Freescale Semiconductor Confidential and Proprietary Information. Freescale and the Freescale logo...
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Freescale Semiconductor Confidential and Proprietary Information. Freescale™ and the Freescale logo are trademarks of Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. 2005. TM Ken Davis Semiconductor Market Overview July 2005
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Transcript of Freescale Semiconductor Confidential and Proprietary Information. Freescale and the Freescale logo...
Freescale Semiconductor Confidential and Proprietary Information. Freescale™ and the Freescale logo are trademarks of Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. 2005.
TM
Ken Davis
SemiconductorMarket Overview
July 2005
TM Freescale Semiconductor Confidential and Proprietary Information. Freescale™ and the Freescale logo are trademarks of Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. 2005.
Slide 2
Semiconductor Market
Approaching The Cycle Trough?
TM Freescale Semiconductor Confidential and Proprietary Information. Freescale™ and the Freescale logo are trademarks of Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. 2005.
Slide 3
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan28303234363840424446485052545658
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan
May SC Shipments Down From Peak3 Month Moving Sum Of Worldwide Industry Revenues
Billions of $ % Change From Year Ago
2002 20022003 2003
Nov 2004 is All-Time High
2001 2004 20042001
Monthly Growth Rates DownFrom June 2004 Peak
May
2005 2005
May
TM Freescale Semiconductor Confidential and Proprietary Information. Freescale™ and the Freescale logo are trademarks of Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. 2005.
Slide 4
Semiconductor Market:Approaching The Cycle Trough?
World Semiconductor Market CyclesPercent Change Year Ago
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 '01 '03 '05
Years By Quarter
Gulf War
AsianFinancial
Crisis
PC Bubble1st Oil Shock
2nd Oil Shock
Market GrowthPeak
Market GrowthTrough
“PerfectStorm”
TM Freescale Semiconductor Confidential and Proprietary Information. Freescale™ and the Freescale logo are trademarks of Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. 2005.
Slide 5
Revenue Downturns Last Between 5-6 Qtrs Semiconductor Market Revenue Cumulative % Chg From Peak Quarter
-100-90-80-70-60-50-40-30-20-10
010
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
%
2Q00- 3Q01The Worst Downturn Ever!!
Quarters From Peak
1Q84-3Q85
1Q88- 1Q90
2Q95-3Q96
3Q97-2Q98
1Q91-4Q91
3Q73-1Q75
2Q04-
For the current cycle:
Quarter 0 is 2Q 2004,
Quarter 4 is 2Q 2005.
TM Freescale Semiconductor Confidential and Proprietary Information. Freescale™ and the Freescale logo are trademarks of Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. 2005.
Slide 6
141196
2818
1
37
-32
19
-8
4232
29
10
46
-17
2323
38
85
8
-9
4
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08
Semiconductor Market Billions of Dollars 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 $204 $139 $141 $166 $213 $226 $246 $273 $309
Semiconductor Market ForecastWorld Semiconductor Market Revenues
Annual % Change Average Growth 1984-04
Jan 2004 Forecast2004 29%2005 0%2006 6%2007 14%
Source: Semiconductor Industry Association
CAGR: 10%
TM Freescale Semiconductor Confidential and Proprietary Information. Freescale™ and the Freescale logo are trademarks of Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. 2005.
Semiconductor Market Growth By RegionSource: Semiconductor Industry Association, Annual % Change
35
-44
-13
3
-3
6 11219
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
33
-29
-8
165 8 12
2210
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
-22
29 2312 11 15
38 41
13
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
42
-29
-8
2818
3 8 10 12
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
Americas Asia Pacific
JapanEurope
% %
% %
2004: $39 Bil / 18% of Total2008: $49 Bil / 16% of Total
2004: $89 Bil / 42% of Total2008: $143 Bil / 46% of Total
2004: $46 Bil / 22% of Total2008: $62 Bil / 20% of Total
2004: $39 Bil / 18% of Total2008: $55 Bil / 18% of Total
CAGR: 13%
CAGR: 8%CAGR: 9%
CAGR: 6%
TM Freescale Semiconductor Confidential and Proprietary Information. Freescale™ and the Freescale logo are trademarks of Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. 2005.
