FTA Skills Shortage Report Shortage report...An independent analysis of professional drivers and...

FTA Skills Shortage ReportAn independent analysis of professional drivers

and other job roles in the UK logistics sector

May 2018

Prepared for FTA by RepGraph Ltd

Skills Shortage May 2018 - Notices i

Section 0Notices

© 2018 REPGRAPH LIMITED. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of this document’s content, RepGraph accepts no responsibility for any loss or damages incurred through the use of its content.

ii FTA SKILLS SHORTAGE REPORT • MAY 2018

iii FTA SKILLS SHORTAGE REPORT • MAY 2018

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iv FTA SKILLS SHORTAGE REPORT • MAY 2018

Skills Shortage May 2018 - Contents iii

Contents

1 Report Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.1 LGV Drivers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 The Wider Logistics Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

2 Employment in UK Logistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Logistics Occupations: Comparison of Job Shortage Rankings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Driver Number and GDP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Driver Age Profile. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

5.1 Changes in LGV Drivers by Age Band. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 New Entrants and Test Pass Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

6.1 Initial Qualification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66.2 LGV Pass Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

6.2.1 Age of Test Takers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76.2.2 Gender of Test Takers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

7 Number and Proportion of non-UK EU LGV Drivers Working in the UK . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87.1 Non-UK EU LGV Driver Contracts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

8 Job Trends for Other Freight Transport-Related Occupations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88.1 Other Freight Transport Occupations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

9 Logistics Ethnicity and Gender . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119.1 Ethnicity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .119.2 Gender . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12

10 Logistics Apprenticeships in the UK. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1210.1 Apprenticeship Levy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1210.2 Number of logistics businesses paying the levy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1210.3 Amount paid into the levy by logistics businesses. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1310.4 Logistics Apprenticeships by Country. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13

10.4.1 England. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1310.4.2 Scotland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1310.4.3 Wales . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1410.4.4 Northern Ireland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

11 Appendix A: The Labour Force Survey Use and Limitations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1612 Appendix B: The Job Shortage Ranking Measure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

1 FTA SKILLS SHORTAGE REPORT • MAY 2018

1 Skills Shortage May 2018 - Report Summary

1 Report Summary

1.1 LGV Drivers

• LGV driver numbers were down by 13,000 year-on-year but rose by 18,000 from Q2 2017 to Q4 2017

• A comparative job shortage ranking measure showed that for both van and LGV drivers (compared with all other unskilled or semi-skilled vocations) remained high, reflecting sustained demand from employers for these workers

• Job creation in logistics rose, with an extra 66,000 jobs added year-on-year

• EU nationals accounted for 12% of all LGV drivers (down from 13%). The total number of EU nationals fell by 6,000 (14%) from Q4 2016 to Q4 2017. Further analysis showed that this reduction is almost entirely attributable to a fall in drivers from EU8 countries

• Comparing the final quarters of 2017 with 2016, losses in driver numbers at the end of last year were mainly due to middle-aged leavers (35-59) although younger driver (17-34) numbers were also down slightly

• In Q4 2017 the average age of an LGV driver increased slightly from 47.7 to 47.9 compared with Q4 2016. The average age was however significantly down from 48.3 in Q2 2017, which marked the moment when there was a substantial exodus of young drivers from the industry

• Comparing LGV drivers to the general working population in Q4 2017, differences in age demography remained similar to a year earlier and continued to show a large proportion of drivers aged 45 and over (59%). Above this age, there remained a significant proportion who were near to retirement; 12% were over 60 compared with only 9% of the general working population. The proportion of drivers over the age of 60 did however fall slightly from Q2 2017, when 14% were over 60

• New apprenticeship starts for Driving Goods Vehicles in England fell by 6.2% in 2016/2017 compared to 2015/2016

• The number of LGV drivers claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance in Q4 2017 was 382, down from 455 for Q2 2017, reflecting strong demand from employers

1.2 The Wider Logistics Industry

• The number of van drivers was down to 245,000 from 259,000 a year earlier. At the same time, the proportion of EU nationals fell from 9% to 7% (a reduction of around 4,000 drivers)

• The number of UK nationals employed in logistics grew by around 90,000 whilst the number of EU nationals decreased by 15,000. The number of non-EU nationals also fell (by 10,000) indicating a significant increase in the proportion of UK nationals employed in logistics. Storage workers saw the most significant fall in the number and proportion of EU nationals, a reduction of 29,000 jobs representing a fall from 26% of the workforce to 19%

