FTTH Council Europe Panorama & Forecast · 2019-03-12 · FTTH Council Europe –Panorama &...

FTTH Council Europe – Panorama & ForecastMarket at September 2018 & Forecast by 2020 & 2025

FTTH Council Europe Conference – March 14th 2019 - Amsterdam

Roland Montagne

Principal Analyst

+33 6 80 85 04 80

[email protected]

AgendaAgenda

1. Study Background

2. General overview and main trends

3. Leading countries

4. European Ranking

5. Conclusion – Key outputs – Global Ranking

6. FTTH Forecast for Eueope

Study Background01

Methodology

ACTIONS

Results

▪ Mission on behalf of the FTTH Council Europe – 17th edition

▪ Provide a complete summary of the status of FTTH/B in Europe at Sept. 2018

Bottom-up methodology

Scope

• Analysis of 39 countries

• Data per player for FTTH/B and other fibre-based architectures

• Key parameters study: technical, financial, business model, figures

• Desk research

• Direct contacts with leading players and IDATE partners within countries

• Information exchange with FTTH Council Europe members

• Both quantitative and qualitative data

• Market status in the country

• Strategic approach of involved players

Methodology

General overview and main trends02

As at September 2018 in EU39*:

▪ 59.6 million FTTH/B subscribers

▪ Almost 160 million FTTH/B Homes Passed

FTTH/B figures as at September 2018

>x4

>x6Subscriber evolution

Homes Passed evolutionFTTH Council Europe scope at September 2018

Coverage rateEU28 : 36.4%EU39 : 46.4%

Take-up rateEU28 : 38.2%EU39 : 37.4%

(1) EU39 = EU28 (excl. Cyprus) + 4 CIS countries + Andorra, Iceland, Israel, Macedonia, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland, Turkey

(2) Cyprus was replaced by Macedonia at end-2012 because the FTTH/B market is much more developed in this country.

Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE

FTTH/B figures as at September 2018

EU28 countries

Covered

countries in

FTTH Panorama

11 16 20

3136

4552

60

42

64

77

108

126

140 149

160

September2010

September2012

September2013

September2014

September2015

September2016

September2017

September2018

Subscribers Homes Passed

FTTH/B market evolution in terms of Homes passed and Subscribers

(EU39)

39

countries

covered

Historical data and growing trends (EU28 / EU39)

Evolution of FTTH/B Subscribers (million)Comparison EU28 / EU39

▪ EU28 has a stronger position in the whole European region

▪ By Sept. 2018, half of FTTH/B deployments are performed inside of the EU28 countries, an increasing trend along the previous years


Evolution of FTTH/B Homes Passed (million)Comparison EU28 / EU39

Historical data and growing trends (EU28 / EU39)

45

6 8

1215

2024

30

711

1620

31

36

45

52

60

December2010

December2011

December2012

December2013

December2014

September2015

September2016

September2017

September2018

Total EU28 Total EU39

1523

3036

5157

6773

81

29

42

64

77

108

126

140149

160

December2010

December2011

December2012

December2013

December2014

September2015

September2016

September2017

September2018


Incumbents are taking a growing role in FTTH/B Initiatives

▪ Analysis of around 400 FTTH/B projects in EU39 at September 2018

▪ Around 55% of total Homes in the region have been passed by Alternative ISPs, and approx. 41% by incumbents (as compared to21% by incumbents in 2011)

▪ Municipalities/Local Authorities, along with utilities when appropriate, will remain those ones that will help ensure an exhaustivecoverage at term

41%

55%

4%

Breakdown of FTTH/B Sockets deployed by type of player (%)Data comparison between Dec. 2011 and Sept. 2018

21%

71%

8%

September 2018December 2011

Top European countries – Breakdown in terms of Sockets deployed

Russia1

Spain2

France3

Ukraine4

Total Sockets deployed: 71,435,000✓ Incumbents: 33,200,000✓ Alternative ISPs: 38,235,000

Total Sockets deployed: 43,234,160✓ Incumbents: 20,800,000✓ Alternative ISPs: 22,375,000✓ Municip./Utilities: 59,160

Total Sockets deployed: 39,201,000✓ Incumbents: 10,906,000✓ Alternative ISPs: 26,565,000✓ Municip./Utilities: 1,730,000

Total Sockets deployed: 10,765,000✓ Alternative ISPs: 10,765,000


5Romania

Total Sockets deployed: 9,124,750✓ Incumbents: 2,107,000✓ Alternative ISPs: 7,017,750

Incumbents are taking a growing role in FTTH/B Initiatives

Leading countries03

General Ranking: FTTH/B Homes passed

European ranking in terms of FTTH/B Homes passed over time (in million homes)Data comparison between Sept. 2015 and Sept. 2018 Top 5 annual growth rates – Homes passed (in %)

