks.
To protect ourselves from rogue infections on our own
shores, in today's interconnected world we may have to
think about investing in a global public health
infrastructure abroad. The boundary between us and
them is permeable.
We tend to view our personal health behaviors as
personal and not really anybody else's business but our
own, and yet the diseases that issue from our indolence,
gluttony, and addictions to tobacco and alcohol are
going to be financed by those of us who chose to
exercise, eat sensibly, and shun smoke and drink. The
boundary between me and you is permeable.
And we tend to think that the way to reduce health
costs is to beat down the supply of care, when we really
need to invest in preventive strategies today that will
reduce the future demand for care. The boundary
between now and later is permeable.
To manage these risks we need to get beyond the
binary thinking. Between this and that, between us and
them, between you and me, between now and later,
there is an infinity of intimate connections that we can't
ignore and we can't break. We can't choose between
personal behavior and social responsibility. It has to be
both because our personal behavior has social
consequences. We can't choose between reducing
health costs and investing in health promotion - it has
to be both or we won't have either. We need a new kind
of thinking for the pursuit of health.
While progress could be achieved from quickly addressing the key challenges, unfortunately the most likely
outcome is one that results from inertia The next decade is not likely to be the time for change, but instead
a time that “stressors” on the system become progressively evident. The march of increased burdens of
demography and chronic illness will remain unabated; for industrialized countries the ratio of workers
contributing to the system compared to the people utilizing government sponsored entitlements will continue
to drop; and international collaboration to prevent illness in underserved regions will likely remain perfunctory.
The net - net is we will see continuing and rising concerns about health and health care setting up the next
decade for fundamental change.
Impacts and Implications
The next decadeis not likely to be
the time forchange, but
instead a time that“stressors” on thesystem becomeprogressively
evident. Increasedburdens of
demography andchronic illness willremain unabated.
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
58 Future of Health
We can't choosebetween reducinghealth costs andinvesting in healthpromotion - it hasto be both or wewon't have either.
59
Future of Identity
Professor Mike Hardy OBEStrategic Leader for Intercultural Dialogue, The British Council
60
Firstly, what I see as the challenge of ‘more-of-the-
same’. There are few signs that the existing challenges
associated with single-dimension personal and social
identity (whether as social role or type of identity)
are slowing down. So, North vs. South continues to
matter - even though new issues of East vs. West are
also becoming apparent. Similarly, identities around
faith, social mobility, language, gender and age,
among others, will continue to create more and
bigger challenge.
Secondly, the ‘dealing-with-multiple-identities’ challenge
is likely to become more complex and more significant.
As our world becomes smaller through migration and
mobility, both virtual and real, it may be that people and
groups will express themselves more insistently through
multiple rather than single identity lenses. So it will be
the particular ingredients of the ‘cocktail identity’ (the
combination of personas and their consequences) which
will be the more significant. How will we protect and
respect apparently contradictory and multiple identities?
Will it be through identity personas that we define or will
it be from an integrated set of values?
Thirdly, there is the ‘new-generation-identity’ challenge.
This will be where the answers to the ‘who are you?’
questions are framed in completely unexpected ways.
Here lies perhaps the most interesting (and
challenging) of all - a new demographic, a new
generation of (especially younger) people creating or
reflecting new types of social membership. These
memberships may be a reaction to what we currently
have or be the transient results of increasingly fluid
social networking, the automaticity of easy travel and
instantaneous communication. How can we make any
assumptions about how a 15-year-old frames her or his
definitions about self and awareness of self?
Fourthly, the ‘the-virtual-identities’ challenge. The
increasing application of smart working and virtual
engagement is creating whole new paradigms for
identity. Teams of young, professional South Asians
are trained in new identity characteristics (US-English
accents, up-to-the-moment knowledge of current US
television soap). Hence, qualified in new role and type
identities, they can be profitably applied to a call-centre
industry but separated from customers; more solemnly,
military drone-airplane operators can operate at a
continental distance and return home to supper with
their families at the end of a work-shift. We are turning
identities into jobs (rather than jobs into identities) but
creating new types of social dislocation.
If in each of the four cases, “identity” means either a
socially distinguishing feature that a person takes a
special pride in, or a social membership governed by
rules, attributes or behaviours (or both at the same time
in certain instances), then the global challenges are
around where difference is articulated hierarchically
(haves-have nots, traditional-new, digital native-digital
immigrant, home birds-migrants and so forth.) In the
case of the new generation, we may not be able to
predict the challenge at all - as we do not yet
understand the basic paradigm - and nor by definition
should we!
The uncertainty relating to how well we will manage
diversity is another significant issue. In this regard,
the potential ‘clash of identities’ must relate to
a community membership, let’s say European
citizenship. This brings with it the complex pattern of
relationships people have to nationality. Oversimplifying
nationality by seeing it as a simple and single
identity type (and hence in the same way citizenship)
would be dangerous. Diversity is the existence of
Identity provokes challenge in many ways. I want to suggest four challenges that might be considered noisier
than others:
The Global Challenge
How can wemake anyassumptionsabout how a15-year-oldframes her orhis definitionsabout self andawarenessof self?
61Future of Identity
multiple and parallel identities within one nation, each
with its own context and origin. These multiple identities
define and describe contemporary citizens (perhaps and
at the same time with a religion, a set of skills, a
first/second language, food preferences and so on).
They are further distinguishable by geographic origin,
political persuasion, level of education etc.
So, given the multi-layered and multi-dimensional
nature of nations, communities and individuals, the
challenge to bring positive coexistence is to develop a
cohesive set of values with due regard for diversity and
individual rights, and find successful ways of promoting
difference while also identifying and embedding a
shared identity among community members.
A certainty overthe next ten
years will be thecontribution of
identity issues todiversity, and to
the challenges ofdiversity and ofliving together incommunities of
multiple cultures.
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
62 Future of Identity
That said, a certainty over the next ten years will be the
contribution of identity issues to diversity, and to the
challenges of diversity and of living together in
communities of multiple cultures. It is clear that people
will continue to be mobile and migrate in huge numbers
as economics, politics, climate and so forth, provide
incentives. The more marginalized and excluded groups
will probably not join such movement over the next ten
years, constrained by their restricted toolkits and
opportunities. Such mobility will create new sustainable
and diverse communities characterised by the much
greater proximity of different identity types.
Issues of the cohesion of these new communities,
together with a strengthened sense of protectionism
and resistance to further diversification will prevail. In
the UK, communities are seen as communities where
there is a common vision and a sense of belonging
shared by all members with respect and understanding
of their diverse backgrounds and circumstances. A
cohesive community also displays strong and positive
relationships between its members and similar life
opportunities are actively promoted. So the joining of
very different identity types and roles need not lead to
a non-cohesive community, but what seems clear in
many European and North American contexts is that at
this moment in time, cohesion is not easy and requires
deliberate policies and actions.
Bad experience within diverse communities has been
considerable. This has created stronger understanding
of, but also stronger positions on, the notion of ‘cultural
pluralism’. In the wider Europe, experience of a number
of different measures and policy approaches following
racial and ethnic discrimination and conflict has
increased awareness about various cultures, religions,
Of course it may be more productive to ask associated questions by dispensing with “identity” and analysing
instead the political implications of personal desires for dignity, honour, and self-respect and the politics of the
membership of social groups. In a future 2020 European context, for example, a mono-layered European
identity is less likely (and maybe even less desirable); socio-economic and political crises, along with a
deteriorating climate, will provoke increasing protectionism - essentially stronger boundaries and potential
‘exclusion’ zones that will brigade sameness.
Options and Possibilities
races, ethnicities, attitudes and opinions which might
be thrown together in a single community. Responses
have ranged from so-called ‘Multiculturalism’ (often
criticised for reinforcing barriers with its emphasis on
respect and acknowledgement of differences) to either
dialogue and actions aspiring to openness and
interaction between cultures in order to lead to long
term change or the application of more formal rules of
engagement with integration as the planned result.
I suspect that in the next decade we are likely to move
more quickly and more widely towards an integrated
identity for work and social interaction, although we
may see a serious reinforcement of difference in the
private world. What will appear as cohesive and
connected communities may well be quite
schizophrenic. This describes a community where
members play out distinctive identities depending on
the community context they find themselves in. Though
this might be a reasonably certain outcome, as yet we
do not really understand the nature of the challenge
that it creates. It may be that our communities are
stable and secure when times are reasonably OK but
hugely fragile when exogenous threats appear or bad
times arrive.
As I have implied, peoples in the joined-up and
interrelated world of the 21st Century will need to come
to terms with a plethora of pluralistic identities. In the
future, to be a Brazilian or Asian, or indeed a young
global citizen, will mean being much more than one rigid
thing. Above all, peoples will have to come to terms with
new community defined identities, which would include
Russian-Arab and European and may even challenge
the rugby world to add London-Polish to the London-
Irish in that league. Many other such identities will
challenge the shaping of communities, nations and
regions characterised not by multiculturalism per se, but
more by the coincidence and co-existence of multiple
cultures where transcending difference and somehow
helping to bring out the strengths (benefits) of living
together becomes an imperative.
Communication technology adds another layer of
complexity. A significant proportion of this emerging
generation may actively and deliberately develop parallel
identities - teenagers constrained by conservative family
contexts who use on-line dating and chat rooms to
create alternative egos and behaviours in the virtual
world. The potential challenge here may focus on a
whole generation who fail to ‘comply’ with traditional
rules, or who collapse into an inter-generational crisis.
If what is certain is that communities of different
identities will continue to proliferate, and that such
communities will increasingly have evident majority and
minority ‘identities’, what is not certain is how
community members will react and behave. Many
believe that unless the diversities and varieties are
harnessed and understood as community benefits, we
have a problem, as more likely than not, without this,
communities will not be sustainable.
In the nextdecade we arelikely to movemore quickly andmore widelytowards anintegrated identityfor work andsocial interaction.
63Future of Identity
Interventions by community (or national) leadership:
These would create the formal rules for social identity
groups - based on the desired and negotiated shared
values. So, this means introducing accepted and
enforceable laws that govern the behaviours within
diverse communities and promote community
cohesion. These would elevate community practices
above difference, and create space for difference to
exist as difference.
Changing the impact of identity issues by growing
understanding and trust within communities: Finding
ways of bringing people from different groups together
and encouraging collaboration between these people
helps create more comfort with difference. Recent work
suggests that contact is successful in bringing about
more positive attitudes towards others, reducing
prejudice and also building long-lasting friendships. The
approach is based on the premise that everyone,
individually and as a nation, benefits from knowing,
experiencing and working with other cultures, as the
focus with these projects are the commonalities that
bind groups together, rather than their differences.
Intercultural Dialogue is one of the ways in which
people can be brought together for such collaboration.
It is also important to stress the significance of the
individual as well as the community, and the benefits of
dialogue between individuals and communities. There is
probably more to be gained from a culturally open and
diverse way of life that involves interaction and dialogue
with other individuals and groups than there is for a
culturally self-contained existence. So, should
community leaders or the state set the agenda? Culture
and identity are so deeply linked into our everyday lives
that high degrees of openness are often more
successful if they are generated from the individual or
community. Dialogue and openness should not be
about abstract notions of cohesion or integration, but
about practical things. Communities can sit down and
discuss real issues of concern and potential tension.
Economic growth and stability: Identities matter most
when difference is seen as threatening - and the
threats are greatest when times are bad. This is
probably the most plausible approach to mitigation of
the worst case identity scenarios, though the extent to
which it is a sustaining and sustainable solution is
questionable. Ultimately we can make difference less of
an issue through prosperity and plenty, but we may not
actually be addressing the core problem.