• A comparative job shortage measure shows that among managerial and administrative logistics occupations, managers in storage ranked as the most severe for job shortage. For non-managerial/administrative roles, van drivers exhibited the largest job shortage score

• The estimate for the number of mechanics and technicians working in the logistics sector has followed a similar trend to the LGV driver count; the number began to rise in 2014 as the economy recovered but has recently fallen back

• In terms of ethnicity and gender, the logistics sector continues to be dominated by people who describe themselves as ethnically white (91%) and by male workers who represented 85.6% of the logistics vocations workforce as of Q4 2017

• Logistics businesses contributed £83 million to the Apprenticeship Levy in the year to April 2018 covering 912 schemes

Note 1: In recent years the truck and coach licensing category names have changed. HGV (Heavy Goods Vehicle) is now LGV (Large Goods Vehicle). For consistency the term LGV is used.Note 2: In the Labour Force Survey the LGV driver population of around 320,000 is estimated from a sample of approximately 450 survey responses each quarter (see Appendix A).


Skills Shortage May 2018 - Employment in UK Logistics 2

2 Employment in UK LogisticsThe following table provides estimates of employment in UK logistics in Q4 2017.1

Table 1 Comparison of employment in logistics: numbers and percentages employed (Q4 2016 vs. Q4 2017)

Overall, the number of people employed in logistics increased by 66,000 or 2.6%. The number of LGV drivers was down 13,000 year-on-year but this is still a slight improvement on Q2 2017 when it was down by 15,000. In the half year, 18,000 extra LGV driver jobs were added, following a significant reduction which began at the start of 2017. LGV and van driver EU nationals both decreased, along with elementary storage occupations, but EU nationals working as forklift drivers, couriers and management vocations all increased.Overall, there was a 5% annual fall in EU nationals in logistics (down by 15,000) and a reduction of 10,000 in non-EU nationals. This was however compensated for by an increase of 90,000 in UK nationals particularly in elementary storage, which saw a 30,000 increase in UK national head count.

1. Source: Repgraph analysis of ONS Labour Force Survey for Q4 2017

Logistics occupations

Employment (thousands)a

a. Numbers in round brackets are for Q4 2016, provided for comparison. Job estimates are rounded to the nearest thousand

By nationality (thousands)

Logistics sector

All other sectors Total % UK EU EU% Other

Purchasing managers and directors 4 64 68 3% 63 4 6% 1

(7) (49) (56) (2%) (53) (1) (2%) (2)

Managers and directors in transport and distribution

30 44 74 3% 69 4 5% 1

(36) (51) (87) (3%) (84) (3) (3%) (0)

Managers and directors in storage and warehousing

33 80 113 4% 98 12 11% 3

(35) (69) (104) (4%) (91) (9) (9%) (4)

Importers and exporters 6 1 7 0% 6 2 24% 0

(9) (2) (11) (0%) (7) (3) (27%) (1)

Transport and distribution clerks and assistants

27 47 74 3% 66 6 8% 2

(22) (30) (52) (2%) (48) (2) (4%) (2)

Large goods vehicle drivers 194 126 320 12% 280 37 12% 3

(207) (126) (333) (13%) (290) (43) (13%) (0)

Van drivers 91 153 245 9% 220 18 7% 7

(107) (152) (259) (10%) (227) (22) (9%) (10)

Fork-lift truck drivers 20 54 73 3% 54 19 26% 1

(35) (52) (87) (3%) (66) (16) (18%) (5)

Postal workers, mail sorters, messengers and couriers

132 32 164 6% 149 11 7% 4

(126) (28) (154) (6%) (141) (7) (5%) (6)

Elementary storage occupations 180 255 434 17% 335 81 19% 19

(186) (253) (439) (17%) (306) (113) (26%) (20)

Other occupations within the logistics sector

1,023 N/A 1,023 40% 899 102 10% 22

(948) (948) (38%) (834) (92) (10%) (22)

Total1,740 856 2,596

100%2,238 296 11% 62

(1,718) (812) (2,530) (2,147) (311) (12%) (72)


3 Skills Shortage May 2018 - Logistics Occupations: Comparison ofJob Shortage Rankings

As previously mentioned, the number of LGV drivers fell by around 13,000 (margin of error ± 3,000)2 or 4%. At the same time, the proportion of EU LGV drivers decreased to 12% from 13% a year earlier. The number of van drivers was down to 245,000 from 259,000 a year earlier. At the same time, the proportion of EU nationals fell from 9% to 7% (a reduction of around 4,000 drivers).

