Forests, water & research in the Sierra Nevada
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Forests, water & research in the Sierra Nevada
Roger Bales,Sierra Nevada
Research Institute, UC Merced
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CZO
N-S transect of research catchments
MODIS image
Main CZO site
6001200180024003000
Elev., m
San Joaquin Experimental
Range400 m1300 ft
Shorthair Creek
2700 m8900 ft
CZO P301
2000 m6600 ft
Soaproot Saddle1100 m3600 ft
E-W transect of flux towers
Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory
Sierra Nevada watershed research infrastructure
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infiltration
evapotranspiration
snowmelt
runoff
sublimation
ground & surface water exchange
precipitation
Mountain hydrology – fluxes
Reservoirs: Snowpack storageSoil-water storage
How will this landscape & the hydrologic processes connecting it alter w/ climate warming & land-use/landcover change?
Motivating questions
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infiltration
evapotranspiration
snowmelt
runoff
sublimation
ground & surface water exchange
precipitation
Mountain hydrology – fluxes
Reservoirs: Snowpack storageSoil-water storage
Myth:
We can, with a high degree of skill, estimate or predict the magnitude of these quantities
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infiltration
evapotranspiration
snowmelt
runoff
sublimation
ground & surface water exchange
precipitation
Mountain hydrology – fluxes My biases:Improved predictions
require better process understanding
The basis for process understanding is new measurements
Processes are coupled & best studied together
Reservoirs: Snowpack storageSoil-water storage
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Basic water balancePrecipitation = Evapotranspiration + Runoff
= +
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0.1 increase per 350 m (1150 ft)
Decreasing temperatureIncreasing snow fractionDecreasing vegetationCoarser soils
3oC
6000’ 8000’7000’
5oF 50% more runoff in snow dominated vs. mixed rain-snow catchments
Implication for 2oC warmer climate:Reduce runoff by 10-40% in mixed conifer forest (assuming ecosystems adapt)
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Elevation (m)
0 1000 2000 3000
ET
(mm
yr-1
)
300
400
500
600
700
800
GP
P (gC
m-2 yr -1)
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Mean ET Tower-based ET (2009-11)Mean GPP
2010
2010
2010
2011
20112011
2011
2009
mm in
800 32
700 28
600 24
500 20
400 16
300 12
0 1000/ 2000/ 3000/ 3300 6600 10000
Elevation, m/ft
Goulden et al., submitted
Annual evapotranspiration
– Highest current evapotranspiration in rain to rain-snow transition region of mixed conifer forest – year-round growth
– Lower elevation is water limited– Higher elevation is cold limited
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Sierra Nevada precipitation & snow water equivalent (SWE) – climatological estimate?
in>80
705035251510
in
>28
24
16
8
3
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Most snowmelt comes from
elevations above most measurement of precipitation or
snowpack
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Mountain water cycle & climate warmingLand surface temperatures
5-yr average Departure from 1901-2000 mean
Warming by 2–6oC (4–11oF) drives significant changes:
– rain-vs-snow storms *– snowpack amounts *– snowmelt timing *– flood risk– streamflow timing *– low baseflows– growing seasons *– recharge?– drier soil in summer
Precipitation changes uncertain
Already observed (*)
2
1
0
-2
-1
oF
oF15
11
7
4
0
-4
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Kings basin snowmelt w/ climate warming
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Making a water-secure world – the three I’s
Better & more-accessible
INFORMATION
INFRASTRUCTURE to store, transport
& treat water
Stronger & more-adaptable
INSTITUTIONS
Water security: the reliable availability of an acceptable quantity & quality of water for health, livelihoods & production, coupled w/ an acceptable level of water-related risks
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Ecosystem services
Making a water-secure world – the three I’s
Better & more-accessible
INFORMATION
INFRASTRUCTURE to store, transport
& treat water
Stronger & more-adaptable
INSTITUTIONS
Water is fundamental to sustainable ecosystem services. Water management therefore translates into managing ecosystem services, and must be a fundamental goal of virtually all such efforts.
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lidar
A new generation of integrated measurements
eddy correlation
satellite snowcover
embedded sensor
networks
isotopes & ions
sap flow
low-cost sensors
sediment
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Basin-wide deployment of hydrologic instrument clusters – American R. basin
Strategically place low-cost sensors to get spatial estimates of snowcover, soil moisture & other water-balance components
Network & integrate these sensors into a single spatial instrument for water-balance measurements.
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Building the knowledge base to enhance forest & water management