Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2018

Virginia Home Sales Report Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2018

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PWAR Home Sales Report

Second Quarter 2021

Prince William Association of REALTORS® Market Report

Key Takeaways

Economic Conditions • In the second quarter of 2021, economic growth continued to expand both statewide and in the

Prince William region. The unemployment rate is still falling, though the pace of job growth slowed a bit in May.

• Consumer confidence is up strongly in the second quarter, reflecting optimism about the economy and pent-up consumer demand.

• Mortgage rates have settled back to around 3% and likely will remain below 3.5% for the rest of the year.

Housing Market Conditions • There were 3,029 homes sold in the PWAR footprint during the second quarter, a 38% increase

from last year.

• Home prices are rising rapidly in the PWAR market. The second quarter median sales price was $470,000, which is 15% higher than a year ago, a gain of $60,000.

• The supply of active listings increased modestly in the second quarter; however, the overall inventory remains tight in the PWAR footprint. There were 469 active listings at the end of the second quarter, inching up 2% from a year ago.

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Economy

4.2% Is the May-2021 unemployment rate in the PWAR footprint, which is up from April-2021

2.98% Is the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate during the first week of July 2021, which is down 0.09% from a year ago

Housing Market

832 More home sales in the PWAR footprint in Q2-2021 compared to last year

15% Percent change in median sales price in the PWAR region in Q2-2021 compared to a year ago

$584.2 Million dollars more in total sold volume in the PWAR footprint in Q2-2021 compared to last year

2% Percent change in active listings at the end of Q2-2021 in the PWAR market compared to a year ago

0.5 Months of supply in the PWAR footprint in Q2-2021, which is down from a year ago

Key Trends Dashboard, PWAR

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Economic Overview

Virginia’s economy is opening back up as vaccination rates climb and restrictions have been lifted. There have been job gains across most sectors of the economy. In addition, there is significant pent-up consumer demand in the market, which is a good sign for strong economic growth this year. Even as signs are positive, there remains uncertainty about how COVID-19 will impact the economy over the long-term.

In May 2021, which is the latest data available, there was a total of 3.89 million jobs in Virginia. After several months of job gains, the number of jobs in the state declined slightly between April and May. This slowdown indicates the uncertainty that remains in the economy, although the overall employment picture remains positive in the commonwealth.

The statewide unemployment rate was 4.1% in May 2021. The unemployment rate has fallen significantly from its peak last spring, although it remains higher than pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate in the Prince William region was 4.2% in May 2021, up slightly from 4.1% in April 2021, but down significantly from the peak of 11.4%. Like the rest of the state, the region’s economy should continue to improve in 2021 and unemployment likely will fall in the months ahead.

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Figure 1 Virginia Month-to-Month Change in Jobs

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted

In Thousands

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Consumer confidence continues to improve into the summer. In June 2021, the measure of confidence in the present economic situation was 161.7, up from 155.6 in May. The measure of consumers’ confidence in future economic conditions rose to 107.2 in June, an increase from May, though below earlier springtime levels. A consumer confidence index above 100 indicates people are feeling more optimistic about economic conditions.

Mortgage rates hit rock bottom levels at the end of last year and into early 2021. Despite a brief uptick in rates in late March and early April, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate has settled back down to around 3% at the beginning of July. Mortgage rates will rise slightly over the course of the next several months, but it is likely that rates will remain below 3.5% throughout the year.

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Figure 2Unemployment Rate

May 20215.5%

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U.S.

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Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics

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Figure 4Mortgage Interest Rates

Weekly Rates, Not Seasonally Adjusted

30-Yr Fixed 15-Yr Fixed 5/1-Yr AdjSource: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

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Figure 3Consumer Confidence

South Atlantic Region

Source: The Conference Board

Present Situation

Expectations

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Housing Market Overview

It was a very busy spring in the PWAR housing market. Sales activity is surging and home prices are rising throughout the footprint, which drove up the sold dollar volume in the region significantly. Homes are selling faster than last year and the inventory of active listings increased slightly from a year ago.

