FROM THE 2020-PACKAGE TO THE WINTER PACKAGE WHICH … · The “Renewable Energy Sources“...
Transcript of FROM THE 2020-PACKAGE TO THE WINTER PACKAGE WHICH … · The “Renewable Energy Sources“...
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FROM THE 2020 -PACKAGE TO THE W INTER PACKAGE WHICH WAY FOR WARD FOR RENEWABLES IN EUROPE ?
W o r k s h o p
“ E U C l e a n E n e r g y P a c k a g e E x p l a i n e d t o M e d i t e r r a n e a n C o u n t r i e s ”
M e d i t e r r a n e a n F o r u m o n E l e c t r i c i t y a n d C l i m a t e C h a n g e
P r o f . D r . M a r i o R a g w i t z , F r a u n h o f e r I S I
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Need for a new ambition level after Paris?
Current status of renewable energy in the EU
Key elements of the EU‘s renewable energy policy for 2020
The 2030 Energy Union Governance
The 2030 Renewable Energy Directive
Contents
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Need for a new ambition level after Paris?
Current status of renewable energy in the EU
Key elements of the EU‘s renewable energy policy for 2020
The 2030 Energy Union Governance
The 2030 Renewable Energy Directive
Contents
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Af te r the Par is agreement the ambi t ion leve l o f
g loba l c l imate po l i cy changed d ramat ica l l y !
[Source: IEA WEO 2016]
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Al ready fo r the 2 ° scenar io (450 ppm)
renewab les need to con t r ibu te the l ions share !
[Source: IEA WEO 2016]
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Deser t power enab les c l imate ac t ion
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The cos ts o f renewab les have reduced
mass ive ly – a lso w i th in t roduc t ion o f auc t ions !
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Solar and wind is now either the same price or cheaper than new fossil fuel capacity in more than 30 countries, according to a new report from the World Economic Forum.
Before 2013, when renewable technologieswere still largely uncompetitive, solar andwind average annual returns were -11% and-6% respectively (negative returns!). After theturning point in technology, returns jumped to10% and 17% (positive returns!).
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/solar-and-wind-power-cheaper-than-fossil-fuels-for-the-first-time-a7509251.html
https://www.weforum.org/whitepapers/renewable-infrastructure-investment-handbook-a-guide-for-institutional-investors
Globa l economic leaderscons ider RES mainst ream
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Need for a new ambition level after Paris?
Current status of renewable energy in the EU
Key elements of the EU‘s renewable energy policy for 2020
The 2030 Energy Union Governance
The 2030 Renewable Energy Directive
Contents
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His to r i c deve lopment of a l l RES -E in the EU-28
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His to r i c deve lopment of a l l RES -E in the EU-28
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His to r i c deve lopment of new RES-E in the EU-28
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His to r i c deve lopment of new RES-H in the EU-28
► Solid Biomass dominates RES-H sector.
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His to r i c deve lopment of new RES-T in the EU-28
► Biodiesel and Bioethanol dominate RES-T sector.
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Need for a new ambition level after Paris?
