Freight market chartpack - Nov 2016

Freight Market

Nov 2016

This report has been produced for general information. Whilst care has been taken in the

production of this report, no liability or responsibility can be accepted for any loss incurred in any

way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information contained herein.

Contact : Daejin Lee / [email protected] / + 82 10 3462 5311

mailto:[email protected]

Baltic Dry Index & Forward Freight Agreement

2

Spot Market Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Monthly % YTD Yearly %

Trans Pacific 7618 7603 8225 ▲8% 5447 ▼7%

Trans Atlantic 7132 8082 12115 ▲50% 6156 ▼11%

Fronthaul 10973 11785 14737 ▲25% 9626 ▼14%

Backhaul 4119 4376 5153 ▲18% 2423 ▲8%

Dry Bulk Earning Av. 7501 7870 9713 ▲23% 5851 ▼12%

FFA Market Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Monthly % YTD Yearly %

BDI Spot 828 868 1070 ▲23% 645 ▼12%

Cal 2016 628 638 661 ▲3% 597 ▼33%

Cal 2017 702 719 769 ▲7% 691 ▼28%

Cal 2018 816 819 823 ▲1% 798 ▼23%

Cal 2019 900 896 885 ▼1% 877 ▼20%

※ Source: Baltic Exchange, HJS


BDI 1200

Cal17 780

Cal18 830

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16

Pt BDI Cal17 Cal18 Cal19

* 10 days moving average graph


Weighted Dry Index

3 ※ Source: Baltic Exchange, HJS

Weighting - Fleet Cape PMX SMX HSZ Dry %

Trans Pacific 1,057 1,299 2,093 1,677 6,126 57%

Trans Atlantic 183 563 835 1,283 2,864 27%

Fronthaul 178 299 165 132 774 7%

Backhaul 212 300 220 166 898 8%

Total 1,631 2,460 3,313 3,258 10,662 100%

Weighted Earning Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Monthly % YTD Yearly %

Capesize 11807 11696 14761 ▲26% 7254 ▼3%

Panamax 5462 6704 9048 ▲35% 5170 ▼7%

Supramax 6869 6710 7195 ▲7% 5625 ▼16%

Handysize 6094 6117 6534 ▲7% 4951 ▼8%

Weighted Dry Index 779 804 947 ▲18% 5563 ▼10%

BCPI(commodity price) 881 923 - - - -


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Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16

(Pts) ($/day) BDI Pacific Earning

Atlantic Earning Weighted Dry Index (right)


Baltic Dry Index

Dry Bulk Earning Spread by Size



0

500

1,000

1,500

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

(pts)

BDI 2013 2014 2015 2016 FFA

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Jan

-13

Ap

r-13

Jul-

13

Oct

-13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Jul-

14

Oct

-14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15

Jul-

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Oct

-15

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-16

Ap

r-16

Jul-

16

Oct

-16

Sector Spread Cape/PMX 20 MA

PMX/SMX 20 MA

SMX/HANDY 20 MA


Atlantic - Pacific Earning Spread

Atlantic - Pacific Earning Spread Seasonality



(3,000)

(2,000)

(1,000)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000


CAPE PMX

SMX HSZ

-8000

-4000

0

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8000

12000

Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16

CAPE

PMX

SMX


Capesize C5TC & Forward Freight Agreement

6


Trans Pacific 12012 11174 13715 ▲23% 6964 ▼3%

Trans Atlantic 10567 12191 18138 ▲49% 7396 ▼3%

Fronthaul 17420 18445 23344 ▲27% 13689 ▼14%

Backhaul 5194 6260 7288 ▲16% 1176 N/A

C5TC Average 11376 11576 14706 ▲27% 7222 ▼12%


2Q 2016 6685 6685 6685 - 6219 ▼5%

3Q 2016 7691 8098 8098 - 7676 ▼31%

4Q 2016 10467 10863 12587 ▲16% 10049 ▼25%

Current Year 6824 7094 7522 ▲6% 6703 ▼28%

Next Year 8534 8651 9215 ▲7% 8474 ▼25%



17@9,000

5TC 15,000

18@10,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000


$ per day C5TC Cal17 Cal18



Capesize 5TC average

Capesize Fronthaul Route (Baltic C9)



0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000


CAPE 2013 2014 2015 2016 FFA ($/day)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

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($/day)

CAPE FH 2013 2014 2015 2016


Capesize Trans Atlantic Route (Baltic C8)

Capesize Trans Pacific Route (Baltic C10)



0

10,000

20,000

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($/day)

CAPE TA 2013 2014 2015 2016

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($/day)

CAPE TP 2013 2014 2015 2016


Panamax P4TC & Forward Freight Agreement

9


Trans Pacific 5651 6794 7809 ▲15% 5008 ▼4

Trans Atlantic 4871 6837 12496 ▲83% 5556 ▼10%

Fronthaul 10178 11489 14335 ▲25% 9388 ▼14%

Backhaul 1020 1263 2635 ▲109% 916 ▲63%

P4TC Average 5430 6596 9319 ▲41% 5217 ▼9%


2Q 2016 4899 4899 4899 - 4893 ▼13%

3Q 2016 5769 5746 5746 5413 ▼22%

4Q 2016 6566 6600 7782 ▲18% 6074 ▼16%

Current Year 5078 5077 5374 ▲6% 4873 ▼21%

Next Year 5817 5982 6488 ▲8% 5680 ▼20%



17@ 7000

p4TC 11,500

18@ 7,500

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000


$ per day P4TC Cal17 Cal18



Panamax 4TC average

Panamax Fronthaul Route (Baltic P2A)



