Fragility and Conflicts Kornelia Kiss Fragility and Crisis Management Unit 2014 January.

Fragility and Conflicts

Kornelia KissFragility and Crisis Management Unit

2014 January

Outline of the presentation

1. Understanding conflict & fragility2. Fragile States Principles3. Where are we now?4. New Deal for engagement in fragile states5. Monitoring fragile states 6. What and how to do differently?

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Understanding conflict Conflict is an inherent and legitimate part of social and

political life.

Conflict is often a precursor to positive change.

Understanding the causes of conflict: Motive Means Opportunity Triggers

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1. What is your understanding of fragility?

Definition of fragile states“A fragile region or state has weak capacity to carry out basic governance functions, and lacks the ability to develop mutually constructive relations with society. Fragile states are also more vulnerable to internal or external shocks such as economic crises or natural disasters. More resilient states exhibit the capacity and legitimacy of governing a population and its territory. They can manage and adapt to changing social needs and expectations, shifts in elite and other political agreements, and growing institutional complexity. Fragility and resilience should be seen as shifting points along a spectrum”

Which states are fragile ? • A World Bank/ADB list• An OECD list• The Commission Crisis Declaration list

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Definition of fragility by g7+ – a more dynamic point of view

"A state of fragility can be understood as a period of time during nationhood when sustainable socio-economic development requires greater emphasis on complementary peacebuilding and statebuilding activities such as -building inclusive political settlements, -security, -justice, -jobs, -good management of resources, and -accountable and fair service delivery."

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Linkages between Fragility and Conflict?

Conflict as a symptomsymptom of fragility

Conflict as a causecause of fragility

Conflict as a consequenceconsequence of fragility

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Specific features of fragile states

• Deficits in governance/lack of government capacity/legitimacy• Multiple priorities• Few implementing partners • Inability to maintain security• Inability to ensure that the essential needs of its population are met• Ungovernable flows of aid• Opaque decision-making by a small elite• Erosion of the people’s trust in the state’s formal institutions

Are the Paris Declaration principles applicable?• Ownership?• Harmonisation?• Alignment?• Managing for results?• Mutual accountability?

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FSP- can’t we do better?- 2011 analysis

Broadly on-trackPromote non-discrimination as a basis for inclusive and stable societies (6)

Partly on-track Align with local priorities in different ways in different contexts (7)

Partly off-track

Take context as the starting point (1)

Focus on statebuilding as the central objective (3)

Prioritise prevention (4)

Recognise the links between political, security and development objectives (5)

Off-track

Do no harm (2)

Agree on practical co-ordination mechanisms between international actors (8)

Act fast… but stay engaged long enough to give success a chance (9)

Avoid pockets of exclusion (10)

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WHERE ARE WE NOW?

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DEVCO Managed external assistance Budget + EDF Disbursements to fragile and crisis countries vs other partner countries (2012, in billions €)

DEVCOTotal disbursements

2012 that can be allocated to countries:

4.9 billions €

Table 5.11 Country breakdown of European Commission development aid in 2012(Part I.- ODA + Part II non-ODA)•Does not include regional, multilateral and "unallocated" disbursements that cannot be attributed to a country.11

DEVCO managed external budget+ EDF disbursements to fragile and crisis countries by DEVCO region (2012, in millions €)

Haiti only

Total disbursements that can be allocated to fragile

countries 2012:

2.7 billions €

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Half of the aid to fragile and crisis states goes to only eleven countries (2012)

Data based on Europeaid budget+ EDF disbursements 13

DEVCO managed external budget+ EDF disbursements to fragile and crisis countries by DAC sector(2012, in million €)

sorted by biggest


countries 2012:

2.7 billion €

(Note: analysis per DAC code results in a different total figure (2.9 DAC code file vs 2.7 billion EUR-Annual Report ) For the purpose of this analysis adjustment was made in the case of Occ. Palestine Territory+ Somalia)

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DEVCO managed external budget+ EDF disbursements to ALL countries by DAC sector(2012, in million €)

sorted by biggest


countries 2012:

7.2 billion €

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EDF 10 initial allocation vs. EDF 11 allocationShare of fragile states in the allocation

