Frac Trends in Liquid-Rich Basins: A Focus on Further ...Step Down Analysis: The Step Rate Test...
Transcript of Frac Trends in Liquid-Rich Basins: A Focus on Further ...Step Down Analysis: The Step Rate Test...
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Frac Trends in Liquid-Rich Basins: A Focus on Further $/BOE Minimization and
Efficiency Gains
Leen Weijers, Liberty Oilfield Services
December 18, 2019
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25–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
SPE-194345
Trends in the North American Frac Industry: Invention through the Shale Revolution
Leen Weijers, Chris Wright, and Mike Mayerhofer; Liberty Oilfield Services
Mark Pearson, Larry Griffin and Paul Weddle; Liberty Resources
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35–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
Conventional vs Shale Frac’ing• 1947 – present
• Higher permeability sand – Moving the hydrocarbon molecule to the frac
• Vertical wells, mostly single stages
• Focus on conductivity
Sand0.1 – 1,000 mD
Shale
High pressure and temperature cook kerogen
3
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45–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
• Persistence, ingenuity & luck
• Thin fluids; Almost no proppant
• Multi-directional networks
• Interaction w/ natural fracs
• Massive network from single stage in vertical well: 4,000 x 1,000 ft
• Proof: Killed offset wells and had “eyes” to see what happened “down there”
Dawn of the Shale Revolution“The Frac that Changed Everything”
From: SPE 77441 & 90051 (2001)
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55–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
Sand0.1 – 1,000 mD
Shale0.000 01 – 0.1 mD
• ~2000 – present
• Low permeability shale – Bringing the frac to the hydrocarbon molecule
• Multi-stage horizontal wells
• Focus on complexity – “2 miles of plumbing”
5
Conventional vs Shale Frac’ing• 1947 – present
• Higher permeability sand – Moving the hydrocarbon molecule to the frac
• Vertical wells, mostly single stages
• Focus on conductivity
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65–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
Increase in Fractivity through the Shale Revolution
HHP – 10x
~2 million
~20 million
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75–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
Increase in Fractivity through the Shale Revolution
Stage Count – 20x
~25,000
~500,000
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85–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
Increase in Fractivity through the Shale Revolution
Prop Mass – 40x
~5 billion
~200 billion
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95–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
“Big Picture” Liquid-Rich Frac Trends• Stage count stabilizing and
declining in some basins
• Lateral lengths catching up to Williston
• Rates keep increasing
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105–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
“Big Picture” Liquid-Rich Frac Trends• Stage count stabilizing and
declining in some basins
• Lateral lengths catching up to Williston
• Rates keep increasing
• Rockies basins have stabilized fluid volume and proppant mass at ~1,000 lbs/ft
• Texas basins approaching ~2,000 lbs/ft
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115–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
• Larger fracture network• Horizontal wells
• Longer laterals
• Increase in proppant mass
• Increase in fluid volume
• Denser fracture distribution• Higher stage count
• Higher pump rate
• Changes in perf clustering
• Cost-sensitive• Fewer additives
• Local proppant
Shale Revolution Frac Trends
Stabilizing design size?
DJ Basin
Further increase if basin swaps to local proppant ?
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125–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
Poll
Text to: 22333
Leenweijers113
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135–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
13
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145–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
• Larger fracture network• Horizontal wells
• Longer laterals
• Increase in proppant mass
• Increase in fluid volume
• Denser fracture distribution
• Higher stage count
• Higher pump rate
• Changes in perf clustering
• Cost-sensitive• Fewer additives
• Local proppant
Shale Revolution Frac Trends
Slightly decreasingstage intensity
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155–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
• Larger fracture network• Horizontal wells
• Longer laterals
• Increase in proppant mass
• Increase in fluid volume
• Denser fracture distribution
• Higher stage count
• Higher pump rate
• Changes in perf clustering
• Cost-sensitive• Fewer additives
• Local proppant
Shale Revolution Frac Trends
Increasing clusters/stage
Increasing rate/ft/stage
Increasing rate/perf
Williston Basin
Stable perfs/stage
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eXtreme Limited Entry – INITIAL 4 STAGE TRIAL – Q1 2016
First Sand Ramp Cluster Efficiency (RA prop tracers): • Non XLE Avg. = 59%• Non XLE Avg. = 85%*
*With Solid Particle Diverter(SPE 184828)
• XLE = 85% Initial PCE• XLE = 93%* Final PCE
*No other diversion
XLE ∆Pperf Trials: • 2,000 psi – 4,000 psi • End of Stage Step Down Analysis
Courtesy: SPE-189880 – Weddle et al.