In my view there are two huge compromises that need
to be made for solutions to gain traction and impact.
Firstly, we must have a commitment to an honest, true
account of the past. Intercultural exchange cannot be
viewed without consideration of global movements and
global communication. It is also often asserted that one
can only understand one’s own culture by looking at
other cultures. This requires being able to see one’s
own culture from an outsider’s perspective to some
extent; using an historical approach can help.
Second, diaspora matters. Diasporas provide a key link
between identity, history and now. Engaging with
diaspora space and identity strengthens understanding
of how and where identity and difference are made and
remade. Through migration, peoples are dispersed
across many physical borders. Through these journeys,
diasporas also cross social, conceptual, and
psychological borders. The diaspora and its location
becomes a distinctive place built by immigration, while
including the indigenous population as an integral part
of a diaspora space. Identity in a diaspora space or
The main issues for us to address going forward are the challenges associated with the complex impact of
identity and identities in communities. There are probably only three possible solutions.
Proposed Way Forward
The main issuesfor us to addressgoing forward are
the challengesassociated with
the compleximpact of identity
and identitiesin communities.
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
64 Future of Identity
location develops as an ongoing process that can
change with situations and experiences. Again,
intercultural dialogue can help with understanding
processes within diaspora space.
Coming to termswith the impactof identity anddiversity requiresus to renegotiateour approachto difference, toreject itsdemonisationwithoutabandoning it.
65Future of Identity
If global economic and technological events, processes
and change are creating difficulties for individuals to
cling on to traditional notions of identity (of both type
and role), and challenging our self-confidence and our
ability to really understand ourselves, they may at the
same time be redefining our potential and the
opportunities on offer for human development. Take for
example, the virtual world which radically changes the
notions of interface. This line of thought takes us quickly
to the potential consequence of a world economic order
which forms and massages identity types to deliver
majority identity agendas, whether for political or
economic gain. The influence of Hollywood or
Bollywood, the globalisation of brands or the promotion
of single-minded liberal democracy comes to mind.
Coming to terms with the impact of identity and diversity
requires us to renegotiate our approach to difference,
to reject its demonisation without abandoning it.
Communities must create space for difference to exist
as difference, and for diverse communities to exist
within their own parameters. This view would enable us
to confront the challenge without creating all-embracing
and philosophical solutions. Assimilation, integration,
multiculturalism and the like either eradicate or reinforce
difference, whereas success (whatever that means) will
require that minority identities retain some of their roots.
The path forward should be one which frames diversity
within shared values, where both majority and minority
cultures need to abandon the idea that a single truth
can be imposed on a plural society and where diverse
personal and social identity is mobilised as a good
rather than as a source of struggle. Inter- and intra-
cultural dialogue must create the space and opportunity
for reasoned disagreement and elevate co-existence in
the confined spaces of communities to a higher level.
This requires us to move forwards from a place where
identities are contested and in constant rivalry.
Socially, identity has become a complex and central phenomenon, and with it diversity itself has become one
of the single most important issues for human development. To accommodate diversity, we have to come to
terms with multiple and changing identities. What we define and describe as our constituent parts, say in
Europe or in Asia, become an integral part of ourselves. It is not just that these parts coexist in communities,
but their ideas, art, literature, food and lifestyles now play a central part in shaping both the communities and
the individual. In best cases, the difference is evaporating; and we must adjust to this radical change.
Impact and Implications
Future of Migration
Professor Richard BlackHead of School of Global Studies, University of Sussex and Director, Sussex Centre for Migration Research
66
• First, most poorer people in the world are unable to
migrate internationally, and so are unable to share in
any benefits of international migration; and that even
where they do, the ability of their home communities
and families to benefit from this migration is
often limited.
• Second, less visible forms of migration, such as
internal, temporary, seasonal or child migration
usually offer much lower benefits, yet often carry
greater costs for poor people.
• Third, migration to newer regional centres in the
Middle East, Central, East and SE Asia or parts of
Africa give rise to new challenges in countries that
have limited infrastructure or policies to deal with
immigrant rights, integration or ‘multicultural’
societies in the Western sense.
All three of these challenges impact a larger number of
people, to a greater degree of significance, than the
‘classic’ challenges of integration and diversity that
currently hold such a strong policy focus in the global
‘North’. If we focus on the consequences of migration
for poor people and poor countries, then a number of
associated questions come into play that are of
importance over the next decade.
First, in relation to the exclusion or limited involvement
of poor people from international migration, questions
include:
• Is there scope for relaxation of controls on migration,
particularly where this can be demonstrated to have
beneficial macro-economic effects on sending and
receiving countries?
•What is the role of education in giving poor people
access to international migration opportunities, and
can policies on migration and education be combined
in a way that gives rise to a ‘virtuous circle’, rather
than so-called ‘brain drain’?
• How can migrants’ remittances to poor countries -
which are currently greater in monetary terms that
international aid flows - be built upon to stimulate a
wider process of development (whilst recognising
that these are private rather than public flows
of capital)?
Second, in relation to the less visible forms of migration
that poor people do participate in:
• How can such forms of migration be facilitated in
such a way that they deliver tangible benefits for
migrants and their families, as well as the wider
population in sending and receiving areas?
• Is it possible to drive down the cost to relatively poor
people of sending relatively small amounts of money,
or to use such remittances to release capital
constraints, for example through stimulating the
microfinance sector?
•What forms of exploitation and abuse do internal,
temporary, seasonal or child migrants face, and how
can these be reduced or eliminated?
Third, in relation to those who migrate to emerging
regional centres in rapidly growing economies:
• Are there lessons that can be learned from European
or North American responses to immigrant
integration and diversity, or are entirely new models
required in other parts of the world?
Immigrant integration and increasing diversity in Europe and the North are significant questions for today’s
societies. However, I would like to focus on three other major challenges that are often ignored in public
debate. All rest on the assumption that migration is a challenge for poor countries too:
The Global Challenge
Is there scopefor relaxationof controls onmigration,particularly wherethis can bedemonstrated tohave beneficialmacro-economiceffects onsending andreceivingcountries?
67Future of Migration
In addition, although it appears that new migration flows
- in terms of origins and destinations - are emerging all
the time, it also seems likely that the major ‘channels’
of international migration will be the same in 2020 as
they are today, with few new major ‘poles of attraction’,
and few new emerging countries of emigration -
beyond the possibility of mass exodus associated with
economic or political collapse in a small number
of countries.
However, perhaps even more guaranteed is that there
will be a greater proportion of the world’s population
living in urban areas, both as a result of urban growth
(an excess of births over deaths in many of the
developing world’s major cities) but also as a result of
continued rural-urban migration. This process of
urbanisation appears to be particularly strong in Africa,
currently the least urbanised continent in the world, but
where the proportion of the population living in urban
areas is expected by the UN to rise from around 35%
in 2000, to around 45% in 2020 and 50% by 2030.
There is of course a degree of uncertainty even in
relation to the points above. For example, the recent
global economic crisis appears to have hit some poor
migrants particularly hard, as they often work in
manufacturing and service industries that are orientated
towards global export markets that have been
significantly affected by the downturn. The Chinese
authorities have estimated, for example, that as many
as 20 million migrant workers may return from urban
to rural areas as a result of the crisis. If such processes
were to turn into a medium-term trend, this could have
a major downward impact both on rates of urban
growth, and potentially on international migration.
However, what is much more uncertain is the way in
which sending and receiving societies might or might
not benefit more from the migration into the future.
For example, the ‘benefits’ of migration are often
indirect and therefore neither clear, nor easy to predict.
Few in the UK would now dispute that migration has
had a significant and positive impact on the range and
quality of food in restaurants across the country. Yet
there are almost certainly wider benefits ranging from
art and culture to entrepreneurship, technology and the
quality of healthcare that are difficult to measure (and
predict) but no less real. Such benefits are not limited
to the UK, or to international migration - for example
the increasing presence of rural migrants in urban
centres can lead to the development of trade links
between rural and urban areas, as well as contributing
to social and cultural transformations.
There also appears to be a growing interest at
international level in the potential benefits of migration
for development, as encompassed in initiatives such as
the ‘Global Forum on Migration and Development’, a
major international initiative to promote good policy
practice in this field. Yet to date the translation of these
initiatives into changed policy at national level is highly
limited, with continued suspicion of migration and
mobility amongst many policy-makers.
Although international migration has increased over the last few decades, it has done so slowly, rising from
just 2% to around 3% of the world’s population over the period from 1970 to 2005. It seems highly probable
that this percentage will continue to rise slowly over the coming decade, or at least not fall, implying that by
2020 there will be more international migrants in the world than there are today.
Options and Possibilities
The major‘channels’ ofinternationalmigration will
be the same in2020 as they
are today.
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
68 Future of Migration
There is some prospect that the development of new
technologies might go some way to addressing the
problems faced by poorer people in deriving benefits
from migration. For example, in the field of money
transfer by migrants, significant advances have been
made in terms of online and mobile-phone based
electronic transfers, sometimes to the benefit of very
poor people. The challenge is to make sure that these
technologies are available to the poor, at low cost, and
functioning in ways that they engender trust that the
hard-earned cash of migrants is safe.
However, in relation to all three challenges identified
above, ‘solutions’ are most likely to arise from a more
mature public and policy debate, which in turn is likely
to rely heavily on the availability of robust research
evidence. Yet there are many areas in which such
evidence is lacking. For example, although the number
of international migrants in the world is now broadly
accepted to be around 200 million people, these are
figures for migrant stocks rather than flows; there is in
contrast no consensus at all on how many people move
across borders on a seasonal or annual basis, let alone
the numbers of people moving within their own
countries. Such data is not easy to obtain either:
borders are long, and often un-policed; few countries
have the kind of residential registration systems that
allow tracking of internal mobility, and in many societies
such systems would either be impractical or meet fierce
political resistance on civil liberties grounds.
Technological advances are already proceeding fast in
the field of migration, particularly in terms of migrant
remittances. There is the prospect too that the mobile
phone in particular can become the source of trusted
information on safe migration - in practice, many
migrants and would-be migrants already use mobile
phones extensively to plan their journeys, and to make
the necessary contacts along the way to enable them
to continue towards their destinations.
Solutions involving more rational public debate based
on better research evidence are perhaps less probable,
but still eminently possible, at least in some contexts.
To take one example, in Bangladesh, a mature public
debate is emerging on the causes and benefits of
migration for the country, and successive governments,
democratic and military, have taken at least some
action, based on emerging research evidence of the
significance of migration for the country’s economy and
society. This has led to some relaxation on the rules for
travel overseas by women, with likely benefits in terms
of reduced exploitation of women who were previously
forced to move illegally if they moved at all. A
combination of research and lobbying by organisations
such as the Refugee and Migratory Movements
Research Unit in Dhaka has also led to the granting of
citizenship to one of Bangladesh’s historic ‘migrant’
groups - Urdu-speaking Biharis who moved to the
country during colonial times or around partition, many
of whom had been confined to camp-like settlements
since 1971. Meanwhile, the country’s most recent
Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper deals in depth with
both internal and international migration, highlighting a
number of areas in which policy change might enhance
the benefits of migration to the poorest sections of
society. These include investigation of labour demand
overseas, improved services to overseas workers, and
attempts to find innovative ways to finance the initial
cost of migration by the poor.
In the field of migration, talk of ‘solutions’ is not straightforward. For example, the issues involved are complex,
politically highly contentious, and research evidence is patchy. Indeed, there are few countries in which there
is a mature public debate about migration, whether this is movement of poor people from rural to urban areas,
or immigration to new and emerging urban centres.
Proposed Path Forward
In the field ofmigration, talk of‘solutions’ is notstraightforward.
