Future Aerosol Emissions From

Industrial and Utility Boilers

Soonkyu Jung 1

Tami. C. Bond2, and David G. Streets3

1,2 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois, USA

3 Decision and Information Sciences,

Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois, USA

Combustion

Image from www.saltwater.co.uk/ downloads.htm

Aerosols are an important pollutant in urban areas. PM2.5 are considered to have significant adverse effect to human health and stringent regulations to reduce PM2.5 emission have been issued in many world regions.

Black Carbon and Climate Black carbon has been the second largest

climate forcing after CO2. - Jacobson (2000)

“Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change”

(Hansen et al, 2000)

Radiative Forcing

(IPCC,2001)

Challenges Warm or cool?

OC scatter light back to space thus acting to reduce the warming

BC warms climate by absorbing sun lights Determining the ratio is a difficult task

Where & How much of the BC/OC comes from? Different Combustion process / Control

Historical & future emission Lack of historical data

Aerosol-Climate Study Overview

Emission Inventory

Emission Factor Fuel ConsumptionRegional Properties

ClimateModel

Aerosol Emissions from Combustion

www.upstate.edu/ pathenvi/basics/bas1.html

Aerosol from deferent fuel Combustion technology have totally different properties & amountBy Using this idea, we develop aerosol emission inventory

Total Emissions

l nnmlknmlkj

mmlkkj XEFFCEm ,,,,,,,,,,

Where, j species; k country ; l sector; m fuel type ; n fuel/technology combination;Em Emissions FC fuel consumption, kg/yrEF Emission Factor specific to fuel/technology combination

(including the effects of control devices), g/kgX Fraction of fuel of this sector consumed by

a specific technology, where ∑X =1 for each fuel and sector

BOND ET AL., 2004

Determination of the total emission

0.60.05

0.05

1212

0.15

0.15

2.02.00.94

0.951.425

1.51.5

2kg pm 1,000kg

Sector : Transport Fuel type Fuel Consumption Emission FactorFuel Fraction

EFpm,g/kgDiesel

normal

Diesel

Super emitter

Present Day Estimate of BC/OC- Bond et al. 2004

Which of these will change in the future?

Fuel Change

www.sacecs.co.za

en.wikipedia.org

Coal-fired, high BC

Gas or electric, low BC

We Use IPCC SRES Scenario for fuel estimation

Which of these will change in the future?

Technology Change

www.sacecs.co.za

Google.com

Old burner - high BC

Modern Combustor, low BC

We Develop Dynamic Simulation toolFor future technology splits

Which of these will change in the future?

Emission Control Technology

Street, 2004

We Develop Dynamic Simulation toolFor future technology splits

Electrostatic precipitator, high collection efficiency

Cyclone, low collection efficiency

Governing factors of technology change

Diffusion Studies suggest • Adoption rate of new technology is:

-Positively related to the Benefits & Technology popularity

-Negatively related to the Costs

We use (based on historical trend simulation):

• Emission Standards of species ( Regulation )• Technology popularity (e.g. Installed Capacity)• Technology limitation (Newer technology takes time to be

used in Developing countries)• Economic situation

Drivers : Regulation and Control Efficiency

Control Efficiency over Emission Standard

96.0

96.5

97.0

97.5

98.0

98.5

99.0

99.5

100.0

0-50 50-100 100-200 200-300 Over 300

PM Emission Standard(mg/m3) (Efficiency of MC is estimated about 75%)

Ove

rall

Eff

icie

ncy

(%)

BagHouse

ESP

Scrubber

Drivers : Government Regulation

Emission Control Equipment Installation Trend

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

-18 -17 -16 -15 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0

Regulation Start Year - Boiler Installed Year

Inst

alla

tio

n R

atio

Drivers : Capacity- Case of Cyclone Furnace

Uncontrolled NO Concentrations for Types of combustion (Air Pollution Control Manual, 1992, p. 216)

Technology Choice Probabilities- Case of Cyclone Furnace

Technology Possibility of Cyclone Firing (over NOx Standards)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0 100 200 300 400 500

Boiler Capacity(MW)

