FROM RECESSION TOTHE GREAT DEPRESSION II

LASTING TILL 2025

WHAT IS WRONG WITH AMERICA AND EUROPE AND THEIR MANAGEMENT GURUS AND THE NOBEL

LAURATES IN ECONOMICS?

DR. RAJU M. MATHEW

‘THE GREAT GLOBAL DEPRESSION 2009’• Starting as a financial melt down in 2009 with some banks and financial institutions, the

crisis spread to the housing and the entire finance sector and grown into the Great Depression extending to almost all European and industrialized countries.

• Rulers and the Nobel Laureates in Economics and Management Gurus, besides IMF and the World Bank, assured that it was a short term business cycle phenomena or Recession and it could be tied over with some Stimulus Packages and support of the BRIC countries.

• However, the world realized the ineffectiveness of the over-dozed Keynesian remedies to deal with ‘stimulus resistant bacteria or virus of consumerism with easy money or credit cards and earning quick money without investment, innovation, entrepreneurship and competitiveness. After the initial insulation effect, Brazil and China are in the grip of the Depression and India and Russia are on the verge of the Depression fueled with rising Corruptions.

• No doubt, what ever they call the crisis, it has emerged as The Great Global Depression 2009 lasting at least up to 2025. This cannot be solved with ‘The Keynesian Remedies’ of deficit financing and public spending or monetary or fiscal measures of a handful of countries. It needs Global Solutions involving all Nations or Peoples and Sectors, ensuring Sector and Regional Balances, ensuring Food, Dignity and Knowledge for the entire humanity.

• I have been telling the world that we need a different global strategy to deal with the Crisis and save the Humanity, starting from Feb. 2009 with my first work, (www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8978.html and over a dozen works, including Harvard blogs(blogs.hbr.org/...business.../are-business-schools-to-blame.html) and the last one, ‘The Coming of the Violent Revolutions ‘ (www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article32380.html).

NOBEL PRIZE IN ECONOMICS• America is the land of the Nobel Prize Winners in Economics for their works on

the Computation of Economic Data and Making Mathematical Modeling. America is the land of the of the Brain and Heart of Internet . It is the Champions of High Tech, Globalization, Credit or Smart Card, Internet Banking and e-Commerce.

• America is the land of the Top Business Schools, including Harvard and Stanford and Management Gurus. America is the land of the Powerful President, the Global Policeman. America can destroy any nation, besides Iraq. The UN, IMF and the World Bank are programmed to dance to the tune of the American President whose shadow spreads across the Europe and some parts of Asia.

• But America too is the Land of the Global Economic Crisis, capable of bringing out the Great Depression II lasting at least another ten more years and making at least One Generation ‘Lost’ for ever and carry out the pain on the next Generation. Nobody has any solution for the Crisis and increasing sufferings of over 80% of the Humanity.

GLOBALIZATION OF CRISIS

• The American Internet, the American Education, the American Models of Globalization, Industrialization, Consumerism and Corporatism and the American Dream or Wisdom exported to almost all nations through its Economists and Management Gurus and Business Schools or the World Bank have successfully Globalized its Economic Crisis and Blunders.

• Even the new born children in the remotest Asian or African village are not made free from the Global Economic Crisis, starting just as a ‘financial melt down’ and growing as ‘The Great Depression II’ extending at least till 2025. America has already killed ‘Capitalism’ and ‘Democracy’ though it claims as the Paradise of ‘Capitalism’ and ‘Democracy.’

THE PRICE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY• Information Technology, built upon linear and one-dimensional ‘data

structure’, has reduced everything into bits of ‘0’s or ‘1’s, in spite of its marvelous speed and data manipulation capabilities, including making projections, forecasting and models or simulations. IT has taken away the wisdom and thinking abilities of the American economists, including the Nobel Prize Winners, Management Experts, Financial Analysts and Decision Preparing Teams or Think Tanks who missed ‘Knowledge’ for Data and Information.

• They fooled themselves with some data or presentations, kept in their laptops , thinking that the Economy or even Economics can be reduced into a set of data or equations or formulas and they have solutions for all the ills of the American or the World Economy. Like data structure, their mind too have become linear and one-dimensional, unable to deal with non-linear and multi-dimensional economic issues. This is the price of Data at the cost of Wisdom and Knowledge which are the ‘out of range’ or reach of Information Technology. The collapse of the American education system has already been started.

DEATH OF THE AMERICAN CAPITALISM AND DEMOCRACY

• For the omnipotent ‘Corporatism, ‘Consumerism’, Aggressive Marketing’ and ever pervading Information Technology, Capitalism and Democracy are dead in America and also the other parts of the world.

