Frontier Pt2
of 20
Transcript of Frontier Pt2
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7/25/2019 Frontier Pt2
1/20
Strategy Renaissance CapitalX January 2016
Figure 407: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100) Figure 408: Economic outlook
MAD 2015 2016 2017
BBB-/Ba1 4.9 3.7 4.87.5% 3,077 3,249 3,442
MXMA 33.5 33.8 34.2
14.6 1.6 2.0 2.0
7.5% -2.3 -1.6 -1.5
2.5 -4.3 -3.5 -3.0
0.2
31.4
6.1
9
12.5
MOSEMDX
42.1
54
19.2
Figure 409: Index and stock data
MktCap 12MF Trail 12MF Analys MSCI
($mn) 1M 3M 12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)
MXMA 31,358 2.0 -0.4 -16.3 13.9 2.5 20.0 50 7.5
IAM MC 10,313 4.0 5.3 -10.2 16.1 8.2 34.9 12 34.0
ATW MC 6,769 -1.8 0.8 -11.6 13.3 1.9 12.5 7 22.3
LAC MC 2,761 0.5 -6.4 -21.2 na 5.8 28.3 5 11.4
BCE MC 3,840 -0.7 -2.9 -7.3 16.0 2.3 na 3 9.5
BCP MC 3,960 -1.4 0.5 -9.6 14.8 1.1 9.4 6 6.8
ADH MC 866 10.6 -2.0 -18.2 7.4 0.8 9.4 4 5.7
CMA MC 1,667 8.8 -1.1 6.8 na 2.9 16.1 5 5.5
WAA MC 1,094 -1.0 -13.3 -22.9 11.9 2.4 16.5 3 3.6
MNG MC 526 -13.8 -41.6 -45.5 na 1.5 8.8 5 1.1
HOL MC 844 -1.9 -12.6 -31.9 na 2.1 23.8 5 -
CSR MC 819 11.7 12.6 10.0 10.1 2.3 18.0 5 -
TMA MC 508 4.8 -2.8 4.3 na na 39.1 2 -
TQM MC 1,415 1.9 0.1 15.2 15.8 na 17.4 3 -
BCI MC 713 -14.9 -3.7 -29.1 14.9 0.8 na 2 -
LES MC 347 9.9 13.5 16.7 15.4 2.3 13.0 5 -
ATH MC 480 3.0 -3.6 13.7 16.0 2.8 13.8 4 -
LBV MC 288 -3.5 -7.1 -9.8 na 2.1 8.7 4 -
CDM MC - . - . - . na . na -
Figure 410: 3MADTV, $mn Figure 411: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x) Figure 412: MSCI sector weights
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
414 0.1
Cosumar Cons. Staples
($mn)
No. of Companies
MktCap ($bn)
Maroc Telecom
Figure 406: Key data
Local Currency
S&P / Moody's RatingWeight in MSCI FM (%)
Morocco
3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos
Local Index
Trailing P/B
Beta to FM
MSCI Full MktCap, $bn
MSCI free float MktCap, $b
No. of Companies
MSCI Index
2016 P/E
2016 EPS Growth
12.5
Ticker Name Sector
Real GDP (% YoY)
C/A balance (% of GDP)
219 0.1
Managem Materials 68 0.0
1.4
Ciments Du Maroc Materials
Telecoms 2,066 1.3
MSCI Morocco 6,083
Attijariwafa Financials 1,360
0.8
0.3
Taqa Morocco Utilities 201 1.1
Label Vie Cons. Staples 125 1.3
Government balance (% of GDP)
CPI (year-end, %YoY)
3M ADTV ($mn)
$ Performance
GDP/Capita, $
Population, mn
FF Mkt Cap
($mn)
3MADTV
229 0.1
Banque Centrale Financials 415 1.7
5.6
Lafarge Ciments Materials 690 1.2
Banque Marocaine Financials 578
347 0.1
Douja Prom Addoh Financials 340
Wafa Assurance Financials
Holcim Materials
Cons. Disc. 126 0.1
Banque Marocaine Financials 182 3.0
Lesieur Cristal Cons. Staples 141 0.2
Auto Hall
Total Maroc Sa Energy 229 0.1
Credit Du Maroc Financials 113
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
J
an-10
Jul-10
J
an-11
Jul-11
J
an-12
Jul-12
J
an-13
Jul-13
J
an-14
Jul-14
J
an-15
Jul-15
J
an-16
MSCI Morocco, $ MSCI FM, $
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan
Jul-10
Jan
Jul-11
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-14
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
Morocco 3M ADTV ($mn)
0
5
10
15
20
Jan
Jul-10
Jan
Jul-11
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-14
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
Morocco Frontier
48%
34%
18%Financials
Telecoms
Materials
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Figure 413: Population, '000 Figure 414: Export destinations, total $23bn
Source: UN Source: IMF
Figure 415: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 416: Morocco - dirham
Source: IMF Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel
Figure 417: Bank lending growth vs GDP Figure 418: Real GDP % change, YoY
Source: IMF Source: IMF
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0-19 20-64 65+
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
00
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS CPI (average % YoY)
85
90
95
100
105
110
1150.02.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
MAD vs $ MAD vs EUR Morocco REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Weaker
Stronger
0
2
4
6
8
1012
14
16
18
20
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY)
4.8
3.3
7.6
3.5
5.9
4.2 3.8
5.2
3.0
4.7
2.4
4.9
3.7
4.8 5.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
EU
EuroArea
Spain
France
Brazil
Italy
USA
India
UK
Germany
% of total exports Value ($bn), 2014, RHS
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Figure 420: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100) Figure 421: Economic outlook
NGN 2015 2016 2017
B+/Ba3 4.0 4.3 4.512.3% 2,758 2,641 2,695
MXNG 178.7 183.6 188.7
6.4 10.5 9.5 8.0
3.1% -1.8 -1.2 -0.5
1.2 -3.9 -3.2 -3.3
1.3
32.2
9.9
16
11.3
NGSEINDX
41.2
179
13.2
Figure 422: Index and stock data
MktCap 12MF Trail 12MF Analys MSCI
($mn) 1M 3M 12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)
MXNI 32,168 -13.1 -23.5 -25.3 6.1 1.2 15.4 248 12.3
NB NL 3,984 -12.9 -30.6 -33.2 17.3 4.7 23.7 19 19.8
GUARANTY 2,440 -9.2 -28.5 -23.2 4.6 1.2 22.9 23 12.1
NESTLE NL 2,823 -10.0 -15.0 -16.7 22.7 14.0 54.5 17 11.2
ZENITHBA N 1,989 -11.0 -26.0 -25.9 3.7 0.7 17.4 20 9.9
DANGCEM N 11,081 -14.4 -20.9 -21.0 9.4 3.5 29.8 17 7.7
FO NL 1,949 -5.0 3.0 48.0 63.4 29.4 12.8 5 5.8
WAPCO NL 1,831 -13.4 -16.5 -7.9 8.8 1.9 17.8 15 5.5
ETI NL 1,750 -10.4 -22.1 -9.4 3.1 0.7 13.2 9 5.2
