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Framework for adaptation control information system in the Rio de la Plata: the case of coastal...
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Transcript of Framework for adaptation control information system in the Rio de la Plata: the case of coastal...
Framework for adaptation control information system in the Rio de
la Plata: the case of coastal fisheries
Walter Norbis – AIACC LA 32
RIO DE LA PLATA AND OCEANIC FRONTRIO DE LA PLATA AND OCEANIC FRONT
°6 2 °6 1 °6 0 °5 9 °5 8 °5 7 °5 6 °5 5 °5 4 °5 3 °5 2 °5 1 °5 0
L W
° 6 2 ° 6 1 ° 6 0 ° 5 9 ° 5 8 ° 5 7 ° 5 6 ° 5 5 ° 5 4 ° 5 3 ° 5 2 ° 5 1 ° 5 0
° 4 0
° 3 9
° 3 8
° 3 7
° 3 6
° 3 5
° 3 4
° 3 3
°40
°39
°38
°37
°36
°35
°34
°33
B U E N O S A IR ES
SA M B O R O M BO N
G EN ER AL LA VALLE
M AR D E L P LA TA
Q U EQ U E N
M O N TEV ID EO
B AH IA BLA N C A
A R G E N T IN A
U R U G U A Y
5 m
1 0 m
2 0 m
5 0 m
1 00 m
2 00 m
100 0 m
B R A S I L
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
tem
pe
ratu
re (
ºC)
J F M A My Ju Jl A S O N Dmoths
35º30' - 53º30'36º30' - 54º30'40º30' - 59º30'
41º30' - 63º30'43º30' - 64º00'46º30' - 65º30'
-3,00
-2,00
-1,00
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
nov-81
nov-82
nov-83
nov-84
nov-85
nov-86
nov-87
nov-88
nov-89
nov-90
nov-91
nov-92
nov-93
nov-94
nov-95
nov-96
nov-97
nov-98
nov-99
-59° -58° -57° -56° -55° -54° -53° -52° L W
-59° -58° -57° -56° -55° -54° -53° -52° -51°
-40°
-39°
-38°
-37°
-36°
-35°
L S
-40°
-39°
-38°
-37°
-36°
-35°
-34°
SW SE
N(NE)
RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN FISHERIES
1) variability in abiotic factors affecting the spatio-temporal distribution and abundance
2) effects of ecological interdependencies
3) fluctuations in costs and product prices that determine changes in exploitation intensity and in the quantity demanded
4) variations in fishing effort determined by fleets with different fishing power and type of gear
5) variability in the behavior of policy makers due to value judgments when taking management decisions
Sources of uncertainty in fisheries(Hilborn & Peterman, 1996)
1) in the estimates of fish abundance
2) in the structure of the mathematical model of the fishery
3) when estimating model parameters
4) in future environmental conditions
5) in the response of users to regulations
6) in future management objectives
7) in economical, political and social conditions
Uncertainty in future environmental conditions
1) have an important impact on the abundance and spatio-temporal distribution of fish resources
2) the prediction of environmental future conditions is required, especially for resources sensitive to an extreme degree to environmental changes.
Alternative assumptions: 1) environmental constant conditions correspond to the average of the historical observations; 2) environmental conditions randomly vary conditions around the average, with a known probabilistic density function; 3) environmental conditions show systematic patterns, e.g., periodic or linear trends. In this context, random variability about past average conditions might be considered when modelling a fishery
Uncertainty in future management objectives
Management strategies should be periodically revised and adapted to the dynamic conditions of the stock, environment and resource users,
as well as to changes in the intertemporal preferences of the fishing sector.
VULNERABILITY
Artisanal fishery:
- Wheather (winds): limiting fishing trips
- River flow: affect species availability in the fishing areas
- Extreme events: affect bottom sediments (fishing zone)
VULNERABILITY
Industrial fishery (coastal zone untill 50 m depth:
- Two objetive species: “croaker” and “sea trout”. Change in spatio-temporal distribution
- Weather (frontal periods - winds): affect spatio - temporal resource availability
- time of search (higher economic cost)
System approach and adaptive management
INCLUDE:
- Socio - ecological practices
- Protection of species and temporal host areas (reproduction)
- Restrictions on harvest
- Environment variability
FISHERMEN PERCEPTIONS
Amenities
Disamenities
Weather or sea
related to uses
Example: fishermen don’t notice fluctuations
of resources untill they perceive changes of availability as consecuence of river flow
RELATED TO MANAGEMENT
Failure of fit between the temporal - spacial scales of:
a) Institutions (responsible for management)
b) Actors (fisheries components)
- Why?
- Where?
ADAPTATION(Managing adaptive change
or fail to adapt)
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORKS(causal chain)
Scientist informationSectorial information
Artisanal fisheries
migration(spatial changes along the coast)
reduce the ability of fishermen’s to catch in other conditions
increasing their vulnerability to the vicissitudes of life
relocating and finding employment outside of fisheries (agriculture)
extreme events: drive adaptations prevention of loss and tolerating loss
Economics aspects (markets)
Industrial Fisheries
- Change in resources uses (other species)
- Changes in technological aspects
RIO DE LA PLATA REGION
(last 30 years)
Positive trends: Precipitation
River flow
Sea level rise
South Atlantic Anticyclonic move towards South that normal position
Increasing eastearly (E) predominant winds
ENSO effect: warm phase/cold phase: rainy / dry