Ad

op

tio

n P

oss

ibili

ty

0.3 0.6 1.2 2.4

Drivers : - Boiler Population Trend

Estimate Boiler Age Distribution- From Fuel Consumption Data

Capacity Modeling(U.S. Coal Generation Util)

0

20000000

40000000

60000000

80000000

100000000

120000000

140000000

160000000

180000000

1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991

Year

Co

al c

on

sum

pti

on

Inc(

ton

)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

New

cap

a in

stal

led

(MW

)

Model Observed

Emission Standards Modeling- Particulate Matter over GDP per Capita

Emission Standard Model(Particulate Matter)

0

50

100

150

200

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300

350

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450

500

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000

GDP per Capita(Dollars)

Em

issi

on

Sta

nd

ard

(TS

P)

mg

/m3

Observed Modeled

Drivers : Industry Sector Change

Sectoral Change (Service) over Economic Growth

y = 0.2351x0.1016

R2 = 0.5664

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

100 1,000 10,000 100,000

GDP per Capita (US Dollar)

Shar

e of S

ervic

e Sec

tor

Sectoral Change (Agriculture) over Economic Growth

y = 7.7153x-0.5691

R2 = 0.8532

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

100 1000 10000 100000

GDP per Capita (US Dollar)

Shar

e of A

gricu

ture

Agriculture Dominant ---- Service Sector Dominant

Description of The Model

Schematic diagram for developing future emissions inventory model

Preliminary Result Total global coal-boiler capacity is

estimated to increase (in all scenarios , Ranging from 394%-605% for the power sector)

Use of coal boilers for power generation is expected to be high in many world regions, because the demand for electricity is expected to increase in all scenarios (from 340%-540%) and use of coal for electricity generation to remain high (20%-31%)

Preliminary Result (Cont.) The boiler capacity in South Asia is

forecasted to take the largest of the 2050 values of 9%-20% under most scenarios except A2 scenario which expects USA as the largest share

Selected global combustion technology changes

Combustion Technology Change(Industry - HardCoal)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Scenario - Year

Tec

hn

olo

gy

Sh

are

Stoker Pulv Cyclone FBC

Combustion Technology Change(Utility - HardCoal)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Scenario - Year

Tech

no

log

y S

hare

Stoker Pulv Cyclone FBC IGCC

(a)

Questions? Thank you

Description of The Model- Simulate initial Distribution of Boilers Create Boiler inventory

Combustor Type Control Equipment Type Boiler Age (Estimated from Fuel Consumption) Capacity Distribution

Description of The Model- Run the Model for a Step Year Examine Boiler Age and Retire Boilers Check New Regulation and Upgrade

Control Equipment Calculate amount of capacity of boilers in

this step year Determine the firing type and control

device

Description of The Model- Determine Emissions Technology Splits from simulation will be

interfaced with Emission Inventory program

17 World Regions in this model (From IMAGE Group 2002)

Boiler Capacity Distribution- Assume Follow S-Shape Curve

Indutrial Boiler Capacity Curve

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 1 2 4 8 16 33 67 134

Boiler Capacity(MW)

Cu

mu

lati

ve R

atio

(%)

Model

Real Capa

IPCC ScenariosA1, A2, B1, B2

Fuel, GDP

U.S DOE Utility Survey

U.S. EPA Industrial Boiler Inventory

Bond et al2004

Inventory

IEA Historical Fuel Data

Determine Distribution- Create 10 Capacity Groups

Set unit number in each group

Simulate Distribution

Create Blank Cells

Number of Units of Groups

Initialize Unit properties (Sources)Capacity (Distribution module)

Technology (Previous Inventory)Age (Age module)

Determine model size of a country

Determine Age Based on U.S Historical Trend + IEA Historical Fuel data

Run the model to the Next 5Year

ChK Boilers AgeRetire Boilers

New Regulations?