69Future of Migration
Yet the potential for global impact here is surely more
limited: out of a total of over 80 PRSPs completed in
nearly 60 countries since 2001, little more than a
handful deal in any depth with the issue of migration
based on robust evidence. Most simply identify
migration - and especially the internal movement of the
poor - as a problem, based on no hard evidence at all.
There is probably no ‘best’ path forward on migration,
nor is a world ‘free of constraints’ realistic. Migration
provides opportunities to some, but also poses
challenges for others, such that the task of dealing with
it is always likely to be beset by the constraints
associated with managing competing interests. For
example, if new migrants arrive in a labour market, they
clearly may compete for jobs with existing workers
(even if in some cases they do not, and in all cases,
they also contribute to demand which stimulates overall
employment). Where such competition does emerge,
it is likely to be felt most keenly by other recently-arrived
migrants, often at the lower end of the labour market.
In this context, I would argue for a more limited goal:
creating the space in which well-informed debate about
the benefits and costs of migration, and appropriate
policy responses, is possible.
We needcompromise
betweenpolarised
positions thatseek to classify
migration as‘good’ or ‘bad’ -
or betweenpositions that
see migrants as‘deserving’ or‘undeserving’.
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
70 Future of Migration
Yet surely a middle ground needs to be found. For
many migrants, movement is an essential means of
securing a livelihood or a better life, but migration is
often also an undesired, and undesirable outcome of
poverty, underdevelopment, environmental degradation
or armed conflict. Indeed, for an individual migrant, the
desire to escape difficult conditions at home, and seize
opportunities elsewhere can easily go hand in hand.
In this context, we need compromise between polarised
positions that seek to classify migration as ‘good’ or
‘bad’ - or between positions that see migrants as
‘deserving’ or ‘undeserving’. That does, however,
require policy-makers to rise above polarised public
debates, to see the phenomenon of migration in a
detached way, based on the best available evidence.
The consequences of taking a more rounded view on
migration are not easy to predict.
Socially, a more open and tolerant attitude towards
migration (whether or not numbers of migrants actually
rise) could be at the cost of increased social tension, if
that process is poorly managed or explained. But
equally, it could almost certainly contribute to improved
social relations, if understanding of the benefits of
migration and diversity can be clearly articulated. This
is as relevant a conclusion for migrant-receiving areas
Ultimately, the biggest problem in finding solutions to the issues and challenges raised by migration is the
polarised nature of the debate. For many people, migration is a symptom of the failure of states or societies
to provide adequate living conditions so that people can stay in their home areas. In contrast, for many others,
migration is a ‘right’ that is limited by the actions of governments and societies that are xenophobic or racist.
Impacts and Implications
in the global ‘South’, such as commercial agricultural
plantations in Côte d’Ivoire or the slums of capital cities,
as it is for economically-advanced societies in Europe
and North America.
Economically, we still do not completely understand the
broader consequences of migration, although there is
growing evidence of the benefits of migration both in
macro-economic terms, as well as for individual sending
and receiving communities.
Finally, technologically, it seems clear that a more open
approach to migration could contribute to the
stimulation of new technologies (such as the ‘skype’
and other VOIP technologies, used intensively by many
families split across countries and continents) as well as
to new uses for existing technologies (such as the
growth of money transfer systems that use mobile
phones and the internet).
In terms of impacts on other issues, migration is
perhaps the archetypal cross-cutting issue, and as
such, it arguably impacts on all of the other topics for
this initiative. Thus: in the energy world, the extraction
of raw materials for energy often provides a stimulus
for inward migration, but equally can lead to the
displacement of populations in affected areas (e.g.
through the building of dams, or conversion of
agricultural land for the production of biofuels); food
insecurity is a classic cause of distress migration; both
too much water (floods) and too little (droughts) can be
associated with quite large migrations and
displacements; the influence of climate change makes
these particularly difficult to predict into the future;
growing urbanisation contributes to one of the major
challenges facing the world in the 21st century - how
to deal with rising urban waste; migration throws into
question established identities, and contributes to the
creation of new, sometimes ‘hybrid’ identities; the use
of new technology by migrants, and to control migrants,
raises significant issues to do with privacy; without
connectivity and transport, migration doesn’t happen;
with migration, connectivity and transport links can be
stimulated and developed; migration is blamed (not
entirely fairly) for decimating the health workforces of
many smaller or poorer nations; in turn, without
migrants, Britain’s NHS and other advanced country
health systems would likely grind to a halt; cities are
growing in the developing world, at least in part due to
migration; migrant remittances outweigh either
international aid, and/or foreign direct investment, in a
significant number of countries and lastly; is migration
a choice? That is a key question.
Is migration achoice? That isa key question.
71Future of Migration
Future of Money
Dave BirchFounder, Digital Money Forum and Director, Consult Hyperion
72
Money as a unit of account is a hot topic as the US
dollar is being questioned as the denomination of the
world’s reserve currency. Robert Zoellick, President of
the World Bank, recently said that the US must “brace
itself” for the USD to be replaced in that role and, for
other reasons, the UN Conference on Trade and
Development has also called for the USD to be
replaced with a new ‘global currency’ and not only as a
unit of account. The question is with what? Should we
adopt the Special Drawing Right that is used by the IMF
or, if stability is a driver, should we not go back to gold
as the price of oil in gold is much more stable than the
price of oil in dollars.
Money as an acceptable means of exchange is already
undergoing change. Money is useless as a medium
unless it is acceptable to both parties in a transaction.
In many countries cash is falling as a proportion of
transactions. In a decade will cash still be there? Why?
Might we eliminate money through ‘turbo barter’? Is
cash replacement realistic and under what
circumstances? Why now? Which technologies have
come together to make this a point in time when the
possibility of a change from cash to an alternative
means of exchange is not only credible but also
increasingly probable?
Money as a store of value is also open to question.
How will people in the future have access to good
stores of value and how will choice impact fiscal
policies? Will we have transactions between non-
monetary stores of value? In some African countries,
people already trade their means of exchange (the local
currency) for a better store of value - mobile phone
minutes. Why not open savings accounts in gold, or oil,
or food? There are many reasons for thinking, as
Edward de Bono once suggested, that an ‘IBM Dollar’
be a better store of value than a USD.
Money as a mechanism for deferred payment is seen
as a prerequisite for society to function. It must support
contracts between parties that include provision for
future payment. So will people and organisations
choose different payment mechanisms? Are there
enough reserve currencies to make choice a reality?
Will we collapse back to bullion, or grain? If I agree to
pay you $1million in a decade, can you continue to use
conventional assumptions to value that offer?
From my perspective, as a technologist, it is the means
of exchange that is most immediately subject to the
pressure of rapid technological change, particularly
since we are at one of those inflexion points that come
along from time to time. The mobile phone is about to
become the most important means of exchange on a
global basis and the first technology with the potential
to replace notes and coins as the means of exchange
for the ‘average’ person.
Money has four basic functions, each of which can be implemented in a different way and so each of which
are available for different types of change. To me it is reasonable to consider these four functions and look at
the global challenges to each of them individually and from there ask about the future.
The Global Challenge
From myperspective, asa technologist, itis the means ofexchange that ismost immediatelysubject to thepressure of rapidtechnologicalchange,particularly sincewe are at one ofthose inflexionpoints that comealong from timeto time.
73Future of Money
New technologies that will be moving into the
mainstream of money, payments and banking over the
next ten years include; connection technologies such as
speech recognition, near field communication, 4G
mobile networks and powered tags; disconnection
technologies such as smart cards, voice authentication,
face recognition and identity cards; and processing
technologies such as the semantic web, contextual
computing, autonomous agents, printed batteries and
virtual worlds. Of these, I see that it will be the
disconnection technologies that will shape the emerging
value network. Therefore small improvements in these
technologies will have a major impact on money.
Unlike the technological view, the social and economic
pressures on money are much harder to determine. If
the average person in the street thinks that their
government is printing money round the clock so that it
will inevitably lose value, then they would naturally want
to hold gold or some other asset they think might hold
its value against inflation. This does not mean using real
gold as a means of exchange but as a store of value. I
could envisage, for example, having a gold account. I
would still draw cash out of the ATM - but only enough
to support transactions. Gold would be the store of
value and, as a consequence reduce the demand for
currency as a store of value. Is digital gold the future?
Will the Islamic market be a driver for electronic gold?
A non-interest bearing 100% gold-backed electronic
currency would be attractive to many in times of
economic uncertainty. While the return to the gold
standard may be impractical or even undesirable, the
idea of a new technology monetising the store of value
that is gold is a different proposition. For the ordinary
person to be able to decide to hold Euros, gold or
mobile phone minutes simply by choosing a different
menu on their phone does provide practical choice.
However, given free choice, would people opt for
dollars over precious metal?
Perhaps people would prefer to use more regional,
local or even personal currencies. The next generation
of money may be more about so called ‘alternative
currency’ rather than a return to the money of the past.
Local currencies have been attracting a lot of attention
and there is history in this space ranging from Local
Exchange Trading Systems, frequently derided as
‘babysitting tokens’, to Time Banks and so on. In
London another such currency has just been launched
- the BrixtonPound. If regional, local or personal
currencies are to disrupt the financial system they need
to include an alternative means of saving and lending,
not merely spending. A combination of P2P (peer-to-
peer) currency and P2P lending could very well deliver
the key elements of new kind of money. One factor
nudging me towards this is the demonstrable collapse
in the trust of traditional banks: Many members of the
public, whether through financial calculation or outrage,
are now prepared to give alternatives a try. In the UK,
one such alternative of note is Zopa, the peer to peer
lending exchange.
Over the next decade, the technology timeline is one of the most predictable components of the Future
Agenda for money. As William Gibson commented in 1999, “the future is already here, it’s just unevenly
distributed.” All of the technologies that will make a difference to any organisation’s business model in 2020
already exist. The right way to get ahead of the curve is not to try and imagine amazing new technologies from
scratch but to simply look at how technologies are moving from the lab into the world and consider their
impact in a reasonable structured way.
Options and Possibilities
Is digital gold thefuture? Will theIslamic marketbe a driver for
electronic gold?
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
74 Future of Money
To make something “cash like” then you have to be able
to use it pretty much everywhere (you need a high POS
density) and you need to be able to make small
transactions in private, without being tracked, traced
and monitored. There are two ways in which the
technological developments of the last two decades
have addressed these key objections and have put us
in a position to be able to take Willem’s ideas and
implement them.
The first is the mobile phone. We are already seeing
the launch of mobile phones that can replace payment
cards (there are 40 million of them in Japan already)
and provide prepaid “e-money” accounts (M-PESA in
Kenya, provided by mobile operators Vodafone and
Safaricom, has over six million users already). But the
strategic impact of mobile phones in the payment space
is yet to come. Yes, mobile phones can be payment
cards and that’s great. But mobile phones can also be
payment terminals. Or to put it another way, you can
use a chip and PIN card to pay, but you can use a
mobile phone to both pay and get paid. Since I live in a
country where, essentially, everyone has a mobile
phone this means that it is absolutely feasible to
eliminate cash altogether. In this coming world, if I want
to pay you a pound, I will do it by text message or
mobile Internet and you will know immediately that you
have the cash.
The second objection is that losing the anonymity of
cash would change the relationship between citizen and
state (and bank) in an undesirable way. I used to think
that this was true, but now I’m not so sure. Thinking
about anonymity again, my experience back in the old
days was that, for different reasons, neither the
consumers, nor the banks, nor the retailers, nor anyone
else actually valued anonymity at all. So, if you put it in
a tick-box, some people will tick it, but that’s because
they haven’t really thought about it. Once they had
thought about it, their interest in anonymity plummeted.