3 Logistics Occupations: Comparison of Job Shortage RankingsTable 2 shows the job shortage scores and constituent measures for the main logistics occupations.3 A higher score indicates a relatively larger job shortage (see Appendix B: The Job Shortage Ranking Measure).

Table 2 Overall job shortage rankings for logistics occupation categories

On average logistics vocations rose up the job shortage rankings compared to other professions in 2017. The most striking changes in shortage rankings were for purchasing managers (up by 172 points) followed by transport and distribution managers (up by 97 points). For the latter, the increase in ranking is driven by a combination of job number and average pay increases. Importers and exporters fell down the list whilst elementary storage occupations rose. Forklift drivers and couriers remained relatively low in the job shortage ranking.

2. Measured as confidence interval at the 95% level3. More details of the job shortage ranking measure methodology are described in the FTA Skills Shortage Report, July 2017

IndicatorsJob shortage scorea

a. Across all occupation categories, dispensing opticians ranked the highest with a shortage score of 1037 and forestry workers ranked the lowest with a shortage score of 50

Job shortage measures (Q4 2013 to Q4 2016)

∆ job number ∆ average pay ∆ claimant count

Dispensing opticians (highest job shortage score)

1037 67% 46% -98%

Managers and directors in storage and warehousing

774 23% 10% -82%

Managers and directors in transport and distribution

653 15% 6% -80%

Van drivers 644 22% 7% -78%

Large goods vehicle drivers 625 9% 12% -79%

Purchasing managers and directors 614 12% 19% -74%

Transport and distribution clerks and assistants

582 5% 5% -81%

Elementary storage occupations 496 2% 15% -73%

Fork-lift truck drivers 492 -19% 13% -80%

Importers and exporters 407 -29% -4% -84%

Postal workers, mail sorters, messengers and couriers

336 -11% 8% -71%

Forestry workers (lowest job shortage score)

50 -34% -44% -66%


Skills Shortage May 2018 - Driver Number and GDP 4

4 Driver Number and GDPThe following graph illustrates how growth in the UK workforce has followed Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the last few years.4

Figure 1 UK job numbers compared to GDP

Up until the middle of 2016, job growth and GDP followed the same rate of increase. Since then, however, there has been a slight reduction in the rate of increase in jobs, perhaps an indication that the UK is now approaching full employment.

The following graph maps recent movement in GDP along with LGV driver numbers.

Figure 2 LGV driver numbers (with error margin) compared to GDP

4. Workforce and driver numbers calculated from Labour Force Surveys Q1 2014 - Q4 2017


5 Skills Shortage May 2018 - Driver Age Profile

Towards the end of 2016 the number of LGV drivers began to decrease even as GDP continued to grow, reaching a low in Q2 2017, before rebounding somewhat in the latter half of 2017. Given the broad increase in the national workforce in recent years, this is an indication that workers continue to reject LGV driving as an occupation, perhaps due to the abundance of more attractive jobs with more favourable working patterns and conditions.

5 Driver Age ProfileIn Q4 2017 the average age of an LGV driver increased slightly from 47.7 to 47.9 compared with Q4 2016. The average age was however significantly down from 48.3 in Q2 2017, which marked the moment when there was a substantial exodus of young drivers from the industry.5

Figure 3 LGV driver age compared with working population age

Comparing LGV drivers to the general working population in Q4 2017 (Figure 3), differences in age demography remained similar to a year earlier and continued to show a large proportion of drivers aged 45 and over (59%). Above this age, there remained a significant proportion who were near to retirement; 12% were over 60 compared with only 9% of the general working population. The proportion of over 60 drivers did fall slightly from Q2 2017, when 14% of the LGV driver population was over 60.

5. FTA Skills Shortage Report, November 2017


Skills Shortage May 2018 - New Entrants and Test Pass Rates 6

5.1 Changes in LGV Drivers by Age Band

The following table provides a breakdown of the change in driver numbers by age band, measured using Labour Force Survey results for Q4 of 2016 and 2017.

