Fresno Power Analysis – Fresno County Democratic Party

7/24/2019 Fresno Power Analysis Fresno County Democratic Party

1/49


2/49

Fresno Power Analysis

Who has power in Fresno?

How is that power used?

How could that power be affected?


3/49

Power Structure

Analysis of Fresno


4/49

4

Taken into

account

Can get

attention

3

6

Power to have

major influence ondecision making

8Active participant

in decision

making

1

0

Decisive decision-

making power

or influence

2Not on

radar

Die hardDie hard Inclined toward Active supportActive support Inclined toward

Elected Officials

Tom McClintock

U.S. Congress (R)

Fresno Mayor

Devin Nunes

U.S. Congress (R)

Board of

Supervisors

David Valadao

U.S. Congress (R)

Clovis City Council

Anthony Cannella

Senate (R)

Tom Berryhill

Senate (R)

Jim Patterson

Assembly (R)

Andy Vidak

Senate (R)

Jim Costa

U.S. Congress (D)

Henry T. Perea

Assembly (D)

Small Town

City Councils

Fresno City Council


5/49

4

Taken into

account

Can get

attention

3

6

Power to have


8Active participant

in decision

making

1

0

Decisive decision-

making power

or influence

2Not on

radar


Land Use

Criminal Justice/

Incarceration

Health Access

Air Quality

Hunger/Nutrition

Jobs

Water

Transportation

Immigrant Rights

Workers Rights

Environment

Homelessness

Police

Accountability

Privatization

Issues

Social & Economic Justice Agenda Political & Economic Elite Agenda

Living Wage

Womens

Reproductive

Rights


6/49

Players

4

Taken into

account

Can get

attention

3

6

Power to have


8Active participant

in decision

making

1

0

Decisive decision-

making power

or influence

2Not on

radar


Education

Labor

Democratic

Party

Left Third

Parties

Community

Alliance

Unitarians

WILPF

CLC

NAACP

Small Town

Mayors

Fresno City

Council

Building

Trades

California

Endowment

Law

Enforcement

Metro

Ministry

Sierra

Club

SEIU

LGBTStudent

Groups

African-American

Community AsianCommunity

LatinoCommunity

Undocumented

Workers

Republican

Party

Fresno

Bee

Developers

Agribusiness

Chamber of

Commerce

Right-Wing

Radio

Mayor Ashley

Swearingen

Tea PartyHispanic

Chambers

Black

Chamber

LWV

California

Advocate

Board of

Supervisors

Lincoln ClubBusiness

Leadership

Council

Peace

Groups

Right Third

Parties

Planned

Parenthood

Fresno

Partnership

Faith in

Community


7/49

COMPETING

AGENDAS


8/49

Power Elite Agenda

Grow at all costs Privatize government services

Hold down cost of doing business in Fresno Roll back/prevent further regulation

(labor & environmental, specifically air, land & water) Keep wages down

Safe communities/reducing crime

Regional transportation Attract new industries/employers in part by marketing

the region as regulation-less

Increase prestige of Fresno


9/49

Power Elite Agenda: Splits

Smart-ishGrowth,Air Is Issue, Schools

Mayor Ashley Swearengin

Urban Members

of Elected Bodies City Planning &

Development Agencies

Some Developers

Unfettered Growth,Pollute Like Mad

Agribusiness

Building Industry Association

Fresno Business Council Most Developers

Cities of Clovis & Sanger

County of Madera

Chamber of Commerce Non-Urban Members

of Elected Bodies

Christian Right


10/49

The Progressive Agenda

Living Wage for All Workers Water Quality & Accessibility

Police Accountability

Environmental Justice (e.g., air quality, stopping fracking)

Immigrant Rights & Immigration Reform Ending Homelessness

Civil Liberties

Land Use & Transportation

Public Education for All

Healthcare access & quality

Stopping Privatization Efforts


11/49

DECISION MAKERS


12/49

4

Taken into

account

Can get

attention

3

6

Power to have


8Active participant

in decision

making

1

0Decisive decision-

making power

or influence

2Not on

radar


Key Powers: Land use (zoning, permits, subsidies) Economic development Services: Street Maintenance,Police & Fire, Housing, Public Utilities

Budget: $1.4 billion

Key Players:Mayor 7-member City Council Planning Commission

Boards of

Education

City of Fresno

Fresno County

Regional Bodies

Other Cities

Key Powers: Oversee state-mandated services Services: Health/Welfare, Registrar/Clerk, Assessor, DA, Sheriff Budget: $2.7 billion

Key Players:

