Foreign Competition, Mainly The Apparel Industry.

1

An Economic Perspective on the Prospects for HVACR:

A Future in the Green Economy

Richard J. HoldenRegional Commissioner, San FranciscoBureau of Labor Statistics

March 17, 2008

2

Today’s Presentation

The Economy and Jobs: A Long View

Some Factors in Play in a Green Economy

Occupational Aspects– Projections– Earnings Prospects

3

Employment Outlook: 2006-16

Present underlying assumptions and model-based findings

Projections are based on a long-term view of the economy

Assumes a long-run full-employment economy

10 year projection; updated every two years

4

Projections process

LaborForce

Aggregate Economy

Industry Output

Industry Employment

Occupational Demand

Industry FinalDemand

5


Labor force Economic growth Industry employment Occupational employment

6

Live births, 1920-2006

0

1

2

3

4

5

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Baby boomers

Millions of births

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

7

Immigration has been rising since WWII

8.8

5.7

4.1

0.5

1.0

2.5

3.3

4.5

7.3

9.1

7.2

1901-1910 1911-1920 1921-1930 1931-1940 1941-1950 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2006

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Millions of immigrants

8

Population growth rates

0.91.01.2

2.0

1.6

1.1

1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-2000 2006-16

Annual rates of change

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Projected

Civilian non-institutional population, age 16 and over

9

Population and labor force

Millions of persons

134

201

151

229

164

251

1996 2006 2016 1996 2006 2016

Population Labor force


ProjectedProjected

10

13.1

8.5

1996-2006 2006-16

Millions of persons

Labor force growth

134151

164

1996 2006 2016

Percent change


Projected Projected

11

Population and labor force pyramid, 2006

Labor force

Population


12 10 8 6 4 02 12108640 2

80+75-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2416-1910-15

5-90-4

Men WomenAgeMillions

12

Population and labor force pyramid, projected 2016

12 10 8 6 4 02

Labor force

Population


12108640 2

80+75-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2416-1910-15

5-90-4

Men WomenAgeMillions

13

The baby boom and labor force participation rates, 1996, 2006, and projected 2016

Baby boomers in 2016

Percent


Projected 2016

2006

1996

0

20

40

60

80

100

16 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74

14

Labor force participation rates


Percent

73.572.3

85.5

59.4 59.2

36.9

0

20

40

60

80

100

1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2016

Total

Men

Women

Projected

199960%

15

Long-term growth rate of the labor force, by decade

0.80.9

1.31.6

2.6

1.7

1.1

1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-2000 2000-05 2006-16

Average annual rates of change

Projected


16

46

8796

77

96 98

20

70

88

63

91 92

16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

1950 2006

Labor force participation rates of men

Percent


17

Labor force change by age cohort

Projected change in thousands, 2006-16


-1,542

4,716

-2,194

-63

7,304

4,58265 and over

55 to 64

45 to 54

35 to 44

25 to 34

16 to 24

18

Share of the labor force by age cohort

16

25

27

20

12

15

22

24

23

17

13

23

21

21

23

1996 2006 2016

55 and older

45 to 54

35 to 44

25 to 34

16 to 24


Percent distribution

Projected

19

Civilian labor force participation rates of men and women aged 55-64

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996 2004

Women

Men

Percent


20

Civilian labor force participation rates of men and women aged 65-69

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1976 1983 1990 1997 2004

Percent

Women

Men


21

Labor force by race

2.34.411.4

81.8

2.95.312.3

79.6

White Black Asian All other

2006

Projected 2016


Percent of labor force

22

Share of the labor force, by ethnicity

86.3

13.7

83.6

16.4

Hispanic Other than Hispanic

2006

Projected 2016


Percent of labor force

23

Demographic changes, projected 2006-2016

Projected slowdown of labor force growth

Retirement of the baby boom generation

Increasing diversity of the U.S. workforce

Significantly higher levels of immigration than in the last twenty years

24


Labor forceEconomic growth Industry employment Occupational employment

25

Selected economic variables


GDP(Annual growthrate, projected

2006-16)

