Fresno County Employees Retirement Association · 5/4/2016 · Fresno County Employees Retirement...
21
Fresno County Employees Retirement Association www.loomissayles.com One Financial Center Boston, Massachusetts 02111 617 482-2450 BOSTON DETROIT SAN FRANCISCO LONDON SINGAPORE LS Loomis | Sayles is a trademark of Loomis, Sayles & Company, L.P. registered in the US Patent and Trademark Office. May 4, 2016 Stephanie Lord, CFA, CIC Vice President, Client Portfolio Manager
Transcript of Fresno County Employees Retirement Association · 5/4/2016 · Fresno County Employees Retirement...
Fresno County EmployeesRetirement Association
www.loomissayles.com One Financial Center Boston, Massachusetts 02111 617 482-2450
BOSTON DETROIT SAN FRANCISCO LONDON SINGAPORE
LS Loomis | Sayles is a trademark of Loomis, Sayles & Company, L.P. registered in the USPatent and Trademark Office.
May 4, 2016
Stephanie Lord, CFA, CIC
Vice President, Client Portfolio Manager
loomis sayles at a glance
A Rich Investment Tradition What Defines Us
Serving clients with integrity since 1926Core attributes: integrity, transparency and a team-oriented culture
$229.1 billion assets under management*Rigorous fundamental analysis complemented by robustmacro and market insight
Expertise across all major asset classesPortfolio managers, strategists, research analysts andtraders collaborating to identify our best ideas
76% of investment professionals dedicated to research
Firm
Ov
erv
iew
2
76% of investment professionals dedicated to research& trading; 155 CFA® charterholders**
Small, accountable product teams implementing portfoliodecisions
Global perspective: investors in Boston, San Francisco,Detroit, London and Singapore
Disciplined risk awareness integrated into a highconviction investment process
US mutual funds ($82.4 b)
As of 12/31/2015. * Includes the assets of both Loomis, Sayles & Co., LP, and Loomis Sayles Trust Company, LLC. ($16.1 billion for the Loomis Sayles Trust Company). Loomis Sayles Trust Companyis a wholly owned subsidiary of Loomis, Sayles & Company, L.P. ** 285 investment professionals. 83% of CFA charterholders are investment professionals and 17% are non-investment professionals.
Serving clients in across44countries
6continents
US separate accounts ($87.4 b)
Non-US separate accounts ($42.5 b)
Non-US mutual funds ($16.8 b)
Firm
Ov
erv
iew
AUM by Global Accounts
MALR014439
$229.1US billion
deep insight fuels our pursuit of alpha
CREDIT RESEARCH
• Director32 years experience
• 23 Senior Credit Analysts20 years average experience
• 14 Credit Analysts9 years average experience
• 8 Research Associates
• 8 Research Assistants
CONVERTIBLES &SPECIAL SITUATIONS
• Director30 years experience
• 3 Senior Research Analysts13 years average experience
• 2 Research Associates
Firm
Ov
erv
iew
MACRO STRATEGIES
• Director35 years experience
• Associate Director/Senior Global Macro Strategist20 years experience
• Senior Equity Strategist30 years experience
• 2 Economists26 years average experience
QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH& RISK ANALYSIS
• Deputy CIO, Director27 years experience
• 2 Associate Directors19 years average experience
• Quantitative Strategist20 years experience
• 8 Quantitative Analysts8 years average experience
3
$92 million committed to proprietary research in 2016
As of 12/31/2015; Years experience indicates industry experience.
SOVEREIGN RESEARCH
• 6 Senior Sovereign Analysts19 years average experience
• 2 Analysts8 years average experience
• 8 Research Assistants
Firm
Ov
erv
iew
26 years average experience
• 2 Analysts6 years average experience
• Research Associate
• Research Assistant
8 years average experience
• 2 Quantitative Associates
SECURITIZED RESEARCH
• Director18 years experience
• 2 Securitized Asset Strategists14 years average experience
• 2 Senior Securitized Asset Analysts23 years average experience
• 2 Securitized Asset Analysts9 years average experience
• 2 Research Associates
EQUITY RESEARCH
• 23 Senior Analysts18 years average experience
• 8 Analysts7 years average experience
• Research Associate
MALR014439
fixed income assets under management$194 BILLION AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2015
Non-US HighYield Corporates
Bank Loans4%
Other3%
Convertible/Preferreds
2%Short TermInvestments
2%
Municipals1%
By sectorAssets
($ millions)
US Investment Grade Corporates 52,016
Non-US Investment Grade Corporates 35, 001
US High Yield Corporates 25,884
Firm
Ov
erv
iew
4
As of 12/31/2015. Due to rounding, pie chart total may not equal 100%.Includes the assets of both Loomis, Sayles & Co., LP, and Loomis Sayles Trust Company LLC.*Emerging Market Debt assets totaling $16.5 billion are included in the total fixed income assets under management. These assets are spread throughout the fixed income sectors.
US InvestmentGrade
Corporates27%
Non-USInvestment
GradeCorporates
18%US High YieldCorporates
13%
Securitized11%
US Governments9%
Non-USGovernments
5%
Yield Corporates5%
US High Yield Corporates 25,884
Securitized 21,061
US Governments 17,419
Non-US Governments 10,358
Non-US High Yield Corporates 8,989
Bank Loans 7,013
Other 5,854
Convertible/Preferreds 4,973
Short Term Investments 3,916
Municipals 1,054
Emerging Market Debt* 16,545
Firm
Ov
erv
iew
MALR014439
HIGHLY EXPERIENCED, SEASONED TEAM
KEY SUPPORTInvestment Analysts Portfolio Specialists
investment process
PRODUCT TEAM MATTHEW EAGAN
Portfolio Manager
DAN FUSS
Portfolio Manager
ELAINE STOKES
Portfolio Manager
Yrs of industry experience: 25 57 28
Yrs with firm: 18 39 27
BRIAN HESS
Global
Strategist
BRIAN KENNEDY
Investment Grade,Bank Loan, Securitized
Strategist
DIANA MONTEITH
Convertibles andSpecial Situations
Strategist
TODD VANDAM
High YieldStrategist
KEN JOHNSON
ProductManager
FRED SWEENEY
ProductManager
Yrs of industry experience: 12 25 30 21 24 28
Yrs with firm: 1 21 13 21 15 20
Hig
hY
ield
Full
Dis
cre
tio
n
5
EmergingMarkets
High Yield /Bank Loans
Convertibles SecuritizedAssets
Inv Grade /Global Credit
US
Government
FIRMWIDE RESOURCES
US YieldCurve
Global AssetAllocation
Developed
Non-US Markets
SECTOR TEAMS
KEY SUPPORTInvestment Analysts Portfolio Specialists
S. Darci B. Hazelton C. Romanelli M. Fitzgerald A. Steede
K. Doyle V. Patel C. Turner R. Gartaganis M. Tierney
As of 12/31/2015.
Macro StrategiesDirectorAssoc. Director/Senior Global Macro StrategistSenior Equity Strategist2 Economists2 AnalystsResearch AssociateResearch Assistant
Securitized ResearchDirector2 Strategists2 Senior Analysts2 Analysts2 Associates
Credit ResearchDirector23 Senior Analysts14 Analysts8 Research Associates8 Research Assistants
Convertibles & SpecialSituationsDirector3 Senior Analysts2 Research Associates
Equity Research23 Senior Analysts8 AnalystsResearch Associate
Quant. Research &Risk AnalysisDeputy CIO, Director2 Associate DirectorsQuantitative Strategist2 Analysts – Equity6 Analysts - Fixed2 Associates
Sovereign Research6 Senior Analysts2 Analysts
Fixed Income Trading29 Traders/TAsDirector, Portfolio Implementation15 Portfolio SpecialistsDirector, Operational Trading Risk Mgt.
Hig
hY
ield
Full
Dis
cre
tio
n
MALR013801
guideline summary
Benchmark
• Barclays High Yield
Guidelines & Limitations
• Rating: There is no minimum credit quality requirement
• Duration: The effective duration shall not exceed the duration of the Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index by morethan 5 years.
Fre
sno
Co
un
tyEm
plo
ye
es
Re
tire
me
nt
Ass
oc
iati
on
6
• Currency: The account may not purchase more than 5% MV in non-USD denominated securities.
• Industry: Account may not hold more than 25% MV in any industry, excluding U.S. Government, its agencies,instrumentalities or GSEs, at the time of purchase.
• Issue: Account may not hold more than 5% MV in any one issue excluding U.S. Government and agencies, and the LSFull Discretion Institutional Securitized Asset Fund.
Fre
sno
Co
un
tyEm
plo
ye
es
Re
tire
me
nt
Ass
oc
iati
on
2
4
6
Portfolio (Gross) Benchmark
CALENDAR YEAR RETURNS (%) AS OF 3/31/2016
investment results
Fre
sno
Co
un
tyEm
plo
ye
es
Re
tire
me
nt
Ass
oc
iati
on
7
-6
-4
-2
0
The current benchmark is Barclays High Yield. Returns over one year are annualized. Information is reported on a trade date basis. Data Source: Barclays Capital
Mar 16 1Q16 2015 9/30/14 - 3/31/16 Annualized
Portfolio (Gross) 4.16 2.55 -4.80 -1.54
Benchmark 4.44 3.35 -4.47 -1.51
Excess Return -0.28 -0.80 -0.33 -0.03
Fre
sno
Co
un
tyEm
plo
ye
es
Re
tire
me
nt
Ass
oc
iati
on
-0.04
-0.35
0.12
-0.08US Treasuries
Gov Related
Securitized Credit
US Invest Grade
Account Return 2.55
Benchmark Return 3.35
Excess Return -0.80
performance attribution
Total Returns
Excess Return Attribution
Excess Return Attribution by Sector
12/31/2015 THROUGH 3/31/2016 (%)
Fre
sno
Co
un
tyEm
plo
ye
es
Re
tire
me
nt
Ass
oc
iati
on
8
The Attribution benchmark is Barclays High Yield. Figures on bar charts may not add up to total excess return as they exclude impact of trading and pricing differences.Excess Return by sector includes yield curve impact. Data Source: Barclays Capital
-0.34
0.02
-0.26
0.08
0.18
-0.10
-0.04
-0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.5
US Invest Grade
US High Yield
Emerging Markets
Non-US Dollar
Convertibles
Other
Cash & Equivalents
-0.63
-0.09
-0.04
-0.03
-0.02
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
Yield Curve
Allocation
Selection
Total Parallel Non-Parallel
Excess Return Attribution
Fre
sno
Co
un
tyEm
plo
ye
es
Re
tire
me
nt
Ass
oc
iati
on
Maturity Distribution
Account
Final
Weight
Benchmark
Final
Weight
Account
Average
Weight
Benchmark
Average
Weight
Portfolio
Return
Benchmark
Return
Total
Effect
Under 1 year 4.97 0.00 8.60 0.00 1.08 3.35 -0.15
1 - 3 years 8.91 13.45 9.04 13.10 4.10 2.40 0.17
3 - 5 years 27.99 25.01 25.92 24.75 0.53 2.20 -0.42
5 - 7 years 24.10 31.24 22.65 31.11 3.71 3.62 -0.05
7 - 10 years 26.73 24.50 25.70 25.62 2.86 3.60 -0.17
10+ years 7.31 5.83 8.08 5.43 6.67 8.43 -0.17
Sector Distribution
Account
Final
Weight
Benchmark
Final
Weight
Account
Average
Weight
Benchmark
Average
Weight
Portfolio
Return
Benchmark
Return
Total
Effect
US Treasuries* 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.19 3.35 -0.08
Gov Related 1.57 0.00 1.52 0.00 11.54 3.35 0.12
Securitized Credit 9.74 0.00 9.85 0.00 -0.66 0.00 -0.35
US Invest Grade 5.02 0.00 7.24 0.00 3.15 0.00 -0.04
US High Yield 69.01 99.85 64.51 99.68 3.28 3.38 -0.10
HY - Financial 12.84 10.68 12.54 11.32 1.27 0.81 0.02
12/31/2015 THROUGH 3/31/2016 (%)
attribution analysis
Fre
sno
Co
un
tyEm
plo
ye
es
Re
tire
me
nt
Ass
oc
iati
on
9
10+ years 7.31 5.83 8.08 5.43 6.67 8.43 -0.17
The Attribution benchmark is Barclays High Yield. Total Effects are impacted by sector returns, allocation shifts and market timing. *Returns reflect the entire periodwhereas weights reflect only the end of period. Total Effect includes yield curve impact. Data Source: Barclays Capital
HY - Financial 12.84 10.68 12.54 11.32 1.27 0.81 0.02
HY - Industrial 54.22 86.08 49.95 85.18 3.85 3.64 -0.02
HY - Utility 1.95 3.09 2.02 3.18 0.83 4.99 -0.10
Emerging Markets 1.97 0.14 0.70 0.32 58.12 3.46 0.18
Non-US Dollar 3.44 0.00 4.52 0.00 5.98 3.35 0.08
Convertibles 5.23 0.00 5.61 0.00 -0.98 3.35 -0.26
Other 0.01 0.00 0.08 0.00 7.53 3.35 0.02
Cash & Equivalents 4.02 0.00 5.96 0.00 0.07 3.35 -0.34
Fre
sno
Co
un
tyEm
plo
ye
es
Re
tire
me
nt
Ass
oc
iati
on
-0.41
0.77
-0.25
-0.13US Treasuries
Gov Related
Securitized Credit
US Invest Grade
Account Return -4.80
Benchmark Return -4.47
Excess Return -0.33
performance attribution
Total Returns
Excess Return Attribution
Excess Return Attribution by Sector
12/31/2014 THROUGH 12/31/2015 (%)
Fre
sno
Co
un
tyEm
plo
ye
es
Re
tire
me
nt
Ass
oc
iati
on
10
The Attribution benchmark is Barclays High Yield. Figures on bar charts may not add up to total excess return as they exclude impact of trading and pricing differences.Excess Return by sector includes yield curve impact. Data Source: Barclays Capital
0.39
0.03
0.03
-0.74
-0.38
-0.01
0.46
-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0
US High Yield
Emerging Markets
Non-US Dollar
Convertibles
Preferreds
Other
Cash & Equivalents
-0.45
0.36
-0.15
-0.03
-0.12
-0.7 -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.7
Yield Curve
Allocation
Selection
Total Parallel Non-Parallel
Excess Return Attribution
Fre
sno
Co
un
tyEm
plo
ye
es
Re
tire
me
nt
Ass
oc
iati
on
Maturity Distribution
Account
Final
Weight
Benchmark
Final
Weight
Account
Average
Weight
Benchmark
Average
Weight
Portfolio
Return
Benchmark
Return
Total
Effect
Under 1 year 11.71 0.00 14.34 0.00 0.27 -4.47 1.01
1 - 3 years 9.68 12.99 10.81 11.05 -5.93 -1.32 -0.50
3 - 5 years 25.61 24.74 22.27 23.12 -2.92 -6.84 0.87
5 - 7 years 19.87 30.93 18.41 32.97 -4.85 -5.37 -0.36
7 - 10 years 25.47 25.79 26.93 27.39 -4.38 -2.82 -0.59
10+ years 7.67 5.54 7.21 5.49 -11.29 -2.20 -0.77
Sector Distribution
Account
Final
Weight
Benchmark
Final
Weight
Account
Average
Weight
Benchmark
Average
Weight
Portfolio
Return
Benchmark
Return
Total
Effect
US Treasuries* 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.41 -4.47 -0.13
Gov Related 1.53 0.00 1.89 0.00 -16.52 -4.47 -0.25
Securitized Credit 9.95 0.00 8.99 0.00 3.97 0.00 0.77
US Invest Grade 8.34 0.00 7.89 0.00 -8.95 0.00 -0.41
US High Yield 63.67 99.59 61.33 99.61 -3.69 -4.42 0.46
HY - Financial 11.72 11.41 11.02 10.82 2.20 2.42 0.00
12/31/2014 THROUGH 12/31/2015 (%)
attribution analysis
Fre
sno
Co
un
tyEm
plo
ye
es
Re
tire
me
nt
Ass
oc
iati
on
11
10+ years 7.67 5.54 7.21 5.49 -11.29 -2.20 -0.77
The Attribution benchmark is Barclays High Yield. Total Effects are impacted by sector returns, allocation shifts and market timing. *Returns reflect the entire periodwhereas weights reflect only the end of period. Total Effect includes yield curve impact. Data Source: Barclays Capital
HY - Financial 11.72 11.41 11.02 10.82 2.20 2.42 0.00
HY - Industrial 49.91 84.99 48.18 85.54 -5.27 -5.31 0.32
HY - Utility 2.04 3.19 2.13 3.25 1.26 -5.08 0.14
Emerging Markets 0.07 0.41 0.38 0.38 -13.63 -0.92 -0.01
Non-US Dollar 4.95 0.00 4.59 0.00 -11.11 -4.47 -0.38
Convertibles 6.13 0.00 9.53 0.00 -12.52 -4.47 -0.74
Preferreds 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.00 7.12 -4.47 0.03
Other 0.24 0.00 0.08 0.00 9.80 -4.47 0.03
Cash & Equivalents 5.11 0.00 5.01 0.00 0.06 -4.47 0.39
Fre
sno
Co
un
tyEm
plo
ye
es
Re
tire
me
nt
Ass
oc
iati
on
Portfolio
12/31/2015
Portfolio
3/31/2016
Benchmark
3/31/2016
Yield 6.93% 6.85% 8.26%
Average Maturity 5.85 years 6.03 years 5.50 years
Average Duration 4.10 years 4.34 years 4.16 years
historical characteristics summaryFr
esn
oC
ou
nty
Em
plo
ye
es
Re
tire
me
nt
Ass
oc
iati
on
12
The current benchmark is Barclays High Yield. Duration used is Effective. Equity securities are deemed to have a duration and maturity value of zero. Yield is Yield toEffective Maturity Data Source: Barclays Capital
Average Duration 4.10 years 4.34 years 4.16 years
Average Coupon Rate 5.06% 5.06% 6.60%
Average Quality Ba2 Ba2 B2
Current Yield (MKT) 5.71% 5.50% 7.46%
Fre
sno
Co
un
tyEm
plo
ye
es
Re
tire
me
nt
Ass
oc
iati
on
69.01
5.02
9.74
1.57
99.85
0.00
0.00
0.00Gov Related
Securitized Credit
US Invest Grade
US High Yield
Fresno CountyEmployees Retirement Association Barclays High Yield
SECTOR DISTRIBUTION (%) AS OF 3/31/2016
characteristics summary
Fre
sno
Co
un
tyEm
plo
ye
es
Re
tire
me
nt
Ass
oc
iati
on
13
Data Source: Barclays Capital
4.02
0.01
5.23
3.44
1.97
1.95
54.22
12.84
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.14
3.09
86.08
10.68
0.00 26.00 52.00 78.00
HY - Financial
HY - Industrial
HY - Utility
Emerging Markets
Non USD (IG & HY)
Converts (IG & HY)
Other
Cash & Equivalents
Fre
sno
Co
un
tyEm
plo
ye
es
Re
tire
me
nt
Ass
oc
iati
on
17.42
0.91
0.23
6.91
0.00
0.00
0.00Aaa
Aa
A
QUALITY DISTRIBUTION (%) AS OF 3/31/2016
characteristics summary
Fre
sno
Co
un
tyEm
plo
ye
es
Re
tire
me
nt
Ass
oc
iati
on
14
For split rated securities in the quality distribution, the highest of Moody, S&P, and Fitch is used. Unrated securities are rated by Loomis Sayles Research. The account'ssplit rating treatment is based on client guidelines. The benchmark follows the vendor's methodology. Data Source: Barclays Capital
0.35
2.84
30.55
40.80
17.42
0.14
15.58
38.05
46.24
0.00
0.00 12.00 24.00 36.00 48.00
Baa
Ba
B
Caa & Lower
Not Rated
Fresno CountyEmployees Retirement Association
Barclays HighYield
Fre
sno
Co
un
tyEm
plo
ye
es
Re
tire
me
nt
Ass
oc
iati
on
-0.84
0.23
-2.55Aaa
Aa
A
Account Final
Weight
Over/Under
Weight
Aaa 6.91 6.91
Aa 0.23 0.23
A 0.91 0.91
Baa 17.42 17.42
Ba 40.80 (5.44)
B 30.55 (7.50)
quality allocation change
12/31/2015 TO 3/31/2016 (%)
Fre
sno
Co
un
tyEm
plo
ye
es
Re
tire
me
nt
Ass
oc
iati
on
15
0.09
-0.27
10.16
-8.37
1.55
-12.00 -6.00 0.00 6.00 12.00
Baa
Ba
B
Caa & Lower
Not Rated
The current benchmark is Barclays High Yield. For split rated securities in the quality distribution, the highest of Moody, S&P, and Fitch is used. Unrated securitiesare rated by Loomis Sayles Research. The account's split rating treatment is based on client guidelines. The benchmark follows the vendor's methodology. Data Source:Barclays Capital
B 30.55 (7.50)
Caa & Lower 2.84 (12.74)
Not Rated 0.35 0.21
Fre
sno
Co
un
tyEm
plo
ye
es
Re
tire
me
nt
Ass
oc
iati
on
Fresno County
Employees
Retirement
Association
US Dollar 96.56
Mexican Peso 1.23
Col Peso-1.0%
Ind Rupee-1.2%
Mex Peso-1.2%
currency summary
AS OF 3/31/2016 (%)
Fre
sno
Co
un
tyEm
plo
ye
es
Re
tire
me
nt
Ass
oc
iati
on
16
Indian Rupee 1.19
Colombian Peso 0.97
Euro 0.04
Mex Peso-1.2%
US Dollar-96.6%
Data Source: Barclays Capital
Fre
sno
Co
un
tyEm
plo
ye
es
Re
tire
me
nt
Ass
oc
iati
on
US
GDP growth anticipated around 1.9% for 2016.
Low interest rates; low energy prices; lowinflation; solid payroll growth; fallingunemployment rate; easier bank lendingstandards; rising house prices; improvingmortgage delinquency rates and housingvacancy rates; recovery in nonresidentialconstruction; solid consumer sector; budgetagreement; and more moderate budget deficits.
Strong dollar and weakness in major tradingpartners is hurting the trade balance; inventoryoverhang weakening the manufacturing sector;slump in oil-patch regions; mediocreproductivity growth; plateau in after-tax profits;
JAPAN
Real GDP growth expected around 1.2% in 2016.
Strong corporate profits, tourism, tight
2016 global growth themes & forecastsCHINA
GDP growth will likely continue to slow to 5.8%in 2016.
Housing glut and industrial overcapacity,inability to leverage further, weak investmentspending which is almost 50% of GDP.
Healthy consumers; incremental policy movesfavoring structuring reform and financial
liberalization.
+
-
+-
+
EUROPE
Recovery continues into 2016, supported by QE,cheap oil, and weak euro. Below consensusgiven our capex view.
+
UK
Economic expansion could be vulnerable toSecond half of year downside on British Exit(Brexit).
Improving labor market and wagegrowth; solid overall activity.
EU referendum June 23 createsdownside risks for economy and GBP.
+-
17
productivity growth; plateau in after-tax profits;failure of labor force participation rate tonormalize, indicating structural impediments tolabor market recovery; widening junk bondspreads; uncertainty caused by Middle Eastupheaval; start of a cycle of Fed tightening.
LATIN AMERICA
Struggling economies with expected 1% growth in2016, compared to growth in 4%-6% range lastdecade.
Recession in Brazil, other countries facingterms of trade shock with much weakercommodity prices.
Outlook for Mexico in line with US, regardlessof oil prices. Currencies getting cheap in theregion, with relatively high interest rates.
Strong corporate profits, tourism, tightlabor market, lower energy prices, andnow rising wages, corporate reform.
Income stuck in corporate sector, poordemographics, declining monetary policyspace.
ASIA PACIFICGrowth to slow further, but on aggregate, remainwell above LATAM peers. Within Asia, the growthrange is wide, from 1-7%. High leverage build-up is arisk as the Fed tightens.
Weaker energy prices, stronger US growth,policy space (for some), relatively strongBOP resilience.
China rebalancing, higher RMB volatility,regional financial linkages, overhang of debtin a number of countries and coming off acredit boom.
AFRICA & MIDDLE EAST
GDP growth being downgraded to 2-4% range.
Weaker oil and commodity prices takinga toll on growth, severe droughtconditions, high political/security risks.
Growing intra-regional trade, continuedFDI from China and internationalcommunity; large long-term potential incertain frontier markets.
-
+-
+-
+-
+-
given our capex view.
Consumers bolstered by QE, oil, jobgrowth. Lower fiscal drag.
Capex unlikely to meaningfullymaterialize. Refugee crisis drivingpolitical challenges.
+-
Views as of 3/31/2016. This material is provided for informational use only and should not be considered investment advice. The forecasted viewsand opinions expressed reflect those of the Loomis Sayles Macro Team. All statements are made as of the date indicated and are subject to change atany time without notice.
MALR014934
global growth
4
6
8
10
2013 2014 2015 E 2016 E 2017 E
18
Bloomberg Consensus: 03/31/2016
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Italy Spain Germany Japan UK US Brazil Indonesia China
%
globalization at riskRISE OF POPULISM THREATENS GLOBALIZATION
Fallout from GFC has hollowed out political center in DM & generated political tidal wavesin some spots
40
45
50
Latest Nov-2015 Opinion Polls
European Parliament 2014
European Parliament 2009
Performance of Extreme Parties
19
Source: Polls: Eurasia. Election results: European Parliament, as of 12/16/2015. http://www.europarl.europa.eu
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
AT DE ES FI FR GR IR IT NL PT SE UK
European Parliament 2009
Aust
ria
Germ
any
Spain
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Gre
ece
Irela
nd
Italy
Neth
erl
ands
Port
ugal
Sweden
Unit
ed
Kin
gdom
Perc
ent
of
Vote
MALR014934
liquidity in corporate sectorM
illions M
illions
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
250,000
300,000
350,000Primary Dealer Corp Positions (Left)
Total Corp Bonds Oustanding (Right)
20
Data sources: Deutsche Bank, Barclays and Bloomberg, history through December 30, 2015.
Millions M
illions
MALR014115
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Thecreditliquiditygap
contacts
Chad GrossInstitutional Services720-943-8665
Matthew J. Eagan, CFAPortfolio Manager
Stephanie S. Lord, CFA, CICClient Portfolio [email protected]
RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT
Daniel J. Fuss, CFA, CICVice Chairman, Loomis, Sayles &CompanyExecutive VP, Portfolio Manager
INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT
Fre
sno
Co
un
tyEm
plo
ye
es
Re
tire
me
nt
Ass
oc
iati
on
21
This report is a service provided to customers of Loomis Sayles for informational purposes and is not a recommendation to purchase or sell securities. Unless otherwise noted,the performance shown is gross of management fees. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Loomis Sayles believes the information contained in this report isreliable but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Additional information on portfolio holdings, portfolio attribution and portfolio transactions are available to all investors uponrequest.
Paul MalagutiClient Portfolio [email protected]
Risa Y. SampsonClient Portfolio [email protected]
Elaine M. StokesPortfolio Manager
Fred Sweeney, CFAProduct Manager
Fre
sno
Co
un
tyEm
plo
ye
es
Re
tire
me
nt
Ass
oc
iati
on