GUINNESS 832 -8.2 -11.8 -19.4 18.7 3.4 16.5 17 4.1
FBNH NL 718 -15.7 -22.0 -42.9 2.2 0.3 10.1 18 3.6
UNILEVER N 637 -22.4 -17.8 -7.8 50.4 17.5 25.3 14 3.2
ACCESS NL 597 -11.6 -13.5 -26.3 2.9 0.3 11.8 17 3.0
STANBIC NL 653 -13.0 -34.4 -52.2 4.9 1.1 19.0 12 2.8
UBA NL 534 -11.9 -14.3 -21.1 2.0 0.3 15.5 19 2.7
SEPLAT NL 524 -8.5 -22.1 -41.6 3.7 0.4 9.1 13 2.0
PZ NL 419 -17.9 -15.8 -26.2 19.9 2.1 9.6 13 1.3
7UP NL 631 8.2 0.3 15.9 16.6 5.2 25.3 2 -
DANGSUGA - . - . - . . . . -
Figure 423: 3MADTV, $mn Figure 424: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x) Figure 425: MSCI sector weights
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
Pz Cussons Niger Cons. Staples 126 0.1
7-Up Bottlng Cons. Staples 631 0.2
Dangote Sugar Re Cons. Staples 299 0.0
Stanbic Ibtc Hol Financials 282 0.2
United Bank Afr Financials 263 0.3
Seplat Petrol Energy 205 0.2
Fbn Holdings Plc Financials 360 0.6
Unilever Nigeria Cons. Staples 335 0.3
Access Bank Plc Financials 301 0.9
Lafarge Africa P Materials 549 0.5
Ecobank Transnat Financials 524 0.2
Guinness Nigeria Cons. Staples 416 0.3
Zenith Bank Plc Financials 927 1.7
Dangote Cement Materials 775 0.7
Forte Oil Plc Energy 584 0.3
Nigerian Brewer Cons. Staples 1,990 1.7
Guaranty Trust Financials 1,164 2.7
Nestle Nigeria P Cons. Staples 1,128 0.7
FF Mkt Cap 3MADTV $ Performance
($mn) ($mn)
MSCI Nigeria 9,927 11.3
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos
Local Index
MktCap ($bn)
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn)
Ticker Name Sector
2016 P/E CPI (year-end, %YoY)
2016 EPS Growth C/A balance (% of GDP)
Trailing P/B Government balance (% of GDP)
Beta to FM
MSCI Full MktCap, $bn
MSCI free float MktCap, $b
NigeriaFigure 419: Key data
Local Currency
S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)Weight in MSCI FM (%) GDP/Capita, $
MSCI Index Population, mn
0
50
100
150
200
250
J
an-10
Jul-10
J
an-11
Jul-11
J
an-12
Jul-12
J
an-13
Jul-13
J
an-14
Jul-14
J
an-15
Jul-15
J
an-16
MSCI Nigeria, $ MSCI FM, $
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Jan
Jul-10
Jan
Jul-11
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-14
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
Nigeria 3M ADTV ($mn)
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Nigeria Frontier
40%
39%
13%
8% Cons.Staples
Financials
Materials
Energy
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Figure 426: Population, '000 Figure 427: Export destinations, total $93bn
Source: UN Source: IMF
Figure 428: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 429: Nigeria - naira
Source: IMF Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel
Figure 430: Bank lending growth vs GDP Figure 431: Real GDP % change, YoY
Source: IMF Source: IMF
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0-19 20-64 65+
-5
0
5
10
15
20
250
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS CPI (average % YoY)
90
95
100
105
110
1150.02.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
NGN vs $ NGN vs EUR Nigeria REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Weaker
Stronger
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY)
8.8 8.7 8.39.1
8.0
9.0
10.0
4.94.3
5.4 6.3
4.0 4.34.5 4.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
EU
EuroArea
India
Brazil
Netherlands
Spain
France
SouthAfrica
Germany
Japan
% of total exports Value ($bn), 2014, RHS
98
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Figure 433: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100) Figure 434: Economic outlook
OMR 2015 2016 2017
BBB+/A1 4.4 2.8 2.04.5% 15,672 15,322 15,973
MXOM 3.8 4.0 4.1
7.3 0.4 2.0 2.9
2.0% -16.9 -24.3 -22.4
1.0 -17.7 -20.0 -18.5
0.4
9.2
3.7
8
5.7
MSM30
14.6
30
11.1
Figure 435: Index and stock data
MktCap 12MF Trail 12MF Analys MSCI
($mn) 1M 3M 12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)
MXOM 9,200 -10.5 -18.2 -25.5 7.4 1.0 12.3 53 4.5
OTEL OM 2,776 -8.9 -12.5 -18.6 8.7 1.9 19.8 8 34.1
BKMB OM 2,464 -11.9 -22.7 -28.0 5.6 0.7 12.9 9 26.9
ORDS OM 1,048 -13.4 -18.8 -9.9 8.5 2.0 20.3 10 11.4
BKSB OM 487 -17.2 -25.7 -38.8 6.2 0.8 12.3 6 8.0
HBMO OM 509 -4.9 -19.0 -32.4 12.5 0.6 3.2 5 6.9
RCCI OM 497 -8.1 -15.4 -48.5 8.7 1.3 13.8 3 4.7
ABOB OM 692 -4.6 -8.3 -8.2 9.2 1.2 12.7 4 4.7
NBOB OM 839 -9.1 -19.6 -25.9 5.7 0.8 14.0 8 3.2
SSPW OM 607 0.0 -9.7 8.7 na 2.8 na 2 -
OMVS OM 649 2.7 -10.6 15.6 na 1.1 na 1 -
BKDB OM 903 3.7 -7.8 -27.3 8.5 1.0 11.7 5 -
BKNZ OM 245 -11.3 -21.2 -21.2 6.3 0.7 na 1 -
GECS OM 167 -28.8 -39.5 -66.7 na 0.2 -10.1 2 -
SOMS OM 499 -1.8 -1.7 -1.7 14.0 5.5 34.6 3 -
OCOI OM 387 -2.2 0.0 -11.8 11.3 1.0 7.4 4 -
AACT OM 215 -7.9 -18.1 -25.3 14.0 2.1 15.2 3 -
MHAS OM 308 -9.5 -12.2 -20.4 na 2.4 na 2 -
SUWP OM - . - . . . . na -
Figure 436: 3MADTV, $mn Figure 437: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x) Figure 438: MSCI sector weights
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
Al-Anwar Ceramic Industrials 124 0.2
Al Maha Petroleu Energy 122 0.1
Al Suwadi Power Utilities 83 0.2
Galfar Engineer Industrials 167 0.1
Shell Oman Marke Energy 148 0.1
Oman Cement Co Materials 126 0.2
Ominvest Financials 587 1.1
Bank Dhofar Saog Financials 371 0.1
Bank Nizwa Financials 195 0.4
Ahli Bank Financials 173 1.4
National Bank Of Financials 117 0.2
Sembcorp Salalah Utilities 607 0.3
Bank Sohar Financials 292 0.3
