Frankl Second Gen

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Sustainable Production of Second-Generation BiofuelsPotential and Perspectives in Major Economies and Developing Countries

LaunchBerlin, 9 February

Dr. Paolo Frankl

Head, Renewable Energy Division


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Acknowledgements

Thanks to:

Dr. Antonio Pflgerfor initiating and guiding this project

GTZ for financing and supporting this project on behalf of

the BMZ

Dr. Mike Enskat, Raya Khne, Dr. Thomas Breuer,

Thorben Kruse

Consultants and experts involved in the project German Biomass Research Centre (DBFZ)

Franziska Mller-Langer, Jens Giersdorf, Anastasios

Perimenis

Local consultants in the studied countries

Participants of the project workshop in February 2009

Reviewers


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Background ETP 2008

0

200

400

600

800

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2005 2020 2035 2050

Mtoe

Exajoules

0

20

40

60

80

100

120140

160

180

200

2005 2020 2035 2050

Millionhectares

Biodiesel: BtL

Biodiesel: oil seed

Ethanol: cellulosic

Ethanol: cane

Ethanol: grain

Source: ETP 2008

Demand for bioenergy is increasing: 150 EJ in 2050 (IEA Blue Map

Scenario)

Biofuels demand: 29 EJ from 160 Mha of land

2nd-generation biofuels only from energy crops still competition

with food production / nature conservation

Use of residues could significantly reduce land demand


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Based on a global assessment and specific findings from eight

country profiles (Brazil, Cameroon, China, India, Mexico, South

Africa, Tanzania, Thailand)

Objectives of this study are to: Analyse the potential for second-generation biofuels from

agricultural and forestry residues

Identify required framework conditions and key barriers for the

new technology, in particular outside the OECD

Provide detailed information to policy maker and other stakeholder

to ensure a sustainable development of the new industry

Introduction


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Global bioenergy potentials vary widely (33-1 500 EJ)

Key factor: land availability

High bioenergy potentials through intensive agriculture(industrial cattle farming, increased yields)

This development is highly uncertain in developing countries

Many countries face growing demand for food and land (e.g. Thailand,

India, China)

agricultural sector dominated by smallholders and subsistence farmer(e.g. South Africa, Thailand, India, Cameroon)

Uncertainty in projected bioenergy potentials


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Current potential for second-generation biofuels from residues:

Currently, biofuels provide 1.7% of total transport fuel demand

2nd-generation biofuels from 10% of residues could produce two to

three times the current amount of biofuel

This is 4-6% ofcurrent transport fuel demand

Main resultsCurrent potential for second-generation biofuels from residues


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In 2030 crop and timber production increases:

Main resultsPotential for second-generation biofuels from residues in 2030


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Biofuels are projected to provide 9.3% of total transport fuel in 2030

Second-generation biofuels from 10% of global residues would be

sufficient to cover 45-60% of projected biofuel demand in 2030

This does not require additional agricultural / forestry land

Main resultsPotential for second-generation biofuels from residues in 2030


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Main results

Theoretical production costs for 2nd-generation biofuels in studied countries

(based on current opportunity costs for residues)

Source: Based on analysis presented in Transport, Energy and Co2, IEA, 2009

Current production costs would still be higher than the price of gasoline

Long-term projections see second-generation biofuel costs close to or

well below gasoline prices, depending on oil prices

Profitability increases with higher oil-prices


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Sustainability

General benefits:

Selling residues in general creates a win-win situation for farmer

Potential for job creation through transport of residues and biofuel

production

No additional land required

Basically no competition with food production

low risk of (indirect) landuse change related to possible over-

exploitation of residues

Sustainable production of second-generation biofuels requires careful

country-specific analysis and management: Assessment of specific biomass supply and conversion costs

Evaluation of impacts of residue utilisation on local agricultural markets

Including trade-offs through increasing demand for residues

Monitoring of nutrient-cycles and impact on soil productivity

Ensuring small-holder integration, e.g. through co-operatives


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Key messages

There is a considerable potential for second-generation biofuels

from residues 10% of residues could cover 5% of transport fuel

demand in 2030

Roughly two-third are located in non-OECD countries in Asia, Latin

America and Africa To mobilise it, intensive RD&D efforts in OECD countries and

emerging economies with sufficient capacities (e.g. Brazil, China,

India) are needed over the next 10-15 years

Developing countries first need to invest in agricultural production

and infrastructure to improve framework conditions

Second-generation biofuels as part of an integrated food and energy

strategy could then provide economical, social and environmental

benefits


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Key messages - 2

Specific issues for Developing Countries

Framework conditions to set up a 2nd generation biofuel industry not

currently sufficient

Poor infrastructure, lack of skilled labour, limited financial resources

Capacity building needs to start now for smooth introduction of 2nd

gen biofuels when they become technically available and

economically viable in developing countries

Can start through other uses of bioenergy as well

Enhanced cooperation will be key

More and better data needed from a wider set of countries

Frankl Second Gen

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