Total 14,907million €

EDF 10 initial allocation on 7 year projection

EDF 11 final allocation

Amount allocated to fragile states increased by 9% 16

Dili Declaration 2010

Conflict and fragility are major obstacles for achieving the Millennium Development Goals

(MDGs)

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Understand the CONTEXT

Analyitical tools

Analytical tools

New Deal country: fragility assessment Done by the nationals of the countries- only!5 days workshop usually, but need long time for validation

Conflict analysis 2 day workshop with DEVCO EAAS and acedemics

(Political Economy Analysis- discontinued in its current form)Deeper, can take 3-4 months, done by international consultants asking a lot of questions

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Why to do things differently? "Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but

expecting different results"

A. Eistein

Only 10% of the fragile countries have reached the MDGs

By 2015 half of the world's poor will be living in fragile countries

Eu Allocations to fragile and conflict affected states will increase

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The New Deal

- Fragile states, grouped in the g7+ and Donor community - set an International Dialogue on Peacebuilding and Statebuilding

- 4th High Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness (Busan, 2011) launched the New Deal - a new way of engaging in fragile states, with the statebuilding and peacebuilding at the core

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PSGsPeacebuilding and Statebuilding Goals

FOCUS terms of

engagement

TRUST commitments for results

Legitimate politics Foster inclusive settlements and conflict resolution

Security Establish and strengthen people’s security

Justice Address injustices and increase people’s access to justice

Economic foundations Generate employment and improve livelihoods

Revenues and services Manage revenues and build capacity for accountable and fair service delivery

Fragility assessment

One vision, one plan

Country compact

Use the PSGs to monitor

Support political Dialogue

Transparency

Risk sharing & risk management

Use & strengthen country systems

Strengthen capacities

Timely and predictable aid

3.The New Deal (Busan)

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3.Who has signed up?

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7 pilot countries 1. Afghanistan2. Central African

Republic 3. D.R. Congo4. Liberia5. Sierra Leone6. South Sudan7. Timor-Leste8. + Somalia

7 pilot countries 1. Afghanistan2. Central African

Republic 3. D.R. Congo4. Liberia5. Sierra Leone6. South Sudan7. Timor-Leste8. + Somalia

18 members (Union of Comoros : New Member)

(Chair)24

Pilot countries of New Deal

"Pilot" Country "Lead" Partner What happened

Afghanistan UK, Netherlands, Denmark

The Tokyo mutual accountability framework regarded as compact

Central African Republic France, EU Slowdown due to political situation

DRC Fragility assessment done

Liberia Sweden and USA

Fragility assessment done- compact in process (but on 1 PSG only)

Sierra Leone Fragility assessment done, compact forming in the background

South Sudan Denmark, UK, Netherlands

Fragility assessment done, compact was planned end of '13- situation?

Timor Leste Australia, (+EU offered)

Fragility assessment done

Somalia EU +NW: financial

1st New Deal compact endorsed, fragility assessment ongoing

Chad UNDP active25

New Deal Pilot countries and other g7+ member countries

Colour coding: New deal Pilot countries, Possible New Deal Pilot Countries, Other New Deal countries (members of g7+)

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HOW DO WE MONITOR FRAGILE STATES?

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The New Deal process

Fragility assessment workshopAnalysing the country's fragility along the 5 PSGs and their sub-dimensions

Fragility spectrum

Outputs

Fragility assessmenttext

Draft Indicators

Help: Menu of indicators(indicators working group)

Help: Guidance how to conduct a fragility assessment

Agree on priorities and form a Transition compact

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7 pilot countries have self-nominated themselves to pilot the new deal until 2015 five countries undertaken fragility assessments (Sierra Leone, Timor Leste, DRC, South Sudan, Liberia)

Fragility Assessments

The assessment asks four key questions:

1. Where are we now?

3. How do we get there?

4. How do we measure progress?

2. Where do we want to get to?

The Assessment

One Vision

One Plan

Indicators 29

Fragility assessment and spectrumDRC example

PSGPhase 1

Crisis

Phase 2.Rebuild &reform

Phase 3.Transition

Phase 4.Transformation

Phase 5. Resilience

Inclusive politics 2,2

Security 1,9

Justice 1,5Economic foundations 2

Revenues&Services 1,730

Fragility spectrum with subdimensions

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Comparison of fragility spectrums