Table 3 LGV drivers numbers by age (Q4 2016 and Q4 2017)6

In Q2 2017, there was a large reduction in the LGV driver workforce under the age of 35, which accounted for a fall in the LGV driver population of 15,000.5 By contrast, the year-on-year reduction In Q4 2017 was driven primarily by a fall in the count of middle-aged drivers (Table 3). This reduction was somewhat offset by an increase in drivers over 60. This pattern is somewhat concerning for the long term since a sustainable driver population ideally requires retirees to be replaced by younger drivers and a minimal loss of more experienced middle aged drivers. The loss of drivers in the middle age band can only be sustainably offset by the recruitment of younger drivers, where unfortunately there was also a small year-on-year reduction in numbers.

6 New Entrants and Test Pass Rates

6.1 Initial Qualification

The figures for drivers acquiring Driver Certificate of Professional Competency (DCPC) through initial qualification (which represents new entrants to the industry who did not hold a category C licence prior to 10 September 2009) are provided in Table 4. There was a decrease of 6% in new entrants for the year ending December 2017 compared to the previous year.

Table 4 Initial qualification

6.2 LGV Pass Rate

The pass rate for LGV drivers impacts on the number of drivers in employment. The number of practical tests taken in 2017 decreased by nearly 7% compared to 2016. Overall the number of tests taken has increased by 76% since the low of 2010. The pass rate has gradually improved since 2008, reaching a high of 58% in 2017 (Table 5).7

Age Band Driver count Q4 2016 Driver count Q4 2017 2016-17 change

17-34 51,650(±473)

50,432(±459)

-1,218

35-59 244,114(±1,919)

229,133(±1,938)

-14,981

60+ 37,727(±407)

40,323(±390)

2,596

TOTAL: 333,491 319,888 -13,603

6. Margins of error (in brackets) are expressed as confidence interval at the 95% level. See Appendix 1 in “Labour Migration in the Hospitality Sector: A KPMG report for the British Hospitality Association, March 2017” for more details on calculation of Confidence Intervals for Labour Force Survey data

Note: DCPC initial qualification includes both lorry and bus drivers combined.

Calendar year DCPC initial qualificationa

a. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/driver-cpc-qualifi-cation-and-training-data

2012 16,027

2013 19,750

2014 27,768

2015 34,683

2016 39,149

2017 36,677

7. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/drt05-practical-large-goods-vehicles-LGV-test-pass-rates


7 Skills Shortage May 2018 - New Entrants and Test Pass Rates

Table 5 Practical large goods vehicle (LGV) test, Great Britain: 2008-20178

6.2.1 Age of Test TakersIn the year to the end of March 2017, 60% of all tests were taken by those under the age of 35. In addition the average age of a person taking a practical test was 34.9

6.2.2 Gender of Test TakersThe number of women taking the practical LGV test has remained between 6% and 7% of all test takers since 2008, though in 2017 this rose to nearly 8%. The number of tests taken by women increased by over 2% in 2017 compared with 2016 while at the same time tests taken by men decreased by 7%. The pass rate for women is consistently higher than their male counterparts.

Table 6 Pass rates for men and women

Year Tests Passes % pass ratea

a. Source: DfT 2017 Practical large goods vehicles (LGV) test pass rates (DRT0501)

2008 69,386 33,708 49%

2009 50,626 25,680 51%

2010 41,174 21,267 52%

2011 47,069 24,639 52%

2012 46,744 24,634 53%

2013 47,511 25,679 54%

2014 51,530 28,486 55%

2015 67,149 37,205 55%

2016 77,623 43,643 56%

2017 72,452 41,871 58%

8. Includes test categories C, C1, C+E, C1+E9. Source: DfT 2017 Practical large goods vehicles (LGV) test pass rates (DRT0503)

Year Male pass rate Female pass rate

2008 48% 51%

2009 50% 54%

2010 51% 54%

2011 52% 54%

2012 53% 54%

2013 54% 58%

2014 55% 58%

2015 55% 59%

2016 56% 60%

2017 58% 60%


Skills Shortage May 2018 - Number and Proportion of non-UK EU LGV Drivers Working in the UK 8

7 Number and Proportion of non-UK EU LGV Drivers Working in the UK

Table 7 Total and proportion of UK and non-UK EU LGV drivers

Non-UK EU driver numbers have decreased by over 6,000 (a 14% drop) at the same time as the total number of drivers has decreased by 13,000 meaning that the EU driver proportion has fallen slightly to 12%. The non-EU (Other) driver number has increased marginally but not within statistical significance. The proportion of drivers who are EU8 nationals10 has fallen by 7,000 and this accounts for around half of the overall fall in driver numbers and all of the reduction in EU national drivers.

