Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... ·...
Transcript of Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... ·...
![Page 1: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Rethinking how we talk about energy and climate
Atte Harjanne2.7.2019
![Page 2: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Overview
1. The climate challenge2. How we talk about energy today3. How we should talk about energy4. Finnish perspectives on nuclear debate5. Conclusions
![Page 3: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
1. The climate challenge
![Page 4: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
IPCC SR15 in a nutshell
• Global warming of 2 degrees is already quite bad compared to 1.5 degrees.
• Warming can maybe be limited to 1.5 degrees if energy production and land-use are transformed in an unprecedentedscale.
![Page 5: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
CO2 emissions [Mt]
Sources: IIASA IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer, IIASA RCP Database v. 2.0.5. The figure combines selected scenario data and is meant to represent the nature of the change, not adetailed path.
Scale of the challenge
![Page 6: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Sources: IIASA IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer, IIASA RCP Database v. 2.0.5. The figure combines selected scenario data and is meant to represent the nature of the change, not adetailed path. Population data: UN.
Scale of the challenge
![Page 7: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Sources: IIASA IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer, IIASA RCP Database v. 2.0.5. The figure combines selected scenario data and is meant to represent the nature of the change, not adetailed path. Population data: UN.
Scale of the challenge
![Page 8: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Climate change is not the only challenge
![Page 9: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Source: Accelerated modern human–induced species losses: Entering the sixth mass extinction BY GERARDO CEBALLOS, PAUL R. EHRLICH, ANTHONY D. BARNOSKY, ANDRÉS GARCÍA, ROBERT M. PRINGLE, TODD M. PALMER SCIENCE ADVANCES19 JUN 2015 : E1400253
Climate change is not the only challenge
Biodiversity
![Page 10: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Climate change is not the only challenge
Source: World Energy Outlook 2018
Poverty
![Page 11: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Climate change is not the only challenge
Source: Our World in DAta
Linear economy
![Page 12: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Loss of biodiversity
Climate change
Global poverty
Growing resource use
Sufficient supply of electricity and heat with low emissions and low environmental impact.
Energy is the key to sustainable development
![Page 13: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
2. How we talk about energy today
![Page 14: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
What’s wrong?
1. Focus on renewables, not emissions
2. Problematic mental models
3. Limited market perspective
4. Nuclear taboo
![Page 15: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Issues with the concept of RE
- Wind, solar, geothermal etc. are excellent sources of energy, but ...
1) Renewable does not mean sustanaible2) The concept is inconsistent3) RE emphasis has brought mixed policy results4) RE enables problematic bait-and-switch
See:Harjanne, A. & Korhonen J.M. (2019), Abandoning the concept of renewable energy, Energy Policy, Vol. 127, pp. 330-340. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.12.029
![Page 16: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Bioenergy: Land use intensity, competition withnature conservation and food production Hydro: Fish populations, GHG emissions,
population displacement Geothermal: Rate of replenishmentWind & solar: Mineral use, need for storages
and/or overbuilding, lower service level For all: Scalability! Decentralized production does not necessary
benefit the poor
Everything has consequences
![Page 17: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Renewable energy covers very differentphysical processesEnergy densities vary by orders of magnitudeCapacity factor and its determinants are
diverse
Problematic concept for describing orcomparing energy systems
Apples and oranges
![Page 18: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Harjanne, A. & Korhonen J.M. (2019), Abandoning the concept of renewable energy, Energy Policy, Vol. 127, pp. 330-340. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.12.029
![Page 19: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Share of renewable energy is not a particularly good measure for energy policyin any meaningful way
Renewable energy focused policies do notnecessarily reduce emissions effectively
Mixed results
![Page 20: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Energy trilemma index
![Page 21: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Carbon intensity: 52 gLow-carbon: 93 %Renewable: 25 %
Carbon intensity: 270 gLow-carbon: 68 %Renewable: 53 %
Source: Electricitymap 27.6.2019 11:45
Some examples
Carbon intensity: 34 gLow-carbon: 95 %Renewable: 58 %
Carbon intensity: 97 gLow-carbon: 90 %Renewable: 50 %
![Page 22: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
The ambiguity and positive image of renewable energy enable misguidingcommunication and policies Increasing variable production can be a
lucrative opportunity to natural gas businessesAmbitious renewable energy plans can
actually be biomass and waste combustionplansOur visual culture is misguiding
Things are not always whatthey seem to be
![Page 23: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Digitalization has enabled new kind of scalabilityMoore’s law has held over 50 yearsSolar and wind have showed exponential
growth and development curvesBut this is not a general rule in
technological progress.
