From Weather to Climate Scales:Estimating Water Resourcesand Flash Flood Forecasting

Baxter E. Vieux, Ph.D., P.E.Director, Natural Hazards and Disaster Research

National Weather CenterUniversity of Oklahoma

bvieux@ou.eduhttp://nhdr.ou.edu

Objectives

Water Resources Estimation- Hydrologic prediction from process scale to decadal and longer

projections of water resources availability Establish available water resources in Arbuckle-Simpson and

SE Oklahoma in areas of water dispute.

Short Term Forecasting- Flash Flood Forecasting in headwater basins Predict flood levels for emergency management

Water Resources Investigation Hourly, Decadal, 4x4 km

Flash flood forecasting and warnings 15 minute 1x1 km

NEXRAD Mesonet station (Centrahoma)(Photo obtained from Mesonet website)

Precipitation

Archival Radar Precipitation(1994-2004)

Statistical Analysis—

80-90 events per year

LB CAD 5.5-9 %

STDERR: ~.11 inches

Rainfall-Runoff SimulationsDecadal at Hourly Timesteps

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Distributed Water Resources Estimation(How much is available?)

Fig.1. Study Area and selected stationsMuddy Boggy and Clear Boggy watersheds are located in south central Oklahoma. Muddy Boggy and Clear Boggy Creeks are joined downstream and flow to Muddy Boggy River to its confluence with the Red River.

Water Balance ComponentsGroundwater Discharge

Fig. 5. Estimation of the Recession Index for RORA program

Segment of the graph obtained for Clear Boggy near Farris data. Red lines connect minimums in decline flow sections. Green lines and letters show the estimated days per log cycle. Recession index for a given period of time consists in the average of those flow values (A, B, C, D, E).

∆∆S = P – G – R – E - TS = P – G – R – E - T

∆S =Change in storageP = PrecipitationG = RechargeR = RunoffpET = Potential EvapotranspirationaET = Actual Evapotranspiration

Recharge (Groundwater Discharge)Actual v. Potential ET

Fig 6. Monthly and Annual RechargeMonthly and annual recharge (inches) estimated by running the RORA program for each USGS station. Mean Annual Recharge is shown per decades.

Fig 6. Monthly and Annual RechargeMonthly and annual recharge (inches) estimated by running the RORA program for each USGS station. Mean Annual Recharge is shown per decades.

Fig.11. Clear Boggy Potential and Actual Evapotranspiration Actual ET was estimated based on water budget and Potential ET for Clear BoggyFig.11. Clear Boggy Potential and Actual Evapotranspiration Actual ET was estimated based on water budget and Potential ET for Clear Boggy

Summer months—

Soil moisture depleted

Groundwater discharge is minimal

Average Annual streamflow permitting may account for storage Climate Variability

Comparison of simulated vs. observed cumulative runoff from January 1994

to October 2004 at the USGS streamflow station of Blue River near Blue

y = 1.0587x

R2 = 0.9917

y = 0.9925x

R2 = 0.993

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Evaluation of soil layer percolation

Soil Layer

If soil is saturated, then deep percolation is permitted to groundwater

Recharge as percolation through soil layer map from 1994 to 2004

Distributed Recharge Estimates

Source Recharge (in/yr)

Mean recharge from the Deep-perc recharge map at the Arbuckle-Simpson Aquifer Region

3.7

Recharge from RORA at Blue River near Blue

3.73

Recharge from Circular-91

4.7

NWS FO HeadwatersCollaborative Pilot Project Operational for 3 basins

in the NWS FO Planned addition 7

basins High resolution

distributed model’ Gauge-adjusted radar

rainfall derived from Level II and Oklahoma Mesonet.

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Urban and Rural BasinSimulation

NWS FO Pilot Headwater Flash Flood Forecasting

March 4-5, 2004

CASA Radar Hydrologic Forecasting

<1.751.76 - 22.01 - 2.252.26 - 2.52.51 - 2.752.76 - 33.01 - 3.253.26 - 3.53.51 - 3.753.76 - 44.01 - 4.254.26 - 4.54.51 - 4.754.76 - 5> 5.01

<1.751.76 - 22.01 - 2.252.26 - 2.52.51 - 2.752.76 - 33.01 - 3.253.26 - 3.53.51 - 3.753.76 - 44.01 - 4.254.26 - 4.54.51 - 4.754.76 - 5> 5.01

January 21, 1998 Vflo simulated hydrographs at Harris Gully outlet

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1/22/1998 0:00 1/22/1998 2:00 1/22/1998 4:00 1/22/1998 6:00 1/22/1998 8:00 1/22/1998 10:00 1/22/1998 12:00

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ObservedHgul_20m_19980121_50satHgul_40m_19980121_50satHgul_60m_19980121_50satHgul_80m_19980121_50sat

Questions?

Lake of the Arbuckles