Regulation Modeling

Current Emission Standards Data

GDP

Future Capacity Modeling

Future Fuel

Choose New Control Device

Need New Boilers? Choose New Boilers

Target Year?Y

Determine Technology SplitsNo, Next Step

Emission FactorModeling Modules

GDP

Splits

probability model

SPEWFuture Emission Inventory

Schematic methodology for the development of future emission inventory of boilers

SRES Scenarios

A2

Eco

nomy

Technology E

n ergy

Agriculture

(Land-use)

D r i v i n g F o r c e s

A1

B2Global

Economic

Regional

Environmental

B1

Population

Emphasis on sustainability

and equity

Emphasis on

material wealth

Globalisation

Regionalisation

A1 BalancedA1 FossilA1 Technology

B1

B2A2

What are the IPCC SRES scenarios

IPCC Scenarios

Em

ph

asi

s on

su

sta

inab

ilit

y a

nd

eq

uit

yGlobalisation

Regionalisation/fragmentation

Globalised, intensive

‘Market-Forces’

Em

ph

asi

s on

m

ate

rial w

ealt

h

Regional, extensive

‘Mixed green bag’

Globalised, extensive

‘Sustainable development’

Regional, intensive

‘Clash of civilisations’

Impacts

Impacts of more intense rainfall on storm drains/sewers

Changes in circulation and the implications for air pollution

Coastal cities and tidal surge Implications of increased wind storm

IPCC Working Group, 2002

Present Day Estimate of BC/OC- Bond et al. 2004

Previous Estimates of Aerosol Emissions From Fossil Fuel Combustion (Tg/Year)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Liousse et al.[1996]

Cooke et al.[1999]

Bond et al. [2004]

BC

OC

Calculation j species

• BC( Black Carbon) or OC( Organic Carbon)

k country• Country level (in large country, State or Province level)

l sector• Residential, Industry, Power, Transport, Biomass Burning

m fuel type• Diesel, Hard Coal, Gasoline, Wood…

n fuel/technology combination• Fuel used by a specific technology

l nnmlknmlkj

mmlkkj XEFFCEm ,,,,,,,,,,

Total Emission(2-2)

Sector

Fuel

Fuel/Technology combination

Emission Factors (EF)Emission Factors of BC and OC ( j = BC or OC )

• EFBC=EFPM F1.0 FBC Fcont,

Where

EFPM the bulk particulate emission factor, g/kg

F1.0 fraction of emissions with diameters smaller than 1μm

FBC fraction of fine particulate matter that is black carbon

Fcont the fraction of fine PM that penetrates the control device

• EFOC=EFPM F1.0 FOC Fcont,

Where

FOC fraction of fine particulate matter that is organic carbon

l nnmlknmlkj

mmlkkj XEFFCEm ,,,,,,,,,,

Fuel consumption of the future

FCi,k,l,m = FC1996,k,l,m × FCIMi,k,l,m / FCIM1996,k,l,m

where

FC1996,k,l,m IEA Energy Statistics data for the year 1996

FCIM fuel consumption in the IPCC IMAGE dataset.

l nnmlkinmlkji

mmlkikji XEFFCEm ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Emission factors for the future

EFi,j,l,m,n = EFPMi,j,l,m,n× fsubj,l,m,n×fCj,l,m,n ×fconti,l,m,n

Where

fsub = f1.0

fC = fraction of the particulate matter that is carbon (FBC +FOC)

l nnmlkinmlkji

mmlkikji XEFFCEm ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Evolution of Emission Factors

fCj,l,m,n , fsubj,l,m,n and EFPM

Constant over time for each combination of scenario/species/sector/fuel/technology

fconti,l,k,m,n

• Collection efficiency could be estimated from

regulation, economics, technology innovation

fcont = 1/{1+exp(-[log(αCn)+ βStdpm+ γ])}

where, α, β, γ coefficients

Cn technology adoption parameter

Stdpm Emission Standards of particulate matter

EFi,j,k,l,m,n = EFPMi,j,l,m,n× fsubj,l,m,n×fCj,l,m,n ×fconti,l,k,m,n

Radiative Forcing

Values of Particulate Matter Emission Characteristics for Stationary Combustion

BOND ET AL., 2004

Emission Standards Modeling Short-term emission standards reflect present

(and proposed) legislation longer term emission standards are assumed

to improve due to technological enhancements

Use GDP per Capita as a proxy for technological enhancements