Current status of renewable energy in the EU
Key elements of the EU‘s renewable energy policy for 2020
The 2030 Energy Union Governance
The 2030 Renewable Energy Directive
Contents
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EU Targets and Pol ic ies – 2020 perspect ive
EU Climate and Energy Package: “20 20 20” objective20% reduction in GHG emissions over 199020% reduction in primary energy demand through energy efficiency20% share of renewable energy (gross final energy)10% Biofuels in the transport sector
National support schemes will remain the cornerstones of the deployment of renewables in Europe + RES-H building obligations in EU27
Flexibility mechanisms between EU Member States: Statistical transferJoint projects between Member States Joint support schemes
Measures to reduce non-economic barriers
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The “Renewab le Ene rgy Sources“ D i rec t i ve 2009
Source: CE Delft, 2015
Policy MeasuresArticle of the Renewable
Energy Directive
Mandatory national overall targets for 2020 3
Mandatory national targets for renewable energy in transport: 10% in 2020 3
National renewable energy action plans 4
Statistical transfers between Member States 6-12
Admin. Procedures, regulations and codes 13
Information and training 14
Guarantees of origin of electricity, heating and cooling produced from
renewable energy sources 15
Access to and operation of the grids 16
Sustainability criteria for biofuels and bioliquids 17-19, 21
Reporting by the Member States 22-23
Policy Measures:
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How the European Commission set the targets … „FLAT RATE“ & „GDP-Variation“
… i.e.: RES-target2020 = RES2005% + 50% *RESNEW % + 50%*“RESNEW % GDP-weighting“-“first mover bonus“
Note: Additional potentials do not include biofuel imports from abroad
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Au
str
ia
Be
lgiu
m
Bu
lga
ria
Cypru
s
Czech
Re
pu
blic
Den
ma
rk
Esto
nia
Fin
lan
d
Fra
nce
Ge
rma
ny
Gre
ece
Hun
ga
ry
Ire
lan
d
Ita
ly
La
tvia
Lith
ua
nia
Lu
xe
mb
ou
rg
Ma
lta
Neth
erla
nd
s
Po
lan
d
Po
rtu
ga
l
Rom
an
ia
Slo
va
kia
Slo
ve
nia
Sp
ain
Sw
ed
en
Unite
d K
ing
do
m
EU
27
RE
S in
te
rms o
f (g
ross)
fin
al e
ne
rgy [
% o
f d
em
an
d]
RES share 2005
RES potential 2020 - share on current (2005) demand
RES target for 2020
Achieved RES deployment (2005), realisable RES potential up to 2020 and agreed RES target for 2020 by Member State
The ca lcu lat ion of the nat iona l RES targets for 2020 and the rea l i sab le potent ia l s
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Set national trajectories for the share of RES in transport, electricity, heating and cooling until 2020
Specify planned mix of different RE technologies
Cover policy measures to achieve targets such as cooperation between authorities
Specify planned statistical transfers with other countries
Create indicative trajectory tracing path towards achievement of goals
Measures to ensure biofuels comply with sustainability criteria
Form the basis for regular reporting of progress to the European Commission
2. Nat iona l Renewab le Energy Act ion P lans (NREAPs )
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Ach ievement s ta tus o f the NREAP P ro jec t ions
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Approach: “MS may agree on […] the statistical transfer of a specified amount of energy from RES from one MS to another MS”. (source: Directive 2009/28/EC, Art. 6)
Goals:
Take into account different RE potentials
Ensure cost-effectiveness of target compliance
Facilitate cross-border support of RE without affecting national support schemes
3. F l ex ib i l i t y /Coopera t ion Mechan i sms
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3. F l ex ib i l i t y /Coopera t ion Mechan i sms
Statistical transfers
Joint projects
Joint support schemes
Physical transfer from
3rd countries
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3.1: Statistical Transfer
Virtual transfer of energy from one MS statistic to the RES statistic
3.2: Joint projects between Member States
RES potentials are exploited jointly by two or more MS
MS define which share counts towards which MS‘s target
3.3: Joint support schemes
Merging RES support schemes and defining quantity allocation
3.4: Joint projects with third countries
Joint projects between MS and countries outside the EU
(Source: Klessmann et al., 2014)
3. F l ex ib i l i t y /Coopera t ion Mechan i sms
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Genera l po l i cy pa thways cur ren t l y poss ib le
w. r. t . coopera t ion w i th 3 rd count r ies
Source: Dii 2013
EU COM
Policy
Pathway
EU RE target and
harmonized support
schemes
Status quo, national RE
targets, but policy
convergence
Decarbonisation
without RE
targets (carbon
market and a
revised ETS)
Policy
Pathways
analyzed
Pathway A
Harmonized
FIP
Pathway B
Harmonized
Quota
Scheme
Pathway C
National
converged
schemes
Pathway C*
National
converged
schemes, joint
EU import
tenders
realistic options consideringcurrent proposal for2030-Governance
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Transition towards a long term reliable framework:
1. Pooling of Art. 9 Projects to facilitate transition of pathway C to C*
2. Definition of comparable RE targets in MENA countries
3. a) Extension of EU Energy Community to MENA countries and application of
Art. 6 virtual transfer possible but full market liberalization required
b) Continuation of pathway C* to ease the coordination of build up of
interconnectors, combining RES tenders with tenders for interconnectors
4. Introduction of fully harmonized premium system after full market integration
including a common CO2 market, energy subsidy phase-out and a reliable
regulatory framework for grid investments have been accomplished.