7.1 Non-UK EU LGV Driver Contracts

Some 90% of non-UK EU LGV drivers reported that they hold a permanent job, with the remainder stating that they held a temporary job, though not through an agency. At the same time, of those who defined their job as permanent, 7% reported that they were employed through an agency.

8 Job Trends for Other Freight Transport-Related OccupationsThe number of transport managers and directors has not changed a great deal in the last six years, however managers and directors in storage began to increase in the latter half of 2017, at the same time as the transport manager job count fell (Figure 4).

Figure 4 Freight transport managers and directors

Nationalitya

a. Source: Labour Force Surveys Q4 2016 and Q4 2017. Totals in thousands, percentages rounded

UK EU(thousands)

Other Total∆% total year-on-

year

∆% EU jobs year-on-

yearEU8

Q4 2016 290(87%)

43(13%)

0(0%)

333 - - 30(9%)

Q4 2017 280(88%)

37(12%)

3(1%)

320 -4% -14% 23(7%)

10. EU8 countries are Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia


9 Skills Shortage May 2018 - Job Trends for Other Freight Transport-Related Occupations

The estimate for the number of mechanics and technicians working in the logistics sector has followed a similar trend to the LGV driver count; the number began to rise in 2014 as the economy recovered but has recently fallen back dramatically, by 48% comparing Q2 2017 with Q4 2017 (Figure 5).

Figure 5 Freight transport mechanics and technicians (with error margin)

8.1 Other Freight Transport Occupations

The following graphs show recent trends in job numbers for other key vocations in freight transport.

Figure 6 Other managerial and clerical occupations

The estimated number of purchasing managers has risen steadily since mid-2015, a trend which continued through the latter half of 2017. The count of transport and distribution clerks has remained broadly unchanged over the same period.


Skills Shortage May 2018 - Job Trends for Other Freight Transport-Related Occupations 10

Figure 7 Other driving, courier and storage occupations

Elementary storage occupation positions have recovered the loss in job numbers observed in 2016 however numbers were slightly down at the end of last year. Fork-lift driver numbers have continually declined since Q2 2016 at the same time as postal, mail and courier positions experienced a moderate reversal of the steady declines seen since 2011.


11 Skills Shortage May 2018 - Logistics Ethnicity and Gender

9 Logistics Ethnicity and Gender

9.1 Ethnicity

Data were analysed to ascertain the ethnic make up of the logistics industry.11 For this exercise ‘other occupations within the logistics sector’ were excluded and the main logistics professions were examined.

Table 8 Ethnicity in logistics Q4 2017

Overall the logistics sector is still dominated by people who describe themselves as ethnically white (91%). The second largest single ethnic group are black, followed by Indian. These figures are broadly identical to ethnicity estimates for Q2 2017.

11. Estimates from analysis of the ONS Labour Force Survey, Q4 2017

Logistics occupations Whitea

a. White includes respondents in England, Wales and Scotland identifying themselves as 'White-Gypsy or Irish Traveller' and respondents in Scotland identifying themselves as 'White -Polish'

Blackb

b. Black/African/Caribbean/Black British

Indian Pakistani Chinese BangladeshiMixed ethnic /other

Purchasing managers and directors (1133)

64,909 1,205 0 0 645 0 707[96.2%] [1.8%] [0.0%] [0.0%] [1.0%] [0.0%] [1.0%]

Managers and directors in transport and distribution (1161)

68,668 2,578 0 0 0 0 2,983[92.5%] [3.5%] [0.0%] [0.0%] [0.0%] [0.0%] [4.0%]

Managers and directors in storage and warehousing (1162)

103,164 1,030 3,045 0 0 0 5,873[91.2%] [0.9%] [2.7%] [0.0%] [0.0%] [0.0%] [5.2%]

Importers and exporters (3536)6,117 1,150 0 0 0 0 0

[84.2%] [15.8%] [0.0%] [0.0%] [0.0%] [0.0%] [0.0%]

Transport and distribution clerks and assistants (4134)

