Foresight Training Day 2 Foresight Methods · Electrolysis Gasification of biomass Liquid H2...

Foresight Training Day 2

Planning Foresight and Methods

Raija Koivisto & Mikko Dufva, VTT – Foresight and Socio-Technical Change

Totti Könnölä, Impetu Solutions

Christian Peña-Ratinen, Fingroup

http://www.impetusolutions.com/

VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND

RECAP OF DAY 1



Conceptos clave

La prospectiva

Transición

Innovación

Escenarios

Visión

Sendero

Gobernanza

3



SU VISIÓN DESEABLE Y

CREÍBLE DE ANTOFAGASTA




5

Visión es un objetivo deseable y creíble dando la dirección a una estrategia.

Incluye dimensiones: sociales, políticas, industriales y tecnológicas.

•VISIÓN •PRESE

NTE

Visión



METHODS - Q&A

Mikko Dufva, VTT



Results from the questionnaire

7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7



Expert panels

• Group of 10-20 individuals from different disciplines deliberate on the future of a given topic

What

• Determine topic

• Select experts

• Method of engagement: phone, meetings, online etc.

• Discussion and reaching consensus

• Dissemination

How

• Helps gather and synthesize relevant information

• Stimulates new insights & ideas

• Networking

Why

8



Expert panels

Strengths

Brings together different

actors and views

Wide perspective on issues.

May uncover potential

innovations or unforeseen

risks.

Fast feedback.

Improves output quality of

final reports.

Weaknesses

Experts can be wrong

Groupthink

Missing weak signals

Different group may offer

different advice.

Costly and time consuming

Problems with group

dynamics

Dominating personalities

Lack of commitment

Sticking with an opinion

9



Stakeholder analysis

10

Keep satisfied

Monitor

Encage closely

Keep informed

Power

Interest High Low

Low

High



Decision modeling

11

Source: Marttunen, M 2011: Interactive multicriteria decision analysis in

the collaborative management of watercourses



INTRODUCTION TO METHODS

Mikko Dufva, VTT



Different methods for different needs

Diagnosis: Understanding where we are

Scanning, SWOT, Patent analysis

Prognosis: Foresighting what could happen

Scenarios, Futures wheel, Delphi, Roadmapping, Trend impact

analysis

Prescription: Deciding what should be done

Backcasting, Key & critical technologies

Many methods can be used for different purposes

roadmapping for understanding where we are and what could

happen.



Qualitative vs. quantitative

Qualitative: Methods providing meaning and interpretations

Backcasting, Scenarios, Surveys, Scanning, Interviews

Semi-quantitative: Methods that quantify subjectivity and judgements

Delphi, Multi-criteria analysis, Roadmapping

Quantitative: Methods measuring variables, using statistical analyses and

generating data

• Patent analysis, Trend extrapolation, Bibliometrics



Exploratory vs. normative

Exploratory: What are the various

possible futures?

SWOT, Scenarios, Delphi

Normative: How could a specific

future be reached or avoided?

Roadmapping, backcasting

What sort of socio-economical

opportunities and threaths for

Antofagasta would emerge from the

developments in nanotechnology in the

next 10-20 years?

What would need to be done today to

achieve a high level of success for

Antofagasta’s reseach and industrial

capacities in nanotechnology in the next

10-20 years?

• Division is not clear; e.g. brainstorming can be both exploratory and

normative

• Normative methods need exploratory to feed them information



Foresight for Security Research, FOR-LEARN workshop Düsseldorf Germany – 19-

04-2007

Methods within FOR-LEARN Online Guide Methods & Tools Diagnosis Prognosis Prescription Quantitative Qualitative Normative Exploratory Predictive Open

Environmental Scanning & Watching

XX X X

System Dynamics XX X X X X

Structural Analysis (e.g. MICMAC)

XX X X X X

Agent Modelling (e.g. MACTOR) XX X X X

SWOT Analysis XX X X X X

Trend Intra & Extrapolation X XX X X X X

Modelling & Simulation X XX X X X

Gaming X XX X X X

Creativity Methods (Brainstorming, Mindmapping…)