Unemploymentrate, 2016

(Assumed)

Productivity(Annual growthrate, projected

2006-16)

2.8

5.0

2.2

26

Historic and projected GDP growth rates

2.83.1

2.93.3

2.9

4.2

3.6

1946-56 1956-66 1966-76 1976-86 1986-96 1996-2006 2006-16

Annual rates of change Civilian non-institutional population, age 16 and over


Projected

27

Unemployment rate

5.04.6

5.4

7.07.7

3.84.1

1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2016

Percent


Projected

28

2.8

1.5

2.2

2.62.7

2.2

1986-96 1996-06 2006-16 1986-96 1996-06 2006-16

InflationLabor

Productivity

Inflation and labor productivity


Average annual percent change

Projected Projected

29

Highlights: Economic growth

Continuing economic growth Business investment and

export growth Productivity growth that is still

high by historical standards

30


Labor force Economic growthIndustry output and

employment Occupational employment

31

Job growth can be viewed in two ways


Employment Numerical change Percent change

General freight truckingGambling industries

1166

113,000 90,300

1,003,000

137,000

2006 Projected 2006-16 Projected 2006-16

32

Total employment and output, 1986-2016

OutputEmployment

Projected

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Total employment (excluding secondary), thousands

Total output, trillions of chained 2000 dollars

33

Total employment

Millions of jobs

151138

166153

2006 2016, 2006 2016,Projected

Total employment Wage and salary employment


Projected

34

Employment growth


Millions of nonagriculture wage and salary jobs

23

97

23

114

22

130

1996 2006 2016, 1996 2006 2016,

Goods-producing

Service-providing

Projected Projected

35

Total employment and output, 2006

Percent


15

76

28

67

Goods-producing Service-providing

Nonagriculture wage and salary employmentOutput

36

Goods-producing sectors; Total employment and output, 2006

Percent


9.4

5.1

0.4

20.3

5.2

1.9

Mining Construction Manufacturing

Nonagriculture wage and salary employment

Output

37

14,92014,197

13,14310,233

8,3638,018

7,6896,235

5,8984,466

3,0552,9182,728

1,011549619

17,55215,319

MiningUtilities

Hospitals, S&LFederal Government

Educational services, privateInformation

Transportation & warehousingWholesale trade

Other servicesConstruction

S&L govt., excl. education & hospitalsFinancial activities

Educational services, S&LLeisure and hospitality

ManufacturingHealth care and social assistance

Retail tradeProfessional and business services

Industry employment

Thousands of nonfarm wage-and-salary jobs, 2006

Service Providing

Goods Producing


38

Fastest-growing industry sectors

7.3

7.4

11.1

10.2

13.5

14.4

14.4

20.9

23.3

27.0

Wholesale trade

State & local gov’t.

