“Four Disruptive Trends for the Next Decade”

Briefing Organized by the Australia Post

Canberra, Australia

August 11, 2015

Dr. Larry Smarr

Director, California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology

Harry E. Gruber Professor,

Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering

Jacobs School of Engineering, UCSD

http://lsmarr.calit2.net

If You Are Planning On a Ten Year HorizonIt Helps to See What Unexpected Change Can Happen In a Decade…

One Decade

www.benphoster.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Facebook-User-Growth-Chart.png

From One Million to One Billion UsersIn Less Than 8 Years!

www.thesocialnetwork-movie.com

Australia’s Citizens Now Depend on IT Companies That Were Born Only Ten Years Ago

www.socialmedianews.com.au/social-media-statistics-australia-june-2015/

50% of Australian Population

The Scale of the Web Today:“You Know What’s Cool?-a Billion” *

• Facebook– 1.5 Billion Active Users

• YouTube– 4 Billion Video Views Each Day

• Google– Over One Billion Searches Every Day

• Apple– 25 Billion Apps Downloaded Per Year

• Smartphones– 2 Billion Users

* From the Movie The Social Network (2010)

The Global Planetary ComputerPowers These Disruptions

The Computing Power to Make a Single Google SearchIs More Than Was Used In Space & On Earth

For the 11 Year, 17 Flight Apollo Program!

http://insidesearch.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-power-of-apollo-missions-in-single.html

Four Disruptive Trends for the Next Decade

• Distributed Software Systems are Driving Disintermediation

• Networked Virtual Reality

• Climate Change and Adaptive Infrastructure

• Brain-Inspired Computing

Distributed Software Systems are Driving Disintermediation

Software Frameworks Are Emergingto Disrupt Prior Physical-Based Industries

Airbnb’s Market Capis Over Twice That of Hyatt

The company was launched in 2008, and has a listing of around 1.4 million various houses, apartments, rooms, and exotic locations to rent. Since then, more than 35 million travellers have availed its service. The company’s operations span around 34,000 cities

Next Stage in Uber Move to Driverless Cars

Traffic Control for Drone Air Delivery is Under Development by NASA, Amazon, & Google

Networked Virtual Reality

Over Fifty Years Ago, Asimov Described a World of Remote Viewing

A policeman from Earth, where the population all lives underground in close quarters, is called in to investigate a murder on a distant world. This world is populated by very few humans, rarely if ever, coming into physical proximity of each other. Instead the people "View" each other with trimensional “holographic” images.

1956

Caterpillar / NCSA: Distributed Virtual Reality for Global-Scale Collaborative Prototyping

Real Time Linked Virtual Reality and Audio-Video Between NCSA, Peoria, Houston, and Germany

www.sv.vt.edu/future/vt-cave/apps/CatDistVR/DVR.html

1996

Collaboration Between EVL’s CAVE2 and Calit2’s VROOM Over 10Gb Wavelength

EVL

Calit2

Source: NTT Sponsored ON*VECTOR Workshop at Calit2 March 6, 2013

Optical Fibers Link Australian and US Big Data Researchers

Next Step: Use AARnet/PRP to Set Up Planetary-Scale Shared Virtual Worlds

Digital Arena, UTS Sydney

CAVE2, Monash U, Melbourne

CAVE2, EVL, Chicago

Why Would a Social Network CompanyBuy a Consumer Virtual Reality Company?

One Year Later…

"We're working on VR because I think it's the next major

computing and communication platform after phones,“

-Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook CEOJuly 1, 2015

Climate Change and Adaptive Infrastructure

Rapid Increase in the Greenhouse Gas CO2

Since Industrial Era Began

Little Ice Age

Medieval Warm Period

388 ppm in 2010

June 2015CO2 402.8

Atmospheric CO2 Levels for Last 800,000 Yearsand Several Projections for the 21st Century

Source: U.S. Global Change Research

Program Report (2009)

2100 No Emission Controls--MIT Study

2100 Shell Blueprints Scenario

2100 Post-Copenhagen Agreements-MIT Model

Graph from: www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/download-the-report

Human Induced Sea Level Rise Will Continue for Centuries

Source: The Copenhagen Diagnosis, Allison, et al. (2009)Meters of Sea Level

Rise

5

3

10.2 Meter Rise

1 Meter will Submerge Over 2 Million sq. km of Land Where ~150 Million People Live, Mostly in Asia

If Greenland Melts, Sea Level Rises 6 metersIf Antarctica Melts, Sea Level Rises 60 meters Further