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New Deal Indicators

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Inclusive politics

1.1 Political SettlementDiversity in representation (by gender, region and social groups) in key-decision making bodies (legislature, government, military, judiciary)Perception of representation (and its effectiveness) in government

1.2 Political Processes and Institutions Participation in elections and political processes by region,

gender and social groups

1.3 Societal Relationships Number of intra-group disputes that produce violence

Note: examples only, list is not comprehensive

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Security2.1 Security Conditions

-Violent deaths per 100,000 population (including homicides, mob violence, violence against civilians)-Incidence of rape and sexual violence-% of people that feel safe (perception survey)

2.2 Capacity and Accountability -Timely payment of police salaries-Recruitment practices and vetting processes

2.3 Performance and Responsiveness Level of confidence in police/security (%, disaggregated by gender, region, social group)


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Justice 3.1 Justice Conditions -% of victims who reported crimes to the authorities -Public confidence in the performance of justice systems

(formal and customary) including human rights mechanisms

3.2.Capacity and Accountability of Justice Institutions

Prison population in pre-trial detention past the legal limitation

3.3 Access to Justice Proximity to formal and customary justice institutions to the

public (basket indicators)


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Economic Foundations 4.1Productive Resources and Prospects for Growth % of population with access to useable and serviceable transport

networks, communication, water and energy (multiple indicators)

4.2 Jobs, Livelihoods and Private Sector Development % of labour force under- and unemployed (by youth, gender, region)

4.3 Natural Resource Management Existence and enforcement of regulatory framework for natural

resource management


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Revenues and Services 5.1 Revenues State monopoly and capacity to collect and administer tax,

customs and fees across the territory Tax revenue as a share of GDP

5.2 Public Administration Quality of public financial management and internal

oversight mechanisms (indicators from PEFA)

5.3 Service Delivery Distribution of services by region and social group Public satisfaction with service delivery


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Linkage between g7+ and Post-2015 Development Agenda

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What's new for EU programming and planning ?

Fragility elements taken into account: PEA, conflict analysis, fragility assessments;

PSGs as sectors of intervention;

Flexibility - Additional intervention to the three sectors!

Support to transition compacts or equivalent;

Ensuring synergies: ECHO, IFS, EDF/DCI, CSDP;

Using new tools (EU joint programming, JFDs, etc).

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Understanding Compacts

What is a New Deal compact? A simplified, flexible mutual accountability framework:

• WHAT are collective priorities?

• HOW can these can be delivered?

A commitment by national and international partners to be:• Transparent

• Realistic

• Compliant

A forum for strategic partnership that:• builds ownership

• delivers results

• facilitates collective risk management 42

Questions when considering a compact

Is the political environment right? Is there a commitment to FOCUS & TRUST? Who should be involved? How would the compact link to other

initiatives? What are likely risks and opportunities?

Compacts require political and strategic decision making

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What is a New Deal compact?

What + How = New Deal Compact

HOW?Build mutual TRUST with donors, through:

• Transparency• Risk-sharing• Use and strengthen country systems• Timely and predictable aid

WHAT?FOCUS on the PSGs: • Inclusive politics• Security• Justice• Economic foundations• Revenue and services

A mechanism to deliver on the New Deal

Figure developed by the g7+ at the working group meeting on New Deal implementation and indicators in Copenhagen, March 2012 44

Steps to prepare a compact

Overview of resources available for collective prioritisation

Regular reviews and revisions to ensure relevance

Political & strategic dialogue between national and international partners

BUDGET ENVELOPEBUDGET ENVELOPE

• National budgets

• Bilateral funding

• Multilateral funding

• Non-ODA (if relevant)

PRIORITIESPRIORITIES

•Based on available resources

Drawing from: • national visions• national development strategies• fragility /risk assessments• other plans

