FUNDAMENTAL COVERAGE -SML ISUZU LTD

9
Price ` 660 Target 1035 Upside 57% Div Yield 0.21% Tenure 1 Year New Launches to Drive Growth Sensex 35,162.48 Nifty 10,584.75 Group/Index M.cap (` in cr) 956 Equity (` In cr) 14.48 52 wk H/L ` 1090/610 Face Value ` 10.00 NSE code SMLISUZU BSE code 505192 Capex well planned RONW 5% P/E 44 P/BV 2.3 EV/EBIDTA 17.57 IN ` Series of events detiorated FY18 EV (`in cr) 1231.34 BV (`in cr) 288.79 NW(`in cr) 418.17 EPS (TTM) 15.10 FY 20Est. Earnings 47.13 Equity Share Capital 14.48 10.00 1.45 EPS(FY20E) 32.55 Estimated Price/share 1035 Note: P/E has been est. around 35xs, Estimated price discounted@10% for 1yr Year End 201803 201703 201603 201503 Tax Rate % 10.15 25.12 25.12 24.23 Source: Google Receivable days 37 29 32 32 Div. Payout % 25.55 18.38 22.64 23.52 One amongst the listed pure play Cv player, finds its buyers in countries such as Bangladesh, Nepal, Nigeria, Ghana, Zambia, West Indies, Sri Lanka, besides India. 15-16% volume CAGR is expected for SML over FY19-21E, led by recovery in demand for the School Bus segment and expanding presence in the cargo segment. The Company is geared to meet the demand for its products with sufficient availability of vehicles besides introduction of new products / models, in particular the Global Series trucks in 5-10T category- marks a shift after 3 decades , with new improved cabin having features for more comfort & safety, and Ecomax LR in the bus segment (introduced in the latter part of 2017-18), as also a new range of CNG vehicles with Turbo CNG Engine and higher power Engine for tippers. Also, the new truck series comes with SML Saarthi, an advanced information response system, car-cabin like features and better fuel-efficiency and uptime. With this, the company seeks to grow its market share from about 12 % to 17-20 % in its focus segment (5-12 tonne) going forward. Going forward, the management sees strong revival in earnings in FY19, led by pickup in demand of School Bus segment and new launches in cargo segment Stock Details Key Financial Data INVESTMENT RESEARCH FUNDAMENTAL COVERAGE -SML ISUZU LTD Dated : 16th October 2018 FV Share Holding Pattern Corporate Governance Transparency Ratio's No. of Equity Shares BUY Investment Rationale REVISED VALUATION (` In Cr except per share) Company's capex project (FY17-21) envisaging an outlay of ` 220 crores towards technological advancement, product up-gradation / development and up-gradation of plant infrastructure to improve manufacturing efficiency is in its final stages of completion. As on March,2018, ` 191.3 crores has been incurred. For this capex spending, the Company has drawn `140.0 crores External Commercial Borrowings (ECB), designated in US Dollars (fully hedged), and the balance is from internal accruals. Moreover, is investing `30cr in an additional assembly line to ramp up production capacity from 15,000 units per shift to 25,000 units which is expected to come on-stream by FY19 . B / S&P BSE SmallCap FY18 volumes & revenues witnessed a difficult year. Due to inadequate availability of vehicles for sale caused by the unexpected and sudden order of the Supreme Court of India banning sale of BS III vehicles. Order had rendered the entire inventory of BS III vehicles, built up for the ensuing school bus season of April- July 2017, non-saleable. In subsequent months, production of vehicles suffered on account of shortage of some critical components. Also, the effects of demonetisation & GST implementation has added cheery to the cake. Consequently, sales volume for the year could reach only 11355 against 14909 sold in the previous year. Domestic sales dropped to about 13,000 units during 2017-18 from 15,300 in 2016-17, mainly due to GST- related challenges, thus effecting the overall revenues. However, to address this inventory issue, the Company has converted all BS III vehicles to BS IV. Moreover, with entry into new markets such as Nigeria and Ghana, the company total exports in the range of 1,200-1,500 units this fiscal, up from about 800 units in 2017-18. The key challenges during fiscal 2018-19 and going forward for the Company would be preparing itself to comply with series of new regulations announced by the Government such as -additional bus body code with requirements like electronic stability control (ESC), multiplex wiring, NVH, Fire detection alarm, truck body code and several other regulations, to enhance passenger & driver comfort and road safety. As regards already notified BS-VI emission norms, to be effective from April 2020, SMLI has taken appropriate steps to meet the target timelines. Key Valuation Ratios 44% 56% Promoter Others Page 1 www.rudrashares.com