Hsbc Bank Oman Financials 255 0.1
Raysut Cement Co Materials 174 0.1
Oman Telecommuni Telecoms 1,249 0.9
Bankmuscat Saogg Financials 986 3.0
Ooredoo Telecoms 419 0.4
Ticker Name Sector FF Mkt Cap 3MADTV $ Performance
($mn) ($mn)
MSCI Oman 3,664 5.7
Beta to FM
MSCI Full MktCap, $bn
MSCI free float MktCap, $b
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos
Local Index
MktCap ($bn)
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn)
Weight in MSCI FM (%) GDP/Capita, $
MSCI Index Population, mn
2016 P/E CPI (year-end, %YoY)
2016 EPS Growth C/A balance (% of GDP)
Trailing P/B Government balance (% of GDP)
OmanFigure 432: Key data
Local Currency
S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
J
an-10
Jul-10
J
an-11
Jul-11
J
an-12
Jul-12
J
an-13
Jul-13
J
an-14
Jul-14
J
an-15
Jul-15
J
an-16
MSCI Pakistan, $ MSCI FM, $
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan
Jul-10
Jan
Jul-11
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-14
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
Oman 3M ADTV ($mn)
50%45%
5%Financials
Telecoms
Materials
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Oman Frontier
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Figure 439: Population, '000 Figure 440: Export destinations, total $54bn
Source: UN Source: IMF
Figure 441: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 442: Oman - rial
Source: IMF Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel
Figure 443: Bank lending growth vs GDP Figure 444: Real GDP % change, YoY
Source: IMF Source: IMF
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,0003,500
4,000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0-19 20-64 65+
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
200
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS CPI (average % YoY)
90
95
100
105
110
1150.02.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
OMR vs $ OMR vs EUR Oman REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Weaker
Stronger
0
2
4
6
8
1012
14
16
18
20
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY)
1.3
2.5
5.4
4.5
8.2
6.1
4.8 4.1
5.8
4.7
2.9
4.4
2.8
2.01.4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.350.4
0.45
China
UAE
Korea
Japan
Taiwan
SaudiArabia
India
Thailand
Pakistan
USA
% of total exports Value ($bn), 2014, RHS
100
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7/20
Strategy Renaissance CapitalX January 2016
Figure 446: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100) Figure 447: Economic outlook
PKR 2015 2016 2017
B-/B3 4.2 4.5 4.58.7% 1,427 n/a n/a
MXPK 189.9 193.6 197.3
7.8 3.2 6.0 4.1
0.6% -0.8 -0.5 -0.5
1.5 -5.3 -4.2 -3.3
0.7
24.1
7.0
16
19.9
KSE
66.3
571
72.3
Figure 448: Index and stock data
MktCap 12MF Trail 12MF Analys MSCI
($mn) 1M 3M 12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)
MXPK 24,090 -7.9 -14.6 -29.1 7.6 1.5 18.5 230 8.7
MCB PK 2,048 -10.7 -19.7 -44.5 8.1 1.5 18.4 19 14.6
HBL PK 2,387 -15.0 -17.8 -21.0 7.4 1.4 18.2 17 13.6
LUCK PK 1,489 -2.5 -9.1 -11.6 9.9 2.4 20.9 16 10.6
OGDC PK 4,468 -7.1 -21.0 -51.0 6.4 1.0 15.1 16 9.6
FFC PK 1,347 -6.8 -11.7 -19.5 8.7 3.1 59.4 17 8.7
ENGRO PK 1,329 -5.2 -13.6 -14.0 7.6 2.1 19.3 10 8.5
UBL PK 1,680 -6.5 -12.0 -22.1 6.4 1.2 19.6 19 7.2
PSO PK 832 -3.5 -6.6 -18.9 6.0 1.0 14.6 15 5.9
HUBC PK 1,129 -0.2 -1.7 17.2 9.7 3.2 33.9 15 5.6
NBP PK 1,065 -1.9 -6.3 -28.0 7.5 0.7 10.0 14 3.8
PPL PK 2,185 -6.3 -8.3 -36.2 8.3 1.2 13.7 17 3.1
INDU PK 778 3.8 -13.1 -0.3 9.0 3.0 32.1 10 2.2
FATIMA PK 761 -13.0 -20.8 -3.8 6.7 1.5 26.9 12 2.2
POL PK 481 -20.8 -32.1 -44.4 6.2 3.4 24.6 17 2.1
KEL PK 1,824 -4.6 -6.8 -23.6 6.4 1.4 23.5 11 1.3
PTC PK 705 -11.0 -18.5 -46.8 8.7 0.7 7.8 5 0.9
NESTLE PA 3,112 -9.8 -22.1 -33.8 32.5 23.4 85.4 1 -
BWCL PA . . . na . na -
Figure 449: 3MADTV, $mn Figure 450: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x) Figure 451: MSCI sector weights
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
Ptcl Telecoms 64 0.2
Nestle Pakistan Cons. Staples 3,112 0.0
Bestway Cement Materials 574 0.0
Fatima Fertilize Materials 154 0.4
Pak Oilfields Energy 143 1.5
K-Electric Ltd Utilities 93 0.5
Natl Bk Pakistan Financials 265 0.1
Pakistan Petrole Energy 218 1.9
Indus Motor Cons. Disc. 157 0.2
United Bank Ltd Financials 504 1.5
Pak State Oil Energy 422 1.7
Hub Power Co Utilities 386 0.8
Oil & Gas Develo Energy 672 2.1
Fauji Fertilizer Materials 614 1.5
Engro Corp Materials 591 4.6
Mcb Bank Ltd Financials 1,018 0.8
Habib Bank Ltd Financials 957 1.5
Lucky Cement Materials 731 1.3
Ticker Name Sector FF Mkt Cap 3MADTV $ Performance
($mn) ($mn)
MSCI Pakistan 6,988 19.9
Beta to FM
MSCI Full MktCap, $bn
MSCI free float MktCap, $b
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos
Local Index
MktCap ($bn)
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn)
Weight in MSCI FM (%) GDP/Capita, $
MSCI Index Population, mn
2016 P/E CPI (year-end, %YoY)
2016 EPS Growth C/A balance (% of GDP)
Trailing P/B Government balance (% of GDP)
PakistanFigure 445: Key data
Local Currency
S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
J
an-10
Jul-10
J
an-11
Jul-11
J
an-12
Jul-12
J
an-13
Jul-13
J
an-14
Jul-14
J
an-15
Jul-15
J
an-16
MSCI Pakistan, $ MSCI FM, $
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Pakistan 3M ADTV ($mn)
39%
30%
21%
7% 2%
1%
Financials
Materials
Energy
Utilities
Cons. Disc.