Data from Sept. 2017 to Sept. 2018

+ 43.1 %

+ 40.5 %

+ 22.8 %

+ 17.4 %

+ 15.1 %

Italy

Poland

UK

Portugal

Germany0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Mill

ions

Sept. 2015 Sept. 2016 Sept. 2017 Sept. 2018


17 countries

with more than

2m. HP

EU28 : 11

countries in the

Ranking

General Ranking: FTTH/B Sockets deployed*

European ranking in terms of FTTH/B Sockets deployed (in million homes)Data comparison between Sept. 2015 and Sept. 2018

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Mill

ion

s


18 countries with more than 2m. Optical sockets

*Total amount of FTTH/B optical sockets deployed by each player in a

country (may be higher than Homes Passed when homes are coveredby several players). Might lead to overlap situations

Top 5 annual growth rates – Sockets deployed (%)Data from Sept. 2017 to Sept. 2018

+ 77 %

+ 40.5 %

+ 36.9 %

+ 26.2 %

+ 22.8 %

Italy

Poland

France

Spain

UK

EU28 : 12 countries in the

Ranking


General Ranking: FTTH/B Coverage

FTTH/B coverage > 90%

FTTH/B coverage 70 – 90 %

FTTH/B coverage 50 – 70 %

FTTH/B coverage < 50 %

FTTH/B coverage* as at September 2018(* Homes passed / Households)

Coverage rate

EU28 : 36.4%EU39 : 46.4%

Andorra

99.9%

99.2%

Portugal

Spain

97.8%

Sweden

Bulgaria

Lithuania

Latvia

95.4%

96.4%

91%

91%


General Ranking: FTTH/B SubscribersGeneral Ranking: FTTH/B Subscribers

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000


+ 83.2 %

UK

+ 72.5 %

Italy

+ 36 %Poland

+ 35.1 %

France

+ 30.7 %

Spain

European ranking in terms of FTTH/B Subscriptions (million)Data comparison between Sept. 2015 and Sept. 2018

General Ranking: FTTH/B Take-up

FTTH/B take-up > 50%

FTTH/B take-up 30 – 40 %

FTTH/B take-up < 30 %


FTTH/B take-up 40 – 50 %

Take-up rateEU28 : 38.2%EU39 : 37.4%

Belarus

64.5%

FTTH/B take-up* as at September 2018(*Subscriptions / Homes Passed)

Andorra

61.4%

Romania

52.2%

Latvia

51.5%

51.2%Belgium

Netherlands

52.6%

European Ranking04

European Ranking as at September 2018

▪ Includes countries of +200k Households in which FTTH/B subscribers represent at least 1% of total households

▪ Eastern Europe and Nordic countries are among the top of penetration ranks, mainly due to a proactive state intervention towards fibre expansion

▪ Some major European countries are lagging behind (except. Spain and Portugal) due to a predominance of copper-based technologies (VDSL, G.Fast) and/or cable networks (DOCSIS 3.0 / 3.1)

Penetration rates of European countries at September 2018(FTTH/B Subscriptions / Households)

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%

United Kingdom

Austria

Croatia

Serbia

Germany

Ireland

Italy

Poland

Switzerland

Ukraine

Turkey

Macedonia

EU28

Czech Republic

Kazakhstan

Hungary

Denmark

Luxembourg

France

Netherlands

Slovenia

Slovakia

Finland

Estonia

Bulgaria

Russia

Norway

Portugal

Romania

Belarus

Sweden

Spain

Lithuania

Latvia

FTTH subscribers

FTTB subscribers

UK is entering the

Ranking by Sept.

2018

Penetration rate

EU28 : 13.9%

Key Conclusions05

Key outputs

Public involvement

• Public-private initiatives are the key trend of 2018: more and more involvements from publicauthorities (via subsidies and an adequate policy framework) to promote fibre expansionthroughout their country

• Progressive move towards fibre expansion in hard-to-reach areas: urban dense areas are wellcovered by fibre networks in Europe, the focus for public & private actors is now on remote areas.How to promote high-speed broadband access in these isolated areas?

• Pent Up Demand becoming clear: Seeing large pent up demand (high connection rates) in regionsnow just beginning large FTTH rollouts (UK / Italy)

• EU28 is Mobilizing for FTTH/B: EU28 now catching up and surpassing the growth trends seen acrossthe larger EU39

• EU39 region has reached almost 160 million homes with FTTH/B networks, representing a coverageof 46.4% of the total Homes

• Countries like Italy, Poland and UK have experienced strong growth, increasing their homes passedby more than 20%, as well as their subscribers by more than 36%

Regional Recap

Italy Poland UK

+ 43.1 % + 40.5 % + 22.8 %+ 83.2 %+ 72.5 % + 36 %

Subscribers Homes Passed Subscribers Homes Passed Subscribers Homes Passed

Global Ranking(*) at Sept. 2018 – Mature markets

FTTH/B Penetration rates worldwide at September 2018(FTTH/B Subscriptions / Households)