Transcript of FUNDAMENTAL COVERAGE -SML ISUZU LTD

Page 1: FUNDAMENTAL COVERAGE -SML ISUZU LTD

Price ` 660

Target 1035

Upside 57%

Div Yield 0.21%

Tenure 1 Year New Launches to Drive Growth

Sensex 35,162.48

Nifty 10,584.75

Group/Index

M.cap (` in cr) 956

Equity (` In cr) 14.48

52 wk H/L ` 1090/610

Face Value ` 10.00

NSE code SMLISUZU

BSE code 505192 Capex well planned

RONW 5%

P/E 44

P/BV 2.3

EV/EBIDTA 17.57

IN ` Series of events detiorated FY18

EV (`in cr) 1231.34

BV (`in cr) 288.79

NW(`in cr) 418.17

EPS (TTM) 15.10

FY 20Est. Earnings 47.13

Equity Share Capital 14.48

10.00

1.45

EPS(FY20E) 32.55

Estimated Price/share 1035

Note: P/E has been est. around 35xs, Estimated price discounted@10% for 1yr

Year End 201803 201703 201603 201503

Tax Rate % 10.15 25.12 25.12 24.23Source: Google Receivable days 37 29 32 32

Div. Payout % 25.55 18.38 22.64 23.52

One amongst the listed pure play Cv player, finds its buyers in countries such as Bangladesh,Nepal, Nigeria, Ghana, Zambia, West Indies, Sri Lanka, besides India.15-16% volume CAGR is expected for SML over FY19-21E, led by recovery in demand for theSchool Bus segment and expanding presence in the cargo segment.

The Company is geared to meet the demand for its products with sufficient availability of vehicles besides

introduction of new products / models, in particular the Global Series trucks in 5-10T category- marks a

shift after 3 decades , with new improved cabin having features for more comfort & safety, and Ecomax LR

in the bus segment (introduced in the latter part of 2017-18), as also a new range of CNG vehicles with

Turbo CNG Engine and higher power Engine for tippers.

Also, the new truck series comes with SML Saarthi, an advanced information response system, car-cabin

like features and better fuel-efficiency and uptime.

With this, the company seeks to grow its market share from about 12 % to 17-20 % in its focus

segment (5-12 tonne) going forward.

Going forward, the management sees strong revival in earnings in FY19, led by pickup in demand of School

Bus segment and new launches in cargo segment

Stock Details

Key Financial Data

INVESTMENT RESEARCH

FUNDAMENTAL COVERAGE -SML ISUZU LTDDated : 16th October 2018

FV

Share Holding Pattern

Corporate Governance Transparency Ratio's

No. of Equity Shares

BUY Investment Rationale

REVISED VALUATION (` In Cr except per share)

Company's capex project (FY17-21) envisaging an outlay of ` 220 crores towards technological

advancement, product up-gradation / development and up-gradation of plant infrastructure to improve

manufacturing efficiency is in its final stages of completion. As on March,2018, ` 191.3 crores has been

incurred. For this capex spending, the Company has drawn `140.0 crores External Commercial

Borrowings (ECB), designated in US Dollars (fully hedged), and the balance is from internal accruals.

Moreover, is investing `30cr in an additional assembly line to ramp up production capacity from 15,000

units per shift to 25,000 units which is expected to come on-stream by FY19 .

B / S&P BSE

SmallCap

FY18 volumes & revenues witnessed a difficult year. Due to inadequate availability of vehicles for sale

caused by the unexpected and sudden order of the Supreme Court of India banning sale of BS III vehicles.

Order had rendered the entire inventory of BS III vehicles, built up for the ensuing school bus season of April-

July 2017, non-saleable. In subsequent months, production of vehicles suffered on account of shortage of

some critical components. Also, the effects of demonetisation & GST implementation has added cheery to the

cake.

Consequently, sales volume for the year could reach only 11355 against 14909 sold in the previous year.

Domestic sales dropped to about 13,000 units during 2017-18 from 15,300 in 2016-17, mainly due to GST-

related challenges, thus effecting the overall revenues.