Next s teps for EU-MENA integrat ion of RES pol icy
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No regret options valid for all pathways:
• Introduction of non-discriminatory grid access and taxation regime
• Definition of national MENA RES targets comparable to EU
• Creation of regional power and balancing markets
• Unbundling of generation-, transmission- and distribution activities
• Regime for full IPP participation (transparent and non-discriminatory)
• Stepwise implementation of cost-reflective electricity prices
• Introduction of metering and certification schemes for RES
• Convergence of financing conditions
Additional elements for harmonized policy options:
• Existence EU-MENA power, balancing and carbon markets
• Common approach for burden sharing of RES support cost
Next s teps for EU-MENA integrat ion of RES pol icy
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EU Commission environment and energy state aid guidelines contains the following main requirements.
Support should be granted based on the following conditions:
Use of auctions (or Quota /TGCs) to determine remuneration level
Premium systems to support market compatibility – no premium payment during negative prices
Technology neutrality
Partial opening of national support schemes (Cross-border support schemes)
Sta te A id gu ide l ines
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Need for a new ambition level after Paris?
Current status of renewable energy in the EU
Key elements of the EU‘s renewable energy policy for 2020
The 2030 Energy Union Governance
The 2030 Renewable Energy Directive
Contents
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The Energy Union Governance sha l l apply to the 5 d imens ions of the Energy Union
Source: European Commission
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Genera l mot ivat ion and target s t ructure
• Strong role of renewables in Europe’s future energy mix ephasised by the
„Energy Road Map“ (COM(2011) 885/2): “Strong growth in renewables is the
so-called 'no regrets' option.”
• General motivations are security of supply, economic competitiveness and
environmental sustainability
• The European Council adopted a RES target of 27% by 2030 based on 40%
GHG savings and 30% (original 27%) energy efficiency targets
• Only an overall EU-binding target for RES
• No sectoral targets
• No national targets
• There was and is an intense discussion on the ambition level of the target
http://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/EmployRES-II%20final%20report_0.pdf
http://www.diacore.eu/ www.towards2030.eu
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1. The European Council agreed in October 2014 on an EU binding RES target, but excluded national binding targets.
2. What are the requirements for the future RES governance?
EU target should be “fulfilled through Member States contributions guided by the need to deliver collectively the EU target”
All Member States should contribute need to define their fair share
Increased flexibility for Member States (compared to 2020 framework)
RES investors will need transparency and reliability to deliver the target need for transparent and reliable planning framework; enforcement of EU target
Reliable national commitments also needed to coordinate investments in grids and generation assets
3. What-if-questions not sufficiently solved so far - What if national plans and actual RES deployment do not add up to 27%?
2030 governance for RES: Del ive r on the
2030 ta rge ts wh i le ensur ing MS f lex ib i l i t y
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2020-targets used as baseline. If not met by 2021 payment to fund required
(Art.27(4)) good solution to keep 2020 targets effective
Mechanism to avoid ambition gap (Art. 27 (1))
Measures at Union level
Mechanism to close implementing gap (Art. 27 (3-4))
Issue recommendations for MS
Measures at Union level in addition to recommendations
Additional measures by MS (H&C/T quotas, funds, others)
Additional idea: Using the gap-filler as a tool to implement cooperation projects
with 3rd countries?
