FRONTAL SYSTEMS CLIMATOLOGY OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA AND ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION...
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FRONTAL SYSTEMS CLIMATOLOGY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA AND ASSOCIATED
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION IN A CLIMATE GCM
SIMULATION
Iracema FA Cavalcanti
Luiz Henrique R. Coura da SilvaThird Meeting of CoPis PROSUL/ IAI/CRN 055Mar del Plata, Oct.2002
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• SOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL• LARGE DISPERSION AMONG
MEMBERS
• LOW PREDICTABILITY
• OCCURRENCE OF ZCAS
• SOUTHERN BRAZIL• SMALL DISPERSION
• HIGHER PREDICTABILITY
• FRONTAL SYSTEMS
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CRITERIUM TO SELECT CASES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS
• SOUTHEASTERN: 20S-24S; 47W-43W
• SOUTHERN: 25S-35S; 48W-58W
• REDUCTION OF SPATIAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE ABOVE A LIMIT VALUE IN 3 DAYS.
• INCREASE OF SLP ABOVE A LIMIT VALUE IN 3 DAYS.
• SOUTHEARLY MERIDIONAL WIND .
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CASE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM OCCURRENCE OVER SOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL SIMULATED IN
ONE INTEGRATION
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PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
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ENSEMBLE AVERAGE
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Total de casos de Sistemas Frontais por estação
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
OUTONO INVERNO PRIMAVERA VERÃO
estações
oco
rrên
cias
Total
Total de casos de Sistemas Frontais por estação
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
OUTONO INVERNO PRIMAVERA VERÃO
estações
oco
rrên
cia
s
Total
COND1
COND2
COND3
COND4
COND9
COND8
COND7
COND5
COND6
Total de casos de Sistemas Frontais por estação
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
OUTONO INVERNO PRIMAVERA VERÃO
estações
oco
rrên
cias
Total
Total de casos de Sistemas Frontais por estação
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
OUTONO INVERNO PRIMAVERA VERÃO
estações
oco
rrên
cias
Total
Total de casos de Sistemas Frontais por estação
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
OUTONO INVERNO PRIMAVERA VERÃO
estações
oco
rrên
cias
Total
Total de casos de Sistemas Frontais por estação
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
OUTONO INVERNO PRIMAVERA VERÃO
estações
oco
rrên
cias
Total
Total de casos de Sistemas Frontais por estação
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
OUTONO INVERNO PRIMAVERA VERÃO
estações
oco
rrên
cias
Total
Total de casos de Sistemas Frontais por estação
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
OUTONO INVERNO PRIMAVERA VERÃO
estações
oco
rrên
cias
Total
Total de casos de Sistemas Frontais por estação
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
OUTONO INVERNO PRIMAVERA VERÃO
estações
oco
rrên
cias
Total
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
DJF MAM JJA SON
nu
mb
er o
f ca
ses
Seqüência1
SOUTH 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
DJF MAM JJA SON
nu
mb
er o
f ca
ses
SOUTHEAST
9 CONDITIONS
10 YEARS
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NUMBER OF CASES FOR SON SOUTH
Casos de Sistemas Frontais ocorridos para estação da primavera
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91
anos
ocor
rênc
ias
1ª Condição
2ª Condição
3ª Condição
4ª Condição
5ª Condição
6ª Condição
7ª Condição
8ª Condição
9ª Condição
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NUMBER OF CASES FOR SON SOUTHEAST
Casos de Sistemas Frontais ocorridos para estação da primavera
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91
anos
ocor
rênc
ias
1ª Condição
2ª Condição
3ª Condição
4ª Condição
5ª Condição
6ª Condição
7ª Condição
8ª Condição
9ª Condição
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AVERAGE FIELDS OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CASES OVER SOUTHERN REGION
SON 1990
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SON 1990
DAY -1 DAY +1
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AVERAGE FIELDS OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CASES OVER SOUTHERN REGION
MAM 1990
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MAM 1990DAY -1 DAY +1
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AVERAGE FIELDS OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CASES OVER SOUTHERN REGION
DJF 1990/1991
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DJF 1990/1991
DAY -1 DAY +1
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AVERAGE FIELDS OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CASES OVER SOUTHERN REGION
JJA 1990
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JJA 1990
DAY -1 DAY +1
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AVERAGE FIELDS OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CASES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN REGION
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EXTREME CASES OF PRECIPITATION
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IN DEVELOPMENT
• ANALYSIS OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS
• AND
• ANALYSE THE CONTRIBUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS TO THE PREDICTION OF MONTHLY AND SEASONAL PRECIPITATION