If we are to choose a path forward, let us make it a shared goal to make a substantial reduction in the amount
of cash in circulation: Willem Buiter (Professor of European Political Economy at the London School of
Economics and Political Science and former chief economist of the EBRD) is not the first economist to think
about getting rid of cash. But he may be one of the first to think about getting rid of cash in a technological
era that actually makes it entirely feasible. It wasn’t feasible when Hayek was thinking about it in 1970s, or
when European banks were thinking about in the 1990s, but it is entirely feasible in the 2010s. Why? Well,
there are some key technological developments that make Willem’s vision more than science fiction: in fact,
some might say, make it more likely than not. These developments mean that we can overcome the main
barriers to cashlessness - POS (Point of Sale) density and anonymity - in ways that can deliver more
functionality than Willem might expect.
Proposed Way Forward
The strategicimpact of mobilephones in thepayment space isyet to come.
75Future of Money
If the central problem is the cost of transactions for
poor people, and the central solution is to use mobile
phones to make transactions (including non-fiat
currency transactions) then the key compromise is
straightforward to set out: We must encourage
easy-entry competition for low-value, inter-personal
transactions and allow not only mobile operators but
other newcomers to deliver a service.
Why not take the €500 note as an example? Any
prepaid instrument with a maximum daily transfer of
€500 should be regarded as cash and regulated
globally much as the FSA regulates Electronic Money
Issuers (ELMIs) in the U.K. - but with higher limits on
both balances and annual transfers. In Europe, there
will be an additional chapter in the Payment Services
Directive (PSD) to create a framework for electronic
money institutions (alongside the frameworks for credit
institutions and payment institutions). So perhaps this
could form the basis of reciprocal international
agreement. In other words, anyone should be able to
buy a pre-paid card with €500 loaded on to it and then
do what they like with it; use it on eBay or in Marks &
Spencer; send it to a grandson at University or back to
the old country as a remittance.
Think about it - the immediate benefit to the poor (who
lose some 20% of their annual remittances to charges
or fraud) would surely outweigh any marginal
convenience offered to drug dealers. And if an
international terrorist were to go round Post Offices
buying a pre-paid card in each one and then sending
€100,000 worth of cards to their uncle up the Khyber
Pass, not only would it engender significant effort but
it would also cost them a lot more than sending €500
notes (which the Royal Mail might well lose anyway).
More realistic limits for the Know Your Customer (KYC)
and Anti Money Laundering (AML) protocols and
increasing competition in the provision of mobile
payment services would bring (literally) hundreds of
millions of people into the financial system. This would
deliver a significant net welfare increase and make a
huge difference to the daily lives of some of the
poorest people.
So, if we are to try and choose a path forward, let us
make it a shared goal to make a substantial reduction
in the amount of cash in circulation by adopting
regulatory compromise to open up the space for
solutions and encouraging new thinking, particularly
around mobile phones, to deliver those solutions. In
fact, we might make the goal the substantial
eradication of cash, as previously suggested.
Controversial? Perhaps, but possible, plausible and
potentially probable!
So, my central prediction for the decade is that the mobile phone will be used to transact non-fiat currencies.
Not much of a prediction perhaps because it is already happening. But the impact will be truly transformational
and will, I would argue, primarily benefit the poor.
Impacts and Implications
My centralprediction for the
decade is thatthe mobile phone
will be used totransact non-fiat
currencies.
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
76 Future of Money
If we are to tryand choose apath forward,let us make it ashared goal tomake a substantialreduction in theamount of cashin circulation
77
Future of Transport
Mark PhilipsInterior Design Manager, Jaguar Cars
78
Much large scale transport change takes place over 20
years rather than ten so, given these timescales, in the
next decade we face three major issues; providing
mass mobility to the growing global community in a
sustainable manner; changing the behaviour and
actions of many in the developed world; and making
the right choices to set the scene for a practical a low-
carbon, global transport system after 2020.
• There are few who would say that mobility in the likes
of India and China should be restricted or who would
deny citizens in such countries the same freedom of
movement that the US and Europe have enjoyed.
However most would agree that the route taken in
the 20th century cannot be followed in the 21st.
Implementing the policies and making the large scale
investments required to provide sustainable transport
infrastructures in every country involve both bold
decisions and deep pockets, but, without a major
shift in the next couple of years, the long term
consequences on, for example, carbon emissions will
be dire. Major transport solutions need to be green,
affordable and desirable.
• In terms of the US and European lifestyles that
provide the template for others to follow, we must
make visible and significant steps and soon. This is
not just about shifting away from the SUV, three car
household culture often characterised in the media,
but involves significant changes beyond switching to
smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles. The developed
world, and the US in particular, must embrace public
transport options both within and between cities, and
at the same time proactively regulating for behaviour
changing policies such as congestion charging, road
pricing and speed control. This can be achieved a
much through designing transport that people want
to be part of as by regulation.
• In terms of future choices for the post 2020 world,
we already know the decisions that need to be made:
Whether to being electric, hydrogen or bio-fuel
powered, personal transport has to switch from fossil
fuels and this has to happen sooner rather than later;
low CO2 options for aviation and shipping have to be
found; and an accelerated rollout of integrated mass
transit systems has to occur. But, again, this has to
be achieved in a manner that attracts consumers.
Of all nations, the US faces many of the greatest
obstacles but it also could open the doors to new
solutions. The American transportation system has
been under-funded and is difficult and costly to maintain:
According to the American Society of Civil Engineers it
will cost $1.6 trillion to repair critical infrastructure,
never mind make the investments to accommodate
future demands. While this might sound like gloom, it
should be noted that California, as America’s most
influential state, raises its ambitions, so they become
the benchmark for the US - and this has traditionally
had a catalytic effect on global standards. Over the next
decade, proactive local policies from Sacramento may
well continue to reach globally. Although other nations
are thinking well ahead of the US in transport policy,
we should not ignore the significant influence that key
Federal and State regulations have around the world.
We live in a world at the point of significant change: Around half of us recognise that we need to travel less,
just at the same time as the other half want to travel more. There is little doubt that, without a major technology
shift, those in the developed, world who are used to high levels of personal mobility, cannot all continue to
behave in the same way as they have done in the past. While in the fast-growing emerging economies, with
burgeoning middle classes, many see the desire for individual car ownership as a credible and realistic aim.
We are at a tipping point between the two seemingly opposing drivers of sustainability and aspiration. Our
primary challenge is in balancing these two.
The Global Challenge
Of all nations, theUS faces manyof the greatestobstacles but italso could openthe doors tonew solutions.
79Future of Transport
Although the aviation industry attracts lots of attention,
the real options for change available in the next decade
are relatively limited: Rising demand from both low-
cost and premium passengers keen to fly shows little
sign of abating, airfreight traffic is forecast to double in
the next ten years and both Boeing and Airbus have
healthy future order books. Even if reduced travel
occurs in European and US markets, given the
competition between the three main alliances and the
growth in Asian passenger and freight miles, a net
global increase by 2020 is highly probable. Moreover,
as the average plane is in service for around 30 years,
the cycle time to change the fleet means that more
fuel efficient planes, such as the Airbus 380 and the
Boeing Dreamliner, will take a good while to have
significant impact. Other than the possible introduction
of bio-fuels into the aviation fuel mix, no major
technological change will have impact in the next
decade: While governments and media like to talk up
the contribution of aviation to global warming, it is only
responsible for 2% of carbon emissions and has no
credible alternative energy platform available in the
medium term. As more people desire to fly, despite the
cost, for many in the sector, the next ten years will be
more an opportunity for improved efficiency of the
overall system while continuing to compete for
customers on the experience.
The shipping industry is however a focus for potential
change. Not only does it contribute more than 5% of
global CO2 emissions, but inefficiency has been built
into the system. Over the next few years we can
therefore expect a convergence of existing GPS,
loading and navigation technologies to enable more
efficient routing and speed of transit of the world’s
merchant fleet. However, although retrofit technologies
such as high tech sails are much hyped, again, given
the time to change the fleet, the likelihood of mass
impact in the next decade is limited. Given continuing
economic globalisation, demand for more not less
shipping between sources of raw materials, production
centres and primary markets, will steadily increase.
Urban public transport systems covering bus, rail, tram
and taxi are all areas of government and industry focus:
For example, the French government has recently
announced a €20bn investment in the construction of
the worlds’ largest automated rapid transit line circling
Paris, scheduled for completion by 2020. Delhi has
gained significant praise for switching its taxi fleet to
LPG and Dubai is now promoting its newly opened
urban transit system. As cities around the world seek to
replicate the models of modern mobility efficiency such
as the integrated urban transport systems found in
Munich and Vienna, we can expect further
announcements of similar investments in the cities
which can afford it.
Turning to inter-urban transport, there is little doubt that
China is the now pacesetter for change. Recognising
both the challenge and the benefit in increasing the
speed of travel across the country, China is investing
over $1 trillion in expanding its rail network to
120,000km by 2020 - the second largest public works
program in history. Like Japan, South Korea, France,
Spain and Germany before, China is reshaping its
landscape around train services by investing in a mix of
both very high speed rail (350kph) and high speed rail
(125-150kph) that will be the global benchmark for
mass transit systems: Cargo transport and passenger
transport is being separated, double track artery lines
are being electrified and transport hubs are been built
in 196 cities. The decisions have already been made
and the ambition will be implemented. However, other
In each area of the transport sector, the choices available to us between now and 2020 vary considerably.
Some have little freedom to change and others have the potential for major shifts.
Options and Possibilities
Although theaviation industryattracts lots of
attention, the realoptions for
change availablein the nextdecade are
relatively limited.
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
80 Future of Transport
countries, yet to take such bold steps forward, may not
be able to deliver material change by 2020.
Given the above, by 2020, I see that further significant
change can only really be achieved in the area of
personal mobility. Although ten years is barely two design
cycles in the automotive sector, with the right support
and leadership, we have the opportunity to change the
game in terms of both sustainability and aspiration.
I see that luxurymarket buyersincreasingly want‘better not more’.
81Future of Transport
I see that luxury market buyers increasingly want ‘better
not more’. I believe that this trend will increase as people
seek to buy items of higher quality, greater intellectual
depth and perceived value. We will move away from the
“Bling Bling” culture that has been with us for the last
eight years. The decline of the SUV market is already
heralding a shift in the way car companies as such
are positioning themselves to express a more
environmentally responsible message over just the car’s
performance: The new luxury 5 door vehicles are not
SUVs but “fast backs” like the BMW 5 Series Gran
Turismo, Audi Sportback and Lexus LF-Ch Hybrid
concepts which will have as much design influence in
the US market as they do in Europe and Japan.
Luxury goods buyers, I believe, will want to have items
that are visually more discreet: At the height of the credit
crunch, shoppers on New York’s 5th Avenue were
disguising their designer label purchases in brown bags
- this may not be a short term fad. In other markets, we
are leaving the era of buying disposable IKEA-esque
goods and seeking items that offer longevity and quality
- a future heirloom maybe? This is, in some ways, a
return to the values of previous generations.
An example from outside the transport sector that
supports this is the Slow Food movement which is now
coming of age. Originally established in 1989 as a
reaction to the growth of fast food, Slow Food focuses
more on enjoyment, quality and the effect upon others
- an interesting parallel to the use of transport.