Telecoms
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Pakistan Frontier
101
-
7/25/2019 Frontier Pt2
8/20
Strategy Renaissance CapitalX January 2016
Figure 452: Population, '000 Figure 453: Export destinations, total $27bn
Source: UN Source: IMF
Figure 454: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 455: Pakistan - rupee
Source: IMF Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel
Figure 456: Bank lending growth vs GDP Figure 457: Real GDP % change, YoY
Source: IMF Source: IMF
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0-19 20-64 65+
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
40
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS CPI (average % YoY)
60
70
80
90
100
110
1201.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
11.0
13.0
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
PKR vs $ PKR vs EUR Pakistan REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Weaker
Stronger
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY)
7.5
9.0
5.8 5.5
5.0
0.4
2.6
3.6 3.8 3.74.0 4.2
4.5 4.5 5.2
0
1
2
3
4
56
7
8
9
10
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
EU
EuroArea
USA
China
UAE
Afghanistan
UK
Germany
Spain
SaudiArabia
% of total exports Value ($bn), 2014, RHS
102
-
7/25/2019 Frontier Pt2
9/20
Strategy Renaissance CapitalX January 2016
Figure 459: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100) Figure 460: Economic outlook
RON 2015 2016 2017
BBB-/Baa3 3.4 3.9 3.43.4% 8,807 9,251 9,951
MXRO 19.9 19.8 19.8
9.5 -0.5 1.1 2.5
-7.9% -0.7 -1.5 -2.0
0.9 -1.8 -2.6 -3.0
1.0
9.8
2.7
5
5.6
BET
13.4
10
8.1
Figure 461: Index and stock data
MktCap 12MF Trail 12MF Analys MSCI
($mn) 1M 3M 12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)
MXRO 9,800 -9.2 -13.7 -8.4 9.1 0.9 6.7 45 3.4
TLV RE 1,669 -5.0 -9.8 22.1 11.0 1.5 11.6 9 42.7
SNG RE 2,209 -11.2 -20.9 -34.5 6.3 na 14.2 9 16.2
EL RE 956 -6.4 -5.2 -10.8 11.2 na 5.9 8 15.7
BRD RE 1,695 -14.8 -12.5 -1.3 10.0 1.2 10.9 11 15.5
SNP RE , - . - . - . . . . .
FP RE 1,842 -8.8 -13.2 -17.0 na na na 8 -
TGN RE 740 -6.8 -3.6 -6.7 7.3 0.9 11.4 6 -
TEL RE 480 -6.5 0.8 -11.7 6.9 1.2 8.9 8 -
SNN RE 438 -6.4 -15.2 -26.8 9.0 0.2 2.4 5 -
BVB RE - . - . - . . . . -
Figure 462: 3MADTV, $mn Figure 463: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x) Figure 464: MSCI sector weights
Note: gaps reflect lack of analyst estimates; spikes reflect change in index constituents
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
Bursa De Valori Financials 46 0.0
Transgaz Sa Medi Energy 307 0.3
Transelectrica S Utilities 198 0.3
Societatea Natio Utilities 77 0.0
Brd-Groupe Socie Financials 418 0.7
Omv Petrom Sa Energy 269 0.5
Sc Fondul Propri na 1,492 1.9
Banca Transilvan Financials 1,168 2.9
Societatea Natio Energy 441 0.9
Electrica Sa Utilities 427 0.7
Ticker Name Sector FF Mkt Cap 3MADTV $ Performance
($mn) ($mn)
MSCI Romania 2,723 5.6
Beta to FM
MSCI Full MktCap, $bn
MSCI free float MktCap, $b
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos
Local Index
MktCap ($bn)
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn)
Weight in MSCI FM (%) GDP/Capita, $
MSCI Index Population, mn
2016 P/E CPI (year-end, %YoY)
2016 EPS Growth C/A balance (% of GDP)
Trailing P/B Government balance (% of GDP)
RomaniaFigure 458: Key data
Local Currency
S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
J
an-10
Jul-10
J
an-11
Jul-11
J
an-12
Jul-12
J
an-13
Jul-13
J
an-14
Jul-14
J
an-15
Jul-15
J
an-16
MSCI Romania, $ MSCI FM, $
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan
Jul-10
Jan
Jul-11
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-14
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
Romania 3M ADTV ($mn)
58%26%
16%Financials
Energy
Utilities
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Romania Frontier
103
-
7/25/2019 Frontier Pt2
10/20
-
7/25/2019 Frontier Pt2
11/20
Strategy Renaissance CapitalX January 2016
Figure 472: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100) Figure 473: Economic outlook
RSD 2015 2016 2017
BB-/B1 0.5 1.5 2.00.2% 5,102 5,268 5,556
MXRS 7.2 7.2 7.2
na 2.5 4.1 4.0
na -4.0 -3.9 -3.9
0.6 -3.9 -3.8 -3.0
0.3
1.0
0.2
2
0.0
BELEXLIN
2.6
42
0.5
Figure 474: Index and stock data
MktCap 12MF Trail 12MF Analys MSCI
($mn) 1M 3M 12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)
MXRS 1,021 -3.2 -1.5 -5.0 41.1 0.6 0.7 3 0.2