GCC and APAC countries leading the ranking

(*) Includes countries of +200k Households in which FTTH/B subscribers represent at least 1% of total households

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%

Bulgaria

Russia

Norway

Portugal

Romania

Belarus

Vietnam

Sweden

Spain

Lithuania

Taiwan

Latvia

Uruguay

New Zealand

Mauritius

Japan

Hong Kong

South Korea

China

Singapore

Qatar

UAE

FTTH subscribers

FTTB subscribers

Global Ranking (*) at Sept. 2018 –Less than 30% penetration

Some European countries still lagging behind

*Includes countries of +200k Households in which FTTH/B subscribers represent at least 1% of total households

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%

Jordan

United Kingdom

Austria

Croatia

Serbia

Angola

Germany

Colombia

Argentina

Ireland

Italy

Brazil

Puerto Rico

South Africa

Poland

Kuwait

Switzerland

Chile

Oman

Ukraine

Turkey

Macedonia

Canada

United States

Ecuador

Saudi Arabia

Mexico

Czech Republic

Kazakhstan

Australia

Hungary

Jamaica

Denmark

Trinidad and Tobago

Luxembourg

France

Netherlands

Malaysia

Slovenia

Slovakia

Finland

Estonia

FTTH subscribers

FTTB subscribers

FTTH Forecast for Europe06

FTTH/B figures as at September 2018Forecast study – Factors taken into account

• Strategic plans from telecom players towards high-speed broadband enhancement

• Willingness to provide public funds

• Municipality/utility players can accelerate fibre development in remote areas, where private operators don’t have any incentives to deploy

• Impact of cable operators switching to FTTH/B to gain market advantages

• Impact of mobile broadband enhancement

• Green-field housing and systematic deployment of FTTH in any new build housing

Supply criteria

• Impact of infrastructure costs

• Impact of copper-based DSL improvements with new emerging variants, such as G.Fast.

• Impact of cable-based networks with DOCSIS 3.1

• Regulatory changes at European and national level to create a common commitment to FTTH

• Impact of macroeconomic environment and economical trends

Others

• Broadband services take-up since average speeds continue to rise for households

• Data consumption keeps growing due to an intensive use of video content, high-definition streaming which demand high bandwidth capacity

• People in rural areas still not covered by high-speed connections would like to be connected to NGN

Demand criteria

Historical data and growing trends (EU28 / EU39)Indicators affecting the FTTH adoptionPositive criteria

Regulatory framework and public incentives to promote FTTH deployments (ex. Gigabit Society targets set for 2025) 1

Governments have been revising their Digital Infrastructure strategy to focus on Fibre and 5G leading to higher availability of public funds dedicated to enhancing fibre-based networks2

Progressive switch-off for copper-based infrastructure and move towards FTTH networks3Data demands and video content continue to growth leading to higher bandwidth and lower latency needs (Resilience, symmetricity of Bandwidth)4

Both incumbents and alternative ISPs shifting their core business towards FTTH5Municipalities/Utilities pushing to expand fibre networks in remote areas where not always economically viable for private players6

Fibre densification driven by 5G deployment & cost savings from fibre-5G convergence7

Historical data and growing trends (EU28 / EU39)Indicators affecting the FTTH adoptionNegative impacts

Regulatory framework and public incentives to promote FTTH deployments (ex. Gigabit Society targets set for 2025) 1Copper-based DSL & Cable improvements with new emerging variants could delay FTTH enhancement1Potential risk of mobile 5G broadband technology delaying FTTH in economically non-viable areas2Deployment costs are still very high for FTTH technologies (however costs are following a downward trend YoY)3

Non-feasible business model for isolated areas4Some initiatives are facing administrative barriers that are delaying fibre expansion in areas not yet covered (right of ways)5

MethodologyForecast study – Individual analysis of 15 European countries

Top 15 countries by Homes passed as at Sept. 2018

EU39 countries covered in FTTH Panorama

Bulgaria

France

Germany

Italy

Kazakhstan

Netherlands

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Russia

Spain

Sweden

Turkey

Ukraine

UK

MethodologyEuropean FTTH/B Forecasts (2012-2025)

FTTH/B Subscribers Forecasts (million)Comparison EU28 / EU39


Evolution of FTTH/B Homes Passed (million)Comparison EU28 / EU39

6 812

1520

2430

3947

56

68

82

97

109

16 20

3136

4552

60

71

83

97

114

132

152

168

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025


30 3651 57

67 7381

92104

115130

144155

166

6477

108

126140

149160

174189

203

220237

250263

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025


European FTTH/B Forecasts (2012-2025)

FTTH/B Take-up Rates Forecasts (Subs over Homes Passed, in %)Comparison EU28 / EU39