Although for many, perhaps the greatest statement of
one’s personal freedom and, ultimately, individuality is
still the car. For others their buying tastes are changing
and the consumers’ definition of status and how a car
features in their lives is shifting: A recent survey of 18-
24 year olds of their top five most valued possessions
Over the next decade, some predict that upwards of an extra 300 million people will gain access to their own
cars. By contrast in the whole of the past century Ford only produced 90 million vehicles. Some consumers
will seek to make choices based on sustainability issues but most will continue to aspire to have the best
products they can. While the two are in no way independent, as more and more manufacturers join the likes
of Renault and Toyota in announcing all new electric and hybrid ranges for launch in 2012, we, as individuals,
will be attracted to rent, buy or lease the vehicles that not only meet our needs but also say something special:
Because it creates the aspiration by which many other areas judge progress, the luxury market in which Jaguar
plays a key role will continue to be a primary source of influence on consumer choice across the sector.
Proposed Way Forward
showed cars to be very low or non existent as a priority
for this influential community. Members of this group
will one day be influencing how car companies cater for
their needs, tastes and aspirations.
I believe, society will react to the presentation of a
number of influences in car design - from increased
globalisation and greater international collaboration
between manufacturers, government policy and climate
change regulation through to the shift in the balance of
wealth and the cultural influence of growing eastern
markets. As globalisation continues, national identity
and ultimate individuality will increase as a key factor in
design differentiation. Well recognised in such brands
as Citroen which bring French values to the fore, may
well be joined by new brands reflecting Chinese and
Indian values. Indeed, as the balance of wealth changes
between the East and West, we can expect both new
global marques to emerge as well as new market
niches that encourage more vehicles to be more clearly
Asian in values. The traditional cyclical product needs of
the US will be increasingly challenged by new luxury
car markets: I will be interested to see how the success
and wealth growth in such countries as Russia and
India will impact the tastes and trends in the west.
While we can clearly see the trajectory of more efficient
vehicles, many of which may be smaller that today’s,
we can also see the role of luxury setting the ambition
and attracting consumers across all platforms: Although
traditionally associated with large four door vehicles, it
will be interesting to see if any luxury marques will also
migrate to smaller platforms.
We can clearlysee the trajectoryof more efficientvehicles, manyof which may
be smaller thattoday’s.
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
82 Future of Transport
With an aging population and the affordability of
personal transport as certain mega trends, I can see a
huge increase in the introduction of new traffic control
systems including congestion charging and even a
pricing mechanism based upon the size of your vehicle
as well as the power of your car. Although the concept
of intelligent highways has been much discussed over
the years, the reality has taken a long time to become
main-stream. With more embedded intelligence such
as collision avoidance already available in some high
end cars, over the next decade we can see smart
mobility coming into place: Through combinations of
the GPS and mobile tracking of vehicles that are in
some markets today together with the need for wireless
traffic management systems in overcrowded mega-
cities, smart cars and smart networks will converge to
deliver the first global phase of smart mobility. I believe
that the consumer’s reaction to the effect on their
freedom in such a world could prove pivotal to the
development of these systems. After all, the car is
possibly the most powerful expression of freedom and
for a consumer product it offers the greatest possible
level of user interaction whilst delivering great personal
convenience and enjoyment. Design trends tend to last
between 5 and 10 years; for designers, the ends of
these trends cycles provide exciting opportunities for
change as much as they provide a challenge for
strategists to guide investments to capitalise on
the opportunities.
I believe that the next few years will be the time when
new products are launched that successfully balances
sustainability and aspiration. Whether in small urban
commuter vehicles or more efficient larger cars,
consumer choice will continue to play a major role:
Matching together sustainability and aspiration
provides equal opportunity across the whole of the
transport system.
I see multiple implications going forward. Foremost, driven by the inevitable rise in personal mobility, it is clear
that we will see more small cars. These will not only be new, mass access, low-cost vehicles such as Tata’s
Nano, but could also include some luxury marques: Aston Martin are reported to be currently developing a
concept based on the Toyota IQ ‘commuter car’ named Cygnet. However, with advancing fuel and alternative
power technology I am confident that luxury cars will still be able to offer a travel experience to the same
standards as currently enjoyed by consumers - except that this will increasingly need to be “guilt free”. This
is a challenge that car manufacturers must overcome in order to continue to offer true luxury which has always
been a measure of spaciousness, refinement and exclusivity. For me, it will be interesting to see if any luxury
car companies attempt to apply their brand values to the urban commuter segment and similar historically
“no-go” segments. If they do, will they be able to do so successfully with integrity and authenticity?
Impacts and Implications
Design trendstend to lastbetween 5 and10 years; fordesigners, theends of thesetrends cyclesprovide excitingopportunitiesfor change.
83Future of Transport
Future of Waste
Professor Ian WilliamsDirector of Education and Deputy Head of the School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton
84
Waste results in many problems. It smells bad, looks
bad and attracts vermin; it releases harmful chemicals
into the soil and water when dumped and into the air
when burned; around 4% of our GHG emissions are
currently from waste decomposition; and no one has
really yet come up with a solution for how to dispose of
some of the most toxic nuclear and industrial waste in
a sustainable manner.
On average in Europe, each of us produces over 500kg
of domestic waste each year. On top of this we
generate huge quantities of construction debris,
industrial effluent, mine tailings, sewage residue and
agricultural waste. Rich countries spend some $120
billion a year disposing of their municipal waste alone
and another $150 billion on industrial waste.
In the next decade, can we develop a practical and
achievable global strategy for sustainable resource use?
Making waste prevention the norm in a global society
dominated by consumerism will demand the creation of
a zero waste society - but can we actually achieve zero
landfill and move towards this goal? It will mean
simultaneously developing the appropriate
infrastructure, service provision and approaches to
facilitate behaviour change in multiple particular
environments. It will also require us to genuinely
decouple economic growth and waste generation on a
global scale.
Enabling the appropriate treatment of hazardous
wastes (including toxic, radioactive, clinical and
biohazard materials), particularly close to or in densely
populated, urban areas is a major issue. In particular,
we will need to address the unethical shipping of
hazardous wastes to developing countries and the
subsequent adverse health effects suffered by those
who handle and treat these wastes.
As economic growth has traditionally led to more waste,
to prevent the future doubling in global waste predicted
by some, we need to understand what are the
projected increases in waste volumes in emerging
nations? What will be the associated attitudes towards
waste management and what infrastructure and service
provision needs to be put in place and where? We must
devise sustainable and practical approaches to deal
with the (inevitable) increasing volumes of waste from
‘emerging nations’, their attitudes towards and ability
to manage their waste responsibly.
Last, but certainly not least, we need to change all
individual behaviours and attitudes and get consumers
and organisations to buy products made from recycled
materials and/or sustainable sources: Easier in some
countries than in others.
Global waste production is predicted by some to double over the next twenty years. Much of this will be due
to increased urbanisation and greater waste generation per capita as emerging economies grow. While some
regions are aiming at creating zero waste ecosystems, others are yet to truly recognise the scale of the
challenge we face.
The Global Challenge
Global wasteproduction ispredicted bysome to doubleover the nexttwenty years.Much of thiswill be due toincreasedurbanisation andgreater wastegenerationper capita asemergingeconomies grow.
85Future of Waste
What is less certain are a number of political,
environmental, global economic and technological
factors. Political motivation and resource policy directions
are very unpredictable, especially after a downturn where
the economics of waste recycling have become less
viable than before. In addition, we don’t yet understand
the impacts that global warming will have on
governmental decisions that impact waste management
- what is the connection between waste generation /
treatment and climate change? Can some waste
materials be used to generate sustainable energy in
order to address future energy needs? The impact and
implications of increased resource use on society, the
economy and the environment are likely to be global and
significant but the details are not yet fully clear. Although
some point to examples such as Switzerland where there
are currently high levels of waste recycling occurring due
to local conditions, it is not certain that this will be
sustained. At the same time, whether, or to what extent,
waste quantities continue to rise in the developed world
is not certain. Also, we don’t yet know how rapid will be
the uptake of sustainable and smart technologies, such
as nano-materials, which will in theory result in less
waste. Despite an increase in hazard, high use of rare
metals in IT hardware such as phones and PCs will
increase but waste quantities may reduce.
We have the options of accelerating the development of
Zero Waste concepts, creating better sustainable
technologies, and facilitating better geographical
spread of these technologies, but this needs
investment. This is investment in appropriate
infrastructures, service provision and new approaches
to facilitate behaviour change in particular
environments. We also have the option of creating new
accredited global standards for management, treatment
and disposal of waste, but this needs cooperation
between companies and countries. There are many
things we could do to fundamentally change direction
and create less waste, but some question what we will
actually do.
Over the next decade, the increasing global population and the increasing economic growth of many emerging
nations will create more waste. As well as putting a huge strain on resources such as fresh water and energy,
another billion or so people added to the planet in the next ten years will certainly demand more and so create
more waste. This will include more food and energy waste; more household waste; increased electronic
wastes facilitated by lower prices, new products and more choice; and more hazardous waste from industry
generally and an increase in nuclear energy specifically. To try and counteract this we will see less packaging
waste due to regulation and more biodegradable packaging; more pressure to reduce the environmental
impacts from waste; increased complexity in the waste stream and an increase in concerns regarding the
health effects of waste treatment. These are all visible trends today that will continue going forward.
Options and Possibilities
We have theoptions of
accelerating thedevelopment of
Zero Wasteconcepts,
creating bettersustainable
technologies, andfacilitating better
geographicalspread of these
technologies, butthis needsinvestment.
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
86 Future of Waste
First off is the development of practical integrated
sustainable waste management solutions that are
clearly aimed at the creation of a zero waste society.
This will mean the simultaneous development of the
infrastructure, service provision and behavior change to
enable the core elements to be aligned. This won’t be
politically attractive but will be necessary. Within all
environments we need to develop truly sustainable
waste practices, policies and strategies. This will mean
moving waste management in line with a reduced
carbon economy; developing appropriate and low
environmental impact collection systems for small re-
useable/recyclable items (WEEE); and adherence to
approaches that satisfy regional self-sufficiency,
proximity principle, sustainability appraisals, etc. This
includes sustainable management of minerals and
aggregates; prevention of food waste, and facilitating
resource recovery from wastes, as well as addressing
imminent resource depletion of key materials such as
the rare metals used in IT hardware.
Second is the development of mass low-cost
sustainable technologies for waste treatment /
transformation and pollution prevention on a global
scale. We need to develop technologies and systems
for the global prevention of pollution from the handling
and treatment of wastes, especially waste waters and
industrial effluents. This will require concepts such as
green chemistry and engineering to become
mainstream rather than niche using appropriate
incentives and / or legislation. But can we develop
mass low cost sustainable technologies on a global
scale? This will require substantial knowledge transfer.
Better technologies offer money-making opportunities
and, in themselves, require less change to current
practice than the infrastructure and behavior pathway.
However, although zero waste strategies will be a
popular concept, many in business and industry will
resist it just as unleaded petrol was initially rejected.
Therefore the technology route should not be backed in
isolation - we need the technologies and the integrated
waste management solutions together.
While these are the two main issues, there are also a
number of additional actions that will have a quick,
short-term impact. These include increased
enforcement, education and awareness for
organisations and businesses in how to manage their
waste, especially from those not conflicted by
commercial gain; expansion of alternate weekly
collection systems in developed countries (e.g.
recyclables weekly, residuals fortnightly); further
legislation and / or economic disincentives on excessive
packaging; and higher involvement of both big business
and the third sector in re-use and recycling. We also
need to accelerate the willingness of individuals and
organizations to buy products made from recycled
materials and / or sustainable sources.
By 2020, I believe that we can make a significant impact on the waste problem by taking some clear steps.
And I would aim high: we need major changes.
Proposed Way Forward
Can we developmass low costsustainabletechnologies ona global scale?