However, to address this inventory issue, the Company has converted all BS III vehicles to BS IV.

Moreover, with entry into new markets such as Nigeria and Ghana, the company total exports in the range of

1,200-1,500 units this fiscal, up from about 800 units in 2017-18.

The key challenges during fiscal 2018-19 and going forward for the Company would be preparing itself

to comply with series of new regulations announced by the Government such as -additional bus body code

with requirements like electronic stability control (ESC), multiplex wiring, NVH, Fire detection alarm,

truck body code and several other regulations, to enhance passenger & driver comfort and road safety. As

regards already notified BS-VI emission norms, to be effective from April 2020, SMLI has taken

appropriate steps to meet the target timelines.

Key Valuation Ratios

44%

56%

Promoter Others

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Page 2: FUNDAMENTAL COVERAGE -SML ISUZU LTD

Road map ahead

Q1 FY19 Results

Review of SML operations

` in crores

Q1FY19 Q4 FY 18 Q1 FY 18

452.63 368.08 357.54 22.97% 26.60% 1174.14 1208.40 -2.84%

40.38 26.09 18.70 54.77% 115.94% 48.37 114.15 -57.63%

8.92% 7.09% 5.23% - - 4.12% 9.45% -

20.11 14.87 6.75 35.24% 197.93% 8.39 63 -86.68%

4.44% 4.04% 1.89% - - 0.71% 5.21% -86.29%

13.89 10.27 4.66 35.25% 198.07% 5.87 43.52 -86.51%

Q1

FY

19

& F

Y 2

01

8

Re

sult

s:

Results Snapshot

ParticularsQuarter Ended % change

Q-0-Q

% change

Y-0-YFY18 FY 17

% change

Y-0-Y

Net Sales

EBITDA

EBITDA %

PAT

PAT %

EPS

The recovery in the Commercial Vehicles industry, led by the truck segment, since the beginning of Q2 of

2017-18 has continued. It is expected that, during current fiscal 2018-19, growth momentum in the truck

segment will sustain supported by Government's focus on infrastructure projects, higher demand from

consumption driven sectors as well as e-commerce logistics service providers, further helped by the adoption of

hub-n-spoke model of distribution by more business enterprises as a result of the new GST law. The bus

segment is also expected to grow, after a year of sharp contraction, supported by replacement led demand

and Government thrust on improvement of transport systems in urban areas as well as in the rural sector .

Based on the above factors, the industry forecast during fiscal 2018-19, demand in M&HCV Truck

segment is expected to grow by 4-6% and the LCV Truck segment by 9-11%. Bus sales are expected to

rise by 12-14%.

Amidst competitive environment and to meet ever changing regulatory requirements, the Companywill continue its focus on customer reach, product development and up-gradation, innovative andcost effective technology solutions, up-gradation of manufacturing technology and cost cutting.

The Indian economy witnessed a slow-down during fiscal 2017-18 due to persisting impact ofdemonetization, transitory disruptions caused by implementation of Goods and Service Tax (GST)and weak agricultural growth. GDP growth estimate of 6.6 percent for fiscal 2017-18 (7.1 percentachieved in fiscal 2016-17) has been the lowest since 2014-15. However, Commercial VehicleIndustry (all segments including exports) grew 15.9 percent to reach volume of 9,53,300 vehiclessupported by Government's push towards infrastructure development, road construction &mining activities; an increased demand from consumption driven sectors as well as e-commercelogistics service providers; and strict implementation of overloading norms in some states. Light

vehicles (LCVs) grew higher at 19.5 percent to reach 5,68,900 and Medium & Heavy vehicles(M&HCVs) grew 11.0 percent to reach 3,84,400.

RESULTS CORNER

The company began FY19 on a strong footing with volume growth of 49%, 37%, 18% and 43% inApril, May, June and July 2018 respectively, helped by low base of year ago period and sorting ofearlier issues.SML ISUZU sold 4154 vehicles in Q1FY19 against 3140 vehicles sold in Q1FY18, a growth of32.2%. For the Q1 ended June 2018, the company posted 26.6% rise in sales to Rs 452.63 cr.,whereas net profit rose 197% to Rs 20.11 cr.. The EPS for Q1 stands at Rs 13.9. SML Isuzu hadposted turnover of Rs 1,174 cr. in FY18, against Rs 1,369 cr. in FY17. In FY18, SML Isuzu’s netprofit stood at Rs 8.5 cr against Rs 62.8 cr. in FY17. On a equity of 14.48 cr., its EPS stood at Rs 5.9and the dividend declared was 15%. FY18 numbers were hit by component supply issues and aslowdown in the School Bus and lower-tonnage truck demand.