5-member Board of Supervisors

15 incorporated cities

Key Powers: Manage state-allocated budgets Oversee curriculum & education policiesfor students countywide

Key Players:

33 school districts(including 36 charter schools)

Office of Education Fresno & Clovis Unified (largest districts)

Key Powers: Regional coordination betweengovernmental entities

Regional water/air policies & projects

Key Players: Local Agency Formation Commission (LAFCO) Fresno Council of Governments (COG) San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District Westlands & Friant water districts Fresno Irrigation District


13/49

4

Taken into

account

Can get

attention

3

6

Power to have


8Active participant

in decision

making

1

0Decisive decision-

making power

or influence

2Not on

radar


Henry

Perea

Debbie

Poochigian

Brian Pacheco (D)

Fourth-generation dairy farmer Served on Kerman Unified School District Board Director of Community Regional Medical Center Past president of Fresno County Farm Bureau

Buddy Mendes (R)

Farm owner on both east and west sides of county Served on Riverdale Unified School District Board of Trustees Served on the Southwest Transportation Agency Board Rumored to have had Koch brothers support

Debbie Poochigian (R)

Married to former State Senator Chuck Poochigian Family has farmed in Fresno County for four generations Member of Fresno County Farm Bureau Part of solid conservative bloc

Board of Supervisors

Andreas Borgeas (R)

Former Fresno City Council member Served on Mayors Economic Stimulus Committee Focused on business law when in private practice Part of conservative bloc

Henry Perea (D) Former Fresno City Council member Developed Go Green Fresno Led program for county investment in community banks Prospective candidate for mayor of Fresno in 2016

Andreas

BorgeasBrian

Pacheco Buddy

Mendes


14/49


15/49

Last Election per Supervisor


16/49

4

Taken into

account

Can get

attention

3

6

Power to have


8Active participant

in decision

making

1

0Decisive decision-

making power

or influence

2Not on

radar


Fresno City Council

MayorSwearingen

Lee

Brand

Sal

QuinteroClint

Olivier

Ashley Swearengin (R)

Previously Community & Economic Development at CSUF Has taken aggressive actions against the homeless in the city

Secretive while maintaining a power bloc on City Council Has few qualms about putting citys finances at legal risk Terms out in 2016

Steve Brandau (R)

Coordinator of the Central Valley Tea Party Views government as the problem, not the solution Has a radical right-wing agenda

Lee Brand (R) Pro business and considers himself a numbers guy A reliable vote for the Mayors positions Candidate for Mayor in 2016

Paul Caprioglio (D)

Previously served interim term on City Council Served on City of Fresno Planning Commission

A reliable vote for the Mayors positions

Sal Quintero (D) Previously served two terms on City Council Helped open Senior Citizens Resource Center Considered reliable labor supporter

Esmeralda Soria (D)

Law professor Former adviser to Assembly Member Henry T. Perea Past Sustainable Rural Communities project director

Clint Olivier (R)

Formerly a TV news reporter Initially called himself a pure libertarian Now a reliable vote for the Mayors positions

Oliver Baines (D)

Former head of Problem-Oriented-Policing Unit Serves on Fulton/Lowell Plan Advisory Committee Serves on SJV Air Pollution Control District

Steve

Brandau

Paul

CaprioglioEsmeralda

Soria

Oliver

Baines


17/49

District 1: Esmeralda SoriaElected: Nov. 4, 2014

Registration: 32,376Total Votes:11,143 (34.4%)Soria Votes: 5,430 (52.4%)Catalano Votes: 4,896 (47.3%)Next Election: 2018

District 2: Steve BrandauElected: Nov. 6, 2012Registration: 39,189Total Votes: 25,721 (65.6%)

Brandau Votes: 12,432 (54.2%)DiCicco Votes: 10,433 (45.5%)Next Election: 2016

District 4: Paul CaprioglioElected: June 5, 2012

Registration: 27,520Total Votes: 6,976 (25.3%)Caprioglio Votes: 3,414 (51.4%)Good Votes: 3,208 (48.3%)Next Election: 2016

District 3: Oliver BainesReelected: June 3, 2014Registration: 26,410Total Votes: 4,548 (17.2%)Baines Votes: 2,785 (66.0%)Hunt Votes: 827 (19.6%)Next Election: 2018 (TO)

District 5: Sal QuinteroReelected: June 3, 2014Registration: 27,208Total Votes: 4,517 (16.6%)Quintero Votes: 3,742 (97.9%)(unopposed)Next Election: 2018 (TO)

District 6: Lee BrandReelected: June 5, 2012Registration: 39,073Total Votes: 14,692 (37.6%)