NIIS SG 823 -7.4 -12.9 -22.9 na 0.5 na 3 66.2
AERO SG 294 -15.3 -21.2 -2.7 na 1.3 na 0 33.8
KMBN SG 234 -2.3 -8.9 -31.9 5.3 0.4 6.5 1 -
ENHL SG 97 1.0 0.9 6.3 na 1.3 na 0 -
FITO SG 52 -2.0 2.6 17.8 na 1.3 na 0 -
SJPT SG 112 0.6 42.8 34.5 na 1.2 na 1 -
IMLK SG 369 -0.3 9.8 -17.8 na 4.0 na 0 -
ALFA SG 50 -2.3 11.7 56.4 na 0.9 na 0 -
TGAS SG 73 -5.9 -1.9 47.4 na 0.7 na 0 -
AIKB SG 134 0.4 -0.9 10.6 7.3 0.3 4.6 0 -
MTLC SG 22 -1.2 3.7 12.7 na 0.8 na 0 -
JESV SG 13 -15.5 -6.2 -13.0 na 0.7 na 0 -
JMBN SG 13 -4.3 -11.9 36.0 na 0.3 na 0 -
PLNN SG 13 9.8 10.0 3.9 na 1.3 na 0 -
BMBI SG 140 -4.5 -9.1 -34.6 na 3.1 na 0 -
EPEN SG 39 -10.0 28.3 69.8 na 4.0 na 0 -
GMON SG 4 -6.4 -3.2 -22.6 na 0.3 na 0 -
INNK SG - . - . . na na na -
Figure 475: 3MADTV, $mn Figure 476: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x) Figure 477: MSCI sector weights
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
Jedinstvo Sevojn Industrials 6 0.0
Jubmes Financials 5 0.0
Planinka Ad Kur na 5 0.0
Bambi Ad Pozarev Cons. Staples 5 0.0
Energoprojekt En na 4 0.0
Messer Tehnogas Materials 13 0.0
Aik Banka Ad Financials 12 0.2
Metalac Ad Gornj Cons. Disc. 12 0.0
Gosa Montaza Ad Industrials 3 0.0
Industrijske Nek Financials 3 0.0
Industrials 45 0.0
Galenika Materials 38 0.0
Sojaprotein Ad Cons. Staples 21 0.0
Imlek Ad Cons. Staples 13 0.0
Alfa Plam Ad Vra Cons. Disc. 13 0.0
MktCap ($bn)
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn)
Ticker Name Sector FF Mkt Cap 3MADTV $ Performance
($mn) ($mn)
MSCI Serbia 165 0.0
Nis Ad Novi Sad Energy 109 0.0
Aerodrom Nikola Industrials 56 0.0
Komercijalna Ban Financials 74 0.0
Energoprojekt Ho
SerbiaFigure 471: Key data
Local Currency
S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)Weight in MSCI FM (%) GDP/Capita, $
MSCI Index Population, mn
2016 P/E CPI (year-end, %YoY)
2016 EPS Growth C/A balance (% of GDP)
Trailing P/B Government balance (% of GDP)
Beta to FM
MSCI Full MktCap, $bn
MSCI free float MktCap, $b
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos
Local Index 40
60
80
100
120
140
160
J
an-10
Jul-10
J
an-11
Jul-11
J
an-12
Jul-12
J
an-13
Jul-13
J
an-14
Jul-14
J
an-15
Jul-15
J
an-16
MSCI Serbia, $ MSCI FM, $
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
Jan
Jul-10
Jan
Jul-11
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-14
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
MSCI Serbia 3M ADTV ($mn)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Jan
Jul-10
Jan
Jul-11
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-14
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
n/a
66%
34%Energy
Industrials
105
-
7/25/2019 Frontier Pt2
12/20
Strategy Renaissance CapitalX January 2016
Figure 478: Population, '000 Figure 479: Export destinations, total $15bn
Source: UN Source: IMF
Figure 480: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 481: Serbia - dinar
Source: IMF Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel
Figure 482: Bank lending growth vs GDP Figure 483: Real GDP % change, YoY
Source: IMF Source: IMF
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0-19 20-64 65+
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
00
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS CPI (average % YoY)
0
50
100
150
200
250
3000.020.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
RSD vs $ RSD vs EUR Serbia REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Weaker
Stronger
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY) 9.0
5.54.9
5.95.4
-3.1
0.61.4
-1.0
2.6
-1.8
0.51.5
2.03.5
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.50.6
0.7
EU
EuroArea
Italy
Germany
BosniaandHerze
Russia
Romania
Montenegro
Macedonia,
FYR
Slovenia
% of total exports Value ($bn), 2014, RHS
106
-
7/25/2019 Frontier Pt2
13/20
Strategy Renaissance CapitalX January 2016
Figure 485: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100) Figure 486: Economic outlook
EUR 2015 2016 2017
A-/Baa3 2.3 1.8 2.02.3% 20,712 21,308 22,275
MXSV 2.1 2.1 2.1
10.9 -0.2 1.9 1.9
-1.6% 6.7 6.2 5.7
1.3 -3.7 -5.3 -5.0
0.7
2.7
1.9
2
0.7
SBITOP
4.6
7
1.1
Figure 487: Index and stock data
MktCap 12MF Trail 12MF Analys MSCI
($mn) 1M 3M 12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)
MXSL 2,746 -4.7 -3.3 -5.7 10.4 1.3 11.4 11 2.3
KRKG SV 2,221 -4.7 -3.5 5.1 11.3 1.4 11.5 9 87.5
ZVTG SV . . - . . . . .