Sales

There were 3,029 sales across the PWAR footprint in the second quarter of 2021, which is 832 more sales than a year ago, representing a 38% surge. Sales activity increased all three months of the quarter (April through June) compared to last year. While the large spike in sales activity this quarter is somewhat attributable to the market slowdown last spring, sales this quarter are also outpacing pre-pandemic levels; up 13% from the second quarter of 2019. Statewide, the number of home sales in the second quarter was up 30% compared to last year and is 16% higher than second quarter 2019 sales totals.

2,8052,622 2,678

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Figure 5Second Quarter Home Sales, PWAR

2017-2021

-7% +38%+2%-18%

Source: Virginia REALTORS®, data accessed July 15, 2021

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Manassas: There were 206 sales in Manassas in the second quarter, 61 more sales than last year, which is a 42% surge. It is not surprising that sales activity this quarter far exceeds last year, when the market slowed down with the onset of the pandemic. Sales activity in the city’s housing market is now slightly above pre-pandemic levels; there were 3% more sales than the second quarter of 2019.

Manassas Park: There were 73 sales in Manassas Park during the second quarter, which is 18% more sales than last year, an influx of 11 sales. Sales activity this quarter in the city also outpaced the second quarter of 2019 by 6%.

Prince William County: There were 2,750 sales in Prince William County during the second quarter, a 38% increase from a year ago, which is 760 more sales. Similar to other local markets, the large spike in sales activity this quarter compared to last year is partly due to the market slowdown that occurred at the beginning of the pandemic last spring. Sales in the county were also higher than pre-pandemic levels, rising 14% above sales totals from the second quarter of 2019.

Local Snapshot – Total Home Sales

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Jurisdiction 2020 - Q2 2021 - Q2 % Change

Manassas 145 206 42%

Manassas Park 62 73 18%

Prince William County 1,990 2,750 38%


Figure 6 Change in Sales by Jurisdiction

PWAR Second Quarter 2020 to Second Quarter 2021

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Sales Prices

Home prices in the PWAR region continue to rise. The second quarter median sales price in the area was $470,000, which is 15% higher than last year, a gain of $60,000. Upward pressure on prices driven by low inventory and active buyers has been consistent in the PWAR market for many years. The second quarter median sales price is now $135,000 higher than it was at this time five years ago. In the second quarter, the median sales price statewide was $365,000, up 16% compared to a year ago.

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2017 - Q2 2018 - Q2 2019 - Q2 2020 - Q2 2021 - Q2

Figure 7Second Quarter Median Sales Price, PWAR

2017-2021

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Manassas: Home prices continue to rise in Manassas. The second quarter median sales price in the city was $372,000, an 11% jump from last year, which is an increase of $36,549.

Manassas Park: At $388,000, the second quarter median sales price in Manassas Park rose 16% from last year, which is a gain of $53,000. The median sales price in the city has increased for nine straight quarters compared to last year.

Prince William County: The second quarter median sales price in Prince William County was $481,327 which is $65,577 higher than it was at this time last year, representing a 16% increase. This is the largest median price gain the county has had in more than five years.

Local Snapshot – Median Sales Price

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Jurisdiction 2020 - Q2 2021 - Q2 % Change

Manassas $335,451 $372,000 11%

Manassas Park $335,000 $388,000 16%

Prince William County $415,750 $481,327 16%


Figure 8 Change in Median Sales Price by Jurisdiction

PWAR Second Quarter 2020 to Second Quarter 2021

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Sold Volume

Climbing prices and surging sales activity pushed up the sold dollar volume significantly this quarter in the PWAR housing market. There was approximately $1.5 billion of sold volume across the PWAR footprint during the second quarter, a 61% jump from last year, which is an additional $584.3 million of sold volume. The sold volume has increased in the region’s housing market nine of the last 10 quarters. The influx of sold volume this quarter is partially due to the slowdown last spring; however, the sold volume is also 41% above pre-pandemic levels from the second quarter of 2019.