Construction

Transportation & warehousing

Other services

Leisure and hospitality

Financial activities

Educational services, private

Professional and business services

Health care and social assistance


Percent change, projected 2006-16

Service Providing

Goods Producing

39

609

496

4,034

1,873

1,434

1,207

843

781

687

4,092

Transportation and warehousing

Educational services, private

Retail trade

Construction

Other services

Financial activities

State and local government, including publiceducation and hospitals

Leisure and hospitality

Health care and social assistance

Professional and business services

Industry sector employment change

Employment change in thousands

Service Providing

Goods Producing


40

718

692

691

643

638

612

534

529

499

489Computer systems design and related

services

Colleges, universities, and professionalschools, public and private

Limited-service eating places

Offices of Physicians

Local government, excluding education andhospitals

Elementary and secondary schools, publicand private

Self-employed workers, primary job

General medical and surgical hospitals,public and private

Employment services

Management, scientific, and technicalconsulting services


Industries with largest employment growth

Employment change in thousands

41

Industries with fastest-growing employment


Percent change

44

46

47

46

50

53

55

66

74

78

Internet publishing and broadcasting

Securities and commodity contracts,brokerages, and exchanges

Facilities support services

Other financial investment activities

Community care facilities for the elderly

Educational support services, public andprivate

Home health care services

Gambling industries

Services for the elderly and persons withdisabilities

Management, scientific, and technicalconsulting services

42

Industry sectors projected to decline

Thousands of jobs


556640

17,237

619549

14,197

609518

12,695

Utilities Mining Manufacturing

1996 2006 2016 Projected

43

-67

-79

-90

-98

-99

-108

-113

-138

-139

-146 Gasoline stations

Printing and related support activities

Motor vehicle parts manufacturing

Department stores

Cut and sew apparel manufacturing

Wired telecommunications carriers

Crop production; primary job

Federal government, excluding postalservice

Office supplies, stationery, and gift stores

Computer and peripheral equipmentmanufacturing

Industries with projected job losses


Employment change in thousands, projected 2006-16

44

Employment in manufacturing, January 1955 to 2016

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

Seasonally adjusted, in thousands

Projected


Note: Shaded areas indicate a recession

45Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Annual average percent change in employment, projected 2006-16

2.8

2.8

2.9

3.1

3.3

3.3

3.9

4.5

5.7

5.9

Software publishers

Specialized design services

Amusement, gambling, and recreation industries

Museums, historical sites, and similar institutions

Computer systems design and related services

Independent artists, writers, and performers

Securities, commodity contracts, and other financialinvestments and related activities

Home health care services

Individual and family services

Management, scientific, and technical consultingservices

Industries with faster-than-average growth in output and employment

46


Labor force Economic growth Industry employmentOccupational employment

47

There are 22 occupational groups

There are 10 occupational groups that are projected to grow faster than average (>13%)

Together, they:

– Accounted for 32% of employment in 2006, and

– Are projected to account for 56% of employment change 2006-16

48

27

14

14

14

15

16

20

22

23

25

Education, training, and libraryoccupations

Protective services

Life, physical, and social science

Building and grounds cleaning andmaintenance

Business and financial operations

Healthcare practitioners

Personal care and service

Community and social services

Computer and mathematical science

Healthcare support



Occupational groups

49

Occupational groups

1312

11

-5-3

5

6

7

8

9

9

10

Production

Farming, fishing, and forestry

Transportation and material moving

Management

Office and administrative support

Sales and related

Installation, maintenance, and repair

Construction and extraction

Architecture and engineering

Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media

Legal

Food preparation and serving related



50

Occupational groups

Thousands of jobs, projected 2006-2016

1,745

1,436

1,423

1,265

1,218

1,094

1,063Business and financial

operations

Personal care andservice

Sales and related

Education, training, andlibrary

Healthcare practitioners

Food preparation andserving

Office andadministrative


51

462

533

541

550

785

822

850

997


Management

Community and social services



Computer and mathematical science

Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance

Healthcare support


Occupational groups


52

Occupational groups

453

305

268

203

145

-29

-528Production


Legal

Life, physical, and social science

Architecture and engineering

Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media

Protective service


53

Employment of service occupations

11

13

17

20

39

Protective service

Healthcare support

Personal care and service



Percent distribution


54

Employment in service occupations

3,163

3,724

4,966

5,745

11,352

Protective services

Healthcare support

Personal care and services



Thousands of employees


55

Percent change in employment, service occupations

13

14

15

22

27


Protective services



Healthcare support

Projected 2006-16


56

Numeric change in employment, service occupations

453

850

997

1,094

1,436

Protective services


Healthcare support



Thousands of employees, projected 2006-16


57

1.7

1.4

2.3

5.0

1.5

2.2

2.3

2.9

4.8

5.2

6.1

7.44.8

0.6

0.2

0.8

0.6

0.2

0.9




Production


Management, business, and financial

Sales and related

Office and administrative support

Professional and related

Service

Job openings due to growth

Net replacement needs

Occupational groups: replacement

needs and employment growth


Millions of jobs, projected 2006-16

58

545

255

773

475

587

413

613

1,282

1,664

1,378

382

557

345

452

50

404

587

280

457

Postsecondary teachers

Janitors and cleaners

Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand

Food preparation and serving workers

Office clerks, general

Registered nurses

Customer service representatives

Waiters and waitresses

Cashiers, except gaming

Retail salespersons

Job openings dueto growth

Net replacementneeds

Occupations with large numbers of job openings due to net replacements



59

Fastest growing occupations


34

35

35

40

41

41

45

49

51

53

Substance abuse and behavioral disordercounselors

Veterinarians

Medical assistants

Makeup artists, theatrical and performance

Personal financial advisors

Veterinary technologists and technicians

Computer software engineers, applications

Home health aides

Personal and home care aides

Network systems and data communicationsanalysts


60

Occupations with the most job growth


587

255

264

345

382

384

389

404

452

545

557

Waiters and waitresses

Bookkeeping, accounting, & auditingclerks

Janitors and cleaners


Home health aides


General office clerks

Food prep/ serving workers


Retail salespersons

Registered nurses

Numerical change in thousands, projected 2006-16

61

-118

-131

-39

-40

-57

-63

-66

-90

-97

-104

Telemarketers

Cutting, punching, and press machinesetters, operators, and tenders, metal and

Electrical and electronic equipmentassemblers

Sewing machine operators

Order clerks

Farmers and ranchers

File clerks

Packers and packagers, hand

Cashiers, except gaming

Stock clerks and order fillers

Occupations with largest employment declines


Numerical change in thousands, projected 2006-16

62

Most new jobs in occupations usually requiring short- or moderate-term on-the-job training



264

345

384

389

404

452

545

557

Bookkeeping, accounting, auditing clerks

Janitors and cleaners, except maids andhousekeeping

Home health aides


Office clerks, general

Combined food preparation and servingworkers, including fast food


Retail salespersons

63

Most new jobs in occupations usually requiring an associate degree or post-secondary vocational award


587

264

115

110

105

77

71

63

52

50

Registered nurses

Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants

Preschool teachers, except special education

Automotive service technicians and mechanics

Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses

Hairdressers, hairstylists, and cosmetologists

Computer support specialists

Fitness trainers and aerobic instructors

Paralegals and legal assistants

Dental hygenists


64

239

150

131

98

92

82

71

70

70

60Self-enrichment education teacher

Police and sheriff's patrol officers

First-line supervisors of construction trades andextraction workers

First-line supervisors/managers of retail salesworkers

First-line supervisors of office and administrativesupport workers

First-line supervisors of food preparation and servingworkers

Cooks, restaurant

Sales representatives, wholesale andmanufacturing, except technical and scientific products

Carpenters

Executive secretaries and administrative assistants



Occupations with large employment growth usually requiring work experience or long-term on-the-job training

65

Top ten occupations generally requiring long-term on-the-job training that are projected to grow faster than average, by earnings

2006 median annual earnings

26,950

30,720

31,510

33,210

34,840

35,560

36,070

36,590

41,060

$46,960

Coaches and scouts

Automotive glass installers and repairers

Recreational vehicle service technicians

Motorboat technicians

Audio and video equipment technicians

Interpreters and translators

Water and liquid waste treatment plantand system operators

Tile and marble setters

Athletes and sports competitors

Boilermakers


66

Top ten occupations generally requiring moderate-term on-the-job training that are projected to grow faster than average, by earnings


31,610

32,020

32,260

32,340

34,250

35,760

36,390

37,110

42,750

$42,750

Police, fire, and ambulance dispatchers

Mechanical door repairers

Locksmiths and safe repairers

Roofers

Surveying and mapping technicians

Sales and related workers, all others

Correctional officers and jailers

Brokerage clerks

Cargo and freight agents

Advertising sales agents


67

Top ten occupations generally requiring an associate degree that are projected to grow faster than average, by earnings