PETG SV 592 3.8 1.5 -10.4 na 1.0 10.6 2 -
POSR SV 242 1.0 1.5 -22.4 6.3 0.8 11.6 2 -
TLSG SV 518 -1.2 -10.6 -53.0 9.3 0.7 5.9 2 -
LKPG SV 346 0.5 -1.9 -4.5 9.2 1.1 10.8 3 -
- . - . - . . . . -
Figure 488: 3MADTV, $mn Figure 489: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x) Figure 490: MSCI sector weights
Valuation for local index due to lack of history for MSCI Index
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
Gorenje Velenje Cons. Disc. .
Pozavarovalnica Financials 146 0.0
Telekom Sloven Telecoms 140 0.1
Luka Koper Industrials 100 0.1
Krka Healthcare 1,641 0.5
Zavarovalnica Tr Financials 239 0.2
Petrol Dd Ljublj Cons. Disc. 390 0.1
Ticker Name Sector FF Mkt Cap 3MADTV $ Performance
($mn) ($mn)
MSCI Slovenia 1,880 0.7
Beta to FM
MSCI Full MktCap, $bn
MSCI free float MktCap, $b
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos
Local Index
MktCap ($bn)
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn)
Weight in MSCI FM (%) GDP/Capita, $
MSCI Index Population, mn
2016 P/E CPI (year-end, %YoY)
2016 EPS Growth C/A balance (% of GDP)
Trailing P/B Government balance (% of GDP)
SloveniaFigure 484: Key data
Local Currency
S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
J
an-10
Jul-10
J
an-11
Jul-11
J
an-12
Jul-12
J
an-13
Jul-13
J
an-14
Jul-14
J
an-15
Jul-15
J
an-16
MSCI Slovenia, $ MSCI FM, $
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Slovenia 3M ADTV ($mn)
87%
13% Healthcare
Financials
5
7
9
11
13
15
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
SBITOP Index Frontier
107
-
7/25/2019 Frontier Pt2
14/20
Strategy Renaissance CapitalX January 2016
Figure 491: Population, '000 Figure 492: Export destinations, total $36bn
Source: UN Source: IMF
Figure 493: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 494: Slovenia - euro
Source: IMF Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel
Figure 495: Bank lending growth vs GDP Figure 496: Real GDP % change, YoY
Source: IMF Source: IMF
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0-19 20-64 65+
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS CPI (average % YoY)
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
EUR vs $ Slovenia REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Weaker
Stronger
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY)
4.4 4.0
5.76.9
3.3
-7.8
1.20.6
-2.7
-1.1
3.02.3 1.8 2.0 2.0
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
EU
EuroArea
Germany
Italy
Austria
Croatia
Hungary
France
Russia
Slovakia
% of total exports Value ($bn), 2014, RHS
108
-
7/25/2019 Frontier Pt2
15/20
Strategy Renaissance CapitalX January 2016
Figure 498: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100) Figure 499: Economic outlook
LKR 2015 2016 2017
B+/B1 6.5 6.5 6.51.8% 3,768 4,061 4,403
MXLK 21.1 21.3 21.4
10.9 3.2 3.6 5.0
6.1% -2.0 -2.0 -2.0
1.4 -5.9 -6.4 -6.2
0.5
3.2
1.4
3
1.5
CSEALL
18.8
288
5.6
Figure 500: Index and stock data
MktCap 12MF Trail 12MF Analys MSCI
($mn) 1M 3M 12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)
MXLK 3,194 -11.8 -16.8 -29.8 10.6 1.4 11.0 24 1.8
JKH SL 1,276 -13.2 -15.5 -27.9 12.4 1.2 9.2 11 63.7
COMB SL 770 -9.2 -20.6 -34.5 8.1 1.6 17.4 10 30.1
CTC SL 1,265 -0.7 -1.8 -18.8 na 24.6 na 3 6.1
DFCC SL 276 -7.4 -16.2 -37.4 10.4 0.9 7.6 2 -
CINS SL 222 -10.0 -2.1 -18.6 na 1.7 na 1 -
DIST SL 454 -11.5 -22.4 -14.2 8.1 1.0 11.4 5 -
DIAL SL 576 -3.8 -11.6 -31.7 7.8 1.7 na 5 -
CFIN SL 164 -10.0 -10.5 -17.7 5.5 0.9 14.9 1 -
ASIR SL 187 -0.5 -2.5 -2.3 17.3 3.9 19.7 2 -
AEL SL 153 -5.6 -9.1 -24.6 8.4 1.4 14.3 6 -
BUKI SL 283 -21.0 -34.7 -48.2 na 1.7 na 0 -
CCS SL 280 1.2 5.4 44.2 11.5 3.4 26.4 1 -
CARG SL 257 -10.8 -10.1 1.0 na 2.9 na 0 -
CTHR SL 165 -7.2 -8.8 -15.2 na 1.4 na 0 -
CDB SL 32 -9.3 -13.5 -15.3 5.7 1.1 15.6 1 -
CARS SL 436 -7.7 -16.5 -30.3 na 1.5 na 0 -
CIC SL 61 -4.3 -11.3 3.6 na 1.2 na 1 -
AHUN SL - . - . - . . . . -
Figure 501: 3MADTV, $mn Figure 502: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x) Figure 503: MSCI sector weights
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
0.0
1.0
$ Performance
($mn) ($mn)
MSCI Sri Lanka 1,433 1.5
Dialog Axiata Pl Telecoms 67 0.2
Central Finance Financials 49 0.0
Cic Holdings Plc Materials 15 0.1
Aitken Spence H
146 0.0
John Keells Hldg Industrials 911 0.8
Commercial Bk Financials 434 0.6
Ceylon Tobacco Cons. Staples 89 0.1
Access Engineeri Industrials 38 0.2
Bukit Darah Plc Cons. Staples 35 0.0
Ceylon Cold Stor Cons. Staples 30 0.0
Asiri Hospitals Healthcare 46
Cons. Disc. 14
GDP/Capita, $
MSCI Index Population, mn
2016 P/E CPI (year-end, %YoY)
2016 EPS Growth C/A balance (% of GDP)
Trailing P/B Government balance (% of GDP)
Sri LankaFigure 497: Key data
Local Currency
S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)
Carson Cumberbat Cons. Staples 15 0.0
Cargills Ceylon Cons. Staples 30 0.0
Ct Holdings Plc Cons. Staples 29 0.1
Citizen Dev Bus Financials 17 0.0
Ticker
Weight in MSCI FM (%)
Name Sector FF Mkt Cap 3MADTV
Ceylinco Insuran Financials 120 0.0
Distilleries Co Cons. Staples 116 0.2
Beta to FM
MSCI Full MktCap, $bn
MSCI free float MktCap, $b
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos
Local Index
MktCap ($bn)
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn)