66,222 3,004 0 739 0 0 3,578[90.0%] [4.1%] [0.0%] [1.0%] [0.0%] [0.0%] [4.9%]

Large goods vehicle drivers (8211)

303,362 6,138 3,720 0 0 802 5,866[94.8%] [1.9%] [1.2%] [0.0%] [0.0%] [0.3%] [1.8%]

Van drivers (8212)220,487 7,344 2,675 3,843 0 4,715 5,626[90.1%] [3.0%] [1.1%] [1.6%] [0.0%] [1.9%] [2.3%]

Forklift drivers (8222)65,334 3,005 1,204 652 0 0 3,230[89.0%] [4.1%] [1.6%] [0.9%] [0.0%] [0.0%] [4.4%]

Postal workers, mail sorters, messengers and couriers (9211)

144,088 6,757 4,821 2,907 1,216 0 4,352[87.8%] [4.1%] [2.9%] [1.8%] [0.7%] [0.0%] [2.7%]

Elementary storage occupations (9260)

389,065 13,956 13,467 5,010 707 1,287 10,807[89.5%] [3.2%] [3.1%] [1.2%] [0.2%] [0.3%] [2.5%]

Total1,431,416 46,167 28,932 13,151 2,568 6,804 43,022

[91.2%] [2.9%] [1.8%] [0.8%] [0.2%] [0.4%] [2.7%]


Skills Shortage May 2018 - Logistics Apprenticeships in the UK 12

9.2 Gender

The following table summarises ONS estimates of the gender of individuals working in key logistics vocations.12

Table 9 Gender in logistics industry

The logistics industry is dominated by male workers (85.6%) although there has been a small increase in the proportion of women in logistics professions (from 13.0% in Q4 2016 to 14.4% in Q4 2017). Estimates for the number of female LGV drivers or fork-lift drivers or either gender for importers and exporters were not possible as there were too few respondents to the Labour Force Survey in these cases for statistical significance.

10 Logistics Apprenticeships in the UK

10.1 Apprenticeship Levy

The apprenticeship levy was introduced in April 2017 and requires businesses with a payroll of more than £3m to be charged 0.5% of their payroll into the levy. Although the levy applies across the UK, as apprenticeships are a devolved matter, it is administered differently in each country.

10.2 Number of logistics businesses paying the levy

According to HMRC13 the total number of employers who have made a payment to HMRC to clear an Apprenticeship Levy during the period 6 April 2017 to 17 April 2018 is 52,598. HMRC records indicate that of these employment schemes, a total count of 912 schemes are related to the logistics business sector.

12. RepGraph analysis of the ONS Q4 2017 Labour Force Survey

Logistics occupations Malea

a. ts - sample size too small for estimation

Female

Purchasing managers and directors (1133) 46,901[68.8%]

21,259[31.2%]

Managers and directors in transport and distribution (1161) 55,127[74.3%]

19,102[25.7%]

Managers and directors in storage and warehousing (1162) 94,512[83.6%]

18,600[16.4%]

Importers and exporters (3536) ts ts

Transport and distribution clerks and assistants (4134) 47,300[64.3%]

26,243[35.7%]

Large goods vehicle drivers (8211) 318,559[100.0%]

ts

Van drivers (8212) 224,399[91.7%]

20,291[8.3%]

Fork-lift truck drivers (8222) 72,572[100.0%]

ts

Postal workers, mail sorters, messengers and couriers (9211) 126,695[77.2%]

37,446[22.8%]

Elementary storage occupations (9260) 351,801[81.0%]

82,498[19.0%]

Total 1,337,866[85.6%]

225,439[14.4%]

13. Information provided by HMRC outside of the FOI Act on a discretionary basis, April 2018


13 Skills Shortage May 2018 - Logistics Apprenticeships in the UK

10.3 Amount paid into the levy by logistics businesses

The total value of payments for the Apprenticeship Levy charge, made during the period 6 April 2017 to 17 April 2018, totalled £2.3bn. HMRC records indicate that a total amount of £83 million has been paid by employers in the logistics business sector.13

10.4 Logistics Apprenticeships by Country

Data on logistic apprenticeships were gathered for each country in the UK: England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Databases and statistical sets related to apprenticeship starts differ for each country and where data were not available information requests were sent. Dataset sources are referenced under each country below.