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Multi-well calibration of Np has resulted in
a 75% holes open design assumption:• Max rate before SDT impacts the number of
holes initially open.
• Intra-stage SHmin variability impacts % of
holes open.
• Calibration of Np gives ability to consistently
achieve desired pump rate.
Step Down Analysis:The Step Rate Test performed pre- & post-proppant
• SPE 62549 L. Weijers, C.A.Wright…et al)
ΔPp = Ppf = 0.2369 ρ Q2
DP4 NP
2CD2
Where:
ΔPperf = Total perforation friction, psi
Q = Total Flow Rate, BPM/perf
DP = Diameter of perforation, in.
CD = Perforation coefficient
ρ = Fluid density, lbs/gal
NP= Number of open perforations
eXtreme Limited Entry – CALIBRATING HOLES OPEN – Np
Courtesy: SPE-189880 – Weddle et al.
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185–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
• Larger fracture network• Horizontal wells
• Longer laterals
• Increase in proppant mass
• Increase in fluid volume
• Denser fracture distribution
• Higher stage count
• Higher pump rate
• Changes in perf clustering
• Cost-sensitive• Fewer additives
• Local proppant
Shale Revolution Frac Trends
Increasing rate/ft/stage
DJ Basin
Increasing clusters/stage
Stable rate/ft/stage
Stable perfs/stage
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195–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
• Larger fracture network• Horizontal wells
• Longer laterals
• Increase in proppant mass
• Increase in fluid volume
• Denser fracture distribution
• Higher stage count
• Higher pump rate
• Changes in perf clustering
• Cost-sensitive• Fewer additives
• Local proppant
Shale Revolution Frac Trends
Critical mass for HVFR
Reduction in gel loading and use
Williston Basin
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205–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
• Larger fracture network• Horizontal wells
• Longer laterals
• Increase in proppant mass
• Increase in fluid volume
• Denser fracture distribution
• Higher stage count
• Higher pump rate
• Changes in perf clustering
• Cost-sensitive• Fewer additives
• Local proppant
Shale Revolution Frac Trends
Discontinuation of gel for some operators
Slight reduction in gel use and increase in FR use?
DJ Basin
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215–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
• Larger fracture network• Horizontal wells
• Longer laterals
• Increase in proppant mass
• Increase in fluid volume
• Denser fracture distribution
• Higher stage count
• Higher pump rate
• Changes in perf clustering
• Cost-sensitive• Fewer additives
• Local proppant
Shale Revolution Frac Trends
20/40 mesh out
Delaware Basin
40/70 mesh generating traction
100 mesh increasing fast
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225–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
• Larger fracture network• Horizontal wells
• Longer laterals
• Increase in proppant mass
• Increase in fluid volume
• Denser fracture distribution
• Higher stage count
• Higher pump rate
• Changes in perf clustering
• Cost-sensitive• Fewer additives
• Local proppant
Shale Revolution Frac Trends
20/40 down but not out
DJ Basin
40/70 mesh favorite, but VERY operator specific preferences
100 mesh mostly absent
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235–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
But What Drives Production? Trends
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245–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
Multiple Linear Regression: Codell
24
RMSE as % of Mean Response = 31%
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255–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
What Drives Production - Statistics (Codell Example)
MLR = Multiple Linear RegressionPB MLR = Physics-Based Multiple Linear RegressionACE = Alternating Conditional ExpectationsGAM = Generalized Additive ModelMARS = Multivariate Additive Regression Splines
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265–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
What Drives Production? $/BO Optimization“There’s a Fine Line Between a Numerator ($) and a Denominator (BO)”, Yogi Berra
BO
$
$BO
Happy Valley
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275–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
The American Shale RevolutionBetter Wells
+70%since 2012
+28%since 2012
DJ shows least improvement
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285–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
28
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295–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
Let’s Frac……a Sankey Diagram for Efficiency Loss
Sch
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Mo
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3rd
NP
Frac
3rd
Par
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nti
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Do
wn
tim
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No
n-P
um
pin
g
Frac
Now averaging ~35% of every day for US Frac industry
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305–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
30
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315–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
Throughput & DowntimeThe Usual Suspects – The W’s
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325–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
• Water – 3 Olympic-size swimming pools
• Diesel – 10,000 gal
• Sand – 10 to 15 train cars
• Additives – 2,500 gal
Modern Frac Operations = Bulk LogisticsAn Average Frac Day for ~350 US Frac Fleets
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335–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
Modern and Efficient Frac OperationsIt’s a Frac’ing Factory
• Redundancy
• Made for purpose
• Extended lifetime
• Efficient delivery
• Better neighbor
Containerized Sand
Dual-Fuel Quiet Pumps
Tier 4 PumpsPreventative Maintenance Monitoring
Wireline Pumpdown Warehouse Trailer
Extra Equipment
Iron Truck
Vorteq Missile
Bulk Chemicals
Quiet Blender and Hydro
FracMaxx
PowderedAdditives
Containment
Real-Time Monitoring
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345–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
Volume DiscountingThank Your Service Company Representative Today!