42,300

43,040

47,420

48,170

57,160

57,280

62,300

62,800

66,170

$68,570

Cardiovasculartechnologists/technicians

Paralegals and legalassistants

Respiratory therapists

Radiologictechnologists/technicians

Diagnostics medicalsonographers

Registered nurses

Nuclear medicinetechnologists

Dental hygienists

Radiation therapists

Computer specialists, allother


68

Top ten occupations generally requiring short-term on-the-job training that are projected to grow faster than average, by earnings


22,060

22,670

22,900

25,020

25,090

25,740

25,950

26,990

29,050

$30,630

Physical therapist aides

Residential advisors

Receptionists and information clerks

Occupational therapist aides

Building cleaning workers, all other

Costume attendants

Medical equipment repairers

Healthcare support workers, all other

Billing and account collectors

Sailors and marine oilers


69

14

21

41

34

46

83

99

140

146

226

Environmental engineers

Computer specialists, all other

Database administrators

Industrial engineers

C ivil engineers

Network and computer systemsadministrators

Computer software engineers,systems software

Network systems and datacommunications analysts

Computer systems analysts

Computer software engineers,applications

Computer and engineering high growth, high earnings occupations projected to have the most new jobs


Employment change (In thousands)

70

Health-related (associate degree or less) high growth, high earnings occupations projected to have the most new jobs



587

384

264

105

91

50

23

30

21

20Physical therapist assistants

Surgical technologists

Respiratory therapists

Radiologic technologists andtechnicians

Dental hygienists

Pharmacy technicians

Licensed practical and licensedvocational nurses

Nursing aides orderlies and attendants

Home health aides

Registered nurses

71

Education-related high growth, high earnings occupations projected to have the most new jobs



382

115

60

43

29

28

16

19

13

11Adult literacy, remedial education, and

GED teachers and instructors

Education administrators, preschool andchildcare center/ programs

Special education teachers, middleschool

Education administrators, postsecondary

Kindergarten teachers, except specialeducation

Instructional coordinators

Special education teachers, preschool,kindergarten, and elementary school

Self-enrichment education teachers

Preschool teachers, except specialeducation


72

Repair, maintenance, production, and transportation high growth, high earnings occupations projected to have the most new jobs


Employment change

193

140

110

32

25

21

23

13

10Airline pilots, copilots, and flight

engineers

Aircraft mechanics and servicetechnicians

Automotive body and related repairers

First-line supervisors of transportationoperators

Bus drivers, transit and intercity

Bus and truck mechanics and dieselengine specialists

Automotive service technicians andmechanics

Maintenance and repair workers, general

Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer

73

Construction-related high growth, high earnings occupations projected to have the most new jobs


Employment change

150

77

54

53

25

20

22

12

11Security and fire alarm systems

installers

Tile and marble setters

Construction and building inspectors

Roofers

Cement masons and concretefinishers

Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters

Painters, construction andmaintenance

Construction managers

Carpenters

74

Factors Affecting HVAC Employment

Energy Costs Policy Initiatives—GH Gas

Initiatives Building Stock Replacement Demand Completers Regional Differences

75

Residential Prices Will Stay High

Residential Energy Prices, 2006-2030

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029

Electricity

Natural Gas

Distillate Fuel Oil

Liquefied Petroleum Gases

76

Non-Mall Buildings by Activity, 2003

Buildings by Activity, 2003

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Education ....................

Food Sales ...................

Food Service .................

Health Care ..................

Inpatient ..................

Outpatient .................

Lodging ......................

Retail (Other Than Mall)......

Office .......................

Public Assembly ..............

Public Order and Safety ......

Religious Worship ............

Service ......................

Warehouse and Storage ........

Other ........................

Vacant .......................

Number

77

Buildings by Age of Construction

Non-Mall Buildings by Age330, 7%

527, 11%

562, 12%

579, 12%

731, 16%

707, 15%

876, 20%

334, 7%

Before 1920 ..................

1920 to 1945 .................

1946 to 1959 .................

1960 to 1969 .................

1970 to 1979 .................