It should be noted that England, Wales and Northern Ireland cover academic year from 1st August to 31st July while data for Scotland use different months quarters and academic years (1 April to 31 March).

10.4.1 EnglandYear-on-year the number of logistics apprenticeship starts in fell by nearly 7 per cent. New frameworks were added in 2016 yielding an additional 410 starts in 2016/17. However even with these the number of logistics apprenticeships fell by 5.5 per cent in 2016/17 compared with 2015/16. Driving goods vehicles (combined with new framework 'LGV driver') fell by 6.2 per cent at the same time from 5,510 to 5,170 starts. This only covers three months of the introduction of the levy.14

Table 10 Logistics Apprenticeship Starts - England

10.4.2 ScotlandYear-on-year the number of transport and logistics apprenticeship starts fell by 25 per cent in 2016/17 compared with 2015/16. However the latest quarterly data for transport and logistics covering April to 29 Dec 2017 indicates that logistics apprenticeships are up 19 per cent, which covers the levy period.15

14. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/fe-data-library-apprenticeships

Old frameworks 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Warehousing and storage 7,010 7,070 7,110 8,440 8,070 7,150

Driving Goods Vehicles 7,620 5,510 4,000 4,930 5,490 4,970

Logistics Operations Mgmt 900 1,480 580 780 790 860

Vehicle maintenance and repair

8,150 8,390 8,500 9,010 9,500 9,310

Transport engineering and maintenance

170 210 260 350 390 290

International trade and logistics operations

200 140 90 120 130 110

New frameworks

LGV Driver 0 0 0 0 20 200

Supply Chain Operator 0 0 0 0 0 10

Supply Chain Warehouse 0 0 0 0 50 190

Heavy Vehicle Service Maintenance

10

Total Logistics 24,050 22,800 20,540 23,630 24,440 23,100

15. https://www.skillsdevelopmentscotland.co.uk/publications-statistics/statistics/modern-apprenticeships


Skills Shortage May 2018 - Logistics Apprenticeships in the UK 14

Table 11 Logistics Apprenticeship Starts - Scotland (1 April - 31 March)

Table 12 Logistics Apprenticeship Starts - Q3 is the 9 months from 1 April to 29 December

10.4.3 WalesYear-on-year the number of logistics apprenticeship starts fell by 9 per cent in 2016/17 compared with 2015/16. Driving goods vehicles fell significantly by at least 75 per cent at the same time. This only covers three months of the introduction of the levy.16

Table 13 Logistics Apprenticeship Starts - Wales

10.4.4 Northern IrelandNorthern Ireland does not publish starts per year by framework, a request to the Northern Ireland Department for the Economy regarding starts data for logistics apprenticeships revealed that data for starts were available from 1st August 2017 onwards. The latest available data relate to 1st August 2017 to 31st October 2017. The following are listed as starts for this period.17

Table 14 Northern Ireland Apprenticeships Starts August 2017 - October 2017

There are no cases for driving goods vehicles before 2016/17 which indicates that there were no apprenticeships on this scheme before this time. This of course does not mean that this particular apprenticeship was not available before this.18

Northern Ireland does publish the number of apprentices in occupation, reported at a point in time. Year-on-year the number of logistics apprenticeship in occupation increased by nearly 10 per cent in October 2017 compared with October 2016 (Table 15).19

Sector and Occupation 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Transport and Logistics 2,058 1,530 1,683 1,476 1,106

Note: Transport and logistics - occupation sector includes: Freight Logistics, PCV driving and Supply chain management

Sector and Occupation Q3 2016/17 Q3 2017/18 Quarterly% Change

Transport and Logistics 710 842 18.6%

16. statswales.gov.uk: Learning programme starts in work-based learning provision

Frameworka

a. Any values greater than 0 and less than 5 have been suppressed and replaced with an asterisk (*)

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

Warehousing and storage 260 105 95 120 125

Driving Goods Vehicles 65 180 50 20 *

Vehicle maintenance and repair 555 720 540 550 480

Other sector frameworks - Transport 35 30 40 30 50

Total Logistics 915 1,035 725 720 655

17. Data were extracted from the Department's Client Management System on 24th February 2018

Framework Number

Distribution and warehousing 2

Driving goods vehicles 0

Vehicle maintenance and repair 155

18. Response from Economy NI Department for Education analytical services April 201819. https://www.economy-ni.gov.uk/articles/apprenticeshipsni-statistics


