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Frederic S. Ury Ury & Moskow, LLC Fairfield, Connecticut Slide 2 Change in every industry is occurring faster than ever before. Not just change but disruptive change. Lawyers are not exempt.. Slide 3 Legal and ADR services are not going to disappear. They will be delivered differently. Mail: Pony Express-email- text- Music, news, books, consumer products, and consumer services. Borders Books and Blockbuster. Television, Cable and Net-flicks. Slide 4 1,123,000 law office jobs 2004. 100,000 prospective students. 54,000 fewer jobs since 2004. Law school applications are down 50% Slide 5 Globalization/regulation Technology Nature of clients Demographics Slide 6 Over one million lawyers in India are willing to work for $25.00-50.00 per hour. Outsourcing overseas and insourcing in the US. Ethics 20/20 changes concerning supervision. We are a net exporter of legal services by billions. Slide 7 Slide 8 Slide 9 Bought by Thomson Reuters. In 2011 opened a 400 seat office in Texas. Outsourcing is returning to the US because of a glut of newly minted attorneys who would rather work for $50,000 than not work at all. Slide 10 Slide 11 Slide 12 Australia --publicly traded law firms. The UK --Legal Services Act, ABS, Multi- Disciplinary Practices & passive non-lawyer investment. Legal disciplinary practices may have up to 25% non-lawyer owners or managers. Borderless practice in Europe, Australia & Canada. Ontario licenses and regulates paralegals. Slide 13 Slide 14 Slide 15 Same model for over 200 years. Jacoby Meyers law suit. MDP in District of Columbia. Licensing Paralegals in the State of Washington. Change is slowly happening. Ethics 20/20the art of the possible. Slide 16 Slide 17 Slide 18 Nothing has impacted the law like technology. 24/7 accessibility. Small firms can compete with large firms for large transactions or complex litigation. Law firms have the same law library Clients have the same access. Slide 19 Slide 20 Slide 21 Slide 22 E-law firms, + outsourcing + co- sourcing =network of law firms. UPL and regulatory considerations. Cloud computing and confidentiality. Grads who cannot find work are opening virtual law firms without mentoring. Ethics 20/20 technology rules. Slide 23 Slide 24 Slide 25 Slide 26 Slide 27 The internet is the primary source for information. Webmd and legal sites. This generation has grown up using the internet to research, study, shop, socialize, and play. Music, newspapers, and books. Knowledge is available for free. These sites are owned by non-lawyers. Slide 28 Slide 29 Slide 30 Slide 31 Slide 32 Slide 33 Slide 34 Slide 35 Slide 36 Slide 37 Slide 38 Slide 39 Slide 40 Slide 41 Technology that is a disruptive change. True access to justice will occur when the ability of computers to search combined with artificial intelligence allows anyone to answer complex legal problems quickly and easily. Slide 42 Slide 43 Slide 44 Slide 45 Slide 46 Slide 47 Slide 48 Slide 49 Slide 50 Slide 51 Slide 52 Slide 53 Slide 54 Slide 55 55 Slide 56 Slide 57 Slide 58 Slide 59 Slide 60 Slide 61 Slide 62 Slide 63 Slide 64 Slide 65 Slide 66 Slide 67 Slide 68 Slide 69 Slide 70 Combination of arbitration and mediation Pre-select arbitrator and mediator Start with mediation and if cannot agree go into arbitration. Some issues can be resolved and others sent to arbitration. Can be same for mediation and arbitration or two different people/panel. Slide 71 Start arbitration process. After a portion of the hearingcould be a summary of positions or more testimony The parties meet with a mediator to attempt to negotiate a resolution after hearing part or all of each others case. Slide 72 Comprehensive arbitration Expedited process with limited discovery. Fixed fee arbitration. Bracketed Arbitration: High/low Slide 73 What are you going to be able to charge for? What is going to be available for free? This new generation is used to getting their intellectual property (books and music) for free. Why not dispute resolution systems? Slide 74 Slide 75 1960s45% corporate, 55% individuals 197553% corporate, 40% individuals 199564% corporate, 29% individuals Originally, this change meant higher income for lawyers because corporations paid more. But, corporations are increasingly inclined to drive down the cost of legal services and lawyers have priced themselves out of the market for middle income clients. Source, Prof. Thomas Morgan, GWU School of Law Slide 76 74% Private practice 8%Corporations 8%Private Industry 3%Judiciary 1%Legal Aid/Public defender 1%Education 1% Private association 5%Retired/Inactive Information provided by Hinshaw & Clubertson LLP Slide 77 48%Solo 15%2-5 Lawyers 7%6-10 Lawyers 6%11-20 Lawyers 6%21-50 Lawyers 4%51-100 Lawyers 14%101 plus Lawyers Slide 78 Clients expect law firms to reduce legal expenses. Is the billable hour going to replaced by fixed fees, blended rates, or result oriented billing? Corporations and individual clients are not paying for first year associate. Looking for less expensive: ADR But ADR is becoming as expensive as court. Slide 79 More strapped litigants skip lawyers in court. Wall Street Journal, July 22, 2010. In CT 85% of divorces have one self- represented party. 10% of criminal cases in CT have private counsel. We need a new business model. Opportunity for ADR providers. Slide 80 Overseas regulation changes. Non lawyer ownership in US Ethics 20/20 white papers on Alternative Business structures. Pro bono models. Low bono model. Slide 81 55 percent of lawyers are baby-boomers. They are approaching retirement age. Can they afford to retire? Fewer lawyers are entering the profession. How will fewer attorneys impact CLE providers and bar associations? Ethics and regulations for an aging bar. Slide 82 Slide 83 Slide 84 Rank by Surplus Ann. Jobs Bar Passers Grads Surplus Wages 1. New York 2100 9728 4771 7687 $56.57 5. Massachusetts 715 2165 2520 1450 $43.89 11. Connecticut 316880 510 564 $43.89 32. Rhode Island 102209 184 107 $39.65 38. Maine 75153 91 78 $29.70 41. New Hampshire 92154 146 52 $30.84 48. Vermont 51 55 191 4 30.48 National 26,239 53,50844,159 27,269 $44.22 Slide 85 Slide 86 Slide 87 Slide 88 Slide 89 Slide 90 Slide 91 Slide 92 New Mexico Bar demographics 2007 and 2011 Slide 93 Slide 94 Slide 95 Slide 96 Slide 97 Slide 98 Slide 99 Slide 100 Slide 101 Slide 102 Slide 103 Slide 104 Slide 105 Slide 106 Slide 107 Slide 108 Slide 109 Slide 110 Slide 111 Slide 112 Slide 113 The End of Lawyers? by Richard Suskind The Vanishing American Lawyer by Professor Thomas Morgan Tomorrows Lawyers, by Richard Suskind Essential Qualities of the Professional Lawyer, Written by 19 authors. To be published by the ABA in August 2013 Slide 114 Frederic S. Ury Ury & Moskow, LLC 883 Black Rock Turnpike Fairfield, Connecticut 06825 Telephone: 1-203-610-6393 Fax: 1-203-610-6399 Email: fred@urymoskow.com Email: fred@urymoskow.com Website: www.urymoskow.comwww.urymoskow.com