20.3% 21.3%24.1%

26.4%

30.2%33.4%

37.0%

42.0%45.2%

49.0%

52.7%

57.1%

62.5%65.6%

25.7% 26.2%28.5% 28.9%

32.0%34.8%

37.4%40.7%

44.2%

48.0%51.8%

55.9%

60.6%63.8%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Subs / HP EU28 Subs / HP EU39

2019 should be a

turning point

MethodologyTop 15 Countries by FTTH/B Homes Passed in 2020 & 2025

European ranking in terms of FTTH/B Homes passed (in million homes)


2025 ForecastsEU28 : ~166m FTTH H.P.EU39 : ~263m FTTH H.P.

% Evolution 2018 / 2020

+2%

+33%

+0.5%

+11%

+81%

+27%

+184%

+12%

+62%

+5%

+44%

+4%

+40%

+12%

+3%

2020 Forecasts 2025 Forecasts% Evolution 2018

/ 2025

+6%

+858%

+81%

+230%

+551%

+2%

+86%

+24%

+169%

+29%

+112%

+9%

+11%

+35%

+6%

MethodologyTop 15 Countries by FTTH/B Subscribers in 2020 & 2025

European ranking in terms of FTTH/B Subscriptions (million)

2020 Forecasts


2025 ForecastsEU28 : ~109m FTTH Subs.EU39 : ~168m FTTH Subs.% Evolution 2018

/ 2020

+20%

2025 Forecasts

+33%

+63%

+31%

+47%

+90%

+43%

+171%

+50%

+67%

+74%

+118%

+306%

+48%

+22%

% Evolution 2018 / 2025

+78%

+5567%

+233%

+92%

+1006%

+760%

+190%

+237%

+82%

+261%

+527%

+170%

+96%

+202%

+73%

Top 15 Countries by Household penetration

European ranking in terms of Household penetration Subscriptions / Households (in %)

24.8%

28.2%

31.6%

33.2%

35.5%

42.5%

53.0%

61.2%

62.6%

69.9%

70.3%

71.7%

81.0%

83.2%

90.3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Germany

Turkey

Poland

Italy

Ukraine

Kazakhstan

Bulgaria

Russia

France

Netherlands

Romania

United Kingdom

Sweden

Spain

Portugal

Penetration forecast in 2025

EU28 : 46.2%EU39 : 44.7%

Penetration forecast in 2020

EU28 : 17.3%EU39 : 20.4%


2020 Forecasts 2025 Forecasts

FTTH / FTTB architecture

Positive FTTH evolution : Fibre closer to end-users by 2025

57.8%

42.2%

FTTH FTTB

2020 Forecasts

55.6%

44.4%

FTTH FTTB

FTTH/B at Sept. 2018

63.8%

36.2%

FTTH FTTB

2025 Forecasts


FTTH Architecture & Technology trends

FTTH / FTTB architecture

Positive FTTH evolution : Fibre closer to end-users by 2025

2020 ForecastsMDU / SDU ratio at

Sept. 2018

72.1%

27.9%

MDU SDU

70.6%

29.4%

MDU SDU

67.2%

32.8%

MDU SDU


2025 Forecasts

FTTH Architecture & Technology trends

MDU / SDU ratio

Evolution towards the delivery of individualized fibre services by 2025

Key conclusions

▪ Public incentives towards fibre-based technologies will accelerate FTTH growth throughout Europe

▪ Some major private players will be migrating from copper-based and cable-based architectures to full-fibre solutionsin the coming years (e.g. BT in UK / Deutsche Telekom in Germany). Certainly, these substantial investments will be akey enabler of growth.

▪ Delayed responses by incumbents have led to increased investment in alternative FTTH operators, triggeringaccelerated network builds by the incumbent (UK, Italy)

▪ More agreements to deploy FTTH services between private players, utilities companies and local authorities areevolving towards a convergent portfolio where different services can be provided using the same infrastructure(telecom services, smart cities solutions and utilities)

▪ Based on recent announcements, 5G will be a key factor for the promotion of fibre deployments and therefore, itwill boost investments from public and private players.

▪ Evolution from previous years have showed that cable-based and copper-based ISPs have started to diversify itscore technologies towards fibre. Certainly, many of these players have implemented full fibre solutions and it canbe appreciated that FTTH services are now part of its service portfolio.

1GROWTH

2BUSINESS

EVOLUTION

3TECHNO-

SYMBIOSIS

Key conclusions

Thank you for your attention!

www.ftthcouncil.eu

Roland Montagne

Principal Analyst

+33 6 80 85 04 80

[email protected]

FTTH Council Europe Panorama & Forecast · 2019-03-12 · FTTH Council Europe –Panorama &...

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Transcript of FTTH Council Europe Panorama & Forecast · 2019-03-12 · FTTH Council Europe –Panorama &...