Semiconductor Market Growth By ProductSource: Semiconductor Industry Association, Annual % Change
36
-27
-2
19 2414
99 11
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
40
-31
1426 27
613 16 18
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
-61
-14
3 1340 36
12
61
9
-80-60-40-20
020406080
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
27
-22
-3
7
25
11 11 13 16
-40
-20
0
20
40
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
Non-DRAM DRAM
MicrocontrollersDSP
% %
% %
2004: $12 Bil / 6% of Total2008: $20 Bil / 6% of Total
2004: $8 Bil / 4% of Total2008: $13 Bil / 4% of Total
2004: $27 Bil / 13% of Total2008: $30 Bil / 10% of Total
2004: $186 Bil / 87% of Total2008: $279 Bil / 90% of Total
CAGR: 3%
CAGR: 12%CAGR: 13%
CAGR: 11%
TM Freescale Semiconductor Confidential and Proprietary Information. Freescale™ and the Freescale logo are trademarks of Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. 2005.
Semiconductor Market Growth By ProductSource: Semiconductor Industry Association, Annual % Change
17
-27
215 11 11 10 10 10
-40
-20
0
20
40
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
36
-29
-4
18
33
1810 11 14
-40
-20
0
20
40
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
-24
312 17
09 11 15
38
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
Microprocessors Analog
Logic
% %
%
2004: $50 Bil / 23% of Total2008: $81 Bil / 26% of Total
2004: $31 Bil / 15% of Total2008: $44 Bil / 14% of Total
2004: $30 Bil / 14% of Total2008: $45 Bil / 14% of Total
CAGR: 9%
CAGR: 13%
CAGR: 10%
TM Freescale Semiconductor Confidential and Proprietary Information. Freescale™ and the Freescale logo are trademarks of Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. 2005.
Semiconductor End-Market GrowthSource: Dataquest May 2005, Annual % Change
32
-31
115
23
6 7 515
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
29
-20
310
22
7 115
10
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
21
-33
214
22
6 4 216
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
24
-11
6 812
712 12
15
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
Total Data Processing
AutomotiveConsumer
% %
% %
2004: $89 Bil / 41% of Total2008: $117 Bil / 39% of Total
2004: $16 Bil / 7% of Total2008: $25 Bil / 8% of Total
2004: $36 Bil / 16% of Total2008: $49 Bil / 17% of Total
CAGR: 7%CAGR: 8%
CAGR: 8% CAGR: 12%
TM Freescale Semiconductor Confidential and Proprietary Information. Freescale™ and the Freescale logo are trademarks of Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. 2005.
Semiconductor End-Market GrowthSource: Dataquest May 2005, Annual % Change
58
-38
-7
2032
5 7 6 14
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
66
-25 -28
-9
163 3
-4
5
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
77
-40
1734
46
8 8 615
-60-40-20
020406080
100
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
27
-38-23
617
2 4 8 13
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
Communications Wireless Subscriber
WirelineWireless Infrastructure
% %
% %
2004: $36 Bil / 17% of Total2008: $51 Bil / 17% of Total
2004: $56 Bil / 26% of Total2008: $77 Bil / 26% of Total
2004: $18 Bil / 8% of Total2008: $24 Bil / 8% of Total
2004: $2 Bil / 1% of Total2008: $2 Bil / 1% of Total
CAGR: 9%CAGR: 8%
CAGR: 2%
CAGR: 7%
TM Freescale Semiconductor Confidential and Proprietary Information. Freescale™ and the Freescale logo are trademarks of Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. 2005.
Semiconductor End-Market GrowthSource: Dataquest May 2005, Annual % Change
11
-36
1927 22
4 4 917
-50-40-30-20-10
010203040
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
73
-32
-1 -8
167 8 9 12
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
Industrial Military% %2004: $4 Bil / 2% of Total2008: $6 Bil / 2% of Total
2004: $19 Bil / 8% of Total2008: $26 Bil / 9% of Total
CAGR: 9%
CAGR: 8%
TM Freescale Semiconductor Confidential and Proprietary Information. Freescale™ and the Freescale logo are trademarks of Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. 2005.