0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000


PMX 2013 2014 2015 2016 FFA

($/day)

0

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10,000

15,000

20,000

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PMX FH 2013 2014 2015 2016 ($/day)


Panamax Trans Atlantic Route (P1A)

Panamax Trans Pacific Route (Baltic P3A)



0

5,000

10,000

15,000

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25,000


PMX TA 2013 2014 2015 2016 ($/day)

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15,000

20,000


PMX TP 2013 2014 2015 2016 ($/day)


Supramax S6TC & Forward Freight Agreement

12

Spot Market Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Oct 2016 Monthly % YTD Yearly %

Trans Pacific 6565 6192 5648 ▼9% 5154 ▼15%

Trans Atlantic 7191 7360 10243 ▲39% 6349 ▼17%

Fronthaul 10469 10854 12601 ▲16% 9162 ▼7%

Backhaul 4288 4450 4189 ▼6% 3217 ▼35%

S6TC Average 7128 7214 8170 ▲13% 5970 ▼16%


2Q 2016 5795 5795 5795 - 5550 ▼21%

3Q 2016 6892 7064 7064 - 6146 ▼23%

4Q 2016 7089 7295 7736 ▲6% 6380 ▼20%

Current Year 5894 5989 6054 ▲1% 5471 ▼26%

Next Year 5974 6244 6531 ▲5% 5837 ▼21%



17@6,800

6TC 9,500

18@7,400

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000


$ per day S6TC Cal2017 Cal2018



Supramax 6TC average

Supramax Fronthaul Route



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5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000


SMX 2013 2014 2015 2016 FFA ($/day)

0

5,000

10,000

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20,000

25,000


SMX FH 2015 2013 2014 2015 ($/day)


Supramax Trans Atlantic Route

Supramax Trans Pacific Route



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5,000

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15,000

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25,000


SMX TA 2013 2014 2015 2016 ($/day)

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10,000

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SMX TP 2013 2014 2015 2016 ($/day)


Handysize H6TC & Forward Freight Agreement

15


Trans Pacific 6244 6252 5728 ▼8% 4664 ▼4%

Trans Atlantic 5900 5940 7584 ▲28% 5325 ▼12%

Am-Conti 5826 6350 8668 ▲36% 6267 ▼23%

Conti-Am 5974 5529 6499 ▲18% 4383 ▲10%

H6TC Average 6072 6096 6656 ▲9% 4995 ▼9%


2Q 2016 4791 4791 4791 - 4624 ▼18%

3Q 2016 5835 5792 5792 5071 ▼17%

4Q 2016 5844 6015 6211 ▲3% 5281 ▼17%

Current Year 4969 5001 5052 ▲1% 4600 ▼21%

Next Year 5125 5186 5442 ▲5% 5037 ▼20%



Cal17 5,700

H6TC 7600

Cal18 6000

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000


$ per day H6TC Cal2016 Cal2017



Handysize 6TC average

Handysize Fronthaul Route



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5,000

10,000

15,000


Handy 2013 2014 2015 2016 FFA ($/day)

0

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10,000

15,000

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Handy FH 2015 2013 2014 2016 ($/day)


Handy Trans Atlantic Route

Handy Trans Pacific Route



0

5,000

10,000

15,000


Handy TA 2013 2014 2015 2016 ($/day)

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2,500

5,000

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Handy TP 2013 2014 2015 2016 ($/day)


18

Thank you

As a Freight & Commodity market analyst and Freight Derivatives(FFA) manager at Hanjin Shipping, I provide information, analysis, and expert guidance on fleet chartering, risk management and long-term/short-term shipping business planning.

My main focus is dry bulk commodities and freight, but I also cover tankers and oil/energy. If you would have any feedback or questions on this report, I would like to learn from your expert views. Please feel free to comment or contact me anytime.

Daejin Lee

Hanjin Shipping

Dir: +82 2 3770 3379 Mob: +82-10-3462-5311

Email: [email protected] / [email protected]

This report has been produced for general information. Whilst care has been taken in the production of this report, no liability or responsibility can be accepted for any loss incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information contained herein. The information in this report may not be reproduced without the written permission of Hanjin Shipping Co., Ltd

본 자료에 수록된 내용은 당사에서 수집한 자료 및 정보를 기초로 작성된 것이나 당사가 그 자료 및 정보의 정확성이나 안정성을 보장할 수는 없으므로 어떠한 경우에도 본 자료는 투자의 결과에 대한 법적 책임 소재에 대한 증빙 자료로 사용될 수 없습니다. 본 자료에 첨부된 모든 자료는 당사의 저작물로서 당사의 동의 없이 어떤 형태로든 복제, 배포, 전송, 변형할 수 없습니다.





Freight market chartpack - Nov 2016

Data & Analytics

Transcript of Freight market chartpack - Nov 2016