DELIVERY STRATEGYDELIVERY STRATEGY

•Division of labour

•Instruments for aid delivery

•Priority capacity needs

•Transition to country systems

ACCOUNTABILITYACCOUNTABILITY

•Timeframe from regular reviews

•Limited number of performance indicators

•Principles for compliance

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Somalia: the first New Deal compact 16th September 2013, signed in Brussels Led by the Somalis, with lead support of the EU and the

donors working together – and reach out to and involvement of all donors (Incl. Turkey and Arab countries)

Parts: 1. Priority actions identified along each peace building and

state building goals 2. Principles for partnership- mutual accountability partnership

with new financial architecture for Somalia 3. monitoring arrangements +Annex: list of actions by PSG

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The New Deal is an opportunity to… learn more about the partner country through the

fragility assessment; consolidate partner countries' ownership and

leadership; work with other donors closely and coordinate; use "tailor made" indicators for fragile states; conduct political dialogue on some of the root

causes of the conflict;

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Zooming out- Joint programing and Fragility - 'Country type' breakdown

Synergies Joint Programming - New Dealin Fragile StatesNew Deal Compact Joint Programming

Similarities:

Increase aid effectiveness Increase aid effectiveness

Joint analysis Joint analysisPossible synergies/links:

Focused on subset of priorities JP and ND can "cross-fertilise" each other Development focus

Joint government/donor strategy

JP may prepare ground for a joint EU dialogue in ND with the government Joint donor response

Donor-wide…and coordinates EU

position among ND donors Mainly EU(+)Coordination – with possible division of labour (different engagements around priorities)

Deeper division of labour makes both processes

more effectiveBuilt upon division of labour/ donor comparative advantage

Indicative allocations by priorityCompatible definition of

priorities and sectors Indicative allocations by sector/donor

2-3 years timeframe – revisited yearly

Compatible mid-term timeframes

Timeframe aligned with national development plan (3-5 years) but with interim, shorter phases, flexible

Entry points Joint Programming and New Deal

Potential links in following countries: Afghanistan, Burundi, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Sudan

Programming instructions for the EDF and DCI: Contain strong references on Joint Programming in fragile states: "In the case of fragile or conflict affected states, there is a particular need for a wider group of donors present in the country/region to participate in Joint Programming"

Commonalities of the two processes: Improve impact and aid effectiveness (AE issues such as "timely and predictable aid are mainstreamed in the ND); joint analytical framework and strategy

Sequence/synergies: JP could prepare the ground for joint EU TRUST donor commitments in future NDs

Resilience approach and Joint Programming,common aid effectiveness principles

Resilience/Joint Programming: potential

Joint programming with EU(+) Member States has potential to play a key role in supporting the resilience agenda

Common actors: DEVCO/ECHO/EEAS, MS Missions, partner country

Investing in resilience is cost-effective, as well as joint programming

Entry points: Ø Joint programming: joint analysis / joint response to

national dev. plan to include elements of risk/vulnerability assessments?

Ø Synergies in selecting resilience "flagship countries" that are also JP countries?

Ø Joint programming donor partners as "EU MS platform" for resilience, bringing coherence/complementarity further?

Joint programming with EU(+) Member States has potential to play a key role in supporting the resilience agenda

Common actors: DEVCO/ECHO/EEAS, MS Missions, partner country

Investing in resilience is cost-effective, as well as joint programming

Entry points: Ø Joint programming: joint analysis / joint response to

national dev. plan to include elements of risk/vulnerability assessments?

Ø Synergies in selecting resilience "flagship countries" that are also JP countries?

Ø Joint programming donor partners as "EU MS platform" for resilience, bringing coherence/complementarity further?

Aid effectiveness in Joint ProgrammingAND the New Deal as well:

P a r t n e r C o u n t r y

•Ownership & alignment

•Predictability & transparency

•Aid fragmentation

•Transaction costs

D o n o r s

•Influence

•Ability & willingness to do DoL

•Pressure to do everything in

"standalone"

•Value for money

•Visibility

“Working together is not just a moral obligation to help those less fortunate, but it is an investment in the long-term prosperity of all.”

High Level Panel Report

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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

QUESTIONS?

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Fragility and Conflicts Kornelia Kiss Fragility and Crisis Management Unit 2014 January.

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Transcript of Fragility and Conflicts Kornelia Kiss Fragility and Crisis Management Unit 2014 January.