Sorting of Inventory issues & other effects, led to increase in Q1 vehicle

sales figure to 32.3%, though growth in Q2 remained a little bit

subdued as compared to Q1.

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Sales Figure

Sales Figure

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

FY17 FY18

Revenue(net)- ` in crores

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Q1FY19 Q1FY18

EPS (in `)

Sales Figure

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Drivers for Growth

Commercial Vehicle Industry Vs SMLI

Q1FY17 Q1FY18 % p Q1FY17 Q1FY18 % p

SMLI Segment(5-12ton)

11767 12251 4.10% 15205 17733 16.60%

45568 87975 93.10% Goods Carriers(3.5-10ton) 12542 18007 43.60%

57335 100226 74.80% Total 14700 21087 43.40%

13603 17220 26.60% Passenger Carriers 2158 3080 42.70%

98189 137042 39.60% Goods Carriers 982 1074 9.40%

111792 154262 38.00% 3140 4154 32.30%

169127 254488 50.50%

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INDUSTRY ANALYSIS

Demand for trucks during financial year 2018-19 is expected to remain buoyant due to the increased thrust

on infrastructure projects, growing demand from consumption-driven sectors & e-commerce logistic serviceproviders, preference for hub-n-spoke model etc., replacement led buying and generally improved economicscenario. Based on these factors, M&HCV truck segment is likely to register a growth of 7-9% during 2018-19 whereas LCV truck segment is expected to register a growth of 10-12%.In the passenger bus segment, replacement led buying, following a year of sharp contraction, andGovernment's focus on improving urban as well as rural transportation, etc. are expected to push volumes &with this, Bus segment will witness a growth of 12-14% during 2018-19, as per ICRA.Further, the Government's plan on phasing out of older diesel vehicles, at an advanced stage offormalization, is expected to generate additional demand both for trucks and buses.

Automobiles demand would continue to be strong across segments on the back of

Increase in the government’s capital spending and focus on the rural economy

Increasing per capita income and growing urbanization, and

Falling interest costs and better finance availability.

Key threats to demand are posed by inflationary fuel prices and higher interest rates.

As per GIA study on Commercial Vehicles (CV), Asia-Pacific is expected to emerge as the fastest growing hub forCV production led by shifting of automobile production bases to low cost Asian countries.

As per CRISIL, long term prospects of the Commercial Vehicle industry are positive. Apart from macro-economicfactors, implementation of emission & anti-overloading norms, scrapping regulations for older vehicles andchanging landscape of the logistics industry towards an organized one would continue to support demand forCVs.

Passenger Carriers

Goods Carriers

Total LCVs- B

Particulars

M&HCVs (above 7.5ton)

TOTAL (A+B)

Passenger Carriers

Goods Carriers

Total M&HCVs- A

LCVs (upto 7.5ton) SMLI Sales

Total

Indian Commercial Vehicles Industry (excluding exports) grew 19.9 percent during financial year 2017-18,driven by strong demand in the LCV Truck segment which grew 29.5 percent and also in the M&HCV Trucksegment which registered a growth of 19.4 percent. In contrast, sales volume of buses contracted 13.7percent. The growth in the truck segment was supported by Government's push towards infrastructuredevelopment, road construction & mining activities; pent-up demand post GST implementation, replacement-led buying, improvement in finance availability at easier terms for purchase of vehicles and strictimplementation of overloading norms in some states. Decline in the bus segment was on account ofsluggish demand for large buses and deferment of orders from State Road Transport Undertakings(SRTUs), owing to lower budgetary allocations.Exports volumes declined by 10.5 percent to reach 96,900 vehicles.

SMLI

Particulars

Passenger Carriers

Thus, Improving conditions of road infrastructure –development of state highways & expressways,focus on power generation, housing, health & education coupled with increasing disposable incomesand changing commuting habits, are expected to maintain the growth momentum in the Indian CVmarket.