1980 to 1989 .................

1990 to 1999 .................

2000 to 2003 .................

78

69.3% 67.5%

30.7% 32.5%

All Occupations HVAC Mechanics andInstallers

Job opening gue to growth

Job openings due toreplacement

Occupational groups: replacement

needs and employment growth


Projected Growth for 2006-16

79

15,839

7,864

5,494

2,226

255Associate + Some

College

Associate

Certification 2

Certification 1

Total

HVAC Program Completers by Degree


National (2005 – 2006)

80

HVAC Occupational Employment Projections and Wages by State

New York (20,053)

Nevada (2,792)

Ohio (11,720)

Florida (30,990)

Texas (30,950)

California (22,200)

$30,000

$32,000

$34,000

$36,000

$38,000

$40,000

$42,000

$44,000

$46,000

$48,000

10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Projected Employment Change

Med

ian

An

nu

al W

age

U.S. HVAC

Employment

2006 Wages - $37,660

Employment Change –

19.0%

2016 Employment –

321,058

81

Top paying states for HVAC installers and mechanics

StateEmploy-

ment

Hourly mean wage

Annual mean wage

Percent of State employment

Alaska 370 $25.68 $53,410 0.12%

District of Columbia 410 $23.80 $49,490 0.07%

Massachusetts 6,330 $23.53 $48,950 0.20%

New Jersey 7,850 $23.22 $48,300 0.20%

Minnesota 2,650 $22.90 $47,640 0.10%

82

Industries with high employment for HVAC installers and mechanics

Industry Employment

Hourly mean wage

Annual mean wage

Building Equipment Contractors 168,650 $18.54 $38,570

Direct Selling Establishments 12,120 $19.70 $40,980

Hardware, and Plumbing and Heating Equipment and Supplies Merchant

Wholesalers 9,330 $21.10 $43,890

Commercial and Industrial Machinery and Equipment (except Automotive and Electronic) Repair and Maintenance 8,290 $20.69 $43,030

Elementary and Secondary Schools 4,990 $19.12 $39,770

83

Top paying industries for HVAC installers and mechanics

Industry Employment

Hourly mean wage

Annual mean wage

Satellite Telecommunications 50 $29.44 $61,230

Computer and Peripheral Equipment Mfg * $28.31 $58,880

Converted Paper Product Mfg 30 $28.26 $58,780

Scientific Research and Development Services 230 $25.98 $54,040

Aerospace Product and Parts Mfg 260 $25.87 $53,800

* Estimates not released

84

Education and training pay

Unemployment rate in 2006 Median weekly earnings in 2006

1,441

$1,474

1,140

962

721

674

595

419

2.1

2.6

3.3

4.2

4.7

7.6

1.1

1.6

Master’s degree

Bachelor’s degree

Associate degree

Some college, no degree

High school graduate

Less than a high school diploma

Professional degree

Doctoral degree


85

Thank You!

Richard J. HoldenRegional Commissioner, SFBureau of Labor Statistics

[email protected]

86

Top ten highest earning, high growth occupations

$153,940

101,580

80,250

82,180

82,800

85,370

86420

93,950

94,520

98,720

Training and development managers

Public relations managers

Actuaries

Computer software engineers, system software

Industrial-organizational psychologists

Computer and information scientists, research

Pharmacists

Marketing managers

Computer and information systems managers

Physicians and surgeons

2006 Earnings


Percent employment

growth

14

16

14

22

21

28

24

45

17

16

87

Health-related (bachelor’s degree or higher) high growth, high earnings occupations projected to have the most new jobs



90

53

47

23

22

21

8

18

8

4Athletic trainers

Chiropractors

Healthcare practitioners and technicalworkers, all other

Physician assistants

Medical and clinical laboratorytechnologists

Veterinarians

Occupational therapists

Physical therapists

Pharmacists

Physicians and surgeons

Foreign Competition, Mainly The Apparel Industry.

Career

Transcript of Foreign Competition, Mainly The Apparel Industry.