• Concentration of wealth and power in the hands of the few, even in the form of highly powerful corporate houses, leads to the death of democracy, turning the American people into mere pseudo citizens or corporate slaves.

• Consumerism dried away the saving, investment, innovative, entrepreneurial and competitive capabilities of the common people that lead to the death of Capitalism. Without saving, investment, innovation, competition and entrepreneurship there is no capitalism.

POVERTY AND GLOBALIZATION

• Poverty and backwardness of the majority of the nations and richness and affluence of a handful of nations are as old as the humanity, as depicted in the Bible, the Quran, the Mythology and the Classics or even the Modern Literature.

• In such olden days, poverty and backwardness was only an issue of the victims and not of others; the rich and the affluent nations were the ‘Chosen Ones of the God’ and the rest the ‘Cursed Ones’. The chosen ones determined the fate of the Humanity.

• Thanks to Globalization and Information Communication Technology Revolution, every nation or people has become ‘The Chosen One’ capable of determining the balance or imbalance or even the fate of the Global Economy.

ECONOMY AND DATA ANALYSIS• For the Nobel Laureates in Economics and the other Economists, Financial

Analysts and Management Gurus, all economic and financial problems and activities can be reduced into a set of computer-generated and manipulated Data, Formulas, Equations and Models.

• For them, an economy is so simple that can be brought under Mathematical or Statistical Analysis, a blunder committed by the then USSR or East European Planners and Economists. Invariably, their approach is one-dimensional, linear and static within which nobody can bring an Economy, more correctly Political Economy.

• A Political Economy is Dynamic, Non-Linear, Multi-Dimensional and Extremely Complex, especially when Globalization is the rule. An economy, even if it is big or powerful, can never dictate the Global Economy, for it is just a part of the Global Economy and not the whole. That is why; the American or the Chinese rulers or planners with their sophisticated Data and Analytical Techniques or Stimulus Packages and the familiar Micro or Macro Economics cannot save their own economies.

• In fact they are aggravating and prolonging the Crisis with their strategies leading to ‘Inter-Sector and Inter-Regional Imbalances’, the root cause of the Crisis to emerge as the Great Depression II, lasting at least to 2025.

THE GROWING INTER-SECTOR AND INTER-REGIONAL IMBALANCES

• Economists and policy makers of the UN, IMF, World Bank and also of the National Governments, besides the World Economic Forum and think tanks think in terms of one or a handful of economies or peoples without bothering the World Economy and the Humanity as a whole or at lest over 80% of the world population.

• Both Islam and Christianity are not free from such sins, for they consider Abraham and his Tribe alone are ‘the Chosen’ to conquer the ‘Promised Land’ and all other peoples or races or tribes as ‘Cursed’ to be annihilated. The ideology of chosen people is the basis of Capitalism and Communism.

• The policies and strategies of these ‘Data Addicted’ and ‘IT Polluted’ rulers and experts lead to the over –dominance of the ‘Service or Tertiary Sector’ over Agriculture and Industrial Sectors; the dominance of some regions or nations over others; and the dominance of cities over villages or rural areas.

• This has resulted in the total imbalance and lop sided growth of the World Economy. We are heading towards great famine and severe shortage of food or farm products all over the world, capable of wiping out at least 20% of the world population. As long as such imbalances exist, the Crisis will be there and emerge as The Great Depression II and last at least 2025.

SET RIGHT THE IMBALANCES• The only strategy for the survival of the Humanity and freeing from the grip of ‘ The Great

Depression II’ is set right the Inter-Sector and Intger-Regional Imbalances. Without developing Agriculture, Rural and Farming Sectors, the humanity cannot survive; without them, no industrial or service sector growth is possible. In order to escape from the ‘Great Famine’ and ‘Acute Shortage Drinking Water’, a Five Fold Investment for Rural and Farming Sectors, including Infrastructure Development are required globally so as to generate income and employment to the billions.

• The World Economy cannot afford or sustain the development of a handful of countries, keeping the rest under hunger, ignorance and exploitation or poverty, that are the basis of religious fundamentalism ands terrorism.

• Men or women without hope or dream or material well being turn towards terror and religious fundamentalism without Spirituality and Humanism, claiming a particular religion or sect or interpretation as the only right or ‘Chosen’ one. America or the Western Europe cannot flourish or survive keeping millions in Asia or Africa under hunger, ignorance and oppression.

• No force on earth can dismantle Globalization and the World Political Economy and go back to the Age of the Warring Primitive Tribes of Abraham or Moses or their ideologies of ‘The Chosen People’ and ‘The Promised Land’. Everybody is chosen and entitled ‘Food. Dignity and Knowledge’ that empower the entire humanity and pave the way for a New global Social Order without Recessions or Depressions.