CV Industry (Domestic+Exports)

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Page 4: FUNDAMENTAL COVERAGE -SML ISUZU LTD

Company Overview

Estimating the share price of the company as per P/E valuationP/E of FY20E at around 35x , EPS(Est.) at ` 32.55 , the estimated share price (discounted@10% for

1year) turns around to be ` 1035. We recommend to BUY this script.

Introduction of 7-tonne mini-trucks to meet the changing customer needs, with up gradation andautomation, SML Isuzu hopes to surpass its previous domestic and export sales high during this fiscal,supported by the launch of new global series trucks, market penetration and a favorable outlook.Improving conditions of road infrastructure –development of state highways & expressways, focus on powergeneration, housing, health & education coupled with increasing disposable incomes and changingcommuting habits, are expected to maintain the growth momentum in the Indian CV market.

New lunches for SML in the near future, excellent execution of its capex plans would drive growth. Moreover,SML has sorted out its previous inventory issues which had lead to de-growth in the previous year. Also, hasreported strong Q1 numbers. It is already on track with regard to notified BS-VI emission norms, to be effectivefrom April 2020. SML expects to increase its market share from about 12 % to 17-20 % in its focus segment (5-12 tonne) going forward.

Valuation Conclusion

SML Isuzu Ltd. (SMLI) is a trusted and reliable commercial vehicle manufacturer since 1985. It has over 33Years of experience in producing Light & Medium commercial vehicles to meet the Indian customer needs.SMLI is a first company to manufacture and supply state of the art fully built Buses, Ambulances andcustomized vehicles.Sumitomo Corporation, Japan and Isuzu Motors, Japan respectively holds 43.96% and 15% shareholding in theCompany.

RUDRA SHARES &

STOCK BROKERS LTD.

The demand for commercial vehicles is influenced by general

economic conditions, including rates of economic growth,

availability of credit, interest rates, environmental and tax

policies, safety regulations, freight rates, fuel, commodity prices

etc. Unfavorable trends in any of these factors will pose concern for

the industry.

Risks and concerns Opportunities & threats

Outlook for CV industry is positive, backed by projected

improvement in industrial activity, strong focus on infrastructure

development, steady agricultural output and rising consumption

expenditure. Over the medium term, Truck segment would also

benefit from roll out of GST with positive impact on logistics sector

through lifting of barriers and enhanced preference for hub-n-spoke

model. Transformation from BS-IV to BS-VI and other regulatory changes

would require modifications in almost every segment thereby

substantially increasing cost of production and, therefore, the

prices of vehicles.

To mitigate the above challenges, Company is continuing its

focus on - product development, innovative and cost effective

technology solutions such as power trains through

outsourcing, cost cutting, improvements in after sale service,

measures for customer satisfaction, brand promotion,

enhancing dealer network and empowering their sales force,

etc.

Government's increased thrust on improvement in transport system

and initiatives like Smart City Program and increasing demand from

inter-city movement are expected to drive growth in the bus

segment.

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Page 5: FUNDAMENTAL COVERAGE -SML ISUZU LTD

LTM 201806 201803 201712 201709

1269.20 452.63 368.08 221.45 227.07

70.10 40.38 26.09 (1.17) 4.76

30.80 9.36 6.85 7.51 7.06

39.30 31.02 19.24 (8.68) (2.30)

3.50 0.80 1.78 0.66 0.23

12.40 4.10 1.30 4.07 2.95

26.90 26.92 17.94 (12.75) (5.25)

5.00 6.81 3.07 (2.99) (1.89)

21.90 20.11 14.87 (9.76) (3.36)

- - - - -

21.90 20.11 14.87 (9.76) (3.36)

15.10 13.89 10.27 (6.74) (2.32)

Particulars 201503 201603 201703 201803 2019E 2020E 2021E

Revenue 1105.55 1166.37 1356.17 1135.05 1408.30 1726.37 2064.12

Other operating Income - - - - - - -

Total Inc. from operations 1105.55 1166.37 1356.17 1135.05 1408.3 1726.37 2064.12

Operating EBITA 45.78 67.28 86.18 16.87 49.31 78.87 104.38

Total Inc. from operations 1105.55 1166.37 1356.17 1135.05 1408.30 1726.37 2064.12