+206%since 2012
-29%since 2012
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355–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
Shale Revolution
World Consumer Savings$45 * 30 billion bbl/year = ~$1.3 Trillion/Year
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365–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
36
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375–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
In Summary - The American Shale RevolutionTechnology & Efficiency Have Improved Our Competitiveness
Parameter Unit
2012
Average*
2017
Average* Change
Lateral Length ft 5580 7625 37%
Stage Count 19.3 38.6 100%
Stage Intensity ft/stage 296 208 -30%
Proppant Mass lbs 3,506,284 11,891,000 239%
Proppant Mass per Lateral Foot lbs/ft 677 1,632 141%
Fluid Volume bbl 74,411 243,983 228%
Fluid Volume per Lateral Foot bbl/ft 14.4 33.2 131%
Average Proppant Concentration PPG 1.17 1.21 3%
Max Rate bpm 57.6 81.7 42%
Max Rate per Lateral Foot bpm/ft/stage 0.20 0.42 105%
365-Day Cumulative Oil BO 61,044 108,209 77%
365-Day Cumulative Oil per Lateral Foot BO/ft 12.2 17.7 46%
365-Day Cumulative Oil Equivalent BOE 91,465 159,942 75%
365-Day Cumulative Oil Equivalent per Lateral Foot BOE/ft 18.2 25.7 41%
Well Cost Million$ $7.2 $5.1 -29%
Cost per Barrel Oil Equivalent $/1-Year BOE $86 $32 -63%
Cost per Barrel Oil $/1-Year BO $128 $46 -64%
*Averaged over 10 basin / formations: Will iston Middle Bakken and Three Forks, PRB Niobrara and Frontier/Turner, DJ Codell and
Niobrara, Delaware Basin Wolfcamp and Bone Spring, Midland Basin Wolfcamp and Eagle Ford; Production metrics from 2016 wells.
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385–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
• Production Interference
• Can exemplary kids and save their hippie parents?
• Can re-fracs / frac protects with some surfactant / CO2 start a “huff ‘n puff” EOR shale revolution?
• Can perforation strategies further reduce stage count to save completion cost?
• Can we replace more “viscosity” with “velocity” in the DJ Basin and save on chemicals?
• Is Regional Sand the next big change in the Rockies for “just-good-enough” proppant economics?
• Efficiency improvements (pumping >50% of all time)
• Opportunity for downtime and non-pumptimereduction
• Electric fleet pie in the sky?
Industry Challenges & Opportunities
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395–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
• US Shale Revolution has transformed US and World Energy
• Still remains an almost exclusive American Revolution
• Technological changes continue as operators find better ways to minimize $/BO(E)
• Similar changes in most US basins, with gradual move to larger volumes, “spread the wealth” delivery in the reservoir and cheaper materials
• “Big picture” statistical analysis support these changes
• Possibly seeing diminishing returns in some basins
• Environmental footprint of oil & gas production is shrinking
• Together, operators and service providers are improving pumping efficiencies
• Room for improvements with the W’s – Wireline, Water, Wellhead and Weather – and Pumps
• Economic and humanitarian benefits are massive
• Biggest benefit for lower-income citizens of the world
Conclusions
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405–7 February 2019The Woodlands Waterway Marriott Hotel and Convention Center, The Woodlands, TX, USA
SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference
Thank You! Questions?
Apart from doubling human life expectancy, reducing global poverty, saving the
whales, enhancing human mobility, enabling modern life, providing cheap
energy that saves global consumers trillions of $s every year, bringing
manufacturing jobs back to the USA, reducing US dependence on foreign oil and
reducing US per-capita CO2 emissions to 1964 levels – what have oil, natural gas
and frackers ever done for us?