87Future of Waste
• Economically, increased costs are inevitable:
Changes in feedstock for manufacturing, for
example, will probably increase costs initially until the
market adjusts and the use of recycled materials
becomes the norm. However given the long-term
impacts of not taking this route, most forward
thinking organisations should see the benefit and the
return that will be achieved on the necessary
investments.
• Socially, both to enable a zero waste pathway and as
a result of it, there will be significantly greater public
awareness / knowledge of both waste management
issues and also of the adverse health / environmental
consequences of poor environmental management.
However without a fundamental, behaviour change
towards a more environmentally sustainable way of
life, any economic investments stand less chance of
having impact.
• Technologically, we will see an increased use of
“smart products” to track, monitor and manage
waste, as well as new nanotechnologies and low
carbon technologies that create less waste.
Increased investment, to ensure all that waste
streams can be processed, will also eventually drive
a move towards mass low cost sustainable
technologies.
Until recently most people in the waste industry had
assumed that it was impossible to reduce the amount
being produced and were concentrating on better use.
But lately that assumption has been challenged. For
one thing, the pace at which the rich world churns out
rubbish has been slowing. Between 1980 and 2000
the amount of waste produced by the OECD countries
increased by an average of 2.5% a year. Between
2000 and 2005 the average growth rate slowed to
0.9%. That was just ahead of the rate of population
growth, but well behind the rate of economic growth.
The OECD describes this as “a rather strong relative
decoupling of municipal waste generation from
economic growth”
Reducing the amount of waste being produced makes
a great deal of sense. Some are trying to persuade
consumers to throw away less. One tactic is to make
households pay by volume for the rubbish they
generate, rather than through a flat fee or through local
taxes. Many places in Europe, America and Asia have
adopted “pay-as-you-throw” schemes.
Whether through such changes in consumer
behaviour, increased financial investment or the
development of new technology and policy, the world
is in desperate need of a shift towards the zero waste
society. Such a shift will not only benefit us by
addressing the growing waste challenge, but will also
have a positive impact on how we potentially generate
our energy, how we grow and use our food and how
we manage our water supplies.
There will be several direct consequences from seeking a credible move towards the zero waste society:
Impacts and Implications
The pace atwhich the richworld churns
out rubbish hasbeen slowing.
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
88 Future of Waste
The world is indesperate needof a shift towardsthe zero wastesociety.
89
Future of Water
Professor Stewart BurnStream Leader of Infrastructure Technologies, CSIRO
90
Water consumption varies enormously across countries
and regions and is similar to patterns in energy
consumption. No surprise then that water and energy
share some of the same drivers and challenges. For
example, water follows a similar trajectory as energy in
that its use increases relative to GDP growth. Today,
average annual water withdrawals for urban and
agricultural use in the US are running at around 1.7m
litres per person: In China the numbers are less that a
third of this. As the populations and GDP of the
emerging economies continue to grow, overall demand
for freshwater will exceed supply by more than 50% by
2025 and so the number of people living in water
stressed regions will increase. Without decisive action
the imbalance between availability and demand will
continue to escalate.
In a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario where average
households’ income increases, in many countries, so
does their direct domestic water consumption. In others
experiencing water shortages, demand management
has controlled this growth. Equally important is the
indirect consequence of a changing lifestyle: As diets in
developing countries change from rice to meat so the
demand for water rises as it takes more water to
produce meat than it does to grow rice. Another indirect
impact relates to ‘virtual water flows’. These are a result
of exporting goods (both agricultural as well as
consumer products) that have been produced with the
use of water from a local source. As global trade
increases, this will result in further reduction in water
availability especially in countries like China, where
water consumption is already on the rise and sources of
water are on the decline. This challenge is compounded
when you recognise that population growth is primarily
occurring in regions where water usage per capita is
still relatively low and so has the potential to increase
dramatically. This trend of increased water consumption
is adding major strains in key areas of the planet over
the next decade. While today much of India, China, the
Middle East, Australia, Africa, the US and southern
Europe are already water stressed, by 2020 significant
areas of Northern Europe and South America will be
added to the list.
One major concern for the UN is how the increasing
scarcity of water will play out at national levels. Although
the likes of Singapore and Australia have well-
developed National Water Strategies, other countries
are recognising the higher chances of conflict as
different economies seek to secure resources. Some
believe that in the future we will again fight wars over
water not oil, and if you look carefully at what is going
on in Israel, Egypt and areas of the Indochinese
borders, the reality of this is all to evident.
Unlike most of the resources we consume such as oil, rice and steel, there is no alternative for water - it is
the only natural resource with no substitute. Today over 6 billion people share the same volume of water that
1.6 billion did a hundred years ago. Although two thirds of the earth’s surface is water, only 3% per cent of
this is fresh water and, if you deduct the majority share that is locked up in the polar ice-caps and other
glaciers, we only actually have access to around 0.5%.
The Global Challenge
Today over 6bnpeople share thesame volume ofwater that 1.6bndid a hundredyears ago.
91Future of Water
Living in Australia, I see that a country at the forefront
of managing and responding to water scarcity is facing
a number of major urban water systems challenges: A
projected 40 percent population growth over the next
quarter century will increase demand for water well
beyond the capacity of existing supplies. This as well as
the increase wastewater flows and storm-water runoff
will present a significant number of urban water
problems that will need scientific solutions. The current
urban infrastructure valued in excess of $94 billion was
mainly constructed during the 1960s and faces
significant deterioration. Management of the annual
revenue of $9 billion and capital investment of $4.5
billion provides significant opportunities for major
financial savings from small increments in efficiency.
These issues are not unique to Australia and either
already are, or soon will be, relevant in other regions
across the world.
Although most of the challenges we face will be
common across various regions, they will vary at a
country level, as will the solutions to address them. We
therefore need to understand the total water cycle
system that will account for alternative water and land
management options, including addressing changes to
flow, nutrient and sediment regimes; energy use;
greenhouse gas emissions; and the impacts on rivers,
aquifers and estuaries.
Recent droughts, such as the one in Australia, highlight
the vulnerability of existing urban water supply systems.
Alternative investment in desalination and other potable
and non-potable water supplies and their linkages into
regional water grids may potentially cause issues with
respect to water quality and public health if not properly
managed. In a few countries such as the UAE and
Singapore where desalination is economically or
politically viable, we are starting to see alternative
technical solutions for freshwater supply, but the mass
global application of new breakthroughs is more than
20 years away.
Global drivers to reduce the carbon footprint will
increase the cost of energy, compounding the
economic and emissions risks associated with the
adoption of energy-intensive manufactured water
supplies and wastewater treatment. This driver will also
present opportunities for recovery of water, energy and
nutrients from urban water systems.
In addition we must recognize the impact of extreme
events on the complete water cycle, including water
availability, use, resilience, infrastructure performance,
etc. Potential changes in climate variability will further
compound these issues by causing increased
uncertainty in supply and engineering issues associated
with bushfires, flooding and infrastructure failure.
Whether or not you believe the different projections of
how temperature rises will impact in different parts of
the world, the high probability of more variable weather
conditions and hence water availability will certainly add
more complexity.
With the advent of new water strategies, water quality
and treatment will be more critical to maintain our
lifestyle. New risks are emerging (e.g. endocrine
disrupting chemicals, N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA))
that need solutions to be developed to ensure the purity
of our potable water supplies. With an ageing asset
base in many countries, the integration of new supplies
from alternative sources and demand management
Options for countries with weak economies and poor access to resources are limited and so require different
strategies going forward. Access to water here is a primary health need: Sanitation is considered a key global
issue and is a millennium goal in itself, but one in danger of not being achieved if new solutions for sustainable
water supply are not available. This is not just a problem in places like Africa but in Eastern Europe as well.
Options and Possibilities
Sanitation isconsidered a keyglobal issue andis a millennium
goal in itself, butone in danger of
not beingachieved if new
solutions forsustainable water
supply are notavailable.
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
92 Future of Water
strategies requires us to manage changing flows and
demand profiles in water and wastewater networks.
Blended water sources will influence water quality in
water distribution networks, and higher contaminant
concentrations in sewer systems and treatment plants
will require the development of new management
strategies. The effects of these changes on exiting
assets are largely unknown at present.
We need toembrace theconcept ofthe ‘watersensitive city’.
93Future of Water
Emerging thinking about the evolution of large cities
demands the revisiting of the fundamental role of water
system design in sustainable city development. We need
to embrace the concept of the ‘water sensitive city’. In
this context, the development of suitable decision-
making methods, as well as planning and management
processes, should be based on sustainability concepts.
This drive for improved water management has led
companies such as GE and Siemens as well as
newcomers like IBM to focus on innovating new
businesses around water. Similar to ‘clean energy’
startups in the past decade, water is now also attracting
the attention of investors and entrepreneurs from other
areas to fund and found new companies. It is expected
that the penetration of the “business world” in to water
management will add a different perspective to how
water services are provided compared with the
traditional local government view.
Maximizing recycling of water from local wastewater and
storm-water sources in the context of a water sensitive
city will require the development of efficient and reliable
treatment options for environmental protection and
public health. In addition we need options for energy and
nutrient recovery during water and wastewater
treatment, thus transferring waste streams from a
disposal problem to a source of wealth. Examples of this
can be found in the renewed interest in harvesting algae
for the production of bio-fuels and in the development of
microbial fuel cells: Clean water meets clean energy.
Furthermore, containing leakage rates to acceptable
levels requires continual ‘active’ leakage detection that
is expensive, labour intensive and slow to deliver: The
ability to automate leakage detection could provide a
For the majority of us, the options focused on managing our existing water supply are the only ones really on
the table for the next decade. Breakthroughs in desalination and point of use purification are still some way off.
Developments in membrane technology that will realize significant changes are pushing in many different
directions, for example companies such as “Aquaporin” are seeking to leverage learning from white biotech
principles: Membranes mimicking specific natural processes could be one breakthrough that makes
desalination viable across more geographies than is the case today. In addition, developments in membrane
distillation could significantly reduce the energy costs associated with desalination. However, these
developments are many years away. Therefore, considering the challenges ahead, three key elements need to
be viewed together if we are to address them successfully: Sensible policies; (technology) solutions; and
lifestyle/behavior changes.
Proposed way forward
step change in water loss control. Australia already uses
close to world’s best practice in minimizing leakage from
distribution networks and utilities in the UK, France and
the US are now focused on similar aims. The gains to
be achieved are clear - the UK looses about 3.3bn litres
of clean water every day.
In a scenario of ageing infrastructure and growing cities,
we need to develop new strategies for water, wastewater
and storm-water systems. These must accommodate
the inevitable population growth and increase resilience
to climate change. At the same time, they should provide
sufficient flexibility to adopt a mix of centralized and
decentralized components where most appropriate to
meet both environmental and stakeholders’ needs.
It is also essential that we develop real-time
management, operational and control systems which will
greatly manage risk and increase public confidence in
the increasingly complex water networks. This will
require the understanding of system condition and
performance, detection of impending system
deterioration and failure via networked sensors, and
accurate prediction and detection of significant ‘events’.
Lastly, planning is needed for the integration of new
water sources and treatment processes into existing
water supply and wastewater networks. In the context of
an ageing asset base, we also require the development
of optimal management techniques for new water
supply grids.
Changes inbehaviour will
require measuringour water
consumptionbefore we can
manage it.
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
94 Future of Water
In urban environments water scarcity might force us to
reconsider certain lifestyles and at the same time open
up opportunities for innovation in areas such as water
capture, treatment, conservation and efficiency.
Changes in behavior will require measuring our water
consumption before we can manage it and solutions
such as smart metering will find their way into our
homes. The questions are at what level and how
granular will we require this to happen and who will
manage the change?