TOTAL EXPENDITURE 1039.99 1079.54 1246.17 1089.78 1326.76 1610.70 1917.57

EBITDA 65.56 86.83 110.00 45.27 81.54 115.67 146.55

Depreciation (19.78) (19.55) (23.82) (28.40) (32.23) (36.80) (42.17)

Goodwill amortization - - - - - - -

OTHER INCOME 8.79 6.21 4.15 3.11 3.12 2.22 3.01

Net financials

Interest income - - - - - - -

Interest expenses (5.82) (5.17) (6.18) (10.52) (14.88) (13.76) (13.29)

Net Financial Items (5.82) (5.17) (6.18) (10.52) (14.88) (13.76) (13.29)

Reported Pre-tax profit 48.75 68.32 84.15 9.46 37.55 67.32 94.09

Reported Tax charge (11.81) (17.16) (21.14) (0.96) (11.26) (20.20) (28.23)

Reported Net profit 36.94 51.16 63.01 8.50 26.28 47.13 65.86

Minorities - - - - - - -

P/L OF ASSOCIATE CO. - - - - - - -

36.94 51.16 63.01 8.5 26.28 47.13 65.86

Extra Ordinary income - - - - - - -

Dividend Paid (8.69) (11.58) (11.58) (2.17) (10.07) (9.43) (10.54)

Retained earnings 28.25 39.58 51.43 6.33 16.22 37.70 55.33

Reported EPS 25.51 35.33 43.52 5.87 18.15 32.55 45.49

Opening Balance 14.48 14.48 14.48 14.48 14.48 14.48 14.48

Issued - - - - - - -

Bought Back - - - - - - -

Closing Balance 14.48 14.48 14.48 14.48 14.48 14.48 14.48

FV 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00

Wtd. Avg. no. of shares 1.448 1.448 1.448 1.448 1.448 1.448 1.448

Note:- The figures shown in the brackets means NEGATIVE.

EBITDA

Misc.Inc (Exp.)

49.31

67.28

Rep. profit before othrinc.,

fin.cost,tax & excp. Item

Rep. profit before othrinc.,

fin.cost,tax & excp. Item

Depreciation

Particulars

Taxes

Interest Exp

Net Inc(Reg)

Rep Net Inc

Quarterly Results (` in cr except per share)

45.78

107.39

16.87

EPS

Rep. NP after min. Int.

EPS and Dividend

26.28 47.13 65.86Rep.Net Income after

extra ordinary items36.94

104.38 67.28 16.87

45.78

Extraord. Items

Net Sales

Op Income

EBT

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STOCK BROKERS LTD.

Income Statement and Estimates ( ` in Cr except per share)

78.87 49.31

52.43Profit from ordinary act. Before

Fin.Cost ,TAX & Exp.Items 54.57

86.18 78.87

Profit & Loss

104.38

Number Of Shares

63.0151.16

81.09

86.18

19.9890.3373.49

8.50

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201503 201603 201703 201803 2019E 2020E 2021E