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Figure 9Second Quarter Sold Dollar Volume (Millions), PWAR

2017-2021

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Manassas: Rising prices and the influx of sales led to a huge increase in the sold dollar volume this quarter in Manassas. There was about $81.6 million of sold volume in the city during the second quarter, 58% more volume than a year ago, which is an additional $30 million.

Manassas Park: There was about $29.9 million of sold volume in Manassas Park during the second quarter, rising up 40% from a year ago, which is an increase of about $8.5 million.

Prince William County: There was approximately $1.4 billion of sold volume in Prince William County during the second quarter, a 62% surge from last year, which is an influx of about $545.7 million. While the large spike this quarter is partially due to the slowdown last spring, the sold volume is also 43% above pre-pandemic levels in the second quarter of 2019.

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Figure 10Second Quarter Sold Dollar Volume, PWAR Jurisdictions

2020 and 2021

2021 - Q22020 - Q2

Local Snapshot – Sold Dollar Volume


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Days on Market

Homes in the PWAR market continue to sell faster than last year. Homes that sold in the second quarter in the region were on the market a week on average (7 days), which is 10 days faster than a year ago. The shrinking supply of homes listed for sale in the area is causing more competition among active buyers in the market, which is causing homes to sell faster, a trend that has been consistent over the past five years in the region. Statewide, homes sold in an average of 22 days in the second quarter, down from 40 days a year ago.

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Figure 11Second Quarter Average Days on Market, PWAR

2017-2021


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Manassas: Homes continue to sell faster in the Manassas market. At 7 days, the average days on market in the city during the second quarter was 10 days faster than last year.

Manassas Park: It took about a week on average to sell a home in Manassas Park during the second quarter (8 days), which is about two weeks faster than last year (-12 days). Homes have been selling faster in the city for three straight quarters.

Prince William County: Homes that sold in Prince William County during the second quarter were on the market one week on average (7 days), which is about 10 days faster than this time last year.

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Figure 12Second Quarter Average Days on Market, PWAR Jurisdictions

2020 and 2021

2021 - Q2

2020 - Q2

Local Snapshot – Average Days on Market


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Inventory

Supply in the PWAR housing market continues to be tight; however, there was a small inventory expansion this quarter. There were just 469 active listings in the PWAR footprint at the end of the second quarter, eight more listings than last year, which is a 2% increase. This is the first year-over-year inventory increase in the region in more than two years. The low supply of homes available in the area continues to be a major factor for both buyers and sellers. Many potential buyers, particularly first-time homebuyers, are having trouble competing with other buyers due to the rapid price increases and bidding wars. In addition, would-be sellers also are impacted because there are limited options of homes to move into after they sell, which is causing many to remain in their current homes. These trends are occurring both locally and all throughout the commonwealth. At the end of the second quarter, there was a total of 19,346 active listings on the market statewide, down 18% from a year ago.

There was just a half a month of supply at the end of the second quarter in the PWAR area, down from 0.7 months of supply a year ago. The months of supply metric is calculated by taking the average monthly sales over the preceding 12-month period and dividing it by the inventory of active listings.

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Figure 13End of Second Quarter Months Supply, PWAR

2017-2021


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Manassas: At the end of the second quarter there were 39 active listings on the market in Manassas, which is three fewer listings than last year, a 7% drop.

Manassas Park: There were just 12 active listings on the market in Manassas Park at the end of the second quarter, two more listings than a year ago, representing a 20% increase. This is the first inventory expansion the city’s housing market has had since the summer of 2019.

Prince William County: At the end of the second quarter there were 418 active listings in Prince William County, inching up 2% from last year, which is nine additional listings. While the supply remains tight, this is the first inventory increase in the county’s housing market in over two years.

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Figure 14End of Second Quarter Active Listings, PWAR Jurisdictions

2020 and 2021

2021 - Q2

2020 - Q2

Local Snapshot – Active Listings


Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2018

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