From Disaster to ResilienceChallenges and Opportunities for Disaster Prevention and Recovery

In Namibia

Hon. Prof. Peter Katjavivi, Director GeneralNational Planning CommissionOffice of the President, Namibiapkatjavivi@npc.gov.na

Namibia has always been a Dry Country

• Year Round “Wet Rivers” only occur at its international borders

• Historically, the only national disasters known to our young nation have been droughts and wildfires

The Memory of Living with Floods had been Lost…

• In the Caprivi and Kavango border regions, the last big floods occurred in the 1960-1970s

• After a 20-year calm, the North and Northeastern Namibia were hit by alternating flood and drought events.

• The 2009 Floods were a 40-year event…

• In many areas, there was no living memory of so much water.

• This was an abnormal event!

People were unprepared for the disaster…

The 2009 Disaster • In February and March 2009, torrential rains increased

water levels in the Zambezi, Okavango, Cunene and Chobe Rivers.

• This led to a 40-year flood in the Caprivi, Kavango and Cuvelai basins, affecting some 750,000 people (37.5% of the population of Namibia)

• Whole villages were cut off and had to be relocated into camps. Some 50,000 people were displaced

• Livestock were stranded and died of hunger

• 102 people died

In April 2009, the Government requested a Post Disaster Needs Assessment

• The PDNA was carried out by the Government of Namibia, UN, World Bank, EC, Luxembourg, and USAID

• About 70 experts participated in the assessment

• All six affected regions and 11 economic sectors were assessed

The Total Damages and Losses of the 2009 Disaster Amounted to US$214 million

  Million N$ Million US$

Damages 1,111,3 136.4

Losses 637.1 78.2

Economic losses were also incurred mostly by private households

Private sector sustained more destruction of assets

Summary of Damages and Losses

Summary of Damages and Losses

Most damages occurred in socio-productive sectors such as housing and tradeMost damages occurred in socio-productive sectors such as housing and trade

Losses were concentrated in agriculture, manufacture and tradeLosses were concentrated in agriculture, manufacture and trade

The Disaster Further Compounded the Impact of the Financial Crisis

0.60.6%%

Economic growth for 2009 which was predicted at a modest 1.1%, will now be 0.5% due to the disaster, a 0.6% decline

More Important Still was the Impact at the Personal Level

• In Caprivi and Ohangwena, people lost over 12 percent of their annual income

• In Kavango, a region where 93% of the people are poor or severely poor, they lost 6% of their annual income.

The Floods Compounded the Impacts of Previous Shocks

Households in North and Northeast Namibia were already fragile due to previous floods and droughts in the mid-2000s, foot-and-mouth disease and a drop in construction contracts

Strategy for Recovery and Reconstruction

Phase 1. Back to Pre-Disaster Reconstruction (US$136 million).

• Early recovery

• Reconstruction of damaged assets to their pre-disaster conditions

Phase 2. Build Back Smarter (US$463 million).

• Spatial risk management planning to relocate in safer grounds

• Climate resilient infrastructure

• More efficient water use for agriculture and flood protection

• Long-term Disaster Risk Management

Clearly,Namiba does not want to repeat the mistakes of the past.

The Build Back Smarter Strategy

Sector Activity Needs (U$ Million)

Disaster Risk Management

Strengthened Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Committees, Risk Assessment, Community Awareness, Preparedness and Response

5.2

Education Reconstruction of Schools and Access Roads with Disaster-Resilient Standards

13.2

Agriculture Small-scale reservoirs for irrigation and flood protection in 10,000 ha and diversification of agriculture production

49.4

Transport Climate proofing of critical roads and access to critical services and markets

235.1

Water and Sanitation

Reconstruction of essential systems using disaster resilient standards

94.3

Housing Reconstruction with disaster resilient standards 66.6

Total 463.7

From Business As Usual to Building Back Smarter

Disaster Risk Management

Meeting the Hyogo FrameworkMeeting the Hyogo FrameworkMain PrioritiesMain Priorities Estimated Needs (US$ Estimated Needs (US$

Million)Million)

DRM LegislationStrengthening DRM Committees Mainstreaming DRM into Economic Planning

US$0.8

Climate Variability and Risk Hazard Modeling

Participatory Flood MappingStronger Early Warning System

US$2.1

Living with Floods Campaign US$0.4

Disaster Contingency PlansA Stronger Local Relief and Emergency System

US$1.95

TOTAL ESTIMATED NEEDS US$5.2 Million

Our nation is only 19 years old. DRM institutions are still incipient and need considerable strengthening

From Business As Usual to Building Back Smarter

Water and Sanitation

Recovery and Back to Recovery and Back to Pre-Disaster Pre-Disaster

ReconstructionReconstruction

Building Back SmarterBuilding Back Smarter

Emergency provision of drinking waterRehabilitation of water and wastewater systems: US$6.1 million

Reconstruction of systems using disaster-resilient standards:US$94.3 million

Emergency solution of waste water problems

From Business As Usual to Building Back Smarter

Agriculture

RecoveryRecovery Building Back Building Back SmarterSmarter

Food imports (Grains and meat): US$5.4 million

Develop small-scale reservoirs for irrigation and downstream flood protection in 10000 has:US$49.4 million

Provision of seeds and inputs for next crop: US$4.1 million

Crop diversification through private sector participation

Assistance for land preparation: US$3.5 million

Estimated Funding Commitments to the Namibian Floods

(to Date) Donors Engagements

(Millions of US$)

Government of Namibia 44.8

US Government 0.7

Central Emergency Response Fund (UN) 1.2

Germany 0.065

China 0.1

France 0.052

Italy 0.4

Finland 0.28

Spain 0.70*

Austria 0.12

Estonia 0.31

Botswana 0.06

GFDRR 0.2

Total Engagements 49.3

Total Needs Phase 1 (Back to Pre-Disaster Conditions) 136

Total Needs Phase 2 (Building Back Smarter) 463

* Expected engagements

Remaining Challenges and Opportunities

We Need Stronger Regional Cooperation

• Prior to the 2009 disaster, Namibia received insufficient early warning information from the Zambezi River Basin Authority and from the Okavango River Basin Commission

• Collaboration with these two Regional Commissions should be strengthened in the future

Namibia is Hindered by its Status as a Middle Income Country

Region Poor and Severely Poor (%)

Namibia 41.4

Caprivi 41.1

Kavango 93.2

Ohangwena 64.0

Omusati 43.8

Oshana 27.4

Oshikoto 57.4

This seems to hinders its capacity to access concessionary funds for disaster relief

Yet the floods affected the poorest and most vulnerable regions of Namibia

Reconstruction will Require Participatory Hazard Zoning

• We will need to choose a flood safety level that is acceptable to our people

• Based on that, we will have to conduct participatory zoning to determine which structures should remain in place (and be climate-proofed) and which should be relocated to safer areas.

This is an important part of the DRM support that we are seeking from GFDRR donors for the reconstruction of Namibia

And… Flooding has Started Again…

• On Friday, Kwando River in Southeastern Caprivi reached 4.04 m, the highest levels on record (highest even than 1969)

• The rainfall in June has been the highest on record and unprecedented for the dry season

• Is this climate change?

Acknowledgments

We want to thank GFDRR, the UN, the World Bank, the EC, Luxembourg, and USAID for their financial and technical support to the Namibian

flood assessment

The full assessment results are expected by July 2009 at www.GFDRR.org