X XX X X X X X

Expert Panels XX X X X X X

Delphi survey X X X X X X XX X

Backcasting X XX X X X X

S&T Roadmapping X X X XX X X

Critical & Key Technology Study X X XX X X X X

Scenario Building XX X X X X

Morphological Analysis & Relevance Trees

XX X X X X

Cross-Impact Analysis (e.g. SMIC)

XX X X X X

Multi-Criteria Analysis (e.g. MULTIPOL)

XX X X X X



Foresight diamond

Popper, R. (2008) Foresight Methodology, in Georghiou, L., Cassingena, J., Keenan, M., Miles, I. and

Popper, R. (eds.), The Handbook of Technology Foresight, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, pp. 44-88.

Creativity-based methods rely on

• Imagination & original thinking

• Inspiration emerging from group work

Expertise-based methods rely on

• Experiences and knowledge sharing

Interaction-based methods rely on

• Bringing people together

• Discussion & knowledge exchange

Evidence-based methods rely on

• Facts and data



Europe’s Top 10 Foresight Methods

SWOT

Futures Workshops

Extrapolation

Literature review

Scenarios

Expert panels

Brainstorming

Delphi

Interviews

Other methods

Popper et al (2007)

0 20 40

Technology Roadmapping

Structural analysis (e.g. MICMAC)

Essays

Key Technologies

Stakeholder Mapping

Backcasting

Citizens Panels

Megatrend Analysis

Delphi

Environmental Scanning

Interviews

Trend Extrapolation

Questionnaire / Survey

SWOT Analysis

Brainstorming

Futures Workshops

Other methods

Expert Panels

Scenarios

Literature Review

Common Methods in Regional Foresight



Classes of Foresight methods

Criteria Methods

1. Methods based on eliciting expert

knowledge to develop long term

strategies

− Delphi method

− Experts panels

− Brainstorming

− Mindmapping

− Scenario analysis workshops

− SWOT analysis

2. Quantitative methods that make use

of statistics and other data

− Trend extrapolation

− Simulation modelling

− Cross impact analysis

− System dynamics

3. Methods to identify key points of

action to determine planning

strategies

− Critical/ key technologies

− Relevance trees

− Morphological analysis

(IPTS, 2009)



Three Examples (from Pr. Ron Johnston, Australian Centre for Innovation, Sydney, Australia)

Roadmapping Delphi Scenario

Time

Horizon 3-10 3-10 5-50

Type of

Future Preferred Likely Possible

Numbers 10-20 >100 30

People Experts + planners Experts Experts +

stakeholders

Logistics Simple Complex Fairly simple

Facilitated Probably No Yes

Key

Challenge Expert engagement Topic Preparation

Shareholder

engagement



COMBINAR MÉTODOS EN LA

PROSPECTIVA

Totti Könnölä, impetu Solutions



Integración de perspectivas diversas

(Könnölä, 2011)



La prospectiva nórdica de energía H2

(Nordic H2 Energy Foresight, 2006)



Taller de Escenarios

”Big vision”:

hydrogen’s share

of the total energy

consumption

(excl. industry)

