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Inter-American Development Bank Nr. 1
Forest Investment Attractiveness Index: Usefulness for Sector Management
Dr. José Rente NascimentoInter-American Development Bank
Side event to the24th Session of the Latin American and Caribbean Forestry Commission
26th June 2006, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
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Inter-American Development Bank # 2
Overview
III- Results– Sub Indices– Supra, Inter, – Intra
I- IDB in one minute
IV- PROMECIF and IAIF Evolution
II- IAIF– Objectives– Usefulness– Model
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Inter-American Development Bank # 3
IInter-American
DevelopmentBank
I- IDB
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Inter-American Development Bank # 4
Basic Facts: the IDB Group
IDB Group: IDB (1959); IIC (1989); MIF (1992); and PRI (1994)Oldest and largest regional multilateral development bank Largest source of development finance for Latin America– Approved over $ 118 billion in loans– Total cost of projects: $281 billion
46 Member countries- 26 Borrowing (50 % of the shares)
I- IDB
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Inter-American Development Bank # 5
II
IAIF
II- IAIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 6
IAIF - Objectives
General objective: To measure the business climate for investments in the sustainable forest business.
The IAIF allows the systematic, periodic, quantitative and more rigorous analyses of the factors that affect the success of forest direct investment and business decision-making.
II- IAIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 7
IAIF principal clients
• International investors and entrepreneurs• Domestic investors and entrepreneurs• Governments (national, regional or local)• National and international NGOs• Bilateral and multilateral donors
II- IAIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 8
The IAIF is useful for
• representing the forest business climate as a single number per nation
• initial screening BY INVESTORS of countries with best investment climate for sustainable forest businesses
• facilitating a more precise and constructive dialogue about forest business climate issues among stakeholders
II- IAIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 9
The IAIF is useful for
• setting priorities among policy areas by governments interested in improving their forest business climate
• monitoring the success of policy interventions on specific indicators
• identifying issues where national performance is above or below expectations or aspirations
II- IAIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 10
The IAIF is useful for
• serving as a working framework to encourage research, debate, dialogue, and learning.
• clarifying policy and investment tradeoffs• designing intervention strategies and better define
goals, programs, and policies
II- IAIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 11
The IAIF allows comparisons of countries, regions, years, indicators,
sub-indexes, such as
Among nations in a given yearCountry’s performance trends over timeCountry’s performance in relation to neighbors or sub region for given year Subindex performance and trends
II- IAIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 12
The IAIF allows analysis of:
Measured(real)
Measured(real)
Potential(potential maximum)Potential(potential maximum)
Differential (potential improvement)Differential (potential improvement)
Contribution to IAIF(weighted)Contribution to IAIF(weighted)
SimulationsSimulations
II- IAIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 13
IAIF – Basic hypothesis
II- IAIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 14
Methodology – 3 Sub indexes
II- IAIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 15
Sub index – SUPRA sectorial factors
II- IAIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 16
Sub index – INTER sectorial factors
II- IAIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 17
Sub index – INTRA sectorial factors
II- IAIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 18
Methodology 20 indicators; >80 variables
II- IAIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 19
IAIF and Sustainability
II- IAIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 20
Sources of information
• Secondary data and indexes (World Bank, FAO, World Economic Forum, etc.)
• Primary information through surveys– Agriculture policies– Planting and harvesting restrictions– Adverse actions– Favorable supports
II- IAIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 21
III
IAIF Results
2002
III- Results
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Inter-American Development Bank # 22
IAIF Real (measured) - 2002
III- Results
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Inter-American Development Bank # 23
Real – Potential - Differential
III- Results
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Inter-American Development Bank # 24
IAIF – Real for Best Performers
40
40
41
44
44
53
60
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Colombia
Mexico
Costa Rica
Uruguay
Argentina
Chile
Brasil
III- Results
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Inter-American Development Bank # 25
IAIF – Highest Potential
99
86
81
79
78
78
75
Brasil
Mexico
Colombia
Argentina
Venezuela
Peru
Bolivia
III- Results
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Inter-American Development Bank # 26
Possible improvement over current levels (%)
39
60
66
69
81
101
115
Chile
Uruguay
Brasil
Costa Rica
Argentina
Colombia
México
III- Results
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Inter-American Development Bank # 27
SubIndex SUPRA
66
69
77
50
50
76
51
0 20 40 60 80 100
Colombia
Mexico
Costa Rica
Uruguay
Argentina
Chile
Brasil
III- Results
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Inter-American Development Bank # 28
SubIndex INTER
50
51
51
57
46
63
46
0 20 40 60 80
Colombia
Mexico
Costa Rica
Uruguay
Argentina
Chile
Brasil
III- Results
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Inter-American Development Bank # 29
Sub Index INTRA
29
27
27
36
41
42
69
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Colombia
Mexico
Costa Rica
Uruguay
Argentina
Chile
Brasil
III- Results
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Inter-American Development Bank # 30
INTER vs INTRA
0 20 40 60 80
Colombia
Mexico
Costa Rica
Uruguay
Argentina
Chile
Brasil
INTRAINTER
III- Results
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Inter-American Development Bank # 31
IAIF – Sub Indexes
0 20 40 60 80 100
Colombia
Mexico
Costa Rica
Uruguay
Argentina
Chile
Brasil
IAIFINTRAINTERSUPRA
III- Results
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Inter-American Development Bank # 32
INTER-Sector Indicators – Sample
0 25 50 75 100
Ec. Infrast.