Agriculture accounts for most of our water
consumption and, with developments in biotechnology,
by 2020 new crops will be introduced that are more
efficient in their water use as will new ways to grow
them. Concepts including vertical farming might find
their way into, or close to, urban environments if there
is a real benefit both in terms of water recycling and
lower energy consumption.
The water debate has accelerated over the past 18 months and is now considered by several governments
as the single greatest challenge we face. Since the issue is so intertwined with many other topics (energy,
food, health), in fact with pretty much anything we do, whether in policy, technology implementation or change
in life-style, it will have an impact on not only our lives, but the lives of generations to come. We must therefore
“get it right”.
Impacts and Implications
Finally, businesses will soon learn more about
embedded energy and have a more mature
understanding of how to measure this in their products.
Water will likely follow the same path - but this might be
introduced faster as a result of the prior experience with
CO2. Success depends on common ways to measure
water footprints supported by clear and simple
messages to the public. Governments will undoubtedly
play a role in this, and may follow Australia’s and other
countries’ lead in developing national water strategies
as well as developing capabilities to secure a
sustainable water supply that meets demand.
Governmentsmay followAustralia’s andother countries’lead in developingnational waterstrategies.
95Future of Water
Future of Work
Chris MeyerCEO, Monitor Networks
96
Geographic and Economic Dislocation: Networks
have reduced or eliminated barriers to entry to national
labor markets for many categories of work. This is
particularly evident in areas such as IT (through
outsourcing), engineering (e.g. Innocentive tapping
global talent pools), and medicine (e.g. tele-radiology).
As off-shoring increases, it puts pressure on wages
in the rich countries, and skills rise in nations with
lower per capita income. And, as income increases in
emerging markets such as India, China, and Brazil,
growth in demand for skilled services will occur
disproportionately outside the developed world.
Together, these two effects lead to income stagnation
in the rich countries and rapid wage and employment
growth in emerging economies. Looking ahead, these
all point to equalization of purchasing power incomes,
segment by segment. Eventually this may inhibit
globalization through backlash against growing
displacement, increasing the pressure for barriers to
trade, and could put multinational corporations at odds
with their home governments.
Automation: Farming once occupied 60% of the U.S.
workforce; now the number is 3%; manufacturing in
the U.S. now occupies about 15 million people -fewer
than 10% of the workforce; and this number will
continue to fall by 1.5 million per year through to
2016. As networks and decision-making algorithms
become more powerful, we can predict that services
jobs will be displaced next. Although many offer ideas,
it is difficult to identify exactly what will replace them.
Education: Life spans and careers continue to grow
longer as the half-life of knowledge continues to shrink.
A decreasing proportion of value will be added by
repetitive work: physical machines will become more
self-aware and adaptive, requiring less supervision;
more importantly, information technology will eliminate
services and middle management labor. Since the
growth in ‘value added’ will be through innovation and
creation, a major challenge will be to ensure that
education (both early and continuing) will support the
development of a “creative class” of all ages, in the
same the way that public high school taught people to
work in large enterprises organized around the division
of labor. Since the educational institutions in the rich
world have proven very resistant to change, it is likely
that innovations in primary and secondary education will
come from emerging economies and, in university and
ongoing education, from the business sector and self-
organized networks.
Collaboration: Web 2.0 is teaching organizations about
the power of collective work product, leading to
“Enterprise 2.0,” an organizational form with
porous boundaries, shared responsibilities, greater
transparency, and fewer mandatory rules and practices.
In part, these organizations will likely help answer the
education question, as jobs become more diverse and
stimulating and the habit of looking outside one’s
organization for answers becomes prevalent; the
challenge will be to discover how management will take
place in these adaptive enterprises.
Not since the Industrial Revolution, when work migrated from fields to factories, from villages to company
towns and cities, and from families to corporations, have the context, form, and nature of work been in such
flux. Organizations now question how to make the best use of their people resource and educational
institutions seek to predict what skills will be required for the next generation. Individuals increasingly think in
terms of work not balanced with other priorities, but integrated into their lives. I see that the future of work is
influenced by four unstoppable trends each of which will have significant impact. Taken collectively they
suggest the need for a fundamental rethinking of management, the way we work and what we work on:
The Global Challenge
As incomeincreases in India,China, Brazil,and elsewhere,growth in demandfor skilledservices will occurdisproportionatelyin these emergingeconomies.
97Future of Work
These four evident and ineluctable trends will impact us
all in different ways and the implications for how our
individual work lives are multiple and varied.Will the openinnovation
movement evolveto a point whereknow-how andcapability rather
than pure IP inthetraditional senseis the currency?
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
98 Future of Work
What will global capitalism learn about work from the
emerging economies? For example: Will copyright and
patent law be the framework for intellectual property (IP)
in the emerging economies?What is the future of full-time
employment? (In India only 7% of the labor force has
formal jobs.) And, how can incentive systems fairly
measure, motivate and reward collaborative work?
Reverse Imperialism? How strongly will the rich economies
resist globalization if the export of high-paying jobs
becomes more of an issue than the import of inexpensive
goods and services? As consumer and corporate benefits
have acted as a catalyst, the off-shoring trend of recent
years has served both the developed and the developing
countries well, but will that continue for much longer?
IP rights in an information economy? IT has reduced the
marginal cost of IP to essentially zero. Collaboration in the
human genome project and many other bioscience
projects (the sequencing of the SARS virus, for example)
is demonstrating the power of open access to new
information. So, how will incentives for creative work
change to recognize these two powerful economic shifts?
Will the open innovation movement evolve to a point where
know-how and capability rather than pure IP in the
traditional sense is the currency? If so, how will
organizations monetize collaboration?
The context in which these issues will unfold will be
radically, but predictably, different from the past. I
believe the most important is the locus of growth.
Today, there are over six billion people on the planet,
about one billion of them in rich countries. In 2050,
there will be nine billion people - yet still only one billion
in current rich countries. E growth will be centered in
the emerging economies, where the middle classes are
growing rapidly in both number and consumption per
capita. The requirements in the developing world for
basic products and services - food, health care,
housing - will be the world’s largest growth opportunity.
Global companies will be seeking to engage these next
billions not only as consumers, but as human
resources. They will be inhibited, however, to the
degree they bring with them business models and
practices from the rich world.
Technology innovation will clearly continue to change
the business environment: Software will continue to
erode white collar and professional work. It has already
de-skilled many professions - spreadsheets make
everyone a financial analyst, i-Phone-based software
can now make everyone a solar panel installer. And
robots being developed in Japan help take care of the
aged: Automated people-care will be big business.. In
Each of the four identified trends is significant, and they are neither mutually exclusive nor exhaustive. When
considered together, they raise many questions, and suggest issues to monitor as the next decade unfolds.
Three of the most pertinent are:
Options and Possibilities
one recent study, half an hour with Paro, a robot
resembling a fur seal, improved the brain function of
Alzheimer’s patients more than an hour of music
therapy. Innovations in preventative healthcare will
reduce the very high projections of growth in this
industry. Next, workflow automation and smart
infrastructure will assume much of the surveillance
and coordination work done to keep supply
chains, transportation systems, utilities, and security
systems functioning.
The technological advancement pattern of the Industrial
Revolution will write its next chapter with information
technology. Once again, progress will reduce manual
labour, save time and increase wellbeing, but will also
reduce traditional roles and limit opportunity for some.
Education will beindustrialized -broken intosmall, repeatabletasks andthus increasinglydeskilled.
99Future of Work
Digital Natives in different countries will work together
more effectively than the connected and the
unconnected within a single country. Digital Natives
may find new protocols arising from social networking
behavior, and tele-presence technologies will improve in
cost and performance. It’s possible that global
collaboration could become much more effective
through the development of a range new IT solutions -
as it has through email. Cisco, Google, Infosys,
Microsoft, IBM and the like are all placing big bets in
these areas.
In the next decade, I also foresee a revolution in our
approach to education. In Singapore, teachers have
been sharing and improving one another’s lesson plans
for a decade. In India, “para-teachers” are being trained
to teach focused elements of the curriculum under the
supervision of senior teachers, one teacher for ten
para-teachers; what is more, the para-teachers are
trained using on-line tools and experiences. In addition
both schools and corporations worldwide are
experimenting with simulations and games as training
tools. In the US, MIT has put much of its syllabus on-
line and home schooling is growing more popular, and
home schoolers are sharing materials and resources.
None of these practices amount to an important major
global trend yet, but they have the potential to disrupt
the way education, training, and feedback and
evaluation are done. Education will be industrialized -
broken into small, repeatable tasks and thus
increasingly deskilled. It will also become
“informationalized” - benefiting from training tools that
are owned and improved by their “Web 2.0” user
communities. Success could address both the “life-long
learning” challenge in the rich world and the need to
rapidly educate tens of millions of people in the
emerging economies.
Industrial technology was born in the UK and grew up in the US. Information technology was born in the US,
and is growing up in the emerging economies. The US will fall behind for a period, while it learns to adopt
the approaches developed elsewhere. What are these? Looking globally I see four pathways that will influence
work by 2020.
The Way Ahead
As well as these pathways I can imagine two more
speculative shifts will, both enabled by advances in
collaboration technologies.
The first one of these concerns the development of
North-South vs. East-West trade routes. As
development accelerates in the southern hemisphere
and communications and collaboration technologies
improve, the attraction of doing business in the same
time zone will become powerful. No longer will 24/7
be the only way to link between the centers of
resource: Europe will increasingly work with African
people resource pools, and the North - South America
working dynamic will grow.
The second shift that I see having increasing impact
concerns individuals’ predispositions to work together.
Human beings are biologically tribal - consequently
some amount of face-to-face meeting is required for
collaboration among people who don’t know one
another. But time zones are inescapable - global
cooperation requires that most communication be
asynchronous. And language barriers, though lower
than ever before, persist. As in the North-South
dimension outlined above, these forces could lead to
increased in-country partnerships. As the outsourcing
trend is mitigated by rising costs of employment in the
emerging economies, we may expect to see an
increasing shift from off-shoring to on-shoring of jobs
in which ongoing relationships are important. This will
not decrease, however, the development of global
supply chains and the tapping of pools of capital -
financial and human - wherever they exist.
If I had to putmoney on it I
would suggest theindustrialization ofinformation workis certain, and willaffect pretty muchevery business.
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org
100 Future of Work
Were I in charge and free from all constraints I would
announce a plan for eliminating intellectual property
rights over the next 25 years. I would require corporate
boards to have some form of representation of each
stakeholder. I would develop performance measures
that reflect performance in non-financial dimensions.
Perhaps most importantly I would fund a global effort
on the scale of the Apollo Program to share progress
in education globally. And, in the United States, I would
institute a two-year requirement for national service with
one year spent outside the country.
Compromises have to be made so I suggest, with an
own-country perspective, at least three articles of faith
in US business should be re-examined: The focus on
individuals as the source of organization performance;
the primacy of shareholders over other stakeholders;
and the value of competition as currently practiced in
assuring efficient resource allocation.
Pragmatically, if all the trends discussed above
go forward, it is possible that there will be a
bifurcation of business systems - a world of utilities
If I had to put money on it I would suggest the industrialization of information work is certain, and will affect
pretty much every business. A revolution in education is less probable, but this would affect the most people
globally, make a difference to their entire lives, affect nations politically and economically, and represent a
force for equalizing income around the world.
Impact and Implications
I would fund aglobal effort onthe scale of theApollo Programto share progressin educationglobally.
