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Fund Manager Selection in Emerging Markets

by Erik L van Dijk, LMG Emerge

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Table of contents

Alpha Generation and Portfolio Optimization: Selecting EM/FM Managers

Introduction: The World Has Changed

A New Balance of Power in International Capital Markets

EM and FM: Not a one-size-fits-all bloc

Man Selection 1: The Benefits of Local Knowledge

1

2

3

4

5Man Selection 3: Combining Managers

Evaluation

6

7

Man Selection 2: Manager Due Diligence and Monitoring

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1.1 Introduction: The World Has Changed I

Up until the 1990s Emerging Markets as a group did not really outperform developed markets in a structural manner- True, there were great periods and individual countries with strong

developments, but sooner or later negative surprises in combination with excess volatility / risk would cause disappointments

But since the beginning of this century things seem to be different, with the BRIC nations developing into a true global growth catalyst.

This has also positively affected growth in other Emerging and Frontier Nations (compare for instance GSAM‘s Next-11 concept)

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1.2 Introduction: The World Has Changed II

When looking at the available production factors, we see that:

1) Situation in Developed Nations has deteriorated2) Situation in Emerging Countries has grown better3) Globalization works as a catalyst for this trend4) Energy situation is most worrisome when comparing prod.

factors

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2.1 A New Balance of Power in International Capital Markets

Globalization , ‘Securitization’, Demographics, Geopolitical Factors and Diversification have changed the balance of power in international capital markets

- Relative financial advantage of Developed Nations at the government level has deteriorated

- Larger role for institutional investors and sovereign wealth funds- Growing interest in foreign direct investments and cross-border portfolio

investments- Reduced dependence of Emerging Nations on loans from banks- Dambisa Moyo & Muhamad Yunus/Micro Finance Movement: Economic Support

instead of (Dead) Aid- And let’s not forget: to a large extent it is mean-reversion back to a situation

similar to the one before the Industrial Revolution!

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2.2a The ‘Old World’ of the Large Institutional Investors

Based on market values of investable assets

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2.2b The New ‘Three Bloc World’

Distribution of Global Wealth based on GDP

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2.3a Institutional Investors: Almost USD 20 trillion available

Institutional Investors

Western Pension Plans still dominate

But Sovereign Wealth Funds grow faster

Demographics work against Pension Plans

LT Goals of SWFs give them the opportunity to achieve higher growth rates

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2.3b Institutional Investors: SWF’s mainly an EM phenomenon

Sov Wealth Funds

Asia and Middle East dominate

Energy Wealth and Excess Economic Growth

SWF’s Oil and Gas related Wealth = 60 percent; other 40 percent

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2.3c The World’s Largest SWFs

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2.4a Total Returns ($) 2001-2011 – Developed Markets

• Relatively poor 10-year period, with a disastrous 2008-2011

• Larger firms most affected

• The US ‘sneezing’ but Europe very ill.

• Small-caps did reasonably well.

• ‘Financials’ explain a large part of the problems in Developed Markets (see Sector chart 2.4c)

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2.4b Total Returns ($) 2001-2011 – Emerging Markets

• Contrary to Developed Markets, EMs doing well

• Recovery after GFC

• Small firm premium much less clear and stable

• But do not refrain from small-caps since the pool of small-cap stocks contains a substantial part of overall liquidity

• After such a strong period overheating? Expand universe to include Frontier Markets

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2.4c Total Returns ($) 2001-2011 – Sectoral Analysis

• The story of the decade is the demise of the business model of Developed Markets financials

• EM’s outperform in all sectors. Playing the small-cap ‘game’ important but more complicated in EM space

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2.5 Trends in Money Flows

Within the new three-bloc world order we can expect the following trends:- Structural – but volatile - long-term inflow of portfolio investment capital into EM

and FM countries- Structural – but less volatile – growth in Foreign Direct Investments in EM and

FM countries- Tensions when large EM and FM corporations and investors want to expand in

Developed Countries- Geopolitical nervousness- Within EM and FM shifts (= changing comparative advantages)

Commodity Producers versus Consumers

Development of the Financial Services Sector

Development of Domestic Consumer Markets

‘Africa Middle East’? And ‘Asia from Emerging to Developed?’

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3.1 EM and FM: Not a one-size-fits-all bloc

We often talk in detail about differences between Developed Markets, but then proceed talking about EM/FM as if it is a homogeneous bloc.

This is wrong!

1. Enormous wealth differences

2. Commodity-rich versus commodity-poor (see Energy example 3.2)

3. Huge differences in legal and political systems

4. Diversified in terms of level of integration with world economy

5. Average growth level of GDP high, but large differences exist

6. Differences in quality infrastructure (including financial and/or legal!) are large

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3.2 Energy Winners vs Losers: Important distinguishing factor in the 2011-2021 decade

• Ideas to remove RUS from BRIC do totally forget the energy situation; if anything we have to worry about BRA first.

