Frano Barbir Role of Renewable Energy

8/6/2019 Frano Barbir Role of Renewable Energy

1/19

Role of Renewable Energyin De-growth Future

Frano BarbirFaculty of Electrical Engineering, Mechanical

Engineering and Naval ArchitectureUniversity of Split

Split, [email protected]


2/19

AbstractIt is relatively easy to envision a future based on renewable energy. Present day

renewable energy technologies could technically replace the existing fossil fuel

based technologies. Electricity could be produced by solar and wind power plants.

Fuels could be produced from biomass or from electricity. Heat could be producedby solar panels or from electricity. There would be no pollutants and greenhouse

gases emissions. However, energy in such a future would be far more expensive

than it is today. This would have dramatic effects on global economy, social order

and everyday life, and therefore on the patterns of energy use. The question is

whether such a system would be still better than the clearly unsustainable present

system continuing in the future with all its problems (such as volatile prices, globalwarming and climate change, wars over remaining scarce resources, etc.) which in

the future would only get worse. Such a question could only be answered with a

help of complex energy and economic models that attempt to simulate the future,

and only with a great deal of uncertainty associated with such a complex task.

Even if the results indicate that such a system would be better it would be

impossible to impose and implement the transition to an energy system that shouldhave such dramatic and unforeseeable consequences. This paper will evaluate the

use of renewable energy technologies in a future where they do not simply replace

the existing technologies in both quantity of energy and the type of services they

provide, but in a future where they satisfy the basic needs of individuals and

sustainable communities. Transition to such a system would be possible but only

on individual and local levels.


3/19

coal

natural

gas

petroleum usefulenergy

energy lossesrenewable

nuclear

electricity

transport

residential

industri a

l

non-energy

heat

electricity

transport

powerp

lants

Present Global Energy System


4/19

usefulene

rgy

transport

residential

industrial

heat

electricity

transport

Renewableen

ergy:so

lar,wind,hydr o

,biom

ass

energ

y

storage

e

lectrici t

y

heat

fuels

Hypothetical Future Energy SystemBased on Renewable Energy


5/19

100% Solar insolation at the

edge of atmosphere (1,367 kW/m2)

70% Solar insolation

at Earth surface (max. 1 kW/m2

average


6/19

Annual electricity Potential electricity Energy returnproduced (TWh) production (TWh) on investment

Nuclear 2626 5300 1.1 to 15:1

Hydropower 2894 8680 11 to 267:1Wind 160 83000 18:1Biomass power 218 NA NASolar PV 8 2000 3.75 to 10:1Solar Thermal 1 100000 1.6:1Geothermal 63 1000 2 to 13:1

Tidal 0.6 450 6:1Wave ~0 750 15:1

Fossil fuels 11455 Coal 50:1Oil 19:1Natural gas 10:1

Comparison of Energy Sources

EROI Energy Return on Investment


7/19

The Key Problem with Renewable Energy Sources

Net Energy is high!

Fossil FuelsUseful Energy

High Quality Feedback

Net energy is low?!RenewableEnergy

Sources

Useful Energy

High Quality Feedback

EROI Energy Return on Investment


8/19

Fossil fuels enabled tremendous growth of economy!This growth would have been impossible if it was basedon renewable energy

Continuous growth is impossible on limited resources!

What are the alternatives to growth:- Steady state- Fall- Pulsing

Fossil Fuel Era A Short Interlude BetweenSolar Energy Past and Solar Energy Future?

1860

DifferentScenarios

W

orldEn

ergyCo ns

umption

2010


9/19

Can the economy be maintained at a certain(hopefully high) level on renewable energy?

Or is the way down unavoidable?

Can we make a prosperous way down?Is introduction of renewable energy going tohelp or hurt?

Questions with no easy answersQuestions with no easy answers


10/19

Assets

FossilFuels

Solar

CO2

AA Global Energy ModelGlobal Energy Model

Assets

Pollution

CO2

GWP


11/19

Modeling Results:Modeling Results: The effects of timing

The results of techno-economic analysis and simulation performed atUniversity of Miami (1992); updates (2008)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

GrossWo

rldProduct(trillionU.S.$

)

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

CO2in

atmosphere(ppm)

Gross World Product (2004 U.S.$)

CO2 in the atmosphere (ppm)

Renewables in 2000

business

as usual

in 2025

renewablesin 2000

business as usual

in 2025


12/19

The results of techno-economic analysis and simulation performed atUniversity of Miami (1992); updates (2008)

Modeling Results:Modeling Results: The effects of cost ratio

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

GrossWorldPro

duct(trillionU.S.$

)CR = 1.33

CR = 2.0

CR = 3.0

CR = 4.0

Baseline

(business

as usual)

Gross World Product (2004 U.S.$)

CR = cost ratio =EROI fossil fuels

EROI renewables


13/19

There should be no competition there should be transition- Insisting on short term economic competitiveness favors "status quo,"(especially without internalization of all (past, present and future)

external costs)

Transition requires vision and commitment- Massive use of renewable energy sources (and their carriers)

could cause major disturbances in global economy

- Those disturbances may be smaller than those that will be caused by

continuing with present fossil fuels energy system

Shift to renewable energy sources will require a major shiftin our mind sets, priorities, culture and life style- shift from the goals of continuous growth to the goals of

sustainable development !- promote energy and resources conservation !- give priorities to the protection of the environment !- new operational system Capitalism 3.0 !

Transition will take a long time

How to change an entire energy system?How to change an entire energy system?
http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/1576753611/ref=sib_dp_pt


14/19

During expansion:

growth is progress

Now:

sustainable is good

In economy that is stagnating or shrinking:

smaller, more efficient, cooperation

Values in Society are Changing!Values in Society are Changing!

In economy that is growing: bigger, faster, competition


15/19

Shelter

Reliable Food Supply (

Reliable Energy Supply (only locally produced will be reliable)

Reliable Water Supply (

Local governance responsive to local populations needs

Focus on SELF-SUFFICIENCY and RESILIENCE

Big urban conglomerations are likely to be most vulnerable

We have no other options but to reorganize our communitys life

to a more simple, more self-sufficient and more local way

What makes life bearable in times of crises?

SUBSISTENCE MINIMUM

If a way down is unavoidableIf a way down is unavoidable


16/19

Basic energy needs:

Comfort (heating and cooling)Hygiene

Cooking

Refrigeration

Some gadgets and tools

Some transportation

How to satisfy basic energy needs:

Passive solar architectureEnergy conservation measures

Renewable energy sources

Energy storage

Patterns of energy use


17/19

http://aiacolorado.org/awards/ http://trendsupdates.com

Visions of self-sufficient sustainable communities


18/19

But it is running out of

Cheap oil

Environmental capacityTolerance for inequity

Money for better options

Time for a smooth transition

Leadership to do what is required

The World is NOT Running out of Energy

ConclusionsConclusions

Transition to sustainabile energy may be possible

But only on individual and local levels.


19/19

Acknowledgment

This work has been partially supported by CroatianMinistry of Science, Education and Sports

(project No. 177-0000000-1931)

Frano Barbir Role of Renewable Energy

Documents

Transcript of Frano Barbir Role of Renewable Energy