Fuels Used in Electricity Generation
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Transcript of Fuels Used in Electricity Generation
www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
Fuels Used in Electricity Generation
ForU.S. Nuclear Infrastructure CouncilJune 05, 2013 | Washington, DC
By Adam Sieminski, Administrator
Over time the electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in natural gas and renewable generation
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U.S. electricity net generationtrillion kilowatthours
25%
19%
42%
13%
1%
Nuclear
Oil and other liquids
Natural gas
Coal
Renewables
2011 ProjectionsHistory
17%
16%
35%
30%
1%
1993
53%
13%
19%
11%
4%
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013
Adam Sieminski, USNIC June 05, 2013
Key results from the AEO2013 reference case relating to the electric power sector
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• While coal still remains the largest single source of U.S. electricity generation, it’s role declines as natural gas and renewables pick up increasing market share
• Natural gas production is higher throughout the reference case projection than it was in AEO2012, serving the industrial and power sectors and an expanding export market
• Role of nuclear power in the U.S. generation mix stays relatively steady
• The U.S. becomes a larger exporter of natural gas and coal than was projected in the AEO2012 reference case
• U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions remain more than five percent below their 2005 level through 2040, reflecting increased efficiency and the shift to a less carbon-intensive fuel mix
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• Changing policies and regulations
• Changing consumer preferences
• Faster / slower economic growth
• Faster / slower technological progress
• Different relative fuel prices
• Technological breakthroughs
Electricity demand: growth in electricity use slows, but still increases by 28% from 2012 to 2040
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percent growth (3-year compounded annual growth rate)
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013
History Projections
2011
Electricity Use
GDP 2.4%
0.9%
2011 – 2040
average
Natural gas and coal prices: coal regains competitive advantage relative to natural gas over time on a national average basis
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ratio of natural gas price to steam coal price
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013
History Projections
2011 2011 dollars per BtuHistory Projections2011
Competitive parity
Energy prices to the electric power sector
Coal
Natural gas
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Domestic production of shale gas has grown dramatically over the past few years
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shale gas production (dry)billion cubic feet per day
Sources: LCI Energy Insight gross withdrawal estimates as of April 2013 and converted to dry production estimates with EIA-calculated average gross-to-dry shrinkage factors by state and/or shale play.
New power plant costs: levelized cost of electricity
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costs for new U.S. electricity power plants in 20182011 dollars per megawatthour
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013
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The fuel mix for electricity generation varies widely across U.S. regions (2011)
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013, based on Form EIA-923
National Average Minimum Maximum
Coal 42% 0% 80%
Natural Gas 25% 2% 87%
Nuclear 19% 0% 41%
Renewables 13% 1% 65%
Oil / Other 1% 0% 5%
Share of Generation by Fuel, 2011
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The projected fuel mix for electricity generation by region (2040)
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013
National Average Minimum Maximum
Coal 35% 0% 69%
Natural Gas 30% 2% 81%
Nuclear 17% 0% 36%
Renewables 16% 1% 53%
Oil / Other 1% 0% 2%
Share of Generation by Fuel, 2040
Additions to electricity generation capacity, 1985-2040
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U.S. electricity generation capacity additionsgigawatts
Source: EIA Form 860 & EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013
Changes in nuclear capacity for the AEO2013 reference case
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gigawatts
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013
Nuclear relevant side cases in AEO2013
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• High/low nuclear
• High/low oil and gas resource
• Small modular reactors (SMRs) ???
• CO2 fee cases
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capacity additionsgigawatts
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013
Planned Unplanned
Nuclear capacity additions in AEO2013 vary under different assumptions
If natural gas prices stay low, coal is permanently displaced as the leading generation source in the near future
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billion kilowatthours
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013
Coal
Natural Gas
Reference
High Oil and Natural Gas Resource
Projections
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capacitygigawatts
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013
Coal
Oil/gas steamNatural gas combined cycle
NuclearNatural gas combustion turbine
Renewable/other
2040
Power sector electricity generation capacity by fuel in five cases, 2011 and 2040
Small Modular Reactors (SMR)
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• SMR technology differs from traditional, large-scale light-water reactor technology in both reactor size and plant scalability
• EIA conducted a side case to evaluate the effect of a shorter construction period on future nuclear capacity expansion
• The case showed that there are potential cost saving from the shorter construction periods but uncertainty about potential future operations costs remains.
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Changing electricity generation mix in AEO2013 reference case and carbon fee allowance side casesU.S. electricity net generationtrillion kilowatthours
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013
2013 Reference Case
Natural gas
Renewables
Nuclear
Coal
2011
24%
13%
19%
42%
30%
16%
17%
35%
Natural gas
$15 Carbon Fee
Renewables
Nuclear
Coal
34%
22%
27%
16%
$25 Carbon Fee
Natural gas
Renewables
Nuclear
Coal
34%
23%
38%
4%
U.S. dependence on imported liquids depends on both supply and demand
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U.S. liquid fuel supplymillion barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 and Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2013
Consumption
Domestic supply
Net imports
37%
ProjectionsHistory
Petroleum Exports
-8%
32% STEO forecast for 2014
2014
40%
2012
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Keynote Speakers
Dr. Ernest J. MonizU.S. Secretary of Energy
Lisa MurkowskiUnited States Senator
Alaska
Thomas FanningChairman, President and CEO
Southern Company
Aldo Flores-QuirogaSecretary GeneralInternational Energy Forum
Hans RoslingChairmanGapminder
EIA.gov
For more information
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U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo
Today In Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly
Annual Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual