FRESHWATER AVAILABILITY FOR BIOENERGY PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES –ASSESSMENT AND ISSUES

MAY WU, HUI XU, MIAE HA

Energy Systems DivisionArgonne National Laboratory

KRISTEN JOHNSONBioenergy Technologies OfficeOffice of Energy Efficiency and Renewable EnergyU.S. Department of Energy

Sept. 17, 2018

U.S. DOE EERE BIOENERGY TECHNOLOGIES OFFICE WEBINAR

Water and energy are intertwined. Water-Energy Nexus extends to land use and food production.

Competing demand for water and land in the production of electricity, fuels, bioenergy, food, and in urban development.

A growing population demands increased supply of food, energy, and water.

According to the forecast, the world may experience increased flood and draught in various regions currently producing food, feed, and biofuel feedstock.

Attributes of Water Resources in Energy Production

Decrease in water availability could disrupt their production, and its ripple effect can be felt across various regions in multiple sectors.

Water is valued differently from one region to another; depending on water resource richness, the potential disruptive impact of water shortage on economics can be substantial.

2

Motor Gasoline Consumption and Biofuel Blending

3

United States consumed 9.3 million barrels of gasoline per day, 3.4 billion barrels in 2016.– Up to 10% of ethanol blended into motor gasoline– In 2016, biofuel production reached 15 billion gallons; consumption = 14 billion

gallons (0.33 billion barrels)

Source: Decision Innovation Solutions, http://www.decision-innovation.com/

Water Resource Use: Major Players

4Sources: USGS

Water Consumption by Sector

Irrigation Water Withdrawal

Wu et al. 2011 https://greet.es.anl.gov/publication-consumptive-water

Water Footprint Accounting

5 http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011WR011809

WATER

Land UseCrop

GrowthEnergy &

Fuel Production

Climate

Soil

Biofuel Conversion

Process

Chemical Production

http://WATER.es.anl.gov

(Water Analysis Tool for Energy Resources)

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WATER Application: Analysis of the Role of Cellulosic Feedstock

Average biofuel blue water footprint

Oil

A future scenario: 920 million dry tons of feedstock (BT2)

– 15% conventional, 30% crop residue, 11% perennial grass, 39% wood residue, and 5% SRWC (MSW not included)

Major regional feedstock – Wood resources: Southeast– Switchgrass: South, Midwest– Corn stover, corn, soybean: Midwest

Weighted average water footprint decreases as share of cellulosic in bioenergy feedstock mix increases

Rogers, et. al.. 2016, Biofpr. (2016), doi/10.1002/bbb.1728/

Wu, M. and M. Ha, 2017. https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2017/02/f34/2016_billion_ton_report_volume_2_chapter_8.pdf

Biomass Resource Sustainability Assessment

2016 Billion Ton report evaluates biomass availability in the conterminous United States to produce 1 billion ton of biomass for bioenergy. Analysis of water consumption under the

potential scenarios has been conducted. The BT16 scenarios incorporate land

management changes from irrigated land to non-irrigated land for biomass production. The feedstock portfolio changes from

mostly starch-based material to mostly cellulosic-based material. Rain-fed acreages are increased in the

latter scenario.

DOE, 2016 https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2016/12/f34/2016_billion_ton_report_12.2.16_0.pdf

Water Availability

Demand: Analysis of water footprint or water consumption provides water intensity estimate

– Water use per unit of energy, fuel, and land

– Total demand for water under a given production scenario

Supply: Analysis of water availability examines implications of the production to regional water resource

– Region-specific renewable water resource quantity

– Regional land use, soil, and climate– Local water resource management program – Planning and growth of other sectors

Can we meet the water demand for the potential scenarios?

How would the demand for freshwater affect the water availability to

other economic sectors?

What are the potential region specific issues?

Questions:

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Scope of This Work

• Rainfall• Surface Water• Groundwater

Xu and Wu, 2018 water-10-00148-1.

• Biomass and major agricultural crop

• Growing season water demand

• Consumptive water use

Effective rain (ER): The part of rainfall that is stored in the root zone and can be used by the plants. (FAO)Green water: Tem for the use of effective rain.Blue water: Fresh surface and groundwater.Consumptive water use: Water that is evaporated, transpired, incorporated into products or crops, consumed by humans or livestock, or otherwise not available for immediate use.

Total Precipitation

Biomass Production

Stream Flow

Runoff

ER available to other economic

sectors

Effective Rain Surface water available to

other economic sectors

Shallow Groundwater

Deep Aquifer

Groundwater available to other economic

sectors

Upstream Flow

Soil Water

Storage

Methodology

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• Climate data• Crop growth modeling monthly step• Annual stream flow, soil percolation flow• Land use for crops

• WDIbio c,i,j = 𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊 𝐷𝐷𝑊𝑊𝐷𝐷𝑊𝑊𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑊𝑊 𝐺𝐺𝑊𝑊𝑓𝑓𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐷𝐷𝐺𝐺 𝐵𝐵𝐺𝐺𝑓𝑓𝐷𝐷𝑊𝑊𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝑐𝑐,𝑖𝑖,𝑗𝑗

𝐹𝐹𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝐵𝐵𝐹𝐺𝐺𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊 𝑅𝑅𝑊𝑊𝐵𝐵𝑓𝑓𝑅𝑅𝑊𝑊𝑅𝑅𝑊𝑊 𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝑊𝑊𝐺𝐺𝐴𝐴𝑊𝑊𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝑊𝑊𝑖𝑖,𝑗𝑗

• WAInon bio c,i,j = 1- 𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝑊𝐴𝐴𝐺𝐺𝑓𝑓 𝑅𝑅,𝐺𝐺,𝑗𝑗

WD bio c,i,j - Water required for growing biomass

WAI non ag c,i,j – Fraction of freshwater resource available for non-agricultrue sectors and services

WAI non bio c,i,j – Fraction of freshwater resource available for non-bioenergy sectors and services

• Soil moisture storage• Geospatial analysis at region,

state, and county levels• Historical and future scenarios

Xu and Wu, 2017, http://water.es.anl.gov/documents/ Xu and Wu, 2018 water-10-00148-1.

Annual Water Resources from Effective Rain

(a) Smith method

(b) NHDPlus V2

(c) USDA-SCS (corn)

Multiple datasets and methods are available.

Regional variability of effective rain is significant across United States.

Estimates from three existing methods for corn show substantial variations.

Intensity of effective rain in growing season will affect irrigation water needs.

Xu and Wu, 2018 water-10-00148-1.

Monthly Effective Rain Resource and Irrigation Needs in Growing Season

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• ETc is evapotranspiration for the crop.• Green area shows effective rain used (green water, in depth per month), 2008.• Blue area shows irrigation requirement (blue water, in depth per month), 2008.

Xu and Wu, 2018 water-10-00148-1.

Annual County-Level Green Water Available for Other Sectors in 2008

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• County-level mean WAI_R non_ag:– When effective rain meets the crop water demand of

total corn, soybeans, and wheat production for agriculture and bioenergy

• County-level mean WAI_R non_bioenergy:– When effective rain meets the crop water demand of

total corn production for bioenergy– On average, > 90% of effective rain resources are

available in all but 149 counties in IA, NE, MN and IL, a majority of which with WAI_R non_bioenergy values 0.8-0.9

• County-level mean WAI_R non_ag:– When effective rain meets the crop water demand of

total corn production for agriculture and bioenergy

Xu and Wu, 2018 water-10-00148-1.

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WAI_Rnon_ag Range Number of Counties Top Four States with Most Counties

0.23 – 0.3 5 Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota

0.31 – 0.5 106 Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, South Dakota

0.51 – 0.6 138 Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota

0.61 – 0.7 184 Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas

0.71 – 0.8 244 Indiana, Illinois, Kansas, Montana

0.81 – 0.9 320 Indiana, Kansas, Montana, Wisconsin

0.91 – 1.0 1697 Georgia, Kentucky, Texas, Virginia

Degree of Annual Green Water Resource Availability

Xu and Wu, 2018 water-10-00148-1.

Growing Season Green Water Resource Available to Other Economic Sectors

Growing season-based water availability index for Corn Belt, Pacific, Lake States, and Northern Plains, would decrease 0.12, 0.08, 0.06, and 0.07, respectively, compared with the annual-based index using Smith method.

Off-season green water would be fully available to other sectors. 15

0

200

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800

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

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1.00

Gro

win

g se

ason

pre

cipi

tatio

n (m

m)

WA

I_R

non_

agbi

o(G

row

ing

seas

on)

WAI_R_NHD WAI_R_USDAWAI_R_Smith Precipitation (growing season)

Agricultural and bioenergy production for corn in 2008

Xu and Wu, 2018 water-10-00148-1.

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Green Water for Biomass Production under Potential Scenarios

Wu and Ha, 2017. https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2017/02/f34/2016_billion_ton_report_volume_2_chapter_8.pdf

• Demand for effective rain would increase per acre of land from BC1&ML 2017 to HH3&HH 2040.

• The changes are - Concentrated in south and

southeast states.- Resulted from increase in

acreages of rain-fed biomass production.

- Substantial in some areas• Green water available to other

economic sectors is likely to decrease

17

Scope of This Work

• Rainfall• Surface Water• Groundwater

Xu and Wu, 2018 water-10-00148-1.

• Biomass and major agricultural crop

• Growing season water demand

• Consumptive water use

Effective rain (ER): The part of rainfall that is stored in the root zone and can be used by the plants. (FAO)Green water: Tem for the use of effective rain.Blue water: Fresh surface and groundwater.Consumptive water use: Water that is evaporated, transpired, incorporated into products or crops, consumed by humans or livestock, or otherwise not available for immediate use.

Total Precipitation

Biomass Production

Stream Flow

Runoff

ER available to other economic

sectors

Effective Rain Surface water available to

other economic sectors

Shallow Groundwater

Deep Aquifer

Groundwater available to other economic

sectors

Upstream Flow

Soil Water

Storage

Blue water resource use for growing crops includes:

– Consumptive irrigation water use in crop growing season

Soil moisture storage is critical in water resource accounting.

Amount of soil water carried over a given period is affected by soil type, landscape, climate, and land cover, among other factors.

Soil moisture storage is higher in central – eastern states and the northwest before planting season.

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Determine Crop Demand for Surface and Ground Water Irrigation

Source: NASA NLDAS-2

Xu, Wu, and Ha. Manuscript under review with GCB Bioenergy

Average Soil moisture storage (mm) for the top 1m layer in March

Methods to Estimate Blue Water Demand

Method Description

I BWFo Original BWF used in WF calculation. Based on evapotranspiration

with effective rain.

II BWFsurvey_adjust BWFo adjusted/validated with irrigation survey data. (WATER)

III BWF1mo Soil moisture accumulated 1 month prior to the planting month.

IV BWF3mo Soil moisture accumulated 3 months prior to the planting month.

V BWFNLDAS2 Monthly SM storage data from NLDAS-2. (Mitchell, 2004; Xia et al.,

2012)

VI BWFSWAT Simulated by using calibrated and validated SWAT model. (White et

al. (2015)

VII BWFFRIS Irrigation water withdrawal and consumptive use ratios. (FRIS USDA

NASS, 2010), (Dieter et al., 2018)

BWF – Blue Water Footprint Xu, Wu, and Ha. Manuscript under review with GCB Bioenergy

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0

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30

40

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Crop

Are

a m

illio

n ha

)

BW V

olum

e (B

illio

n m

3 )

BWFo BWF survey_adjustBWF 1mo. BWF 3mo.BWF SWAT BWF NLDAS2BWF FRIS Harvested crop acreage (Million ha)

Xu, Wu, and Ha. Manuscript under review with GCB Bioenergy

Comparison of Regional Crop Blue Water Volume by Various Methods

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Stream Flow and Renewable Groundwater Flow

Source: USGS, USEPA: NHDPlus V2

Annual Soil Percolation Flow Contributed to Shallow Aquifer

Source: USGS (Reitz et al. 2017).

Annual Stream Flow

Xu, Wu, and Ha. Manuscript under review with GCB Bioenergy

Available Surface and Renewable Ground Water for Non Bioenergy Sectors in 2008

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WAI_surface water WAI_groundwater

• Surface water use for irrigating bioenergy crops accounts for less than 0.1% of total flow at county level nationally.

• Renewable groundwater use for irrigation varies significantly in geographical regions; some regions could require up to full capacity of annual renewable groundwater resource if

- Groundwater from deep aquifer is not used for irrigation.- Crop water demand is fully met.

Xu, Wu, and Ha. Manuscript under review with GCB Bioenergy

Wu and Ha, 2017. https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2017/02/f34/2016_billion_ton_report_volume_2_chapter_8.pdf

Blue Water Demand for Biomass Production under Potential Scenarios

• Total consumptive irrigation water intensity on per acre basis would decrease from BC1&ML 2017 to HH3&HH 2040; the changes are significant in Northern Plains and surrounding states.

• The reduction is primarily resulted from

– Decrease in irrigated land that grows annual biomass, and

– Increase in acreages that grow perennial grass and other cellulosic.

Consumptive Irrigation Volume for Potential Scenarios by Region

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0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Blue

Wat

er F

ootp

rint

(bill

ion

m3 /

yr)

2008 BC1_2017 BC1_2040 HH3_2040

• Estimated total surface and groundwater irrigation demand

Xu, Wu, and Ha. Manuscript under review with GCB Bioenergy

Degree of Surface Water Available to Other Sectors and Services

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Range of WAI_Snon bio (%) Number of Counties That Fall within Each Range

2008 BC1 2017 BC1 2040 HH3 2040

0< WAI_Snon bio < 99.4% 0 0 0 0

99.4% < WAI_Snon bio < 99.95% 6 14 10 8

WAI_Snon bio ≥ 99.95% 3099 3089 3094 3096

• Change in surface water volume use in each region is minimal.

• More than 99.4% of the surface flow is available for other sectors and services in all future scenarios.

Xu, Wu, and Ha. Manuscript under review with GCB Bioenergy

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

WD

I_P b

io

2008 BC 2017 BC 2040 HH3 2040

State-Level Renewable Groundwater Irrigation Demand under Potential Scenarios

• Groundwater demand is primarily concentrated in two states.

• After initial increase in BC2017, demand would eventually decrease under HH3 2040 scenario.

• Changes in groundwater irrigation are small in other states.

Xu, Wu, and Ha. Manuscript under review with GCB Bioenergy

Degree of County-Level Renewable Groundwater Availability for Other Sectors

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Range of WAI_Pnon bio Number of Counties That Fall within Each Range

2008 BC1 2017 BC1 2040 HH3 2040

WAI_Pnon bio = 0 88 99 91 89

0 < WAI_Pnon bio < 0.5 22 26 26 21

WAI_Pnon bio ≥ 0.5 2998 2983 2991 2998

Xu, Wu, and Ha. Manuscript under review with GCB Bioenergy

• Compare with 2008, between 1 and 11 counties would be affected by groundwater use in areas with extremely low renewable groundwater availability.

- Assume irrigation demand for ground water is fully met by shallow groundwater resources.

- Irrigation by groundwater from deep aquifer was not included.

Key Findings The method used to determine effective rain directly affects the estimate of

green water resource use and irrigation needs for biomass and agriculture crops, and the quantity of water that is available for other economic sectors.

Based on our analysis using 2008 data: In 149 Midwestern counties, more than 80% of green water resources were available for other economic sectors after water demand for biomass production was met. In the remaining biomass-growing counties in the United States, more than 90% of green water resources were available for other economic sectors.

With an increase in acreages of rain-fed biomass production, the demand for green water resources for biomass production would increase, and availability to other sectors is likely to decrease in several regions.

The impact of increased biomass production to surface water availability is minimal on the basis of current surface water use patterns.

Future scenarios investigated in this study would initially adversely affect renewable groundwater availability in a few states because of changes in irrigation demand; however, the level of available renewable groundwater would gradually increase and eventually return to its 2008 level.

– In some of the investigated scenarios, several counties would require up to full capacity of annual renewable groundwater resources, if deep aquifer groundwater is not withdrawn for irrigation.

Limitations and Recommendations for Research Uncertainties

– Results are limited to datasets and knowledge available at the time of the study and assumptions made in developing the potential production scenarios.

– Changes in the management and practices of surface and groundwater irrigation could affect the results of the assessment.

Water availability estimates from this study could– Support decision makers considering geospatial variations when planning

terrestrial biomass production site, feedstock type, and production scales.

– Be used in water resource planning for the management of multi-sector resource demand at local, state, and federal levels.

– Evaluate environmental and economic implications, when integrated with other land use, emission, and economic tools/models

Alternative water resource– Availability of other potential water resources especially in water

stressed regions must be addressed.

DISCLAIMER

This presentation was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor UChicago Argonne, LLC, nor any of their employees or officers, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of document authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof, Argonne National Laboratory, or UChicago Argonne, LLC.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTBioenergy Technologies Office

Office of EERE, DOE

Contactmwu@anl.gov

WATER.es.anl.gov