Equity & Liabilities

Shareholders' Fund

Share Capital 14.48 14.48 14.48 14.48 14.48 14.48 14.48

Reserves and Surplus 288.42 325.65 389.32 383.58 399.80 437.50 492.82

- - - - - - -

Total Shareholders' Fund 302.9 340.13 403.8 398.06 414.28 451.98 507.30

Non-Current Liabilities

Long-term Borrowings - - 35.01 118.49 110.91 103.73 93.95

Other LT Liabilities 10.18 11.66 13.87 14.02 14.79 13.83 12.53

Deferred Tax Liability 2.57 5.6 5.24 2.78 3.20 3.68 4.23

Long term Provisions 45.19 47.8 46.75 45.62 50.18 55.20 60.72

Total Non-Current Liab. 57.94 65.06 100.87 180.91 179.08 176.44 171.43

Current Liabilities

Short term Borrowings 22.29 55.00 5.11 70.00 59.15 55.32 50.11

Trade Payables 200.34 171.93 190.71 211.82 229.55 252.05 305.49

Other current liability 52.38 55.49 68.81 109.13 119.71 136.38 154.81

Short term Provisions 39.23 39.08 16.05 16.74 18.41 20.26 22.28

Total current Liab. 314.24 321.5 280.68 407.69 426.82 464.01 532.69

Total Equity & Liab. 675.08 726.69 785.35 986.66 1020.18 1092.42 1211.42

Assets

Non-Current Assets

Fixed Assets

Tangible fixed Assets 164.48 211.39 293.53 399.89 428.22 474.28 543.57

G/W On Consolidation - - - - - - -

Non-current Investment - - - - - - -

Long term L&A 18.41 22.49 2.38 3.26 3.45 3.65 3.86

Other Non current Ass. 1.41 - 39.38 27.24 29.42 31.77 34.31

Deferred tax receiv. - - - - - - -

Total Non-Current Ass. 184.3 233.88 335.29 430.39 461.08 509.71 581.75

Current Assets

Current Investments - - - - - - -

Inventories 285.86 338.53 294.58 363.78 372.50 379.80 402.50

Trade Receivables 104.38 102.80 114.76 117.28 119.71 122.92 125.91

Cash & cash Equi. 87.75 36.14 7.63 21.96 16.44 20.06 33.84

Short Term L&A 7.84 13.02 0.70 1.06 1.15 1.26 1.37

Other current Assets 4.95 2.32 32.39 52.19 49.29 58.70 66.05

Total current Assets 490.78 492.81 450.06 556.27 559.09 582.73 629.67

Total Assets 675.08 726.69 785.35 986.66 1020.18 1092.42 1211.42

Cash & cash equivalents 87.75 36.14 7.63 21.96 16.44 20.06 33.84

Other int. bearing assets - - - - - - -

Interest-bearing debt 74.67 110.49 108.93 297.62 289.77 295.43 298.87

Net interest-bearing debt -13.08 74.35 101.3 275.66 273.32 275.38 265.03

Net gearing (%) - 21.86% 25.09% 69.25% 65.98% 60.93% 52.24%

Tangible assets

Gross capex (34.39) (67.04) (119.84) (99.69) (60.56) (82.87) (111.46)

Sale of fixed assets 0.06 - 0.01 0.10 - - -

Net capex (34.33) (67.04) (119.83) (99.59) (60.56) (82.87) (111.46)

Depreciation tangibles (19.78) (19.55) (23.82) (28.40) (32.23) (36.80) (42.17)

Note:- The figures shown in the brackets means NEGATIVE.

Minority Interests

BALANCE SHEET

RUDRA SHARES &

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Investments

Particulars

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201503 201603 201703 201803 2019E 2020E 2021E

Return on assets - 7.30% 8.33% 0.96% 2.62% 4.46% 5.72%

Return on equity - 15.91% 16.94% 2.12% 6.47% 10.88% 13.73%

ROCE - 15.14% 16.02% 2.47% 6.44% 10.00% 12.61%

EBIT Margin - 6.30% 6.66% 1.76% 3.72% 4.70% 5.20%

Pre tax margin - 5.86% 6.20% 0.83% 2.67% 3.90% 4.56%

Net Profit Margin - 4.39% 4.65% 0.75% 1.87% 2.73% 3.19%

Total asset turnover - 1.66 1.79 1.28 1.40 1.63 1.79

Fixed asset turnover - 6.21 5.37 3.27 3.40 3.83 4.06

Equity turnover - 3.63 3.65 2.83 3.47 3.99 4.30

Current Ratio - 1.53 1.60 1.36 1.31 1.26 1.18

Quick Ratio - 0.48 0.55 0.47 0.44 0.44 0.43

Cash Ratio - 0.11 0.03 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.06

Receivable Days - 32.42 29.28 37.31 30.71 25.65 22.00

Inventory Days - 105.56 92.72 110.25 101.28 85.24 74.45

Payable Days - 60.01 69.15 80.76 76.44 68.04 64.78

Conversion Cycle (Days) - 77.97 52.84 66.80 55.55 42.84 31.68

Financial Leverage Effect - 1.70 1.75 5.33 3.10 2.45 2.23

Debt to Capital - 0.25 0.21 0.43 0.41 0.40 0.37

Debt to Equity - 0.32 0.27 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.59

Note:- The figures shown in the brackets means NEGATIVE.

RATIO ANALYSIS

Particulars

RUDRA SHARES &

STOCK BROKERS LTD.