•

• • •P2

•Big vision

•18%

• • •P •– • Primacy of

•Politics •

• • • •E1

•Big vision

•15%

•

•E •– • Energy •Entrepreneurs •and Smart

•Policies •

• •B3

•Big vision

•7%

• • • •B •– • Big Business

•Is Back •

•3. A sm •ooth path

•to the future •

•2. Undisputable

•CO •2 • problems •

•1. Hydrocarbon

•scarcity •

•Developments • •2015 •- •30 •

• •External sce •- •narios • •2003 •- •15 •

•H2 introduction

•- difficult

•- intermediate

•- easy

•Oil prices




Taller de Visión

•Production and distribution of H2

•101

•102

•103

•104

•105 •106

•107

•108 •109

•110

•111

•112

•113

•115

•117

•118

•119

•120 •122 •123 •114 •116

•0

•1

•2

•3

•4

•5

•0 •1 •2 •3 •4 •5

•Nordic Market Potential 2030

•Te

ch

nic

al F

ea

sib

ilit

y 2

03

0

•Ranking of technology visions

•111 Wind power for H2

•112 H2 from reform of natural gas

•118 Energy production from RE

•119 Gasification of biomass

•Corresponding rankings for technology visions related to

•- hydrogen uses in transport

•- stationary uses of hydrogen




Taller de Hojas de Ruta

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Production and transmission

H2 from NG

Electrolysers

NG seq. & H2 Central sequestration and H2 pipeline

H2 grid

New nuclear power in Finland?

10% H2 in NG grid

from local resources

Small decentral storage

NG grid

expanded

H2 filling stations based on local prod.

Electrolysis

Gasification of biomass

Liquid H2 Cryogenic tanks

First large scale plant

as buffer (wind)

Methanol?

300,000 GWh/y (Nordic)

Greenland: 1,400 GWh/y

Today 1,000MW, 2eurocent/kWh

Wind H2

New large scale hydro in Greenland and Iceland

Ship transport of H2

Large scale transport of H2 to storage

Electrical production from photovolt

Small scale biological H2

Biomass gasifiers

Small NG reformers, detailed

Automation,

compressors, pipelines

H2 for transport

Wind turbines

H2 for stationary use

H2 Nordpool

Reversal FC??

Target>

15% H2

NG: 50-70

RES and Nuclear:

50-30

Technology

Equipment Markets

Small scale & decentral

H2 production

•Scenario B3:

•NG 70%, RES (and nuclear) 30%

•Scenario E1 & P2:

•NG 50%, RES (and nuclear) 50%




La Prospectiva Nórdica de TIC

WP1

Preliminary studies

WP1

Preliminary studies

WP3

SWOT analyses

WP3

SWOT analyses

WP9

Reporting

WP9

Reporting

WP10

Nordic conference

WP10

Nordic conference

WP

2

We

b-s

ite &

in

form

ati

on

WP

2

We

b-s

ite &

in

form

ati

on

Selection of focus

areas and applications

WP7

Action workshop

WP7

Action workshop

WP6

Roadmap workshop

WP6

Roadmap workshop

National seminars

WP

11

Eva

lua

tio

n

WP

11

Eva

lua

tio

n

WP4

Scenario

and vision

workshop

WP4

Scenario

and vision

workshop

(Nordic ICT Foresight, 2007)



Combinación de escenarios y áreas temáticas

User acceptance

Business

paradigm

”Harmony”

”Conflict”

Open

source

Scenario 1:

ICT for Security’s Sake

Scenario 2:

The Nordic Mystique

Scenario 4:

Big Business Lock-In

Scenario 3:

Elite Users’ Paradise

EU

China

USEU

China

USEU

China

USEU

China

US

EU

China

USEU

China

US EU

China

USEU

China

US

Lock-in

(Information)

Security

(Information)

Security

Experience

economy

Experience

economyProduction

economy

Production

economy

HealthHealth




Un Modelo de Hoja de Ruta Socio-técnica

2006 2007 20132008 2011 2012 2015201420102009

Science and

education level

Technology

level

Business and

industry level

Market

level

Government

level

Vision 3

Vision 2

Vision 4

Vision 5

Vision 1

2006 2007 20132008 2011 2012 20152014201020092006 2007 20132008 2011 2012 20152014201020092006 2007 20132008 2011 2012 2015201420102009

Science and

education level

Technology

level

Business and

industry level

Market

level

Government

level

Vision 3Vision 3

Vision 2Vision 2

Vision 4Vision 4

Vision 5Vision 5

Vision 1Vision 1



Facing the Future: Scanning, Synthesizing and

Sense-Making in Horizon Scanning

Totti Könnölä1, Ahti Salo2, Cristiano Cagnin3,

Vicente Carabias3, and Eeva Vilkkumaa2

1Impetu Solutions, Madrid (Spain)