(Vaclav Smil: ”Moore’s curse”)
Problematic mental models
![Page 24: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Biased risk perceptions
Favorable connotations: Small New Decentralized Renewable Local ... Based on what?
Problematic mental models
![Page 25: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Limited market perspective
![Page 26: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Limited market perspective
Figure source: NEA (2012b), Nuclear Energy and Renewables: System Effects in Low-carbon Electricity Systems,Figure 4.1, p. 104, Table 4.8, p. 136, OECD, Paris, www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/pubs/2012/7056-system-effects.pdf.
Most of the discussion is about these
Very few if any policies or market incentives are driving system level deep decarbonization(not only electricity!)
![Page 27: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Nuclear faces not only popular opposition but also wall of silence Examples:
- European Commission - A Clean Planet for all A European strategic long-term vision for a prosperous, modern, competitive and climate neutral economy (2018). 25 pages, mentions:
- ”nuclear” – 3 times- ”renewable” – 35 times
- Finnish Government report on the National Energy and Climate Strategy for 2030 (2016). 119 pages, mentions:
- ”nuclear” – 10 times- ”renewable” – 134 times
Nuclear taboo
![Page 28: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
3. How we should talk about energy
![Page 29: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
• Realize the scale and time scale of the challenge
• System level policy making and assessment
• Focus on actual emissions & environmental impacts
• Not a competition between renewables and nuclear, but a battle against climate disaster
The pespective we need
![Page 30: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
ne Mostly combustion free Mostly combustion based
Low carbon
1. Solar, wind, hydro, wave, tidal, geothermal, nuclear and
energy systems based on these + low-carbon
energy storage methods
2. Biomass (selected sources, long-term)
Too much carbon
3. Energy systems that have nominally high shares of low carbon generation but are
backed up by highcarbon fuels such as fossil
methane or large-scale biomass
4. Fossil fuels, biomass (non-optimal sources,
short-term)
”Carbon-combustion quadrant”
Harjanne, A. & Korhonen J.M. (2019), Abandoning the concept of renewable energy, Energy Policy, Vol. 127, pp. 330-340. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.12.029
![Page 31: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Photo: Marco Verch [https://foto.wuestenigel.com/toolbox-on-a-white-background/?utm_source=39255740861&utm_campaign=FlickrDescription&utm_medium=link] CC BY 2.0
![Page 32: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
• Recall the big picture and grand challenges
• System level perspective• Be open about challenges, but don’t
focus on risks and safety• Do the math and use it• Intervene ignorance• Embrace innovations and new ideas
(i.e. SMRs)
How to keep nuclear in the game
![Page 33: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
4. Finnish perspectives on nuclear debate
![Page 34: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Olkiluoto 3 and Hanhikivi 1Almost 20 TWh worth of wind power in
preparationNational coal ban starting from 1.5.2029Major debate on sustainable forest logging
levelsSMRs on the rise: First in public debate, now
companies assessing as wellNew government programme: Continuing
licences of current plants ok.
Political landscape in Finland
![Page 35: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Open to nuclear R&D in the newestpolitical programmeGreen Youth published an even more
positive statementSocially just and effective climate policy
as the priority
Greens supporting nuclear?
![Page 36: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Public perceptions 1/2
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Bio
Nuclear
Nat. gas
Peat
Export electricity
Oil
Coal
Source: Finnish Energy 2019
![Page 37: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Public perceptions 2/2Increased Current level Can’t say Decreased
Source: Finnish Energy 2019
Greens
True Finns
National Coalition party
![Page 38: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Public perceptions on SMRs
Source: Finnish Energy 2019
![Page 39: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
5. Conclusions
![Page 40: Foro nuclear harjanne v2 - CEIDEN › wp-content › uploads › 2019 › 07 › ponencias... · 2019-07-04 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Foro_nuclear_harjanne_v2 Author: Tamara Created](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022070822/5f24d8862f82cc52805b85e2/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Conclusions
• We are facing a complex global challenge of an immense scale
• We need massive investments in all kinds of clean energy – including new nuclear power
• Much of today’s energy debate forgets this big picture and is based on flawed assumptions or misconceptions
• We need more system level perspective – and to keep all the tools in the toolbox