8/4/2019 Forex Market Insight 24 August 2011

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Market Insights 24 August 2011

Risk appetite strengthens on China data, Jackson Hole hopes; financial stocks see sharp reversalGold sees largest fall in a year; drops close to US$100 in 24 hours

FX market reflects improvement in risk as AUD, EUR and GBP all improveUSD/JPY and USD/CHF both post gains as safety trade easesDow ends more than 322 points higher despite weak housing and manufacturing dataUS economic data, including durable goods, and German Ifo survey in focus tonight

Headlines

AUD/USD

XAU/USD

Resistance

1.0540

Support

1.0480Market Sentiment

Bullish

he Aussie broke above 1.0480 overnight and that sets up a move to 1.0600. The overnight strength in equities has alsoeen a positive for the AUD/USD. Any pullback to 1.0480 is likely to be seen as buyable. A break above 1.0600 will be seens a major continuation of the long term bull market.

old finally paused overnight, pulling back almost $100, but traders will be looking to use this pullback as an opportunity toke new longs. This selldown came as risk appetite improved and was reflected in gains in the USD/CHF and USD/JPY. Ate moment, this pullback appears fairly natural, with gold finding support near the recent swing high at 1815. A move backtest the highs seems likely.

Resistance1910

Support

1825Market Sentiment

Bullish

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EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/JPY

he USD/JPY continues to trade in the broad range between 76.30 on the downside and 77.20 on the upside. Traders willontinue to play the range until we see a decisive break in either direction. Selling at 77.00/20 is likely to remain the favouredrategy.

o real change on the GBP/USD with the pair still above the all-important 1.6450 level. The pair has formed a clear rangeetween 1.6450 and 1.6600. While we hold above 1.6450, the market will remain focused on the long side.

he Euro managed moderate gains overnight as it struggled to break above 1.4500. Traders will focus on the downside untile see a clear break of 1.4500, a move that seems increasingly likely.

Resistance

1.4500

Support

1.4350Market Sentiment

Bearish (while below 1.4500)

Resistance

1.6620

Support

1.6450Market Sentiment

Bullish

Resistance

77.00/20

Support

76.30Market Sentiment

Bearish

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SILVER

USD/CHF

GBP/JPY

The GBP/JPY continues to be unable to break above 127.00 and traders will be looking for new shorts around that level. Whilehe pair is dominated by the downtrend, a move bullish pattern is being produced below 127.00 and a break above that level

will be bullish.

The USD/CHF trade continues to be dominated by the neutral symmetrical triangle and the market will be focused on thekely break from this pattern. The reversal in gold, silver and the yen could signal part of an overall reduction in the fear

rade; but for the moment, well continue to follow the long term downtrend. A break above 79.40 will be bullish.

lver suffered from the same selldown as we saw in gold overnight, and this was also reflected in the gains seen in theSD/JPY and USD/CHF. However, silver broke below an important level of support at 42.00 and this could be a sign foraution. That said, the market will remain on the bullish side for now.

Resistance

44.00

Support

41.50Market Sentiment

Bullish

Resistance

79.40

Support

78.40Market Sentiment

Neutral

Resistance

127.00

Support

126.00Market Sentiment

Bearish

8/4/2019 Forex Market Insight 24 August 2011

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AUD/JPY

OIL

Economic Calendar

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F/Cast Last F/Cast Last

NZD: Trade Balance -124m 230m EUR: German Ifo 111.2 112.9 JPY: CSPI -0.4% -0.7% EUR: Industrial New Orders 0.6% 3.6% AUD: CB Leading -0.1% USD: Core Durable Goods -0.3% 0.4% AUD; Construction Work 1.1% 0.7% USD: Crude Oil Inventories 0.7m 4.2m

il has tried to push higher overnight, but the gains were capped at 86.40. Traders will be waiting for a move above 86.40efore taking new longs, while shorts around 86.20 provide good risk/return.

s per our most recent reviews, the AUD/JPY is in a clear neutral pattern and needs a break above 81.20 to be bullish or areak below 79.00 to become bearish.

Resistance

86.40Support

80.00Market Sentiment

Neutral

Resistance

81.20Support

79.00Market Sentiment

Neutral