2Aalto University School of Science and

Technology, Espoo (Finland)

3JRC-IPTS, Seville (Spain)

The 4th International Seville Conference on

Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

12 & 13 May 2011



1. Identificación de temas

Selección de 6 áreas

Revisión de informes

2. Generación y evaluación de temas emergentes

Cuestionario

Análisis multicriterio

3. Síntesis horizontal y recomendaciones

Talleres Formalización de recomendaciones

Escaneo del horizonte (entorno)

(Könnölä et al., 2011)



WORLD CAFÉ: CREATIVE

FORESIGHT METHODS



World Café - 4 creative foresight methods

Mindmap

Futures Wheel

STEEP

SWOT

33



PLANIFICACIÓN DE LA

PROSPECTIVA*


*Basado en ‘FORLEARN Online Guide’



La prospectiva temática:

Trabajos de grupo

Planificación

En el taller:

Desarrollo y presentación del

borrador del plan

Después del taller:

Elaboración del plan

Comentarios del profesor

Presentación en un seminario

Aplicación de métodos

En el taller

Conductores y escenarios

(aplicación de un método

creativo)

Visión

Hoja de ruta

Después del taller

Voluntario

35



Desarrollo del plan en el taller

Martes

15:00 – 16:00 Viabilidad, enfoque y objetivo

16:10 – 17:00 Métodos

Miércoles

9:30 – 10:40 Ejecución y seguimiento

36



Selección de un coordinador y un secretario

por cada grupo temático

Coordinador

• El en taller dirige y enfoca las conversaciones y controla el

tiempo.

• Después del taller coordinará el trabajo online de grupo y las

contribuciones de participantes.

Secretario

• En el taller toma notas con el ordenador y prepara las

presentaciones.

• Después del taller tendrá la responsabilidad de compilar el

informe y la presentación finales.

37



Planificación de la Prospectiva

Viabilidad

Enfoque y objetivos

Métodos Ejecución

Seguimiento

38 (Modificado de ‘FORLEARN Online Guide’)



Hitos clave en la planificación de la prospectiva

1. Evaluación de viabilidad: ¿Es la prospectiva una aproximación

apropiada en este contexto? ¿Quienes son los interesados (clientes,

participantes, usuarios finales) y qué initiativas estratégicas existen?

¿Genera valor añadido obvio y es posible vincularla con la acción?

2. Definir el enfoque y los objetivos: ¿Cuáles son el enfoque y los

objetivos del proyecto? ¿De qué temas y de cuál zona geográfica se

trata? ¿Qué grupos de interés tienen que involucrarse? ¿Hasta qué

fecha se hace el análisis al futuro? ¿Cuánto tiempo dura el proyecto?

3. Elegir los métodos: ¿Considerando el contexto, enfoque y objetivos,

qué métodos son apropiados? ¿Cómo combinarlos? ¿Qué método

alimenta a cuál?

4. Ejecución del proyecto: ¿Cómo asegurar qué el proyecto se ejecuta a

tiempo? ¿Cómo asegurar la participación extensa de los grupos de

interés y su compromiso en la acción? ¿Cómo prepararse para los

cambios inesperados?

5. Seguimiento: ¿Comó asegurar qué el proyecto va a alcancar sus

objetivos? ¿Los resultados serán plausibles, útiles e informativos? ¿El

proceso va a crear oportunidades de aprendizaje y nuevas redes de

contacto? ¿Cómo asegurar que los resultados son relevantes para la

toma de decisiones? ¿Comó evaluar si el proyecto ha sido exitoso?

39 (Könnölä, 2012)


Foresight Training Day 2 Foresight Methods · Electrolysis Gasification of biomass Liquid H2...

Documents

Transcript of Foresight Training Day 2 Foresight Methods · Electrolysis Gasification of biomass Liquid H2...