Brand Votes: 11,074 (98.3%)Other Votes: 188 (1.7%)Next Election: 2016 (TO)

Mayor: Ashley SwearenginReelected: June 5, 2012Registration: 207,628Total Votes: 55,196 (26.6%)Swearingen Votes: 39,342 (74.8%)Hunt Votes: 4,545 (8.7%)

Next Election: 2016 (TO)

District 7: Clint OlivierReelected: June 3, 2014Registration: 24,708Total Votes: 4,009 (16.2%)Olivier Votes: 2,077 (54.3%)

Wells Votes: 1,130 (29.6%)Next Election:2018 (TO)


18/49

Last Election per Council Member


19/49

Obama won Fresno County in

2008 and2012

2012 results by precinctin the City of Fresno:

Obama (blue) vs. Romney (red)


20/49


21/49

Elected Officials by Party

63

159

295


22/49

Appointed Officials by Party

265220

72


23/49

City Council Members in Fresno County

32

41

8


24/49

School Boards in Fresno County

93

74

23


25/49

Environmental Bodies in Fresno County

108

14 9


26/49

ORGANIZED

OPPOSITION


27/49

4

Taken into

account

Can get

attention

3

6

Power to have


8

Active participant

in decision

making

1

0Decisive decision-

making power

or influence

2Not on

radar


Organized Opposition

BusinessOrganizations

Christian

RightConservative

Advocacy

Organizations

Agribusiness

Republican Party

Developers

Fresno State

Tea Party


28/49

Christian Right

Mayor Ashley

Swearengin

Police Chief

Jerry Dyer

Jim Franklin

Rev. H. Spees

The Catholic Church

Some Black Ministers


29/49

4

Taken into

account

Can get

attention

3

6

Power to have

major influence on

decision making

8

Active participantin decision

making

1

0Decisive decision-

making power

or influence

2Not on

radar


Faith Groups

Sikh

BuddhismMormon

7th Day

AdventistMennonite

Brethren

Islamic Cultural

Center

NorthwestChurch

Cornerstone

Church

TheWell

FresnoPacific

University

West Fresno

Ministerial Alliance

Catholic Church PeoplesChurch


30/49

Developers

Granville HomesDarius & Farid Assemi, & Jeff Roberts

Building Industry Association Represents commercial & residential builders/developers Large donor via Citizens for Housing Opportunities PAC

Associated General ContractorsAdvances concerns of the construction industry

Lance-Kashian & Co.Ed Kashian

The Penstar GroupTom Richards

Harris ConstructionRichard Spencer

Developers put big money in electoral races

Operation Rezone is an extreme example of this influence


31/49

Business Organizations

Chamber of Commerce Represents and advocates on behalf of business

Economic Development Corp. Recruits businesses, jobs and capital to Fresno Helped Fresno become a Federal Empowerment Zone

Fresno Business Council Provides voice for the elite of the business elite Launched Fresno Citizens for Good Government

Other Chambers Hispanic Chambers Black Metro Chamber Fresno County Womens Chamber of Commerce

Among the most vocal supporters of Measure G


32/49

Agribusiness

Westlands Water DistrictAdvocates for landowners in Fresno & Kings counties

Farm Bureau Promotes family farm image & downplays agribusiness Has strong ties to most Supervisors

Nisei Farmers League Serves as mutual protection society for farmers Holds anti-regulation, anti-progressive anything stance Formed in response to a strengthening UFW

California Latino Water Coalition Promotes Delta solutions to benefit West-side farmers Fronted by actor/comedian Paul Rodriguez


33/49

Republican Party

Elected Officials Mayor Ashley Swearengin Reps. Devin Nunes, Tom McClintock & David Valadao State legislators Tom Berryhill, Anthony Canella, Andy Vidak &

Jim Patterson Control Board of Supervisors Nominally control Fresno City Council Dominant control of all environmental bodies

Lincoln Club Supports pro economic growth candidates Stresses fiscal conservatism

Central Valley Tea Party Influence reflected in mainstream Republican positions Fresno City Council Member Steve Brandau


34/49

Organized Opposition

Net Effect Large coordinated political contributions

Buy influence of ruling elite conservatives whorepresent their interests

Get appointed & elected to boards/commissions

Strong social ties to politicians & other power players

With money & access to media, they are able to

project a positive public image & control the message


35/49

Implications

for Progressives

Target battles & races that can be affected

Exploit competing interests where possible

Proactive agenda needed to avoid playing defense(e.g., homeless, Walmart expansions, privatization)


36/49

POTENTIAL ALLIES


37/49

4

Taken into

account

Can get

attention

3

6

Power to have


8


making

1

0Decisive decision-

making power

or influence

2Not on

radar


Potential Allies

Latino Community

Organizations

Progressive

Advocacy Groups

Progressive

Churches

Democratic Party

African-American

Organizations

Green Party/

Peace & Freedom Party

Organized Labor

Community

Capacity Builders

Asian Community

Organizations


38/49

4

Taken into

account

Can get

attention

3

6

Power to have


8


making

1

0Decisive decision-

making power

or influence

2Not on

radar


Advocacy Groups/

Capacity Builders

ACLU

Building Healthy Communities

Center for New Americans

Central Valley Progressive PAC

Communities for a New California

Community Alliance

El Concilio de Fresno

Fresno Metro Ministry

Fresno Partnership

League of Women Voters

May 1st Committee

Mexican American Political Association (MAPA)

NAACP

Peace Fresno

PICO/Faith in Community

Planned Parenthood

SEFCEDA

Sierra Club


39/49

4

Taken into

account

Can get

attention

3

6

Power to have


8


making

1

0Decisive decision-

making power

or influence

2Not on

radar


Organized Labor

Fresno Teachers

Association

SEIU 521

SEIU-UHW

Firefighters

IBEW

Deputy Sheriffs

Association

SEIU 1000

FPOACentral Labor

Council

Carpenters

COOL

CWA

UFCW

Building Trades

Council

Plumbers &

Pipefitters

CSEA

FCEAAFT

LIUNA

CNA

AFT: American Federation of Teachers; CNA: California Nurses Association; COOL: Coalition of Organized Labor; CSEA: California

School Employees Association; CWA: Communications Workers of America; FCEA: Fresno City Employees Association; FPOA:

Fresno Police Officers Association; IBEW: International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers; LIUNA: Laborers International Union of

North America; SEIU: Service Employees International Union; UFCW: United Food and Commercial Workers; UHW: United

Healthcare Workers

1


40/49

4

Taken into

account

Can get

attention

3

6

Power to have

major influence on

decision making

8


making

1

0Decisive decision-

making power

or influence

2Not on

radar


Faith Groups

College Community

Congregational

Newman Center

First

CongregationalChurch

Metro MinistryFresno

Interdenominational

Refugee Ministries

JewishUnitarianChurch

Sikh

Buddhism

Quakers

WesleyUnited

Methodist

InterfaithSocialJustice

Collaborative

Mennonite

InterfaithAlliance

FaithinCommunity


41/49

Implications

Need more & stronger base-building groups Advocacy & institution-based groups the keys tolong-term base building

Relationships mainly tactical (e.g., Measure G,Yes on 30/No on 32); need to be more strategic

Mutual interests more effective than individualinterests

Strength exists in unity


42/49

CHALLENGES


43/49

2016

ElectoralLandscape


44/49

Races to Target

Congressional District 21 Seat held by Rep. David Valadao Conservative Kings County at the heart of the district

Assembly District 31

Henry T. Perea terming out Republicans emboldened following close 2014 Costa race

Fresno County Board of Supervisors Maintain District 3 seat

Find candidates for Districts 2 & 5 Fresno Mayor

Ashley Swearengin is terming out Solidify behind one progressive candidate


45/49

Races to Target

Fresno Unified School District Carol Mills, Luis Chavez & Janet Ryan seats up for reelection Ryan likely to retire

State Center Community College District

Democratic incumbents Eric Payne, John Leal & PatrickPatterson up for reelection Richard Caglia rumored to be stepping down


46/49

CONCLUSION

D hi


47/49

Fresno is more progressive than many people realize.

There is a massive north/south divide in our community.

Demographics shifts will increasingly benefitprogressive candidates.

These demographic changes now include Fresno has a majority of non-White residents

Younger voters replacing older voters at a fast pace (CD21)

Voter education campaigns a key to our success

The more we can empower voters in southeast andsouthwest Fresno, the sooner we will win citywide races

Demographics

Ed ti th C it


48/49

Educating the Community

El t l St t


49/49

Electoral Strategy

Need ongoing strategies to motivate voters Focus on candidate recruitment & development

Target specific races

Facilitate grassroots activism

Train competent local campaign talent

Prepare a united & coordinated electoral strategy

Leverage successes

Organize precincts, neighborhoods and communitygroups on a continuous basis

Fresno Power Analysis – Fresno County Democratic Party

Documents

Transcript of Fresno Power Analysis – Fresno County Democratic Party