• Developed nations in Europe and Japan most endangered• Energy Risk in EM’s less of a problem than in Developed Markets• Increased investments in Renewable Energy and Nuclear Energy a

MUST for many countries

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3.3 EM/FM and Style Investing

Some core observations and their impact on our ‘standard’ EM/FM investment approach:

1. International investors used to allocate to international specialists and not local providers.

2. This leads to excess interest in large-caps

3. Markets are still treated as extremely risky as a result of which there is too large an interest in ‘excellent’ historical performance charts

4. Panics and re-allocations internationally lead to in- and out-flow rhythm that causes disappointing performance

5. Local specialists are available, but you need to look for them. Big consultants are often way too reluctant allocating to these parties.

6. The more ‘growth’ an economy already is, the more interesting its ‘value’ stocks

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3.4 EM/FM : How to incorporate Style

How ‘Style’ can be incorporated ‘the local investment specialist’ way:

Key: Don’t follow the main crowd.

The more inefficient a market, the less valuable the information content of what the main crowd is doing.

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4.1 Man Selection 1: Benefits of Local Knowledge

Emerging Markets are characterized by Inefficiencies- Active, bottom-up management adds value- Top-down added value from asset allocation skills and manager selection

Emerging Markets are not one homogeneous group of nations- Local presence adds value- Strategic partnerships

LMG: Create a win-win situation for local asset management partners, major institutional partners and clients- Better return/risk ratios- Entry to Western Institutional Markets for local strategic partners- Prestigious seal of approval for local strategic partners

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Initial Meeting

Questionnaire & Holdings Analysis

On Site Due Diligence

Manager Assessment

Scoring

On Going Monitoring & Due Diligence

4.2 Man Selection 1: Finding the right Manager

20

DDQ:

35 Attributes and scoring

Quant Filter:

using our GTAA system as screening

device

Expected Alpha by manager

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4.3 Man Selection 1: The Manager Selection Cycle

Step 1Step 1 Step 2Step 2 Step 3Step 3 Step 4Step 4 Step 5Step 5

Ongoing Update and Analysis of Universe of about 1,000 asset managers with EM and FM products

The Manager Selection Cycle

Due diligence to find the 25-50 Best-of-Breed product candidates

Ongoing learning by doing;

Performance Analysis;

From Green to Yellow to Red;

Replacement Strategy and back to Step 1/2

Derivation of a short-list of about 100 managers based on quantitative and qualitative analysis

Analyze the selected managers separately and in combination;

F-of-F fund creation;

Derivation of portfolio weightsIncludes 300-400

local managers

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4.4 Man Selection 1: Structured Grading System

Analysis of Manager Performance based on

Peer Group comparison using Bottom-up

Databases (Camradata, LMG, Morningstar)

Client input/veto’s;

Other relevant information, including

‘Manager Cycle’ information, Tenure

information etc.

Analysis of Manager Performance based on relevant Market Trends using the LMG Asset Allocation Framework

Analyse Manager’s Performance vis-à-vis expectations in terms of Return-Risk profile; qualitative factors etc.; i.e. Risk Management Focus

Derivation of the Green, Yellow and Red Cards – Signal Focus

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4.5 Man Selection 1: Independent Judgment

- The Green, Yellow and Red Cards

LMG RefLMG decides in an independent, quant-qual decision process

The best managers are selected

Performance is monitored

and analyzed

We say goodbye when we have to say goodbye

Timely warnings before performance turns mediocre

Backbone Partnersenable tough stand

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5.1 Man Selection 2: Due Diligence and Monitoring

Due Diligence and Monitoring

1. There are definitely enough local and regional providers with interesting performance

2. Don’t overweigh the value of the old focus on long track records and low tracking errors

3. But make sure to go through a tight due diligence and monitoring regime in which you require them to comply with YOUR rules

4. No compliance? Resistance? Don’t use the manager

5. Be surprised to find out that willingness to comply is far higher than what you might have expected

6. If necessary, require tailor-made solutions and segregated mandates

7. Tight monitoring necessary

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5.2 Man Selection 2: Due Diligence and Monitoring II

Top-down asset allocation and country selection of AIM links five regions / 10 strategic markets

- Concept encompasses the selection of strategic partners per region.- Strategic partners have to be best-of-breed in at least two asset classes within

their region- Output / regional market visions of strategic partners incorporated as signals in

our global GTAA approach

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6.1 Man Selection 3: Multi-Manager

Global ‘Usual Suspects’ or Multi-Manager

1. Based on LMG’s proprietary database with manager information about some 1,000 managers (of which about 300 locals) we know that there are not many local providers with outside-of-their-region best-of-breed products

2. Local managers do however invest differently (bigger focus on smaller securities and out-of-index investments)

3. The style difference and good performance make best-of-breed local providers an interesting alternative for ‘usual suspects’ or at least a nice diversifier

4. Top-down layer to combine these local players has to be added

5. The extra cost layer is more than manageable because the bulk of best-of-breed local providers is willing to cut fees so as to get the prestigious Western client in

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6.2 Man Selection 3: How to Integrate Top-Down and Bottom-Up?