Labour
Prop. Rig.ArgentinaBrasil ChileColombiaCosta RicaMéxicoUruguay
III- Results
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Inter-American Development Bank # 33
INTRA-Sector Indicators
0 20 40 60 80 100
For. Res
FVL
Dom. Market ArgentinaBrasil ChileColombiaCosta RicaMéxicoUruguay
III- Results
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Inter-American Development Bank # 34
Perception Indicators
0 20 40 60 80 100
Uruguay
México
Costa Rica
Colombia
Chile
Brasil
Argentina
Ag. PoliciesRestrictionsAdverseSupportive
III- Results
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Inter-American Development Bank # 35
IV
PROMECIF and
IAIF Evolution
IV- PROMECIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 36
What is PROMECIF?
Proceso de Mejoría del Clima de Negocios para Inversiones en el Sector Forestal.
Process to Improve the Business Climate for Forest Investments.
Process that uses IAIF’s methodology as a basis for improving the climate for investments in sustainable forest businesses.
IV- PROMECIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 37
IAIF Results Supply
Data for comparison among countries. Understanding of factors that affect positively and negatively the attractiveness of forest investments.
Generate interest in improving the climate for investments.
Country’s IAIF performance.
IV- PROMECIFIV- PROMECIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 38
PROMECIF’s three phases
I: Country identification and commitment to
change.
II: Diagnosis and strategy definition.
III: Implementation, follow-up, and
evaluation.
IV- PROMECIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 39
Phase I: Country identification and commitment to change
Stakeholders share objective of developing and implementing a plan to improvement of their country’s business climate for forest investments.PROMECIF’s Phase I main objective is to construct this ambience.
IV- PROMECIFIV- PROMECIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 40
Phase I: Country identification and commitment to change
OthersOthersIADBIADB GovernmentGovernment Forest sector stakeholdersForest sector stakeholders
IAIFIAIF Motivators among stakeholdersMotivators in government
Other Motivators
Prom
otio
n
Commitment to changeCommitment to change
Iden
tific
atio
n
Creation of a Steering Committee (SC)Creation of a Steering Committee (SC)
Com
mittee
Willingness to improve direct investments in forest sectorWillingness to improve direct investments in forest sector
IV- PROMECIFIV- PROMECIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 41
Phase I: Country identification and commitment to change
Steering Committee (SC)– The Steering Committee will be responsible for the
coordination of PROMECIF’s phases II and III.
– Sub commission of a Competitiveness Commission --Steering Committee’s role.
IV- PROMECIFIV- PROMECIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 42
Phase I: Country identification and commitment to change
IADB Support– The country’s government should be the official
interlocutor.– A letter of commitment has to be signed by the
appropriate government agency and IADB.
IV- PROMECIFIV- PROMECIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 43
Phase II: Diagnosis and strategy definition
IAIF Analysis IAIF Real/Potential Max/DiferentialComplementary
analysisComplementary
analysis
Expected future situation
Expected future situation
Desired future situation
Desired future situation
Problems and opportunities
Systemic relationships and strategic intervention alternatives
Action PlanAction Plan
Dia
gnos
isSt
rate
gyIV- PROMECIFIV- PROMECIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 44
Phase II: Diagnosis and strategy definitionIAIF – Real – Potential Maximum - Differential
IV- PROMECIFIV- PROMECIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 45
The case for Nicaragua (2002)
IV- PROMECIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 46
Phase II: Diagnosis and strategy definition
Complementary analysis– Information gathering.
– Dynamic analysis of factors that explain the climate for investments in sustainable forest businesses.
– Definition of expected future situation.
– Definition of desired future situation.
– Identification and analysis of problems and opportunities.
IV- PROMECIFIV- PROMECIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 47
Phase III: Implementation, follow-up, and evaluation
Planned Actions
FinancingAlternatives
ProjectanalysisProjects approval
and implementation
ResultsProcesses
Executors SC IndependententityIAIF
Other StrategicIndicators
Executors SC
Impl
emen
tatio
nFo
llow
-up
Self
Eva
luat
ion
IV- PROMECIFIV- PROMECIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 48
Phase III: Implementation, follow-up, and evaluation
Implementation comprises the identification of financial alternatives and the detailed analysis of the projects related to the planned actions.
Executers and the Steering Comitee will be responsible for follow-up and evaluation. An independent entity may also be used.
IV- PROMECIFIV- PROMECIF
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Inter-American Development Bank # 49
Recent developments
IDB licensed FGV and INCAE to calculate the IAIF every two years and to provide associated goods and services to governments and the private sectorIAIF 2004 will be presented in a event latter this yearPROMECIF is being (or about to be) applied in: Paraguay, Panama, and Equator.IAIF-BRAZIL: Index will be adjusted and calculated for Brazil’s states.Development of Sub-Indices for plantations and natural forests.
IV- Evolution
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Inter-American Development Bank # 50
Potential partners
– Multilateral Banks: Asian Development Bank; African Development Bank; World Bank
– UN related agencies: FAO; ITTO– World Economic Forum Indexes partners
IV- Evolution