101Future of Work
(telecommunications, supply chains, manufacturing and
natural resources), patterned on the capital-intensive
industrial economy, in which business will be a zero-
sum game, a fight for market share and dominance;
and a world of experiences (software, media,
hospitality), based on positive-sum collaboration and
open sourcing. But beware: these two worlds may
have difficulty dealing with each other because of their
fundamental differences around trust and value.
102
Biographies 103
Authenticity - Diane Coyle OBE
Diane is founder of consultancy firm Enlightenment Economics, a member of the BBC Trust and a Visiting Professor at the
Institute for Political and Economic Governance, University of Manchester. Her latest book is called ‘The Soulful Science’ and is
about what economists really do and why it matters. The book surveys key developments in economics during the past 20 years,
advances which have revolutionised economists' ability to analyse society and improve policies. Her previous bestseller was ‘Sex,
Drugs and Economic’ which takes a fun look at the application of economics to all sorts of subjects. Earlier books including
'Paradoxes of Prosperity' and 'The Weightless World' address the economic and social impacts of new technologies.
Choice - Professor José Luis Nueno
José is a Professor in the Marketing department at IESE. He received his Doctorate of Business Administration (Marketing) at
Harvard University, Master of Business Administration at IESE and Degree in Law at the Universidad de Barcelona. His areas of
interest include the media and entertainment industry and retail and distribution strategy. He has published articles on globalization,
marketing of consumer goods and luxury goods and relationship marketing. He has taught at a several business schools, including
the elective course of Industrial Marketing at INSEAD, France as well as other management programs. He was a visiting professor
at the University of Michigan and in joint programs with the University of Michigan and IESE in Vevey, Switzerland and Shanghai,
China. In 2003 he was part of the faculty team for the Harvard Business School AMP Middle East Program and the Strategic
Program for Retail Managers. He is a member of the Boards of Directors of a number of leading international companies. He is
also a corporate consultant and advises national and international corporations in the area of marketing and strategy.
Cities - Professor Richard Burdett
Ricky is Centennial Professor in Architecture and Urbanism at the London School of Economics and Political Science, Director
of the Urban Age Programme and founding director of the LSE Cities Programme. He recently co-curated the Global Cities
exhibition at the Tate Modern in London. His latest appointment is as Principal Design Adviser for the London 2012 Olympics.
Previously he was architectural adviser to the Mayor of London from 2001 - 2006, a member of the Greater London Authority's
Architecture + Urbanism Unit and sat on the City of Barcelona's Quality Committee. Ricky was founder of the 9H Gallery and
the Architecture Foundation in London and has been a key player in promoting design excellence amongst public and private sector
organisations in the UK and Europe. He was Director of the 2006 Architecture Biennale in Venice on the subject of ‘Cities:
architecture and society’ and was chairman of the Jury for the 2007 Mies van der Rohe Prize.
Connectivity - Jan Färjh
Jan is Vice President and Head of Ericsson Research. He received his MSc in telecommunications at the Royal Institute of
Technology in Stockholm in 1985. After his graduation he developed signal processing algorithms for airborne radar systems. In
1990 he joined Ericsson and started to work with radio access technologies. He was part of Ericsson's first activities in WCDMA
and became manager of the unit responsible for radio access research in 1996. The research performed in this unit has
contributed to the evolution of WCDMA, HSPA and 3G LTE. In 2007 he became Head of Ericsson Research.
Currency - Dr. Rajiv Kumar
Rajiv is Chief Executive of ICRIER, the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations. He is also on the Central
Board of Directors of the State bank of India, a former member of the India National Security Advisory Board and a member of
the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India. Previously he has held the positions of Chief Economist at the Confederation of Indian
Industry, Economic Advisor at the Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance and Senior Consultants in the Ministry of
Industry in the Government of India. Rajiv as a PhD in Economics from Lucknow University, a DPhil in Economics from Oxford
University, has written several books and publications and contributes regularly to newspapers and journals.
Data - D J Collins
D J is Head of Corporate Communications for Google Europe. He has spent more than 10 years working in public relations and
before Google worked with a wide array of clients, including one of the UK’s largest trade unions. He became one of the youngest
ever Heads of News whilst working for the British Government.
Biographies
Energy - Leo Roodhart
Leo is the 2009 President of the Society of Petroleum Engineers. Prior to this he coordinated GameChanger - Shell’s corporate
Strategic Innovation program that identifies and sponsors the development of new breakthrough technologies in the context of
the various technology futures for the oil industry. Several new businesses and a multitude of new technologies have been created
in this new process. Leo holds an MSc in chemistry and a PhD in Mathematics and Physics from the University of Amsterdam.
He is an Associate Fellow on Strategic Innovation at Templeton College and Said Business School, University of Oxford. Leo has
worked for Shell for 29 years in various functions including research and development, exploration and production, business
development and innovation in The Netherlands, Canada and the UK.
Food - Jim Kirkwood
Jim is Vice President R&D at the Center for Technology Creation at General Mills where he leads the Corporate R&D function in
the development and/or acquisition of food product, process, package and Health & Wellness technologies in support of all GMI
business units. Previously he led R&D for the General Mills Snacks Division, driving growth through innovation in the Granola Bar,
Salty Snack, Popcorn and Fruit Snacks categories. Before that he was Director of R&D for Refrigerated and Frozen Baked Goods
for the Pillsbury Company. In his food career he has also worked with HJ Heinz, Kellogg and Quaker Oats. Jim has an MBA from
the University of Chicago and a BSc in Chemical Engineering from Purdue University.
Health - Dr Jack Lord
Jack is CEO of California-based Navigenics Inc., and was previously with Humana, Inc., where, as Chief Innovation Officer and
Chief Executive of Humana Europe, he led the development of new products and services to transform the healthcare system
and support personal health needs. Before Humana, Jack was president of Health Dialog, where he helped pioneer e-enabled
health care and promoted shared decision making between doctors and patients. His earlier career included executive positions
with the American Hospital Association, the Anne Arundel Medical Center in Annapolis, and Sun Health in Charlotte, NC. Jack
is a board-certified forensic pathologist with more than three decades of experience in medical practice. After receieving his
medical degree from the University of Miami in 1978, he launched his medical career with the U.S. Navy, where he served in
leadership positions for the Navy’s Surgeon General and Secretary of the Navy. He is currently on the Advisory Board to the
Director of the CDC, the National Biosurveillance Committee, and the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Chronic
Disease and Malnutrition. He is also a director for Stericycle and Dexcom.
Identity - Professor Mike Hardy OBE
Mike leads the British Council’s work in intercultural dialogue - one of three programme areas which define British Council’s work
in cultural relations. Intercultural Dialogue combines interventions developing the capabilities of young people as leaders and
community participants, worldwide, with volunteering and schools exchanges projects. Between 2004 and 2008, Mike was
Country Director for the British Council in Indonesia where, among other activities he supported the development of the UK-
Indonesia Islamic Advisory Group and launched new programmes in community leadership following the Tsunami in North Sumatra.
Before Indonesia, Mike was a member of the British Council’s senior management team where he directed global contracts in
international development. Between 1997 and 2000 he directed regional project work for the Middle East from Cairo, Egypt. Prior
to the British Council, Mike was Head of Economics and Public Policy at Leeds Metropolitan University and Professor of
International Business at Central Lancashire.
Migration - Professor Richard Black
Richard is Head of the School of Global Studies at the University of Sussex, Co-Director of the Sussex Centre for Migration
Research, and Director of the Development Research Centre on Migration, Globalisation and Poverty. His work focuses on the
study of international migration, including forced migration and post-conflict return, and related social and economic
transformations. He is presently researching and writing on the development of public policy on migration and development,
especially in poor countries, and on immigrant integration in the UK, particularly relating to recent East European and African
migrations. Richard is also co-editor of the Journal of Refugee Studies, the leading international interdisciplinary journal in refugee
studies, is currently serving on the Advisory Board of the Civil Society Days for the Global Forum on Migration and Development
104 Biographies
in Athens and is an advisor to the Global Development Network project 'Development on the Move'. Richard completed his
undergraduate degree in Geography in 1986, his PhD in 1990 and came to Sussex in 1995 from King's College London. He
has worked as a consultant for a number of international organisations including the United Nations High Commissioner for
Refugees and the European Training Foundation.
Money - Dave Birch
Dave is Founder of the Digital Money Forum and a co-Founder of Consult Hyperion, the IT management consultancy that
specialises in electronic transactions. He is currently the Visa Europe Research Fellow in Payments at the Centre for the Study
of Financial Innovation in London, who label him "one of the most user-friendly of the UK's uber-techies". He was also described
by The Independent newspaper as a "grade-A geek", and by Financial World magazine as "mad". Dave is a member of the
editorial board of the E-Finance & Payments Law and Policy Journal and a columnist for SPEED. He has lectured on the impact
of new information and communications technologies, contributed to publications ranging from the Parliamentary IT Review to
Grocery Trader and authored more than 100 Second Sight columns for The Guardian. He is a media commentator on electronic
business issues.
Transport - Mark Philips
Mark is Interior Design Manager working at Jaguar's Advanced Design Studio. He led the interior design of the critically acclaimed
new Jaguar XJ and his interior design for the 2001 R-Coupe concept car established Jaguar’s current design language. Mark’s
work also includes the interior designs of the XK8 and XJ Concept-8 show car. Between 2001 and 2003, he led Jaguar design
at Ford’s Ingeni Studio in Soho, London. Previously, Mark worked at Rover and Lincoln in Detroit.
Waste - Professor Ian Williams
Ian was the founder and Head of the Centre for Waste Management at the University of Central Lancashire and is now Director
of Education and Deputy Head of the School of Civil Engineering and the Environment at the University of Southampton. He is
a Chartered Chemist with a wide range of academic interests, including wastes minimisation and management; environmental
chemistry and pollution; and public perceptions of environmental issues and their implications for environmental protection, public
policy and society. Ian has an international reputation for research in two areas: urban environmental quality and wastes
management. He has published two books and over 60 peer-reviewed papers on waste and environmental issues, as well as over
80 commercial project reports. He has held positions on the scientific and organizing committees of several international
conferences and is a Trustee of the charity Waste Watch.
Water - Professor Stewart Burn
Stewart is Stream Leader of Infrastructure Technologies at CSIRO in Australia. His work includes fundamental research on the
deterioration and management of urban water networks and the development of asset management, planning, prioritisation and
risk assessment systems for these networks. He is also involved in developing methodologies to allow the transition of existing
systems to more sustainable states through the adoption of decentralised technologies and the development of water treatment
technologies to recover resources from wastewater. Stewart was instrumental in establishing CSIRO's Urban Water research area
where he has an interest in water, wastewater and storm-water research. He is an Adjunct Professor at the Institute of
Sustainability and Innovation, Victoria University, Victoria, Australia, is chairman of several Australian and international standards
committees and is also Editor for both Water Science and Technology and Water Asset Management International.
Work - Chris Meyer
Chris is Chief Executive of Monitor Networks. His mission is to anticipate and shape the future of business. He has pursued this goal
as entrepreneur, author, leader of a think tank, consultant, and executive. Products of this mission include three books: Blur: The Speed
of Change In the Connected Economy; Future Wealth; and It’s Alive: the Coming Convergence of Information, Biology, and Business
(all co-authored with Stan Davis) and articles in the Harvard Business Review, Sloan Management Review, Fast Company, Time, The
Wall Street Journal, Business Week, and others. In 2004, Chris joined the Monitor Group to lead Monitor Networks, a business based
on the ideas about human capital markets. Monitor Talent, founded by Monitor Networks, has now built a network of 75 thought leaders
in business, science, and public policy; Chris curates Now New Next, the Monitor Talent blog on Harvard Business Digital.
105Biographies
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