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Disclosures :

1) Business Activity :

2)

3)

4)

Sr. No. Yes/No

a) No

b) No

c) No

5)

Sr. No. Yes/No

a) No

b) No

c) No

6) Other Disclosures:

Yes/No

Sr. No.

a) No

b) No

c) No

Rudra or its associates have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject

company or third party in connection with the research report .

Rudra or its research analysts, or his/her relative or associates have actual/beneficial

ownership of one per cent or more securities of the subject company.

Disciplinary History :

Disclosures

The research analyst has served as an officer,director,employee of the subject company.

Rudra or its research analyst has been engaged in market making activity for the subject

company.

Rudra or its or associates have received any compensation from the subject company in the

past twelve months.

Rudra or its research analysts, or his/her relative or associate has any other material

conflict of interest at time of publication of the research report.

Terms & Conditions of issuance of Research Report:

Rudra or its research analysts, or his/her relative or associate has any direct or indirect

financial interest in the subject company.

Disclosures with regard to ownership and material conflicts of interest :

Disclosures

Rudra Shares & Stock Brokers Limited is engaged in the business of providing broking services & distribution of

various financial products. RUDRA is also registered as a Research Analyst under SEBI(Research Analyst) Regulations,

2014. SEBI Reg. No. INH100002524.

Disclosures & Disclaimers

Rudra or its associates have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the

subject in the past twelve months.

Disclosures

Rudra or its associates have received any compensation from the subject company in the

past twelve months.

RUDRA SHARES &

STOCK BROKERS LTD.

The Research report is issued to the registered clients. The Research Report is based on the facts, figures and

information that are considered true, correct and reliable. The information is obtained from publicly available media

or other sources believed to be reliable. The report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not

constitute an offer document or solicitation to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments for

clients.

There has been no instance of any Disciplinary action, penalty etc. levied/passed by any regulation/administrative

agencies against RUDRA and its Directors. Pursuant to SEBI inspection of books and records of Rudra, as a Stock

Broker, SEBI has not issued any Administrative warning to Rudra.

Disclosures with regard to receipt of compensation :

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RUDRA SHARES & STOCK BROKERS LTD.

Phone: +91 – 512 – 67011001

Disclaimers:

This Research Report (hereinafter called report) has been prepared and presented by RUDRA SHARES & STOCK BROKERS

LIMITED, which does not constitute any offer or advice to sell or does solicitation to buy any securities. The information presented in

this report, are for the intended recipients only. Further, the intended recipients are advised to exercise restraint in placing any

dependence on this report, as the sender, Rudra Shares & Stock Brokers Limited, neither guarantees the accuracy of any information

contained herein nor assumes any responsibility in relation to losses arising from the errors of fact, opinion or the dependence placed

on the same.

Despite the information in this document has been previewed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data , personal

views of the research analyst(s)and other reliable sources, believed to be true, we do not represent it as accurate, complete or

exhaustive. It should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Besides this, the research analyst(s) are

bound by stringent internal regulations and legal and statutory requirements of the Securities and Exchange Board of India( SEBI)

and the analysts' compensation was, is, or will be not directly or indirectly related with the other companies and/or entities of Rudra

Shares & Stock Brokers Ltd and have no bearing whatsoever on any recommendation, that they have given in the research report.

Rudra Shares & Stock Brokers Ltd or any of its affiliates/group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any such loss or

damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Rudra Shares & Stock

Brokers Ltd has not independently verified all the information, which has been obtained by the company for analysis purpose, from

publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. Accordingly, we neither testify nor make any representation or

warranty, express or implied, of the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. Rudra Share & Stock Brokers Ltd

and its affiliates are engaged in investment advisory, stock broking, retail & HNI and other financial services. Details of affiliates are

available on our website i.e. www.rudrashares.com.

We hereby declare, that the information herein may change any time due to the volatile market conditions, therefore, it is advised to

use own discretion and judgment while entering into any transactions, whatsoever.

Individuals employed as research analyst by Rudra Shares & Stock Brokers Ltd or their associates are not allowed to deal or trade in

securities, within thirty days before and five days after the publication of a research report as prescribed under SEBI Research

Analyst Regulations.

Subject to the restrictions mentioned in above paragraph, we and our affiliates, officers, directors, employees and their relative may:

(a) from time to time, have long or short positions acting as a principal in, and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof, of

Company mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or profits.

RUDRA SHARES &

STOCK BROKERS LTD.

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