Gartner
SIAMay 2005
June 2005
IC InsightsJune 2005
SemicoMay 2005
2005
5.9
6.0
4.0
2.0iSuppli
May 2005
2006
6.5
8.8
8.0
Merrill LynchApr 2005 0.0 10.0
6.1 0.1
8.1
2007
5.1
11.0
NA
19.8
9.2
15.0
2008
14.7
13.5
NA
18.1
10.4
25.0
Semiconductor Market Growth ForecastsPercent Change
TM Freescale Semiconductor Confidential and Proprietary Information. Freescale™ and the Freescale logo are trademarks of Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. 2005.
Slide 14
Drivers Of The
Semiconductor Market
TM Freescale Semiconductor Confidential and Proprietary Information. Freescale™ and the Freescale logo are trademarks of Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. 2005.
Slide 15
4
1114
9
19
-8
32
42
-9
-32
37
1
18
6
28
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08
3.2
4.3
2.7
1.8
4.1
3.1
3.6
2.4
3.22.8
3.53.2
3.1
1.5
3.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08
Healthy World Economic Growth Is Supporting Semiconductor Market Growth
World Economic GrowthAnnual % Change
World Semiconductor GrowthAnnual % Change
1994-2004Avg Growth
1994-2004Average Growth
Source: Global Insight Source: SIA
CAGR: 10%
TM Freescale Semiconductor Confidential and Proprietary Information. Freescale™ and the Freescale logo are trademarks of Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. 2005.
Slide 16
Excess Semiconductor Inventory in the Electronics Supply Chain
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Q4'00
Q1'01
Q2'01
Q3'01
Q4'01
Q1'02
Q2'02
Q3'02
Q4'02
Q1'03
Q2'03
Q3'03
Q4'03
Q1'04
Q2'04
Q3'04
Q4'04
Q1'05
Q2'05
Billions of Dollars of Excess at Quarter's End
Source: iSuppli Corporation
TM Freescale Semiconductor Confidential and Proprietary Information. Freescale™ and the Freescale logo are trademarks of Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. 2005.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Slowing Semiconductor CapitalSpending In 2005-2006
Bil $ % Revenues
Capital Spendingas % of Revenues
(CAPEX)
SC CapitalSpending
(Bil $)
Source: Gartner
% Change In Capital Spending 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Apr 04 +42% +31% +3% -29% +10%Oct 04 +54% +1% -16% +9% +50%Jan 05 +54% -12% +3% +15% +38%Apr 05 +61% -8% -8% +11% +33%Jul 05 +64% -7% -9% +10% +37%
TM Freescale Semiconductor Confidential and Proprietary Information. Freescale™ and the Freescale logo are trademarks of Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. 2005.
Slide 18
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
1Q98 1Q99 1Q00 1Q01 1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
90 92 94 96 98 '00 '02 '04
Capacity Utilization DrivesSemiconductor Market Pricing
Average Selling Price(In Dollars)
Capacity Utilization1Q 1998 – 4Q 2005
Annual % Change ‘00 ‘01 ’02 ’03 ’04 +10 -14 -11 +8 +8
Cap
acit
y U
tiliz
atio
n (
%)
$ %
Lowerin 1Q2005
TM Freescale Semiconductor Confidential and Proprietary Information. Freescale™ and the Freescale logo are trademarks of Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. 2005.
Slide 19
Summary
• The semiconductor market in 2004 posted its strongest growth since 2000.
• For 2005, the consensus expectation is for slower semiconductor market growth. How much slower depends upon:
• The slowdown in the global economy• The impact of semiconductor capital spending on the semiconductor
pricing environment• Shifts in inventory demand
Freescale Semiconductor Confidential and Proprietary Information. Freescale™ and the Freescale logo are trademarks of Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. All other product or service names are the property of their respective owners. © Freescale Semiconductor, Inc. 2005.