EM and FM: Now large enough to be a separate component within asset class mandates. Not just in allocation of mandates, but also ALM.

Bottom-up financial information often less reliable (information scarcity): Integrate top-down and bottom-up with top-down being an important constraint. No excitement about bottom-up stories when they are not more than corroborated by top-down outlook

EM and FM more important in the world? Pay special attention to EM-FM sensitivity of Western Firms:- Indirect way of investing in EM-FM wasn’t a good way of capturing the EM-FM

component so far, but things are rapidly changing- Theme plays (E.g. ‘’Water’’, ‘’Energy’’, ‘’Food/Agriculture’’, ‘Rising Middle

Classes in EM-FM’’, ‘’Islamic Finance’’)

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6.3 Man Selection 3: F-of-F Solution in EM Space

Operational Management of the Fund-of-Fund structure

Performance Analysis and Reporting

Marketing of the Best-of-Breed Concept

The Fund-of-Fund Structure

FundManagement

Macro SignalsAsset Allocation

Risk Management

Translate Macro Information into the right Within-Fund Manager Mix

Manage the Global EM Portfolio

Balanced Mandates using PROTECTOR

Selection of Managers

Cooperation with Bottom-Up Best-of-Breed Partners

Derivation of our Managers’ Macro Signals

Selected Managers within Funds

Regional, Asset Class and/or Theme Mandates

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6.4 Man Selection 3: Risk

EM – FM: Take care of Risk factor- Beta and Volatility normally higher- More sensitive to changes or surprises in earnings, risk and other fundamental

variables (see next sheet 6.5)- Lower correlations but globalization and behavior of foreign investors in large

caps have led to diminished value of the correlation factor- Non-normal distributions: Kurtosis and Skewness are far more important than in

developed markets- Create a robust, diversified portfolio: transaction costs are often higher and

liquidity lower. When you are wrong, there is not much to do but sit and wait.But know that the real GM’s do often make their biggest profits during that sitting and

waiting period when panic of others provides them with buying opportunities

- Beware of Index Biases: a lot of liquidity can be found in the small cap segments of local markets outside of the index universe.

- Don’t overestimate the value of a reasonably low tracking error at the manager level

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6.5 Man Selection 3: Be Aware of Excess Sensitivity to Surprises

An example: Excess Sensitivity to Surprises:- Using the Gordon-Shapiro Dividend Discount Model to Derive a Representative

Result:

BASE DATA EXAMPLE

AND SEE HOW SURPRISES IN KEY VARIABLES CAN CHANGE RESULTS

Source: LMG Emerge, sensitivies calculated as per granular change in key variable. Paper available by request.

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6.6 Man Selection 3: Portfolio construction

+

BroadOpportunity Set

β

Portfolio Construction

Risk management (VaR, MVaR, Correlation, Conditional Regressions, Political Risk etc.)

Hedging strategies

Optimisation based on risk budget

Diversification =Consistently strong risk

adjusted returns

EquityFixed incomeCommodities

Listed propertyCurrencyListed private equity

Skill

α

External Manager (Mandate permitting)

Asset AllocationArbitrage

Excess Return Set

Risk Management

RegionsAsset Classes

Style

+

Investment Vehicles

Outcome

31

Constraint-based ‘’Near-Optimization’’

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7.1 Evaluation – EM/FM, The Market

The Importance of EM-FM is growing and this trend will continue

These markets are more inefficient for quite some time to come, with current behavior of large foreign investors leaving a lot of alpha to be captured

Dare to think ‘out-of-today’s-box’: ‘Value’, ‘Overreaction’, Small- and Mid Cap with Top-Down Market-Related factors as constraints

Diversify, taking into account risks and excess sensitivity to surprises

Diversification should not just include direct allocations to EM and FM, but Theme Play provides the investor with interesting additional opportunities to optimize his overall performance

Don’t forget Local Asset Managers! They are there!

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7.2 Evaluation – EM/FM, The Managers

Emerging Markets are still relatively inefficient. The difference between ‘good’ and ‘mediocre’ asset managers is large

Top managers/specialists are often relatively small. LMG’s approach, systems and databases help create a portfolio of Best-of-Breed managers

The creation of a Fund-of-Fund based concept for this asset class makes sense business-wise.

However, most local players have only regional skills. An active asset allocation (AIM LMG) including Themes bloc is essential.

The ‘top-level’ Global best-of-breed managers will not disappear, but with their focus on large-cap they play a different game

If your size allows: use both approaches!

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Contact/Questions

LMG Emerge

Zeist, The Netherlands- Erik L van Dijk, principal- Email: erik.vandijk@lmg-emerge.com- Tel direct: +31 6 155 86 109- Tel office: +31 30 695 3828

- Website: http://www.lmg-emerge.com- FB Page: http://www.facebook.com/NewEconomies- Blog: http://tigersandfrontiers.blogspot.com