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  • Paul Corral

    Alexander Irwin

    Nandini Krishnan

    Daniel Gerszon Mahler

    Tara Vishwanath

    FR AGIL IT Y AND CONFL ICT

    ON THE

    FRONT LINES OF THE FIGHT

    AGAINST POVERTY

    FR A

    G ILIT

    Y A

    N D

    C O

    N FLIC

    T O

    N T

    H E FR

    O N

    T LIN

    ES O F T

    H E FIG

    H T

    A G

    A IN

    ST P

    O V

    ER T

    Y

  • Fragility and Conflict

  • On the Front Lines of the Fight against Poverty

    Paul Corral, Alexander Irwin, Nandini Krishnan, Daniel Gerszon Mahler, and Tara Vishwanath

    Fragility and Conflict

  • © 2020 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved

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    Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: Corral, Paul, Alexander Irwin, Nandini Krishnan, Daniel Gerszon Mahler, and Tara Vishwanath. 2020. Fragility and Conflict: On the Front Lines of the Fight against Poverty. Wash- ington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1540-9. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO

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    ISBN: 978-1-4648-1540-9 ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-1547-8 DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1540-9

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  • v

    Contents

    Acknowledgments ....................................................................................................... ix

    About the Authors ........................................................................................................ xi

    Abbreviations ..............................................................................................................xiii

    Introduction .....................................................................................................................1

    An Urgent Challenge—and a Window to Respond ......................................1

    Book Structure ................................................................................................3

    Note .................................................................................................................3

    References ........................................................................................................3

    1. Fragility, Conflict, and Extreme Poverty .............................................................5

    Key Messages ...................................................................................................5

    Background: Living and Dying in a Two-Speed World ................................5

    Data Deprivation in FCS ................................................................................7

    Overcoming Data Deprivation .....................................................................10

    A Clearer Picture of Global Poverty ............................................................13

    Better Analysis in FCS Shows that Global Poverty Has Been Underestimated .....................................................................................14

    Poverty Rates Have Risen in FCS, as They Fall Elsewhere ..........................15

    Economies Chronically in FCS Are Driving the Patterns ...........................18

    Conclusions ...................................................................................................20

    Notes ..............................................................................................................20

    References ......................................................................................................21

    2. Challenges in Multiple Dimensions .................................................................23

    Key Messages .................................................................................................23

    Seeing Beyond Monetary Poverty ...............................................................23

    Losing Human Capital—Where It Is Needed Most ....................................26

    FCS and Growth: Negative Associations .....................................................28

  • vi Contents

    Picturing a Better Future? ............................................................................29

    Conclusions ...................................................................................................31

    Notes ..............................................................................................................31

    References ......................................................................................................31

    3. Long-Term Effects of Conflict on Poverty and Welfare .................................33

    Key Messages .................................................................................................33

    Introduction ..................................................................................................33

    Conflict through a Human Capital Lens .....................................................33

    The Impact of Conflict on Human Capital: Health ....................................34

    The Impact of Conflict on Human Capital: Education ..............................37

    Conflict and Intergenerational Socioeconomic Mobility ...........................40

    Conflict’s Impact on Labor Market Outcomes ...........................................43

    Impact on Productive Assets and Income-Earning Activities ...................44

    Conflict-Induced Displacement: How Do Refugees Impact Host Communities? .............................................................................45

    Adding It All Up: Conflict Imposes Heavy Costs that Extend to Future Generations ..........................................................................47

    Notes ..............................................................................................................48

    References ......................................................................................................49

    4. Patterns of Fragility—Understanding Diversity in Country Profiles ................. 53

    Key Messages .................................................................................................53

    Introduction ..................................................................................................53

    Cluster Analysis for Creating Country Typologies .....................................54

    An Empirical Approach to Exploring Patterns of Fragility ........................55

    Country Typologies .............