15 Skills Shortage May 2018 - Logistics Apprenticeships in the UK

Table 15 Logistics Apprenticeships in occupation (October each year) - Northern Ireland

Framework 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Distribution and Warehousing 400 163 45 46 39 52

Driving Goods Vehicles 0 0 0 0 0 10

Vehicle maintenance and repair 330 423 510 552 549 584

Total Logistics 400 586 555 598 588 636


Skills Shortage May 2018 - Appendix A: The Labour Force Survey Use and Limitations 16

11 Appendix A: The Labour Force Survey Use and LimitationsThe Labour Force Survey is a survey of households living at private addresses in the UK. Its purpose is to provide information on the UK labour market which can then be used to develop, manage, evaluate and report on labour market policies. The survey is managed by the Office for National Statistics in Great Britain and by the Central Survey Unit of the Department of Finance and Personnel in Northern Ireland on behalf of the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment (DETINI).

The Labour Force Survey is intended to be representative of the whole population of the UK, and the sample design currently consists of around 38,000 responding households in every quarter. The quarterly survey has a panel design whereby households stay in the sample for five consecutive quarters (or waves), with a fifth of the sample replaced each quarter. Thus there is an 80% overlap in the samples for each successive survey. The LGV driver population of around 300,000 is estimated from a sample of approximately 440 survey responses each quarter.

Because the sampling methodology of the Labour Force Survey has been developed over many years to reflect as closely as possible the national population, it is considered to be a generally reliable source of many statistical estimates such as employment, nationality and country of birth. It is also a useful means of tracking longitudinal trends such as occupational job numbers, age demographics etc.

There are some inevitable shortcomings and limitations with the survey. Since the sampling methodology uses households, it does not tend to capture information regarding individuals without a long-term residential address (for example seasonal workers or those for whom accommodation is provided by their employer). The survey is also based on a smaller sample size than some other national surveys (such as the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings).20

20. Labour Migration in the Hospitality Sector: A KPMG report for the British Hospitality Association March 2017


17 Skills Shortage May 2018 - Appendix B: The Job Shortage Ranking Measure

12 Appendix B: The Job Shortage Ranking MeasureAbsolute job shortages are very difficult to measure due to a number of factors, including the reliability and consistency of measurable data across all occupations.21 For this reason, RepGraph developed a measure that provides a relative ranking of occupations, based on the following factors.22

• Rising demand for labour: reflected in an increase in job numbers• Falling supply of labour: measured by a decrease in claimant count• The need to attract and retain staff: manifested in rising pay

Occupations that experience the greatest labour shortages therefore typically see high growth in worker numbers, accompanied by large falls in claimant count and increases in pay.21

The relative job shortage measure is used in this report to compare potential job shortage issues in logistics occupations. The measure is comprised of the sum of the three labour market factors which are thought to correlate strongly with job shortages.21

1. Claimant count23 (ranking 1 -353 where 353 = greatest percentage fall in claimant count)

2. Job totals24 (ranking 1-353 where 353 = largest percentage rise in job numbers)

3. Average weekly earnings25 (ranking 1-353 where 353 = largest percentage increase in average weekly pay)

The shortage ranking measurement used data from Labour Force Surveys for Q1-Q4 2014 and Q1-Q4 2017 along with ONS claimant count data for the same periods. The percentage difference was determined for each of the ONS occupational categories across a four quarter mean of the three job shortage measurement factors outlined above (i.e. claimant count, job totals and average weekly earnings).

Percentage differences were calculated for each occupation category and these were ranked relative to each other. The rankings for the three measurement factors were then combined to give an overall relative job shortage score per occupation category. The highest score for the job shortage ranking measure represents the greatest labour shortage (the maximum possible value is 1,059 and the lowest possible is 3).

21. http://www.workandeconomy.org/images/Measuring_Labor_Market_Shortages_07-17-09_FINAL_-_color.pdf22. UK Industry Workforce Demographics: prepared for Business with Europe, 201723. Official Labour Market Statistics: Claimant Counts by Occupation. Claimant count values are calculated as the mean of monthly claimant count values for

October, November and December (the three months of Q4)24. Labour Force Surveys, 2014 and 201725. Earnings are the median weekly earnings values, calculated according to ONS guidelines, described in the Labour Force Survey Manuals

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