Dfcc Bank Plc Financials
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
J
an-10
Jul-10
J
an-11
Jul-11
J
an-12
Jul-12
J
an-13
Jul-13
J
an-14
Jul-14
J
an-15
Jul-15
J
an-16
MSCI Sri Lanka, $ MSCI FM, $
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan-10
Aug-10
Mar-11
Oct-11
May-12
Dec-12
Jul-13
Feb-14
Sep-14
Apr-15
Nov-15
Sri Lanka 3M ADTV ($mn)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan
Jul-10
Jan
Jul-11
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-14
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
Sri Lanka Frontier
64%
30%
6%
Industrials
Financials
Cons.Staples
109
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Figure 504: Population, '000 Figure 505: Export destinations, total $11bn
Source: UN Source: IMF
Figure 506: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 507: Sri Lanka - rupee
Source: IMF Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel
Figure 508: Bank lending growth vs GDP Figure 509: Real GDP % change, YoY
Source: IMF Source: IMF
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0-19 20-64 65+
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
00
5
10
15
20
25
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS CPI (average % YoY)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1201400.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
LKR vs $ LKR vs EUR Sri Lanka REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Weaker
Stronger
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY)
5.4
6.2
7.7
6.8
6.0
3.5
8.0 8.2
6.3
7.3 7.4
6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
EU
USA
EuroArea
UK
India
Italy
Germany
Belgium
Russia
UAE
% of total exports Value ($bn), 2014, RHS
110
-
7/25/2019 Frontier Pt2
17/20
Strategy Renaissance CapitalX January 2016
Figure 511: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100) Figure 512: Economic outlook
TND 2015 2016 2017
N/Ba3 1.0 3.0 4.00.7% 3,985 3,972 4,024
MXTN 11.1 11.2 11.3
11.1 4.4 4.0 3.9
14.6% -8.5 -7.0 -6.2
2.2 -5.7 -4.0 -3.2
0.1
1.4
0.6
2
0.1
TUSISE
7.6
56
1.6
Figure 513: Index and stock data
MktCap 12MF Trail 12MF Analys MSCI
($mn) 1M 3M 12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)
MXTN 1,372 4.5 0.0 -11.1 N/A N/A 2.2 na 4 0.7
BT TU 721 7.0 2.8 -11.4 na 2.3 na 2 61.1
BIAT TU . - . - . na . na .
SFBT TU 1,401 20.2 20.1 16.5 na 7.6 na 2 -
TJARI TU 519 9.2 3.9 1.3 na 2.7 na 2 -
PGH TU 434 -2.0 -4.3 -13.9 na 1.5 na 2 -
STB TU 411 -4.2 -8.7 41.5 7.4 na na 1 -
UIB TU 302 14.2 18.0 21.4 na 1.1 na 1 -
AB TU 263 -7.5 -15.8 -16.5 na 0.8 na 1 -
BH TU 219 30.4 39.7 83.6 na 0.9 na 1 -
STAR TU 189 6.5 2.4 5.6 na 1.3 na 1 -
MAG TU 140 12.5 -0.7 -26.0 na 79.1 na 1 -
ARTES TU 136 20.0 16.4 -9.1 na 2.2 na 1 -
MNP TU 132 -3.4 -5.3 -23.0 na 3.9 na 1 -
UBCI TU 255 0.0 4.2 -4.2 na 1.8 na 1 -
BNA TU 180 9.9 -10.1 43.8 na 0.6 na 1 -
TRE TU 89 1.5 0.7 -2.4 na 1.4 na 1 -
AST TU 79 -3.1 -7.3 -30.9 na 1.6 na 0 -
ATB TU . - . - . na . na -
Figure 514: 3MADTV, $mn Figure 515: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x) Figure 516: MSCI sector weights
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
Tunis Re Financials 89 0.0
Cie D'Assur-Astr Financials 79 0.0
Arab Tunisian Bk Financials 76 0.0
Soc Nouvelle Mai Cons. Disc. 132 0.0
Union Bancaire Financials 125 0.0
Banque Natl Agri Financials 91 0.2
Soc Tunsienne D' Financials 189 0.0
Societe Magasin Cons. Disc. 140 0.0
Artes Cons. Disc. 136 0.0
Union Intl Banq Financials 302 0.1
Amen Bank Financials 263 0.0
Banq De L'Habita Financials 219 0.0
Attijari Bank Financials 519 0.1
Poulina Group Financials 434 0.0
Soc Tunisienne B Financials 386 0.0
Banq Tunisie Financials 360 0.1
Banq Intl Arabe Financials 227 0.0
Soc Frigorifique Cons. Staples 1,401 0.1
Weight in MSCI FM (%) GDP/Capita, $
MSCI Index
Ticker Name Sector FF Mkt Cap 3MADTV $ Performance
($mn) ($mn)
MSCI Tunisia 586 0.1
Beta to FM
MSCI Full MktCap, $bn
MSCI free float MktCap, $b
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos
Local Index
MktCap ($bn)
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn)
2016 P/E CPI (year-end, %YoY)
2016 EPS Growth C/A balance (% of GDP)
Trailing P/B Government balance (% of GDP)
TunisiaFigure 510: Key data
Local Currency
S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)
Population, mn
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
J
an-10
Jul-10
J
an-11
Jul-11
J
an-12
Jul-12
J
an-13
Jul-13
J
an-14
Jul-14
J
an-15
Jul-15
J
an-16
MSCI Tunisia, $ MSCI FM, $
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Jan
Jul-10
Jan
Jul-11
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-14
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
Tunisia 3M ADTV ($mn)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan
Jul-10
Jan
Jul-11
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-14
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
n/a
100%
Financials
111
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18/20
Strategy Renaissance CapitalX January 2016
Figure 517: Population, '000 Figure 518: Export destinations, total $15bn
Source: UN Source: IMF
Figure 519: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 520: Tunisia - dinar
Source: IMF Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel
Figure 521: Bank lending growth vs GDP Figure 522: Real GDP % change, YoY
Source: IMF Source: IMF
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0-19 20-64 65+
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
00
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS CPI (average % YoY)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1201400.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Jan-00
Dec-00
Nov-01
Oct-02
Sep-03
Aug-04
Jul-05
Jun-06
May-07
Apr-08
Mar-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Dec-11
Nov-12
Oct-13
Sep-14
Aug-15
TND vs $ TND vs EUR Tunisia REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Weaker
Stronger
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY)6.0
4.0
5.76.3
4.5
3.12.6
-1.9
3.7
2.3 2.3
1.0
3.0
4.04.6
-3
-2
-1
0
1
23
4
5
6
7
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
EU
EuroArea
France
Italy
Germany
Libya
USA
Algeria
Spain
UK
% of total exports Value ($bn), 2014, RHS
112
-
7/25/2019 Frontier Pt2
19/20
Strategy Renaissance CapitalX January 2016
Figure 524: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100) Figure 525: Economic outlook
VND 2015 2016 2017
BB-/B1 6.5 6.4 6.04.1% 2,171 2,321 2,458
MXVN 91.6 92.5 93.5
16.5 2.5 3.6 3.9
14.1% 0.7 -0.9 -0.2
2.3 -6.9 -6.7 -5.9
0.9
20.7
3.3
9
11.7
VNINDEX
48.2
307
74.4
Figure 526: Index and stock data
MktCap 12MF Trail 12MF Analys MSCI
($mn) 1M 3M 12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)
MXVI 20,725 -4.6 -9.4 -13.4 16.1 2.3 12.5 51 4.1
VIC VM 4,007 6.0 4.1 20.9 17.5 4.0 15.7 9 34.7
MSN VM 2,439 -5.9 -0.7 -15.6 20.3 3.4 na 7 25.9
VCB VM 4,971 -4.7 -10.8 7.8 18.0 2.4 13.9 6 12.1
STB VM 918 -4.6 -17.0 -26.5 31.8 0.9 3.1 6 7.3
HPG VM 908 -3.6 -12.1 -19.8 5.4 1.4 24.0 9 5.5
BID VM 2,588 -17.8 -30.1 -7.2 13.0 1.4 11.6 4 3.9
BVH VM 1,564 -4.3 -14.5 40.0 25.2 2.8 10.4 3 3.8
HNG VM 491 -45.8 -45.0 -55.0 na 0.9 na 0 3.7
GAS VM 3,346 8.8 -15.5 -51.4 9.5 1.8 20.4 7 3.0
VNM VM 6,272 -7.5 -1.9 27.4 17.2 7.3 37.6 10 -
FPT VM 831 -2.7 -5.3 7.0 8.4 2.2 25.6 10 -
EIB VM 582 -2.4 -10.5 -29.5 33.8 0.9 2.7 3 -
MBB VM 1,038 4.2 3.5 -3.7 8.3 1.0 12.3 8 -
SSI VM 443 -6.9 -13.3 -3.3 9.3 1.5 14.3 2 -
HT1 VM 368 -1.0 0.2 23.5 10.0 1.8 17.2 4 -
MWG VM 476 -8.3 -0.1 -30.8 7.3 4.7 43.7 6 -
CTG VM 2,885 -5.8 -17.2 -12.1 12.9 1.2 9.7 4 -
CTD VM - . . . . . . -
Figure 527: 3MADTV, $mn Figure 528: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x) Figure 529: MSCI sector weights
Sources for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI
Mobile World Inv Cons. Disc. 248 0.6
Vietnam Js Comm Financials 224 0.6
Coteccons Jsc Industrials 184 0.3
Military Commerc Financials 389 0.6
Saigon Securitie Financials 318 2.0
Hatien 1 Cement Materials 305 0.1
Viet Nam Dairy P Cons. Staples 3,218 3.7
Fpt Corp IT 644 2.7
Vietnam Export-I Financials 437 0.1
Bao Viet Holding Financials 121 0.9
Hoang Anh Gia La Cons. Staples 131 0.4
Petrovietnam Gas Utilities 94 0.9
Sacombank Financials 242 0.4
Hoa Phat Grp Jsc Materials 175 1.6
Bank For Investm Financials 127 1.1
Vingroup Jsc Financials 1,160 2.9
Masan Group Corp Cons. Staples 857 1.4
Bank For Foreign Financials 388 1.6
Ticker Name Sector FF Mkt Cap 3MADTV $ Performance
($mn) ($mn)
MSCI Vietnam 3,295 11.7
Beta to FM
MSCI Full MktCap, $bn
MSCI free float MktCap, $b
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos
Local Index
MktCap ($bn)
No. of Companies
3M ADTV ($mn)
Weight in MSCI FM (%) GDP/Capita, $
MSCI Index Population, mn
2016 P/E CPI (year-end, %YoY)
2016 EPS Growth C/A balance (% of GDP)
Trailing P/B Government balance (% of GDP)
VietnamFigure 523: Key data
Local Currency
S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
J
an-10
Jul-10
J
an-11
Jul-11
J
an-12
Jul-12
J
an-13
Jul-13
J
an-14
Jul-14
J
an-15
Jul-15
J
an-16
MSCI Vietnam, $ MSCI FM, $
0
50
100
150
200
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Vietnam 3M ADTV ($mn)
0
5
10
15
20
Jan
Jul-10
Jan
Jul-11
Jan
Jul-12
Jan
Jul-13
Jan
Jul-14
Jan
Jul-15
Jan
Vietnam Frontier
62%
30%
5%
3% Financials
Cons.Staples
Materials
Utilities
113
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20/20
Strategy Renaissance CapitalX January 2016
Figure 530: Population, '000 Figure 531: Export destinations, total $146bn
Source: UN Source: IMF
Figure 532: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 533: Vietnam - dong
Source: IMF Source: Bloomberg, Bruegel
Figure 534: Bank lending growth vs GDP Figure 535: Real GDP % change, YoY
Source: IMF Source: IMF
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0-19 20-64 65+
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
80
5
10
15
20
25
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS CPI (average % YoY)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1600.0
5000.0
10000.0
15000.0
20000.0
25000.0
30000.0
35000.0
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
VND vs $ VND vs EUR Vietnam REER (Dec 07 = 100)
Weaker
Stronger
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY)
7.8 7.57.0 7.1
5.7 5.4
6.4 6.2
5.2 5.46.0
6.5 6.46.0 6.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
USA
EU
EuroArea
China
Japan
Korea
Germany
HongKong
Australia
Malaysia
% of total exports Value ($bn), 2014, RHS