Governance: Gap-F i l le r + Addi t iona l i s sues
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Generally GDP and employment impacts of policy scenarios on EU level
are below 1% change compared to BAU, i.e. renewable energy policy will not
cause radical changes of EU economy
A 30% RES target as compared to the reference case by 2030 leads to
positive GDP and Employment impacts, which amount to
between 0.1 and 0.4% of EU GDP
Net employment benefits up to 720 thousand
Positive GDP and employment impacts are higher for 35% RES:
between 0.1% and 0.8% of EU GDP
Net employment benefits up to 1.5 million
Conf i rming the Roadmap: RES pol icy is
indeed a 'no regrets ' opt ion by 2030
Source: Employ-RES II project
http://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/documents/EmployRES-II%20final%20report_0.pdf
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Ambi t ion leve l o f 2030 target on EU -28 leve l
- ne t ve rsus g ross i nc rease o f t o t a l RES gene ra t i on
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Incr
eas
e o
f R
ES g
en
era
tio
n b
y d
eca
de
[T
Wh
/a]
Net increase
Gross increase
2010 to 2020 2020 to 2030
Net and gross increase of renewable
generation at EU level by decade
(2010-2020 vs. 2020-2030) across all
energy sectors
Source: Towards2030 project
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Incr
eas
e o
f R
ES-
E g
en
era
tio
n b
y d
eca
de
[T
Wh
/a]
Net increase
Gross increase
2010 to 2020 2020 to 2030
Ambi t ion leve l o f 2030 target on EU -28 leve l
- ne t ve rsus g ross i nc rease o f RES-E gene ra t i on
Net and gross increase of renewable
electricity generation at EU level by
decade (2010-2020 vs. 2020-2030)
Source: Towards2030 project
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Member States' contribution setting process in the area of renewable energy
1. When setting their contribution for their share of energy from renewable sources in gross final
consumption of energy in 2030 … Member States shall take into account the following:
(a) the measures provided for in [recast of Directive 2009/28/EC as proposed by COM(2016) 767];
(b) the measures adopted to reach the energy efficiency target adopted pursuant to Directive 2012/27/EU [version as amended in accordance with proposal COM(2016)761];
(c) other measures to promote renewable energy within Member States and at Union level; and
(d) circumstances affecting renewable energy deployment, such as:
(i) equitable distribution of deployment across the European Union;
(ii) economic potential;
(iii) geographical and natural constraints, including those of non-interconnected areas and regions; and
(iv) the level of power interconnection between Member States.
2. Member States shall collectively ensure that the sum of their contributions adds up to at least 27% of energy produced from renewable sources in gross final energy consumption at Union level by 2030
2030 governance for RES: Del ive r on the
2030 ta rge ts – ar t i c le 5 governance regu la t ion
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Possib le benchmark example: Apply ing
the 2020- logic to 2030- target
Source: Towards2030 project
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Deviation of the flat-rate benchmark from the 2020 allocation method in percentage points
countries with higher GDP per TFEC get (slightly) lower relative targets
How to break down the EU wide target?
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Deviation of the GDP-based benchmark (default) from the 2020 allocation method in percentage points
countries with higher GDP per TFEC get (slightly) higher relative targets
How to break down the EU wide target?
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Planning and Reporting by the Member States moved from RED to Governance
Articles 3-13: Draft INECPs by 2018 (final 2019), draft update by 2023 (final 2024), every ten years
INECPs need to contain (Art. 3-4)
RES pledge + linear trajectory
Sectoral trajectory
Technology-specific trajectory
Policies
Energy sector projections until at least 2040
RES information reported on across several chapters
Governance: Integrated Nat iona l Energy and Cl imate P lans - INECPs
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Biennial progress reports on implementation of plans across 5 dimensions (Article 15-22)
EC entitled to amend Annex I on the template of the INECPs (Art. 3(4)) and to provide template for progress reports (Art. 15(3))
Long-term low emission strategies (Art. 14) until 2070 “in the context of necessary reductions according to the IPCC by developed countries as a group, to reduce emissions by 80 to 95 % by 2050 compared to 1990 levels in a cost-effective manner.” inconsistencies and lack of ambition potentially transparent
Governance: INECPs
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Payment into fund if 2020 RES target is not met
Several elements for gap filler explicitly mentioned
Additional Energy Union measures mentioned
“Early efforts” (implying benchmarks) mentioned several times
Regional cooperation mentioned
Exact consequence of missing ambition/implementation unclear
No quantitative benchmark (yet)
Governance – summary key e lements
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Need for a new ambition level after Paris?
Current status of renewable energy in the EU
Key elements of the EU‘s renewable energy policy for 2020
The 2030 Energy Union Governance
The 2030 Renewable Energy Directive
Contents
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Financial support for RES-E
Opening and stability
Priority dispatch and grid access Electricity regulation
Balancing responsibility Electricity regulation
Administrative issues
Self-consumption and energy communities
Obligation on heating and cooling
Transport
Overv iew - RED I I