66Future PotentialSea Level Rise

If Greenland and Antarctica Melt

6

http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/quickfacts/icesheets.html

The Disruptive Transition to Intelligent, Secure, Low Carbon, and Climate Adaptive Infrastructure

• The First Wave: – Infrastructure Will Gradually Become “Intelligent”

• The Second Wave: – From High to Low Carbon Emissions

• The Third Wave: – Climate Change is Now Occurring on a Time Scale

Commensurate With the Lifetime of Infrastructure

Buildings Are Becoming “Internets of Things”Key to Reducing 40% of U.S. CO2 Emissions

• Microsoft Collects 500M Data Points/Day from its Campus• Estimated to Become ~$200B/Year Industry by 2016

Source: Jim Young Realcomm

A Critical Component of Adding Intelligence to Infrastructure is Keeping it Secure

An American Business Plan for Moving to a Low Carbon Economy

www.americanenergyinnovation.org

The Transition to Climate Adaptive Infrastructure: “Rising Currents” Exhibit at Museum of Modern Art

New York City's Harbor & Coastline -- How it Could be Restructured to Deal with

the Rising Sea Level

www.moma.org/explore/inside_out/category/rising-currents#description

New Ways to Occupy the Harbor With Adaptive “Soft” Infrastructures

Brain-Inspired Computing

Reverse Engineering of the Brain:Large Scale Microscopy of Mammal Brains Reveals Complex Connectivity

NeuronCell Bodies

Neuronal DendriticOverlap Region

Source: Rat Cerebellum Image, Mark Ellisman, UCSD

Using Nanotechnology to Read Out the Living BrainIs Accelerating Under the Federal Brain Initiative

www.whitehouse.gov/infographics/brain-initiative

The March to the Exascale Supercomputer:As Fast as One Billion Smartphones

The Exascale Power Conundrum:Why We Have to Turn to Brain-Inspired Computers

• Straightforward Extrapolation Results in a Real Time Human Brain Scale Simulation at 1–10 Exaflop/s with 4 PB of Memory

• A Digital Computer with this Performance Might be Available in 2022–2024 with a Power Consumption of >20–30 MW

• The Human Brain Runs on 20 W

• Our Brain is a Million Times More Power Efficient!

Horst Simon, Deputy Director, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Realtime Simulation of Human Brain Possible Within the Next Ten Years With Exascale Supercomputer

Horst Simon, Deputy Director, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s

National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center

Fastest Supercomputer

Trend LineTianhe-2

Massive Public Private Partnership to Accelerate Brain-Inspired Computers

Jan/Feb 2014

Over $100 Million

Brain-Inspired ProcessorsAre The Start of the non-von Neumann Architecture Era

“On the drawing board are collections of 64, 256, 1024, and 4096 chips.

‘It’s only limited by money, not imagination,’ Modha says.”

Source: Dr. Dharmendra ModhaFounding Director, IBM Cognitive Computing Group

Contextual Robots With Neuromorphic Processors That Can See and Learn Will Tie Into the Planetary Computer

April 2014

Cognitive ComputingIs Beginning to Assist Medical Professionals

Massive Amounts of Data Combined With Planetary-Scale Computing Leads to Deep Learning

April 2013

A New Generation of Human Body SensorsWill Provide Continuous Readouts

Startup MC10 Working With UIUCUC San Diego

A Vision for Healthcare in the Coming Decades

Using this data, the planetary computer will be able to build a computational model of your body

and compare your sensor stream with millions of others. Besides providing early detection of internal changes

that could lead to disease, cloud-powered voice-recognition wellness coaches could provide

continual personalized support on lifestyle choices, potentially staving off disease

and making health care affordable for everyone.

ESSAYAn Evolution Toward a Programmable UniverseBy LARRY SMARRPublished: December 5, 2011

The Defining Issue in IT for the Coming Decades

May 5, 2015August 25, 2015

This Next Decade’s Computing TransitionWill Not Be Just About Technology

"Those disposed to dismiss an 'AI takeover' as science fiction may think again after reading this original and well-argued book." —Martin Rees, Past President, Royal Society

If our own extinction is a likely, or even

possible, outcome of our technological

development, shouldn't we proceed with great

caution? – Bill Joy

Success in creating AI would be the biggest event in human history. Unfortunately, it might also be the last, unless we learn how to avoid the risks. – Steven Hawking

Should We Give Robots Autonomy?

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